Core Viewpoint - Kohl's Corporation experienced a stock price increase following strong third-quarter earnings that exceeded analyst expectations, prompting analysts to raise their price forecasts [1][2]. Earnings Snapshot - The company reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of 10 cents, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of a loss of 20 cents [2]. - Quarterly revenue reached $3.41 billion, exceeding the Street's estimate of $3.32 billion [2]. Guidance and Expectations - Kohl's raised its fiscal 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to $1.25–$1.45 from a previous range of 50–80 cents, compared to the consensus estimate of 71 cents [3]. - The company anticipates a net sales decline of 3.5% to 4% [3]. - Management expects the macroeconomic environment to remain uncertain, with consumers becoming more selective and value-driven, especially among low-to-middle-income groups during the holiday season [4]. Analyst Views - Telsey Advisory Group analyst Dana Telsey maintained a Market Perform rating and increased the price forecast from $16 to $23 due to stronger results and positive business momentum [5]. - The company achieved a third consecutive top- and bottom-line beat for fiscal 2025, with comparable sales improving by 250 basis points sequentially, marking the strongest performance since post-pandemic 2021 [5]. - CEO Michael Bender was named permanent CEO, which is expected to provide continuity and leadership for the company's recovery strategy [6]. Strategic Positioning - The company is well-positioned to capture holiday demand with improved inventory, stronger value assortments, expanded Sephora offerings, and broader promotions aimed at increasing traffic [7]. - Analysts project fiscal 2025 net sales to decline 3.7% year-over-year to $14.81 billion, an improvement from a previous estimate of a 5.3% decline [8]. - Fiscal 2025 EPS is now expected to be $1.42, up from $0.67, while fiscal 2026 EPS has been raised to $1.46 from $0.79 [8]. Market Sentiment - Kohl's has a short float of 29.29 million shares, representing 36.75% of its publicly traded float, indicating a high level of short interest from investors betting on further downside [9]. - At the time of publication, Kohl's shares were up 6.07% at $23.78, reaching a new 52-week high [9].

Core Insights - Crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) experienced significant withdrawals, totaling $2 billion, as investors reacted to rising macroeconomic uncertainty [1] - BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, recorded a single-day withdrawal of $463.1 million on November 14, marking a notable event in the market [1] - The overall assets under management for digital asset ETPs decreased from a peak of $264 billion in early October to $191 billion, reflecting a 27% decline [3] Market Dynamics - The recent wave of redemptions has led to a sharp decline in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETPs, contributing to a total of $3.2 billion in outflows over three consecutive weeks [2][3] - The U.S. was the primary contributor to global outflows, accounting for 97% of the total, approximately $1.97 billion, while Switzerland and Hong Kong followed with $39.9 million and $12.3 million in redemptions, respectively [4] - In contrast, Germany saw inflows of $13.2 million, as investors viewed price weakness as a buying opportunity [5] Future Outlook - ETF flows are expected to remain closely linked to macroeconomic conditions, with potential outflows influenced by negative economic indicators and a hawkish Federal Reserve stance [5] - Conversely, positive developments regarding tariffs, regulatory frameworks, and monetary policy could lead to improved market sentiment and a potential price reversal [6]

Core Insights - Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) reported positive volume growth in Q3 2025, with total volumes increasing by $1.55 billion, contributing 10% to revenue growth, marking a significant recovery from previous declines [1][5] - The recovery was broad-based, with Energy & Transportation leading the increase at $870 million, followed by Construction Industries at $568 million and Resource Industries at $138 million [2][10] - Prior to this growth, CAT faced prolonged weakness, with Construction Industries experiencing seven consecutive quarters of volume declines and Resource Industries eight [3][4] Volume and Revenue Trends - In 2024, CAT experienced a total volume decline of $3.5 billion, followed by a further decline of $1.1 billion in Q1 2025, primarily due to sluggish end-market demand and significant dealer inventory reductions [4] - The company anticipates strong year-over-year sales growth in Q4 2025, supported by improved volumes across all segments, projecting volume growth of 4.7% in 2025 and 5.7% in 2026 [6][10] Industry Context - Competitors like Terex Corporation and Komatsu Ltd. have also faced challenges, with Terex experiencing seven straight quarters of negative organic growth and Komatsu expecting a flat to 5% decline in demand for construction, mining, and utility equipment in fiscal 2025 [7][8] - Despite the macroeconomic uncertainties affecting the industry, CAT's return to volume growth represents a meaningful shift in momentum [5] Stock Performance and Valuation - CAT shares have gained 52.6% year-to-date, slightly underperforming the industry growth of 55.7% [9] - The current forward 12-month price/earnings (P/E) ratio for CAT is 25.96X, compared to the industry average of 24.75X [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a year-over-year earnings decline of 16.03% for 2025, with a revenue increase of 2%, while 2026 estimates show an 18.4% growth in earnings and a 7.7% rise in revenues [12]

Core Viewpoint - Cava Group has revised its full-year sales growth targets downward due to stagnant foot traffic in Q3, reflecting a trend of consumers cutting back on fast casual dining amid financial pressures [1] Company Summary - Cava CFO Tricia Tolivar indicated that despite the financial strain on consumers, the chain is becoming more accessible to lower-income customers, which has led to an increase in sales in that demographic [1] - The discussion on Bloomberg Businessweek Daily highlighted the company's growth strategy in the context of ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated revenue for Q3 2025 was $138 million, a decline of 7% compared to the same period last year [10] - SG&A expenses were reduced by 7%, amounting to $48 million, maintaining SG&A as a percentage of sales at 35% [11][12] - EBITDA for the quarter was $7.5 million, up sequentially from $6.1 million but down from $11.7 million year-over-year [13] - Net income was $2.7 million, an increase from $1.6 million in the previous quarter but down from $5.4 million in the same quarter last year, resulting in earnings per diluted share of $0.18 [13][14] Business Segment Data and Key Metrics Changes - Branded products segment revenue was $85 million, down from $93 million year-over-year, impacted by order timing and lower sales volume [10][11] - Healthcare apparel revenue declined by 5% to $32 million due to lower volume amid customer uncertainty [10][11] - Contact center revenue decreased by 9% to $23 million, driven by lower volume and customer downsizing [10][11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The overall market remains uncertain, affecting customer behavior and order placements across all segments [4][18] - There is a significant level of caution among customers, leading to promising near-term opportunities in the pipeline as trade policies and economic conditions stabilize [4][18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding market share in a fragmented market by recruiting more sales representatives and leveraging software automation [6] - Investments are being made in demand-driven activities while maintaining expense discipline to navigate economic uncertainties [8][15] - The company is actively exploring acquisition opportunities, particularly in the branded products segment, to enhance growth [42][44] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that while the growth environment is subdued, the pipeline remains strong, and they are focused on converting these opportunities [15] - The company is optimistic about future growth as economic uncertainty dissipates, allowing for the capture of additional market share [15] - Management expressed confidence in the ability to pass through cost increases to customers, maintaining pricing power despite economic challenges [30][32] Other Important Information - The company tightened its full-year revenue outlook to a range of $560 million to $570 million, indicating slight growth year-over-year at the high end of the range [14] - The balance sheet remains strong with $17 million in cash and cash equivalents, providing over $100 million in liquidity for growth plans [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you describe the environment for branded products? - Management indicated that the market has been challenged due to tariffs and macroeconomic uncertainty, but recent tariff announcements are seen as positive [18][19] Question: Where are you in working off the inventory purchased in advance? - The company has been opportunistic in sourcing inventory from lower tariff jurisdictions and has communicated with clients about inventory management [22][23] Question: What is the impact of losing a client in the contact center? - The annualized impact from the lost client is about a couple of million dollars, but there are opportunities for growth in the pipeline [26] Question: Can you talk about your pricing power? - The company has been able to pass through cost increases to customers, maintaining pricing power despite economic pressures [30][32] Question: What are your expectations for revenue growth in Q4? - Revenue growth is expected to be primarily driven by the branded products segment, with strong bookings and a robust pipeline [34][40] Question: What are the acquisition opportunities currently? - The company sees a rich field for acquisitions, particularly in the branded products segment, and is actively evaluating potential deals [42][44]

Core Viewpoint - E-commerce firm eBay has forecasted lower-than-expected profits for the upcoming holiday quarter due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, leading to an 8.5% drop in its shares after the announcement [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - eBay reported third-quarter revenue of $2.82 billion and adjusted profit of $1.36 per share, both exceeding Wall Street estimates of $2.73 billion and $1.33 per share respectively [3]. - For the fourth quarter, eBay forecasts adjusted earnings between $1.31 and $1.36 per share, which is below analysts' average estimate of $1.39 per share, while revenue is expected to be between $2.83 billion and $2.89 billion, above the estimate of $2.79 billion [5]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Challenges - The company continues to face macroeconomic challenges across international markets, with increased headwinds for cross-border trade into the U.S. [2]. - The U.S. has ended de minimis tariff exemptions for parcel imports, impacting online marketplaces like eBay, particularly affecting sellers in Japan and Canada [4][5]. - Concerns over rising prices for imported goods and changes in customs requirements have negatively impacted consumer confidence [1]. Group 3: Market Trends - There has been a deceleration in year-over-year volume growth starting in September in key markets importing into the U.S. following the removal of the de minimis exemption [3]. - An increase in demand for bullion and collectible coins has been observed, attributed to rising commodity prices for precious metals, although this trend may not be sustainable [4].

Core Insights - McCormick reported third-quarter sales and profit that exceeded expectations, driven by strong demand for its premium spices and seasonings despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties [1] Company Performance - The company demonstrated resilience in its sales performance, indicating a robust consumer preference for higher-priced products [1] Market Context - The results come amid a backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainty, suggesting that consumers are still willing to invest in quality food products [1]

Core Insights - The current jobs market is experiencing significant challenges, particularly for college graduates, who are facing the worst job market in a decade [1][2] - Economic uncertainty is causing both employers and workers to feel stagnant, leading to a slowdown in hiring and job movement [2][3] - While layoffs remain historically low, the unemployment rate is beginning to rise, with more unemployed individuals than available job openings [5][16] Labor Market Dynamics - Employers are reducing hiring to cut costs due to rising tariffs affecting their profitability, which is contributing to a slower labor market [3][20] - Workers are exhibiting "job hugging," staying in their current positions due to economic uncertainty, which is leading to increased job tenure [6][7] - New hire surveys indicate that job seekers are focusing on long-term job satisfaction, prioritizing factors like flexibility and culture fit over pay [9][12] Gender Pay Gap - The gender pay gap is widening for the second consecutive year, with women increasingly taking lower-paying roles for better work-life balance [11][12] - Women are more likely to prioritize culture and flexibility over compensation, which may contribute to the growing pay gap [10][14] - Stability and job security are perceived to be higher among women focusing on holistic job aspects compared to men who prioritize higher pay [14][15] Future Hiring Trends - Despite current slowdowns, there are indications that businesses may increase hiring in the coming months as they adapt to economic conditions [17][18] - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts could stimulate business hiring, although high tariffs remain a significant challenge [20][21] - The direction of the labor market will depend on inflation trends and the Fed's response to economic data in the upcoming months [21][22]

Company Overview - Once Upon a Farm, an organic baby-food manufacturer based in Berkeley, California, has registered for an IPO on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol OFRM, a decade after its establishment in 2015 [1] - The company was co-founded by Cassandra Curtis and Ari Raz, and John Foraker, former CEO of Annie's, joined as chief executive in 2017 [2] Financial Performance - In 2024, Once Upon a Farm reported sales revenue of $156.8 million, an increase from $94.3 million in 2023. For the first half of 2025, sales reached $110.6 million, up from $65.8 million in the same period the previous year [4] - The company recorded a net loss of $23.8 million for the year ending December 31, compared to a loss of $17.6 million the previous year. In the first half of 2025, the net loss was $28.5 million, significantly higher than the $4.2 million loss in the same period a year earlier [3][4] Operational Challenges - Once Upon a Farm faces operational challenges, including uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment due to geopolitical and economic instability, which could disrupt its supply chain [5] - The company sources a significant portion of its fruit and vegetable ingredients from Mexico and South America, and potential tariffs or trade barriers could lead to shortages and increased procurement costs [6] - All products are marketed as organic, non-GMO, with no added sugar, and free from artificial flavors, colors, and preservatives [6]

Group 1: Fund Performance - Artisan Global Discovery Fund's Investor Class APFDX returned 10.84%, Advisor Class APDDX posted 10.83%, and Institutional Class APHDX returned 10.93% in Q2 2025, compared to an 11.84% return for the MSCI All Country World Small Mid Index [1] - Global markets experienced volatility in Q2 2025, with a shift from double-digit declines to gains following President Trump's tariff announcements and subsequent suspension [1] Group 2: Company Focus - Aris Water Solutions, Inc. - Aris Water Solutions, Inc. (NYSE:ARIS) is highlighted as a stock of interest, with a one-month return of 1.89% and a 52-week gain of 58.96%, closing at $23.78 per share with a market capitalization of $1.407 billion on September 05, 2025 [2] - Aris Water Solutions, Inc. was among the top detractors for the fund, impacted by lower oil prices and macroeconomic uncertainty, despite better-than-expected quarterly results and guidance [3] - The company provides full-cycle water handling and recycling solutions in the Permian Basin, focusing on the Delaware Basin, where the water-to-oil ratio is notably high [3]