North America Equity Research December 2025 US Internet 2026 Outlook Doug Anmuth AC (212) 622-6571 douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Dae Lee, CFA AC (415) 315-8500 dae.k.lee@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Bryan M. Smilek AC (212) 622-8886 bryan.smilek@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Neeraj Kookada, CFA (212) 622-0270 neeraj.s.kookada@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Margaret Hoffman (212) 622-1710 margaret.hoffman@jpmchase.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC See the e ...

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Summary of ZipRecruiter Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: ZipRecruiter (NYSE: ZIP) - **Industry**: Online Job Marketplace - **Core Business**: Matches employers with job seekers using advanced technology and AI algorithms to improve job matching quality [5][6] Recent Developments - **New Features**: - **ZipIntro**: A feature allowing employers to have live conversations with qualified candidates, resulting in a 90% satisfaction rate among job seekers [7][8] - **Resume Database**: Enhanced tool for employers to proactively search for candidates, with a 12% increase in resume reviews quarter-over-quarter [8][9] - **Acquisition of Breakroom**: A UK-based company that has successfully created over 10,000 employer pages and gathered over a million ratings from employees [9] Market Position and Competition - **Competitors**: Main competitors include LinkedIn and Indeed, with ZipRecruiter focusing on individualized matches rather than social media or vertical search engines [12] - **Market Size**: The total addressable market (TAM) for recruitment in the U.S. is approximately $300 billion, with only 5% currently online, indicating significant growth potential for online platforms [15] Employer and Job Seeker Perspectives - **Employer Needs**: Employers seek to streamline the hiring process and make quality hires quickly, with tools like preset job templates and ZipIntro facilitating this [16] - **Job Seeker Needs**: Job seekers require a more personalized job search experience, which ZipRecruiter aims to provide through data-driven matching [17] Traffic and Growth - **Brand Awareness**: ZipRecruiter has achieved 80% aided brand awareness, with significant growth in traffic from LLM-based sources, increasing by 140% quarter-over-quarter [18] - **Revenue Growth**: Despite a challenging macro environment, ZipRecruiter reported a 12% quarter-over-quarter revenue growth in its enterprise business [28][29] Macro Environment - **Current State**: The labor market has been stable but soft, with a noted decline in hiring activity. However, ZipRecruiter has managed to grow its paid employer numbers [28][29] - **Future Outlook**: The company is prepared for various economic scenarios, aiming for growth in 2026 while maintaining flexibility in its operations [31][32] Financial Performance and Guidance - **Revenue per Paid Employer**: This metric has faced pressure due to overall hiring declines, but the company remains confident in long-term growth driven by enterprise market share and customer maturity [36][37] - **Margins**: ZipRecruiter expects margins to stabilize in Q4, with a long-term target of 30% adjusted margins [41][45] Capital Deployment Strategy - **Investment Priorities**: Focus on organic business growth, maintaining balance sheet flexibility for opportunistic M&A, and shareholder returns through buybacks or debt retirement [47][49] Conclusion - **Long-term Potential**: ZipRecruiter remains optimistic about the U.S. labor market and its growth potential, with a focus on leveraging AI and data to enhance its platform and user experience [53][56]

Core Insights - Seven state Democratic attorneys general are investigating Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) services, requesting details on loan costs, structures, and consumer repayment abilities [1][2][3] Group 1: Regulatory Actions - Companies such as Klarna Group Plc, Affirm Holdings Inc., and Afterpay Ltd. received letters from state attorneys general, requiring them to provide detailed information about their loan products and customer interactions within 30 days [2] - The inquiry is a response to a reduction in federal regulation, as the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau previously revoked a rule that classified many BNPL services under the same regulations as credit cards [5][6] Group 2: Consumer Protection Concerns - Connecticut Attorney General William Tong expressed concerns that aggressive marketing of BNPL services may lead consumers into expensive debt traps, especially during the holiday season [3][4] - The state officials are seeking information on how companies assess delinquencies and borrowers' repayment capabilities, as well as their compliance with the federal Truth in Lending Act [7] Group 3: Market Growth Projections - The volume of BNPL transactions is projected to reach $687 billion by 2028, a significant increase from $334 billion in the previous year, indicating rapid growth in the sector [6]

Market Performance - On November 7, 2025, the Australian stock market experienced a decline, with all major indices ending in negative territory. The S&P/ASX 200 fell to 8,769.70 from 8,828.30, a decrease of 0.7% [1][6] - The S&P/ASX 20 also dropped to 4,863.80 from 4,900.00, marking a 0.7% decline [1][6] - Broader indices such as the S&P/ASX 50 and S&P/ASX 100 saw declines of 0.6%, closing at 8,451.90 and 7,308.00 respectively [6] Futures Market - The S&P/ASX 200 futures for December 2025 declined by 0.62%, trading at 8,788.5, down 54.5 points [2][6] Top Gainers - AUB Group Limited (AUB) led the gainers, increasing by $2.30 or 6.285% to close at $38.890 [4][6] - ASX Limited (ASX) rose by $2.17, representing a 3.773% increase to $59.680 [4][6] - News Corporation (NWS) gained $1.36 or 3.022%, finishing at $46.350 [4][6] - GPT Group (GPT) added $0.16, lifting its share price by 2.996% to $5.500 [4][6] - Lynas Rare Earths Limited (LYC) rounded out the top five performers, up $0.38 or 2.891% to $13.520 [4][6] Top Decliners - Block, Inc. (XYZ) recorded the steepest decline, tumbling $17.79 or 15.756% to $95.120 [5][6] - Zip Co Limited (ZIP) dropped $0.24, a 6.649% decline to $3.370 [5][6] - Qantas Airways Limited (QAN) lost $0.67, down 6.582% to $9.510 [5][6] - Domino's Pizza Enterprises Limited (DMP) slipped $1.17 or 5.839% to close at $18.870 [5][6] - Macquarie Group Limited (MQG) fell $12.48, a 5.745% decrease to $204.770 [5][6]

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Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue in Q3 2025 was $115 million, representing a 2% decline year-over-year but a 2% increase sequentially, exceeding the midpoint of guidance [10] - Quarterly paid employers reached 67,000, increasing 3% year-over-year and 1% sequentially, marking the first year-over-year growth since Q1 2022 [10][11] - Revenue per paid employer for Q3 2025 was $1,717, down 4% year-over-year but up 1% sequentially [11] - Net loss in Q3 2025 was $9.8 million, with adjusted EBITDA of $9.2 million, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 8% [11] - Cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities totaled $411 million as of September 30, 2025 [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Performance-based revenue grew 12% quarter-over-quarter, making up 24% of total revenue in Q3 2025, up from 22% in the prior quarter [11] - Quarterly paid employers increased by 1% sequentially and 3% year-over-year, indicating strong brand value despite a subdued hiring market [7][11] - Enterprise customer adoption of automated campaign performance optimization increased by 19% quarter-over-quarter [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Job seeker visits from generative AI models increased by 140% sequentially, indicating a growing channel of job seeker traffic [5][9] - Breakroom, a workplace rating platform, published over 10,000 employer profiles, up from 8,000 in the prior quarter, powered by over 1 million ratings from workers [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on product and technology investments to drive better matching and engagement across its marketplace [7] - The strategy includes optimizing for AI-driven discovery and enhancing the job seeker application experience through tools like ZipApply [5][6] - The company aims to capture market share as the labor market recovers, leveraging its strong brand and product offerings [6] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted a persistently soft labor market but highlighted consistent revenue growth and paid employer growth from Q1 to Q3 2025 [4] - The guidance for Q4 2025 anticipates revenue between $109 million and $115 million, representing a 1% year-over-year increase [11][12] - Management expects continued stability in the hiring environment, with normal seasonal slowness during the holiday periods [12] Other Important Information - The company repurchased 2.2 million shares for a total of $10 million during Q3 2025 [11] - The adjusted EBITDA guidance midpoint for Q4 2025 is $14 million, implying a full-year adjusted EBITDA margin of 9% [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Market reception for products like automated campaign optimization and ZipIntro - Management indicated that product strategy is working, with evidence of revenue and utilization growth despite macro challenges [14][15] Question: Macro view and guidance for Q4 - Management observed a modest decline in hiring but expects the current market trend to continue into Q4 [19][21] Question: Q4 margin strength versus earlier mid-single-digit characterization - Management explained that Q4 margins reflect typical seasonal patterns in marketing investments, with a focus on high ROI opportunities [22] Question: Drivers of quarterly paid employer trends - Growth is attributed to both new paid employers and reactivations of former employers, reflecting strong customer acquisition and engagement [32][33] Question: Conversion quality from generative AI traffic - Management noted that the quality of traffic from generative AI is on par with traditional sources, with ongoing optimization efforts [34][36]

Financial Highlights - Q3 2025 revenue reached $115 million[12] - Q3 2025 Adjusted EBITDA was $92 million, representing an 8% margin[12] - Q3 2025 Revenue per Paid Employer was $1,717[12] - The company achieved a healthy 16% Adjusted EBITDA margin for FY 2024[15] Market and Business Overview - The recruiting industry presents a large Total Addressable Market (TAM) exceeding $300 billion[15, 16, 61, 62] - The company connects over 4 million employers and over 170 million job seekers[15, 20] - The company delivered over 40 million Great Match candidates in 2024[15, 22] - 80% of employers using the platform receive a quality candidate within the first 24 hours[15, 22] - The company has achieved 80% aided brand awareness among U S employers and job seekers since its founding[15, 41] Revenue Model - 76% of revenue is generated from flat-rate pricing (daily, monthly, and annual subscription plans)[25] - 24% of revenue is generated from performance-based pricing (cost-per-click on job postings)[28]

Financial Performance - For the three months ended September 30, 2025, the company's revenue was $115.0 million, a decrease of 1% compared to $117.1 million for the same period in 2024[126]. - The net loss for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $9.8 million, compared to a net loss of $2.6 million in the same quarter of 2024[126]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $9.2 million, down from $15.0 million in the same quarter of 2024, resulting in an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 8%[126][136]. - Total revenue for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $114,982, a decrease of $2,102, or 2%, compared to $117,084 for the same period in 2024[158]. - For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, total revenue was $337,279, down $25,702, or 7%, from $362,981 in 2024[159]. - The Adjusted EBITDA margin for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was 7%, down from 18% in the same period of 2024[136]. Revenue Breakdown - The company generates revenue primarily from fees paid by employers to post jobs, with subscription revenue consisting of time-based job posting plans and upsell services[138]. - Subscription revenue decreased by $3.3 million, or 4%, while performance-based revenue increased by $1.2 million, or 5%, for the three months ended September 30, 2025[158]. - Revenue per Paid Employer for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, was $1,717, an increase from $1,693 in the previous quarter[130]. Operating Expenses - The company expects sales and marketing expenses to remain its largest operating expense category as it continues to invest in these efforts over time[148]. - Sales and marketing expenses increased by $5.0 million, or 9%, for the three months ended September 30, 2025, totaling $59,952[163]. - Research and development expenses for the three months ended September 30, 2025, were $30,854, a decrease of $2,851, or 8%, compared to $33,705 in 2024[165]. - General and administrative expenses decreased by $2.6 million, or 14%, for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to the same period in 2024[167]. - Total operating expenses for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, were $324,504, an increase from $319,057 in 2024[157]. Cash Flow and Investments - As of September 30, 2025, the company had cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities totaling $411.0 million, with $287.4 million available in unused borrowing capacity under its credit facility[174]. - For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, cash provided by operating activities was $3.2 million, resulting from a net loss of $32.2 million adjusted by non-cash charges of $44.7 million[192]. - The company held $248.5 million in total investments as of September 30, 2025, consisting of money market mutual funds and available-for-sale debt securities[189]. - Net cash provided by (used in) investing activities was $86.9 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $(47.1) million in 2024[190]. - For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, cash used in financing activities was $96.7 million, consisting of $94.1 million for the repurchase of common stock[196]. Share Repurchase and Debt - The company repurchased 17.1 million shares of Class A common stock for $93.9 million during the nine months ended September 30, 2025, with approximately $129.2 million remaining for future repurchases[185][186]. - The credit facility agreement was increased from $250.0 million to $290.0 million in July 2024, with a maturity date of April 30, 2026[176]. - The company had no amounts outstanding under its credit facility and was in compliance with its debt covenants as of September 30, 2025[180]. Tax and Other Expenses - The effective tax rate for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was impacted by non-deductible expenses and research and development tax credits[155]. - Income tax expense increased by $3.3 million, or 183%, for the three months ended September 30, 2025, primarily due to differences in pretax losses and a decrease in research and development tax credits[172]. - Interest expense for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $7,406, slightly down from $7,475 in 2024[157]. - Total other income (expense), net increased by $2.1 million, or 185%, for the three months ended September 30, 2025, primarily due to a decrease related to income accretion for marketable securities[169]. Market Conditions and Company Strategy - The labor market remains subdued, impacting hiring levels, but the company reported a higher number of Quarterly Paid Employers compared to the same quarter in 2024[137]. - The number of Quarterly Paid Employers increased by 1% from June 30, 2025, to September 30, 2025, contrasting with a 7% decrease in the same period of the previous year[129]. - The company plans to continue aggressive investments in its marketplace to enhance functionality and drive growth, focusing on employer and job seeker engagement[125]. Risk Management - The company is exposed to fluctuations in foreign exchange risk, primarily related to expenses in currencies other than the U.S. Dollar, such as the Canadian Dollar and British Pound[206]. - A hypothetical increase in interest rates of 100 basis points would result in a $0.5 million decrease in the fair value of the investment portfolio as of September 30, 2025[205]. - The company has not experienced material risks due to changes in interest rates, with a hypothetical 10% change in interest rates not impacting the financial statements materially[203]. - The company did not have any relationships with unconsolidated organizations or financial partnerships through September 30, 2025[198]. - There have been no changes to the company's critical accounting policies and estimates compared to the previous year[200]. - The company aims to preserve principal, provide liquidity, and maximize income without significantly increasing risk in its investment activities[205].

Financial Performance - Q3'25 revenue was $115 million, reflecting a 2% sequential growth and a 2% year-over-year decline, marking the second consecutive quarter of sequential growth[13]. - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3'25 was $9.2 million, with an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 8%, compared to $15 million and a margin of 13% in Q3'24[55]. - Revenue for Q3'25 was $114.982 million, a decrease from $117.084 million in Q3'24, while gross profit was $102.467 million compared to $104.702 million in the same period[69]. - The net loss for Q3'25 was $9.822 million, compared to a net loss of $2.570 million in Q3'24[69]. - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $9,249,000, with an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 8%, down from 13% in Q3 2024[71]. - Cash flows from operating activities provided $2,611,000 in Q3 2025, a decrease from $33,243,000 in Q3 2024[70]. - The company experienced a net cash increase of $8,353,000 in Q3 2025, compared to a decrease of $46,074,000 in Q3 2024[70]. Revenue Guidance - Q4'25 revenue guidance is set at $109 million to $115 million, indicating a return to year-over-year growth for the first time since Q3'22[16]. - Q4'25 revenue guidance is $112 million at the midpoint, representing a 1% year-over-year increase, marking the first quarter of year-over-year revenue growth since Q3'22[62]. Employer and Job Seeker Metrics - Quarterly Paid Employers (QPEs) reached 67,000, up 3% year-over-year and up 1% sequentially, representing the first year-over-year increase since Q1'22[22]. - Paid Employers grew sequentially for the third consecutive quarter in Q3'25, with year-over-year growth for the first time since Q1'22[61]. - Engagement on the platform improved, with nearly 24% more SMB jobs receiving five or more applications within the first 24 hours compared to Q3'24[15]. - Job seeker visits from generative AI engines more than doubled in Q3'25, highlighting the increasing use of AI in job searches[28]. Cash and Assets - As of September 30, 2025, cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities totaled $411.0 million, down from $497.6 million year-over-year and $421.2 million quarter-over-quarter, primarily due to stock repurchases[59]. - Total current assets as of September 30, 2025, were $449.780 million, down from $543.673 million as of December 31, 2024[68]. - The company purchased 2.2 million shares for a total of $10.0 million under its share repurchase program in Q3'25[59]. Operating Expenses and Costs - Operating expenses for Q3'25 totaled $107.494 million, slightly down from $107.941 million in Q3'24[69]. - GAAP sales and marketing expenses increased to $59,952,000 in Q3 2025 from $54,928,000 in Q3 2024[73]. - Non-GAAP cost of revenue for Q3 2025 was $11,421,000, slightly higher than $11,231,000 in Q3 2024[72]. - The company reported a GAAP cost of revenue of $12,515,000 for Q3 2025, compared to $12,382,000 in Q3 2024[72]. - Stock-based compensation expense for Q3 2025 was $11,060,000, down from $15,033,000 in Q3 2024[71]. Strategic Focus - The company remains focused on disciplined capital deployment and sustained investment in high-ROI product and marketing opportunities to navigate the current hiring environment[64]. - The company aims for a long-term goal of 30% Adjusted EBITDA margins, demonstrating confidence in future growth despite current market conditions[18]. Business Acquisitions - The company acquired a business for $12,040,000 in Q3 2024, impacting cash flows from investing activities[70]. Other Metrics - Breakroom, a workplace rating platform, published over 10,000 employer profiles in the U.S. as of September 2025, up from 8,000 in the previous quarter[33]. - The company had a total of 94,775 fully diluted shares outstanding as of September 30, 2025[74].