Core Viewpoint - Investors are increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month due to weaker-than-expected retail sales data [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Stock futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 99 points, or 0.2%, while S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 contracts both gained 0.3% [2]. - The three major indexes experienced a rally on Tuesday, with the Dow increasing by more than 660 points following economic data that supported the case for a rate cut at the Fed's upcoming policy meeting [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Retail sales figures were reported weaker than expected, contributing to the market's anticipation of a rate cut [3]. - The producer price index increased in line with economists' forecasts, further influencing market sentiment [3].

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Core Insights - The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for September indicates that consumer spending was lower than expected, with a 0.2% increase in headline sales compared to the anticipated 0.4% growth [1] - Total retail and food services sales for September 2025 reached $733.3 billion, marking a 4.3% increase from September 2024 [1] - Core retail sales, excluding automobiles, rose by 0.3% in September, down from 0.6% in August, and are up 4.1% year-over-year [4] Retail Sales Performance - Retail trade sales increased by 0.1% from August 2025 and 3.9% from the previous year, with nonstore retailers seeing a 6.0% increase and food service establishments up 6.7% year-over-year [2] - Monthly retail sales have shown consistent growth since March 2021, reflecting pent-up consumer demand post-pandemic, with a year-over-year increase of 4.3% [3] Control Purchases Analysis - Retail sales control purchases, which provide a more stable view of the economy, fell by 0.1% in September, contrasting with the expected 0.3% growth [5] - Year-over-year, control purchases are up 4.2%, indicating a steady trend despite the recent monthly decline [6] Market Implications - The retail sales data is likely to influence interest in various retail-focused ETFs, including SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) and VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) [8]

Core Insights - Retail sales in the U.S. slowed in September, indicating a potential waning of consumer momentum as the economy heads into the fourth quarter [2][7] - The slowdown in retail sales could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates, with some economists suggesting it may lead to a rate cut in December [3][4] Economic Implications - Cooling consumer spending may signal a broader economic slowdown, which could affect growth prospects and the Fed's next interest rate decision [3][4] - The weaker retail sales report may indicate a drag on the economy, potentially leading to weaker third-quarter GDP results [8] Consumer Behavior - Certain retail categories, such as healthcare, furniture, and dining, saw sales increases, while categories like sporting goods, clothing, electronics, and online retail experienced declines compared to August [5] - Financial pressures on middle- and lower-income households are leading consumers to become more value-based shoppers [6] Federal Reserve Considerations - Federal Reserve officials are divided on whether to cut rates, with some citing high inflation as a reason to maintain current rates, while others point to a softening job market as justification for cuts [4] - The data released in September, which was delayed due to a government shutdown, provided clearer insights into the economy for Fed officials [2][7]

Market Overview - U.S. stocks showed mixed performance with the Dow Jones increasing by over 250 points, up 0.61% to 46,729.44, while NASDAQ fell by 0.28% to 22,808.72 and S&P 500 rose by 0.08% to 6,710.34 [1] - Communication services sector saw a rise of 1.4% [1] - Information technology stocks experienced a decline of 1.1% [2] Company Performance - Alibaba Group Holding reported quarterly revenue of $34.81 billion, a 5% year-over-year increase, exceeding analyst expectations of $34.43 billion [3] - Adjusted earnings per American Depositary Share (ADS) for Alibaba were 61 cents, surpassing the consensus estimate of 49 cents [3] Commodity Market - Oil prices decreased by 2.1% to $57.59, while gold prices increased by 1.1% to $4,140.50 [5] - Silver rose by 1.7% to $51.185 and copper increased by 3.8% to $5.1545 [5] European Market - European shares showed positive movement with the eurozone's STOXX 600 rising by 0.6% and Spain's IBEX 35 Index increasing by 0.8% [6] Asian Market - Asian markets closed mostly higher, with Japan's Nikkei gaining 0.07%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng up by 0.69%, and China's Shanghai Composite increasing by 0.87% [7] Notable Stock Movements - Rubico Inc shares surged by 67% to $0.26 after extending tanker charters [9] - Clean Energy Technologies Inc shares rose by 75% to $1.87 following a $10 million battery energy storage project announcement [9] - Barnes & Noble Education Inc shares increased by 37% to $9.18 after announcing preliminary financial results [9] - MingZhu Logistics Holdings Ltd shares dropped by 84% to $0.17 due to an $8 million registered direct offering [9] - GreenPower Motor Company Inc shares fell by 34% to $0.8500, and K Wave Media Ltd shares decreased by 24% to $0.68 [9] Economic Indicators - The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose by 1.4% year-over-year in September, marking the eighth consecutive month of slowing growth [11] - The FHFA house price index remained flat for September [11] - U.S. producer prices increased by 0.3% month-over-month in September, following a 0.1% decline in the previous month [11] - U.S. retail sales rose by 0.2% month-over-month in September, compared to a 0.6% gain in August [11]

Welcome back to Squawkbox. Rick Santelli here live at CME HQ with the breaking news of the morning. Finally, some real news.PPI producer price index for September. A bit late. Headline number coming in matching expectations of up 3/10.That would be the warmest since it was up 7/10 in July, which actually just a couple of months ago, at least based on this data. If we strip out uh the food and and add food and energy in, it becomes up one/10enth. That's cooler than expected.Up one/10enth would be the lightes ...

We've got a little bit of a disappointment in terms of retail sales. Headline retail sales come in up 2/10 of a percent. They were up 6/10 in the month of August.Now, remember, this is September data. The expectation was for a 4/10 rise. Ex autos were up 3/10, which is what was forecast.But the control group, we don't have that number yet, hasn't come through yet. We'll get that for you in just a second. But ex autos and gas of all the 8/10 of a percent.So a lot having to do with prices there in terms of PP ...

Retail Sales Trend - US retail sales saw a modest increase in September [1] - Suggesting some consumers paused spending after several months of strong activity [1]

All right. How much weight are you going to put on this retail sales report. We had a guest on earlier.He says, "Yeah, it's interesting because I want data, but it's kind of backwards looking and it's kind of not really clear how much of a read it gives on today's consumer." >> Yeah, that's correct. And I think you're going to get some more data in the later in the week. You know, Adobe usually comes out with their, you know, Black Friday weekend sales update and some of their Cyber Monday, you know, data p ...

Despite tariffs, stick to inflation, and the lack of key data, the outlook for spending remains bullish, according to the Mastercard Economics Institute. Here with us now at Post9 is chief economist of the Mastercard Economics Institute, Michelle Meyer. It's good to have you back.Welcome. >> Thank you. >> So, what do you guys expect. >> Well, exactly what you said.I mean, the consumer is still very much engaged despite all of these different headlines. They're trying to navigate relative price differentials ...