【国联民生海外】英特尔财报调整后观点：Foundry突破 + CPU需求显著放量 英特尔本轮股价回调，核心触发因素在于 1Q 指引偏弱，从业绩会披露的信息看，我们认为Foundry突破 + CPU需 求放量趋势正在加强 一方面，Foundry业务出现实质性突破：18A 已进入量产爬坡阶段，良率与良品率按月改善，18A-P 已向内外部客 户交付 PDK，并推进产品与技术层面的客户接洽。 一方面，Foundry业务出现实质性突破：18A 已进入量产爬坡阶段，良率与良品率按月改善，18A-P 已向内外部客 户交付 PDK，并推进产品与技术层面的客户接洽。 围绕 14A 制程，管理层明确正积极就14A技术与潜在客户接洽，预计客户将在今年下半年就14A技术作出更坚定的 决策。 同时，管理层表示良率正每月稳定提升，体现出可持续的制造改进路径。 围绕 1 【国联民生海外】英特尔财报调整后观点：Foundry突破 + CPU需求显著放量 英特尔本轮股价回调，核心触发因素在于 1Q 指引偏弱，从业绩会披露的信息看，我们认为Foundry突破 + CPU需 求放量趋势正在加强 另一方面，CPU 业务正迎来价格与规模的"双击"。 ...

they could test. >> In fact, let's get more on Intel and bring in VJ Reesh who's a senior semiconductor analyst at Missouo. He has a neutral rating on Intel.You know, it's interesting because they're talking about this supply chain constraint. The CFO told our colleague Christina parts and quote, "We have been improving our supply chain every quarter or supply every quarter rather, but it's not enough. So, we'll leave quite a bit on the table in Q1." How much does that matter, Vich. matters a bit for sure b ...

Core Viewpoint - Intel's stock is down approximately 7.5% following earnings, which were below expectations for Q1 guidance, impacting both top and bottom lines as well as margins [1][2] Financial Performance - The fourth quarter showed strong performance with beats across various metrics, but the Q1 guidance fell short of expectations [2][9] - Foundry revenue exceeded expectations at $4.51 billion, which is crucial for Intel's turnaround strategy [11][15] Supply Chain and Production Challenges - Intel is facing supply constraints, particularly in the data center segment, which is affecting their ability to meet customer demand [6][14] - Production yields for the Panther Lake product are currently at 60%, which is below the company's standards [12] Strategic Focus and Future Outlook - The company's long-term strategy is centered around customer momentum in the foundry business, particularly with major clients like Nvidia and Apple [9][10] - Intel's CEO has emphasized the importance of focusing on core priorities such as AI, data centers, and GPU technology [7][8] Market Dynamics - There is a shift in memory manufacturing away from PC and smartphone memory towards high bandwidth memory for AI data centers, which may limit CPU demand [4][14] - Despite current challenges, there is potential for pent-up demand in the PC market, which may push out into 2027 [15]

Core Viewpoint - The discussion highlights the challenges and potential setbacks faced by Intel in its transition to a foundry model, particularly in relation to its competitors like Nvidia and Apple, while also addressing the broader market conditions affecting the PC segment. Intel's Foundry Transition - Intel is expected to face a longer road ahead in its foundry business, with significant work needed on its 18A process technology and yields [4][7] - The shift from building chips for internal products to becoming a foundry represents a seismic change in Intel's business model [5] - The company has undergone major leadership changes to facilitate this transition, but progress will take time [6] Market Conditions and Challenges - The focus on Intel's foundry progress is primarily around the 14A process, which is aimed at foundry customers, while 18A was developed for internal products [7][8] - The upcoming Panther Lake product is anticipated to be announced at CES, but the competitive landscape against AMD remains challenging [10] - Rising memory costs are expected to increase PC prices, leading to potential demand destruction, which could negatively impact Intel's revenue from its Client Computing Group (CCG) [11][13] Competitive Landscape - AMD has been consistently gaining market share from Intel, adding pressure on Intel's performance in the PC market [10] - The overall market for PCs is projected to be tough in the coming months, which could hinder Intel's growth prospects [11][12]

Core Insights - A new wave of speculation has emerged regarding Intel's foundry ambitions, particularly in relation to Microsoft's plans to manufacture its next-generation Maia AI chip [1] Group 1 - Intel's foundry ambitions are gaining renewed interest due to recent reports [1] - Microsoft is reportedly preparing to manufacture its next-generation Maia AI chip using Intel's foundry services [1]

All right, stocks up after earnings. It's up over 70% since the government announced it took a 10% stake in the chip maker after earnings. How do you feel about not only Intel, but the fact that it has some backing from the government.Do you see a positive uptrend beyond this report. >> Well, the the report came as a relief and maybe a confirmation to investors that the companies and the US government's efforts to turn their fortunes around have paid off in the latest quarter. This being said, as you said, ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3, the company reported revenue of $13.7 billion, exceeding guidance and up 6% sequentially [22][23] - Non-GAAP gross margin was 40%, four percentage points better than guidance, driven by higher revenue and a favorable mix [23] - Earnings per share for Q3 were $0.23, compared to guidance of breakeven EPS, attributed to stronger gross margin and cost discipline [23] - Operating cash flow was $2.5 billion, with gross CapEx of $3 billion and positive adjusted free cash flow of $900 million [23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Intel products revenue was $12.7 billion, up 7% sequentially, supported by strong demand in both client and server segments [25] - Client Computing Group (CCG) revenue was $8.5 billion, up 8% quarter over quarter, driven by a stronger TAM and Windows 11 refresh [25][26] - Data Center and AI (DCAI) revenue was $4.1 billion, up 5% sequentially, driven by improved product mix and higher enterprise demand [26][27] - Intel Foundry revenue was $4.2 billion, down 4% sequentially, but operating loss improved by $847 million due to favorable comparisons [29][30] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted healthy customer purchasing behavior and inventory levels, with industry supply tightening materially [21] - The demand for server CPUs is expected to grow due to the accelerating build-out of AI infrastructure [21][27] - The client consumption total addressable market (TAM) is projected to approach 290 million units in 2025, marking two consecutive years of growth [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on rebuilding its market position through AI and enhancing its x86 architecture to support hybrid compute environments [10][19] - Strategic partnerships, particularly with NVIDIA, are aimed at creating new classes of products that accelerate AI adoption [10][11] - The company is committed to improving its engineering and design execution, including the establishment of a central engineering group to unify functions [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism regarding macroeconomic volatility but noted strong demand driven by AI and traditional compute [21] - The company is focused on shoring up its balance sheet and has secured approximately $20 billion in cash through strategic partnerships [23][24] - Management emphasized the importance of building long-term trust with customers in the foundry business and the need for improved yield and reliability [48][50] Other Important Information - The company is on track to launch its first Pentelic SKU by year-end, with additional SKUs expected in the first half of next year [12] - The company is prioritizing wafer capacity for server shipments over entry-level client parts due to tight supply conditions [33] - The company plans to maintain disciplined capital expenditures while being flexible to respond to demand [62] Q&A Session Summary Question: Foundry collaborations and increased confidence - Management indicated that collaborations, particularly with SoftBank, are enhancing confidence in the foundry business due to increased demand for AI infrastructure [38] Question: Gross margin outlook for 2026 - Management noted that while Altera's absence will be a headwind, they expect improvements in foundry gross margins driven by scale and leading-edge mix [42][44] Question: Customer commitments for foundry investments - Management emphasized the importance of building trust with customers and demonstrating yield improvements to secure commitments for foundry investments [48][50] Question: Supply constraints in server CPUs - Management acknowledged that shortages are widespread, particularly in Intel 10 and 7, and are working to manage demand and inventory [54][55] Question: Demand outlook for 2026 - Management indicated that demand is expected to outpace supply in both server and client markets, with potential improvements anticipated later in the year [60] Question: Investments in CapEx and product businesses - Management stated that the focus remains on deleveraging, but they are open to increasing CapEx if customer demand justifies it [62] Question: Update on NVIDIA relationship - Management highlighted the importance of the collaboration with NVIDIA, which is expected to create new product opportunities in the AI space [91][94]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported Q3 revenue of $13.7 billion, exceeding guidance and up 6% sequentially [19] - Non-GAAP gross margin was 40%, four percentage points better than guidance, driven by higher revenue and a favorable mix [19] - Earnings per share for Q3 were $0.23, compared to guidance of break-even EPS, attributed to higher revenue and stronger gross margin [19] - Operating cash flow was $2.5 billion, with gross CapEx of $3 billion and positive adjusted free cash flow of $900 million [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Intel products revenue was $12.7 billion, up 7% sequentially, supported by strong demand in both client and server segments [21] - Client Computing Group (CCG) revenue was $8.5 billion, up 8% quarter over quarter, driven by a stronger TAM and Windows 11 refresh [22] - Data Center and AI (DCAI) revenue was $4.1 billion, up 5% sequentially, driven by improved product mix and higher enterprise demand [23] - Intel Foundry revenue was $4.2 billion, down 4% sequentially, but operating loss improved by $847 million due to favorable comparisons [25][26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted healthy customer purchasing behavior and inventory levels, with industry supply tightening materially [18] - The client consumption total addressable market (TAM) is expected to approach 290 million units in 2025, marking two consecutive years of growth [23] - Demand for server CPUs is expected to grow due to the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure and underinvestment in traditional infrastructure [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on rebuilding its market position through strategic partnerships, particularly with Nvidia, to enhance AI capabilities [8][25] - A new Central Engineering Group has been created to unify engineering functions and improve product development efficiency [9] - The company aims to position itself as a compute platform of choice for AI inference workloads, emphasizing partnerships with various incumbents and emerging companies [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism regarding macroeconomic conditions and the potential for CPU TAM growth in 2026 [18] - The company is committed to improving its competitive position while navigating supply constraints, particularly in Intel 10 and Intel 7 [19] - Management highlighted the importance of building long-term trust with customers in the Foundry business and emphasized the need for yield improvement and reliability [41] Other Important Information - The company received significant funding from the U.S. government and strategic investments from Nvidia and SoftBank, enhancing its cash position [20] - The company plans to maintain disciplined CapEx while focusing on deleveraging and ensuring that investments align with customer demand [51] Q&A Session Summary Question: Foundry collaborations and increased confidence - Management noted that collaborations, particularly with SoftBank, are expected to drive demand for Foundry services, and progress on 18A and 14A has been promising [32][33] Question: Gross margin outlook for 2026 - Management indicated that while Altera's absence will be a headwind, they expect gross margins to improve due to a better product mix and leading-edge technology [35][36] Question: Demand and supply constraints - Management acknowledged that supply constraints are affecting both client and server products, with a focus on managing inventory and demand shaping [46][47] Question: Transition from older products to AI products - Management emphasized the importance of driving application development for AI PCs and noted that the Windows refresh is contributing to demand for older products [61][62] Question: Update on Nvidia relationship - Management expressed excitement about the collaboration with Nvidia, which is expected to create new product opportunities without cannibalizing existing markets [71][73]

Well, Intel's third quarter earnings are just now hitting the wire. Uh stocks popping more earning than about 4% here. Let's get you the numbers.Uh so, Intel reported 13.7% billion in revenue for the third uh quarter here. That is higher than the 13.15% billion expected by analysts. I'm just looking for the adjusted earnings per share.There it is. 23 cents. That's above what was projected.Uh turning ahead, uh fourth quarter adjusted EPS of 8 cents. that looks like it's less uh than what was estimated. Uh th ...

Core Insights - Intel has experienced a significant rebound, with a 50% increase in stock price, driven by over $18 billion in new funding and strategic partnerships focused on AI and foundry growth [1] Company Analysis - Intel's leadership demonstrates a proven track record in scaling businesses, emphasizing smart capital allocation and insider ownership [1] - The company shows consistent revenue growth and provides credible guidance, indicating strong management practices [1] Market Positioning - Intel benefits from a strong technology moat and first-mover advantage, which are critical for maintaining competitive positioning [1] - The company is leveraging network effects to drive exponential growth and is penetrating high-growth industries [1] Financial Health - Intel exhibits sustainable revenue growth with efficient cash flow management, contributing to its financial stability [1] - The company maintains a strong balance sheet and a long-term survival runway, which are essential for navigating market challenges [1] Investment Strategy - The investment methodology focuses on identifying high-conviction opportunities with a balanced portfolio construction, including core positions, growth bets, and speculative investments [1] - The strategy emphasizes risk management, ensuring a strong margin of safety while maximizing long-term compounding potential [1]