Core Viewpoint - Sugar prices have recently rallied to 5-week highs due to reduced production estimates in Brazil and potential changes in India's ethanol pricing policy, which may lead to lower sugar supplies [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 closed up +0.23 (+1.54%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 closed up +5.70 (+1.33%) [1]. - Sugar prices have been under pressure since early October due to expectations of robust global sugar supplies, with London sugar reaching a 4.75-year low and NY sugar hitting a 5-year low [5]. Group 2: Production Estimates - StoneX has cut its Brazil 2026/27 Center-South sugar production estimate to 41.5 million metric tons (MMT) from 42.1 MMT [1]. - Conab raised its Brazil 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT from 44.5 MMT [6]. - ISO forecasts a +3.2% year-on-year rise in global sugar production to 181.8 million MMT in 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan [4]. Group 3: Export Policies - India's food ministry is considering boosting the price of ethanol for gasoline blending, which could lead to more sugar mills diverting cane for ethanol production, thus reducing sugar supplies [2]. - India has allowed mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in the 2025/26 season, down from earlier estimates of 2 MMT [3]. Group 4: Market Surplus - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million MT in 2025-26, following a deficit of 2.916 million MT in 2024-25 [4]. - Czarnikow has increased its global 2025/26 sugar surplus estimate to 8.7 MMT, up from 7.5 MMT [5].

Core Insights - Sugar prices are experiencing upward movement due to a weaker dollar and recent developments in India's ethanol pricing policy, which may lead to reduced sugar supplies as mills shift focus to ethanol production [2][3] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) has forecasted a significant sugar surplus of 1.625 million MT for the 2025-26 marketing year, driven by increased production in key countries [4] - Brazil's record sugar output is contributing to bearish price trends, with production estimates for 2025-26 raised to 45 million MT, indicating a strong supply outlook [6] Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 is up +0.05 (+0.34%), while March London ICE white sugar 5 is up +2.00 (+0.47%) [1] - Sugar prices have been consolidating below recent one-month highs, influenced by external factors such as currency fluctuations and domestic policy changes in India [2] Supply Dynamics - India's food ministry's decision to allow mills to export 1.5 million MT of sugar in the 2025/26 season is a reduction from earlier estimates, indicating tighter domestic supplies [3] - The ISO's forecast of a +3.2% year-on-year increase in global sugar production to 181.8 million MT for 2025-26 suggests a shift in market dynamics [4] Market Sentiment - The outlook for robust global sugar supplies has negatively impacted sugar prices, with recent lows recorded in both London and NY markets [5] - Czarnikow's updated estimate of an 8.7 million MT global sugar surplus for 2025/26 reflects growing concerns over supply outpacing demand [5]

Core Viewpoint - Sugar prices are experiencing moderate gains due to supply concerns stemming from India's potential increase in ethanol prices, which may lead to reduced sugar production as mills shift focus to ethanol [2] Group 1: Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 is up by 0.14 (+0.95%), while March London ICE white sugar 5 is up by 2.50 (+0.59%) [1] - Sugar prices have been consolidating below the one-month highs reached last Wednesday [2] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - India's food ministry is considering boosting the price of ethanol, which could incentivize sugar mills to divert more cane to ethanol production, thereby reducing sugar supplies [2] - On November 14, India's food ministry announced that mills would be allowed to export 1.5 million metric tons (MMT) of sugar in the 2025/26 season, lower than the previous estimate of 2 MMT [3] Group 3: Global Production Forecasts - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million MT for 2025-26, following a deficit of 2.916 million MT in 2024-25, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan [4] - ISO projects a 3.2% year-on-year increase in global sugar production to 181.8 million MT in 2025-26 [4] Group 4: Market Sentiment - The outlook for robust global sugar supplies has negatively impacted sugar prices, with London sugar reaching a 4.75-year low and NY sugar hitting a 5-year low due to higher output in Brazil and expectations of a global surplus [5] - Czarnikow has raised its global sugar surplus estimate for 2025/26 to 8.7 MMT, an increase of 1.2 MMT from the previous estimate [5] Group 5: Brazil's Production Impact - Brazil's crop forecasting agency, Conab, has increased its sugar production estimate for 2025/26 to 45 MMT from 44.5 MMT [6] - Brazil's Center-South sugar output rose by 16.4% year-on-year to 2.068 MT in the second half of October, with the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar increasing to 46.02% [6] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South through October rose by 1.6% year-on-year to 38.085 MMT [6]

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) today is up +0.02 (+0.14%), and March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) is up +1.00 (+0.35%). Sugar prices rallied to 3.5-week highs today on positive carryover from Tuesday, when India's food ministry said it was considering boosting the price of ethanol used for gasoline blending, which could encourage India's sugar mills to divert more cane crushing toward ethanol production rather than sugar, thus reducing sugar supplies. More News from Barchart However, sugar prices ...

Core Insights - Sugar prices have recently increased due to a rally in crude oil prices, which has led to short-covering in sugar futures [1] - Brazil's sugar production is projected to rise significantly, contributing to a robust global sugar supply outlook [2][3] - India's favorable monsoon conditions are expected to lead to a substantial increase in sugar production, negatively impacting sugar prices [4] Group 1: Sugar Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 closed up +0.19 (+1.26%) and December London ICE white sugar 5 closed up +3.30 (+0.76%) [1] - Sugar prices have been under pressure for the past seven months, with NY sugar reaching a 4.5-year low and London sugar a 4.25-year low due to increased sugar output in Brazil [2] Group 2: Brazil's Sugar Production - Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the second half of September rose by +10.8% year-on-year to 3.137 million tons [2] - The percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar in Brazil increased to 51.17% from 47.73% year-on-year [2] - Projections indicate Brazil's Center-South sugar production will increase by +3.9% year-on-year to a record 44 million tons in 2026/27 [3] Group 3: Global Sugar Supply Outlook - BMI Group projects a global sugar surplus of 10.5 million tons for 2025/26, while Covrig Analytics projects a surplus of 4.1 million tons for 2025/25 [3] Group 4: India's Sugar Production - India's sugar production is expected to rise by +19% year-on-year to 34.9 million tons for 2025/26, following a significant decline in 2024/25 [4] - Cumulative monsoon rainfall in India was reported at 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, indicating the strongest monsoon in five years [4]

Group 1: Sugar Price Trends - Sugar prices have been declining, with NY sugar closing down 1.90% and London sugar down 0.36% on Friday [1][2] - The recent trends indicate that London sugar has reached a 4.25-year nearest-futures low, while NY sugar is above a 3-week nearest-futures low [2] - Over the past seven months, NY sugar has seen a 4.5-year nearest-futures low due to increased sugar output in Brazil [3] Group 2: Global Sugar Supply Outlook - BMI Group projects a global sugar surplus of 10.5 million metric tons (MMT) for 2025/26, while Covrig Analytics estimates a surplus of 4.1 MMT for 2025/25 [2] - Brazil's sugar output in the second half of September increased by 10.8% year-on-year to 3.137 million tons, with a rise in the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar [3] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South region through September rose by 0.8% year-on-year to 33.524 MMT [3] Group 3: India’s Sugar Production and Export Potential - India's sugar production is expected to rise by 19% year-on-year to 34.9 MMT for 2025/26, following a significant decline in 2024/25 [4] - The Indian Meteorological Department reported cumulative monsoon rainfall of 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, indicating a strong monsoon that may lead to a bumper sugar crop [4] - India may divert 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26, which could lead to increased sugar exports of up to 4 MMT, surpassing earlier expectations [5]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have been declining, with NY sugar reaching a 3-week low and London sugar hitting a 4.25-year low, primarily due to increased sugar output in Brazil and favorable weather conditions in India [2][4]. Group 1: Sugar Price Trends - March NY world sugar 11 closed down by 0.49 (-3.04%), while December London ICE white sugar 5 fell by 6.40 (-1.42%) [1] - Sugar prices have been under pressure for the past seven months, with NY sugar posting a 4.5-year nearest-futures low last month [2] - The outlook for robust global sugar supplies is bearish for prices, with BMI Group projecting a global sugar surplus of 10.5 million metric tons (MMT) for 2025/26 [3] Group 2: Brazil's Sugar Production - Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the first half of September rose by 15.7% year-on-year to 3.622 million tons (MT) [2] - The percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil's sugar mills increased to 53.49% in the second half of August from 47.74% the previous year [2] - Cumulative sugar output for 2025-26 through mid-September fell by 0.1% year-on-year to 30.388 MMT [2] Group 3: India's Sugar Production and Export Outlook - India's cumulative monsoon rainfall as of September 30 was 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, indicating a strong monsoon that may lead to a bumper sugar crop [4] - India's sugar production for 2025/26 is projected to increase by 19% year-on-year to 34.9 MMT, following a significant decline in 2024/25 [4] - India may divert 4 MMT of sugar to ethanol production in 2025/26, which could lead to increased sugar exports, exceeding earlier expectations [5]

Core Insights - Sugar prices experienced a significant rally, with NY sugar reaching a 1.75-month nearest-futures high due to lower sugar production signals from Brazil [2] - Brazil's sugar content in crushed cane decreased, indicating potential declines in sugar output, while higher sugar output in Brazil is generally bearish for prices [4] Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 closed up +0.34 (+2.06%) and December London ICE white sugar 5 closed up +6.90 (+1.51%) [1] Production and Supply Dynamics - Brazil's Center-South sugar output rose by +15.7% year-on-year to 3.622 million tons in the first half of September, but cumulative sugar output for 2025-26 fell -0.1% year-on-year to 30.388 million tons [4] - The sugar content in Brazil's crushed cane dropped to 154.58 kg/ton in the first half of September from 160.07 kg/ton a year earlier [2] Global Supply Outlook - StoneX forecasts a global sugar surplus of +2.8 million metric tons for the 2025/26 season, reversing from a deficit of -4.7 million metric tons in the 2024/25 season [3] India’s Production Impact - India's sugar production is projected to increase by +19% year-on-year to 34.9 million metric tons for 2025/26, following a significant decline in 2024/25 [6] - The Indian Meteorological Department reported that cumulative monsoon rain was 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, indicating a potential bumper sugar crop [5]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have increased sharply, with NY sugar reaching a 1.75-month nearest-futures high, supported by a decline in sugar content in Brazil's sugarcane crush [2][4] - Brazil's sugar output has shown mixed signals, with a year-on-year increase in the first half of September but a slight decline in cumulative output for the 2025-26 season [4] - India's sugar production outlook is bearish for prices, with expectations of a significant increase in production due to favorable monsoon conditions [5][6] Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 is up by 0.32 (+1.94%) and December London ICE white sugar 5 is up by 6.90 (+1.51%) [1] - Last month, NY sugar hit a 4.25-year nearest-futures low, while London sugar fell to a 4-year low, extending a 7-month downtrend due to abundant global supplies [3] Brazil's Sugar Production - Brazil's Center-South sugar output rose by 15.7% year-on-year to 3.622 million tons in the first half of September [4] - The sugar content in crushed cane in Brazil dropped to 154.58 kg/ton in September from 160.07 kg/ton a year earlier, indicating potential lower production [2] India's Sugar Production Outlook - India's sugar production is projected to increase by 19% year-on-year to 34.9 million tons for the 2025/26 season, following a decline to a 5-year low of 26.2 million tons in 2024/25 [6] - The Indian Meteorological Department reported cumulative monsoon rain of 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, which is expected to contribute to a bumper sugar crop [5] Export Dynamics - India may divert 4 million tons of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26, which could lead to increased exports of sugar, potentially reaching 4 million tons, exceeding earlier expectations [7]

Core Insights - Sugar prices exhibited mixed performance, with NY sugar closing up by 0.07 (+0.431%) and London sugar down by 1.20 (-0.26%) on Friday, influenced by varying production signals from Brazil and global demand trends [1] Group 1: Production Trends - Brazil's Center-South sugarcane crush saw a decline in sugar content, dropping to 154.58 kg/ton in early September from 160.07 kg/ton a year earlier, indicating potential lower sugar production [1] - Brazil's sugar output in the first half of September increased by 15.7% year-on-year to 3.622 million tons, with a higher percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar rising to 53.49% compared to 47.74% the previous year [4] - India's sugar production is projected to rise by 19% year-on-year to 34.9 million tons for the 2025/26 season, following a significant decline in the previous year [6] Group 2: Global Demand and Supply Dynamics - NY sugar reached a 1.5-month high and London sugar a 2-week high due to stronger global demand, highlighted by Pakistan's order of 320,000 metric tons of sugar for immediate delivery [2] - A global sugar surplus of 2.8 million tons is projected for the 2025/26 season, a shift from a deficit of 4.7 million tons in the 2024/25 season, indicating an overall increase in supply [3] - The outlook for higher sugar exports from India is negative for sugar prices, as the country experiences its strongest monsoon in five years, leading to expectations of a bumper sugar crop [5]