Core Insights - Bitcoin is currently trading around $103,000, with recent investment inflows into US Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) totaling $247 million this week, following a significant outflow of $1.2 billion last week, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [1][2] - The reopening of the US federal government is seen as a key short-term catalyst for Bitcoin's price movement, as traders anticipate important economic indicators that could influence interest rates and fiscal policy [2][4] - The upcoming November 13 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is critical, with expectations that a cooling inflation trend could lead to a liquidity-driven rebound in both crypto and equity markets [3][4] Market Trends - Bitcoin has experienced a 1.8% decline over the past 24 hours, while Ethereum has decreased by 0.7%, reflecting a broader risk-off sentiment among investors [6] - The probability of a December interest rate cut is currently estimated at 55%, a decrease of 8% since earlier in the week, while market betting indicates a 59% chance of a rate cut, down 15% this week [4] Investor Sentiment - Analysts suggest that Bitcoin may consolidate and trade sideways through November, potentially frustrating traders who are anticipating a year-end rally [3][4] - The sentiment among traders is mixed, with some expressing frustration over the current price stagnation and the need for patience before a potential recovery or new record high [3]

Market Performance Recap - The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) surged 0.7%, or approximately 327 points, closing at a record 48,254.82 points, marking its second consecutive record close [2] - The S&P 500 (SPX) gained 0.1%, remaining close to its all-time high [2] - The Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) slipped 0.3%, or 58.87 points, primarily due to weakness in major technology stocks [3] Driving Factors: Shutdown Relief and Economic Signals - Anticipation of a resolution to the 43-day U.S. government shutdown was the primary catalyst for market movements, with the House expected to vote on a spending bill [4] - The ADP employment report indicated an average of 11,250 jobs cut per week through late October, suggesting a cooling job market and increasing expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [5] Major Stock News and Movements - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) surged 9% after projecting robust revenue growth of 35% over the next three to five years [6] - International Business Machines (IBM) rose 0.5%, reaching an all-time high of $324.90, following announcements of breakthroughs in quantum computing [6] - Palantir Technologies (PLTR) fell approximately 5%, impacting the Nasdaq's performance [6] - Major airlines saw gains of 4% to 5% due to hopes of government shutdown resolution, with smaller regional airlines also posting increases [6] - Paramount Skydance (PSKY) was among the biggest decliners, dropping 7% [6] Upcoming Market Events and Earnings - Investors are focused on the final resolution of the government shutdown and the release of U.S. inflation data on November 13, which will influence Federal Reserve policy [7] - Nvidia (NVDA) is set to report earnings on November 19, with retail company performances expected to provide insights into consumer spending [8] Additional Stock Movements - Financial stocks showed strength, with Goldman Sachs Group (GS) up 3.5%, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) gaining 1.4%, and Morgan Stanley (MS) increasing 2% [11] - On Holdings (ONON) shares surged 24% after reporting strong quarterly results, while Perion Network (PERI) jumped 14% after beating Q3 earnings estimates [11] - Stereotaxis (STXS) tumbled 15% after missing Q3 expectations, and Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL) fell 7% despite better-than-expected Q3 results [11]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government shutdown is expected to lead to a quiet week, delaying official data releases, including crucial inflation data for October [1] Group 1 - The ongoing government shutdown will result in the postponement of key economic indicators [1] - There is a lack of private data scheduled for release during this period [1]

Partnership & Program - Truflation 加入 Chainlink Build 项目，旨在加速发展 [1] - Truflation 与 Chainlink 的关系可以用“加速”来形容 [1] Data & Technology - Truflation 致力于向指数提供透明、实时的每日消费者价格和通货膨胀数据 [1]

Core Insights - Inflation data released on Friday contributed to a positive end for the stock market, with Ford shares experiencing a significant increase of 12% [1] Company Summary - Ford shares surged by 12% following the inflation data release, indicating strong market confidence in the company's performance [1]

Economic Data and Government Impact - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is recalling staff to ensure the release of the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report despite a government shutdown, highlighting the critical importance of inflation data for market and policy decisions [3][8] - The Labor Department's Office of the Inspector General has initiated an inquiry into the BLS's methods for collecting and publishing key economic data, including CPI and Producer Price Index (PPI) [3] Federal Reserve Leadership Update - Former Federal Reserve Governor Larry Lindsey has withdrawn his name from consideration for the position of US Federal Reserve Chair, narrowing the field for this crucial leadership role [4][8] Global Currency Fluctuations - The Japanese Yen has weakened to its lowest point against the US dollar since mid-February, while the Euro has also experienced a decline, influenced by political developments and monetary policy expectations [5][8] Corporate Earnings and Industry News - Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI) anticipates a 70 basis point impact to its annual gross margin from tariffs, an increase from a previous estimate of 50 basis points, although 70% of its US holiday inventory is secured [9][8] - In the automotive sector, Toyota (TM) has updated its bZ4X electric vehicle (EV) to boast the longest range among domestic EVs in Japan, indicating the company's ongoing efforts in the competitive EV market [9] Healthcare Policy Developments - Discussions are ongoing between US pharmacies and drug discounters, including GoodRx Holdings Inc. (GDRX), regarding their potential role in the TrumpRx initiative, which aims to provide consumers with access to discounted prescription medications [10] New Zealand Manufacturing Data - The New Zealand BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI for September remained unchanged at 49.9, indicating a continued contraction in the manufacturing sector, as a reading below 50.0 signifies a decline in manufacturing activity [11]

Market Overview - U.S. stock markets are experiencing a pullback, with major indexes declining for three consecutive sessions after reaching record highs earlier in the week, indicating a pause for investors to digest economic data and corporate news [1][10] - The S&P 500 is down approximately 0.6%, the Nasdaq Composite has fallen 0.9%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average shows a modest decline of 0.1%, yet all indexes remain near all-time highs [2] Economic Indicators - The final revision to second-quarter GDP shows an annual growth rate of 3.8%, revised up from 3.3% [3] - Weekly jobless claims fell to a two-month low of 218,000, indicating a resilient labor market [3] - Core capital goods new orders rose by 0.6% month-over-month, exceeding expectations [3] - The 10-year Treasury yield increased to 4.18%, up from 4.15%, which may negatively impact stock prices due to rising borrowing costs [3] Upcoming Economic Data - Investors are awaiting the release of the August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which is crucial for shaping expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [4] Earnings Reports - CarMax (KMX) shares fell nearly 12% after missing second-quarter profit targets, while THOR Industries Inc. (THO) surged 6.1% after exceeding earnings estimates [5] - Other companies reporting earnings include Accenture plc (ACN), Jabil Inc. (JBL), Synnex Corp. (SNX), BlackBerry Limited (BB), and LuxExperience B.V. (LUXE) [5] Notable Stock Movements - Intel (INTC) shares surged nearly 7% following reports of discussions with Apple (AAPL) regarding potential collaboration [6] - IBM (IBM) rose over 5% due to positive news related to quantum computing [7] - Tesla (TSLA) shares declined by 3.5%, while Oracle (ORCL) fell 4.7% for the third consecutive day [7] - Amazon (AMZN) shares decreased after agreeing to a $2.5 billion settlement over deceptive subscription practices [8] - Birkenstock (BIRK) shares jumped close to 5% after pre-announcing strong results, while Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) sank 11.6% due to lower sales forecasts [9] Market Sentiment - The overall market sentiment is cautious as investors weigh strong economic data against potential implications for monetary policy, leading to a rotation out of high-flying tech stocks [10]

Group 1 - Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced significant outflows totaling $439 million, primarily due to investor repositioning around the Federal Reserve's rate cut and anticipation of upcoming inflation data [1][2] - Bitcoin ETFs faced the largest outflows of $363.1 million, with Fidelity's FBTC and ARK 21Shares' ARKB being the most affected, losing $276.7 million and $52.3 million respectively [1][2] - Ethereum funds recorded $76 million in redemptions, led by Fidelity's FETH with $33.1 million, Bitwise's ETHW at $22.3 million, and BlackRock's ETHA at $15.1 million [2] Group 2 - The recent outflows are interpreted as a phase of profit-taking and de-leveraging rather than indicating a structural bear market, as noted by analysts [3][5] - If ETF flows turn positive in the near term, Bitcoin could rebound above $113,000 and Ethereum could approach $4,200; however, persistent outflows may lead Bitcoin to retest $108,000 and Ethereum to drop to $3,900 [4] - Over $354 million in crypto positions were liquidated recently, including $44 million in Bitcoin and $53 million in Ethereum, indicating a significant market adjustment [4] Group 3 - The macro environment for digital assets remains bullish despite short-term bearishness, supported by the Fed rate cut and stock indices at all-time highs [5] - Options traders are optimistic about the fourth quarter, despite the current market turbulence, as indicated by the put-call delta skew reaching its highest since early August [6]

Group 1 - Latest inflation data is not expected to disrupt the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy [1] - Trump is advocating for the removal of Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve Board [1] - Paramount's Skydance is considering a bid for Warner Bros. Discovery [1]

Market Overview - France's CAC 40 index opened modestly higher, reaching a peak of 7,823.34 before settling at 7,778.94, up 29.55 points or 0.38% [2] - The market sentiment remains steady following the appointment of Sébastien Lecornu as the new Prime Minister of France and optimism regarding a potential larger interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] Company Performance - Thales shares increased by more than 3.5% [3] - EssilorLuxottica saw a rise of nearly 3% [3] - Schneider Electric gained 2.2% [3] - Legrand's stock was up nearly 2% [3] - Other companies such as ArcelorMittal, Bouygues, Credit Agricole, Airbus, and Societe Generale experienced gains between 1% to 1.5% [3] - Dassault Systemes, AXA, Vinci, Safran, Vivendi, and Veolia Environment also reported modest gains [3] - Pernod Ricard's stock declined by about 2.5% [3] - Accor, STMicroElectronics, Teleperformance, and Carrefour saw declines between 1.2% to 2% [3] - Kering, Stellantis, Edenred, and L'Oreal also faced notable decreases [3]