Core Insights - Sugar prices exhibited mixed performance, with NY world sugar closing down while London ICE white sugar closed up, reflecting market volatility [1][2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million MT for the 2025-26 marketing year, a significant shift from a deficit of 2.916 million MT in 2024-25, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan [2] - ISO also predicts a 3.2% year-over-year increase in global sugar production, reaching 181.8 million MT in 2025-26 [2] Market Reactions - Sugar prices recovered from lows due to short covering after India's food ministry indicated a potential increase in ethanol prices, which may lead to reduced sugar supplies as mills shift focus to ethanol production [3] - Last Friday, sugar prices rallied to three-week highs amid tighter supplies from India, with the government allowing mills to export only 1.5 million MT of sugar for the 2025/26 season, down from earlier estimates of 2 million MT [4] Price Trends and Forecasts - The outlook for robust global sugar supplies has negatively impacted prices, with London sugar hitting a 4.75-year low and NY sugar prices reaching a five-year low, primarily due to increased output in Brazil and expectations of a global surplus [5] - Brazil's crop forecasting agency, Conab, raised its sugar production estimate for 2025/26 to 45 million MT, indicating a bearish outlook for prices [6] - Brazil's Center-South sugar output increased by 16.4% year-over-year in late October, with a higher percentage of sugarcane being crushed for sugar compared to the previous year [6]

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Wednesday closed up +0.27 (+1.89%), and December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ25) closed up +9.90 (+2.43%). Sugar prices settled sharply higher on Wednesday, with NY sugar posting a 1-week high.  Short covering emerged in sugar futures on Wednesday on signs that India may export less sugar than initially expected, after Bloomberg reported that India's food ministry is considering a proposal to allow sugar mills to export 1.5 MMT in the 2025/26 season, below earlier est ...

Core Insights - Sugar prices are experiencing a significant increase, with NY sugar reaching a one-week high due to short covering amid expectations of reduced sugar exports from India [2] - The global sugar supply outlook remains bearish, with Brazil's sugar production estimates being raised, contributing to lower prices [3][4] Group 1: Sugar Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 is up by 0.30 (+2.11%), while December London ICE white sugar 5 is up by 9.70 (+2.38%) [1] - Short covering in sugar futures is driven by reports that India may export less sugar than previously anticipated, with a proposed export limit of 1.5 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 season [2] Group 2: Global Sugar Supply Outlook - The global sugar surplus is projected to increase, with Czarnikow raising its 2025/26 sugar surplus estimate to 8.7 MMT, up by 1.2 MMT from the previous estimate [3] - Brazil's crop forecasting agency, Conab, has increased its sugar production estimate for 2025/26 to 45 MMT, indicating a bearish outlook for sugar prices [4] Group 3: India’s Sugar Production - The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) has raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 31 MMT, reflecting an 18.8% year-on-year increase, which may further impact global sugar prices [5] - The reduction in sugar used for ethanol production in India to 3.4 MMT from a previous forecast of 5 MMT may allow for increased sugar exports [5]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have declined significantly, with NY sugar reaching a 4.5-year low and London sugar hitting a 4.25-year low, influenced by increased sugar output in Brazil and expectations of robust global supplies [2][3][4] Price Trends - March NY world sugar 11 is down -0.32 (-2.09%) and December London ICE white sugar 5 is down -6.70 (-1.53%) [1] - Sugar prices experienced a temporary recovery due to rising crude oil prices but have since reverted to weakness [2] Supply Dynamics - Brazil's Center-South sugar output increased by +10.8% year-on-year to 3.137 million tons in the second half of September, with the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar rising to 51.17% from 47.73% [3] - Projections indicate Brazil's Center-South sugar production for 2026/27 will rise by +3.9% year-on-year to a record 44 million tons [4] Global Supply Outlook - BMI Group forecasts a global sugar surplus of 10.5 million tons for 2025/26, while Covrig Analytics projects a surplus of 4.1 million tons for 2025/25 [4] - India's sugar production is expected to rebound by +19% year-on-year to 34.9 million tons for 2025/26, following a significant decline in 2024/25 [5]

Core Insights - Sugar prices are experiencing downward pressure, with NY sugar reaching a 4.5-year low and London sugar hitting a 4.25-year low due to increased sugar production in Brazil and favorable weather conditions in India [1][2][4]. Group 1: Sugar Production and Supply - Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the second half of September increased by 10.8% year-on-year to 3.137 million tons [2] - Cumulative sugar output for the 2025-26 season in Brazil rose by 0.8% year-on-year to 33.524 million tons [2] - Datagro projects Brazil's Center-South sugar production for 2026/27 to rise by 3.9% year-on-year to a record 44 million tons [3] Group 2: Global Sugar Surplus - BMI Group forecasts a global sugar surplus of 10.5 million tons for the 2025/26 season [3] - Covrig Analytics projects a global sugar surplus of 4.1 million tons for the 2025/25 season [3] Group 3: India's Sugar Production and Export Outlook - India's sugar production for 2025/26 is projected to increase by 19% year-on-year to 34.9 million tons, following a decline of 17.5% year-on-year in 2024/25 to a five-year low of 26.2 million tons [4] - India's Meteorological Department reported cumulative monsoon rainfall of 937.2 mm as of September 30, which is 8% above normal, indicating a strong monsoon season [4] Group 4: Ethanol Diversion and Export Expectations - Sucden reported that India may divert 4 million tons of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26, which may not sufficiently alleviate the sugar surplus and could lead to increased exports of up to 4 million tons [5]

Core Insights - Sugar prices are experiencing a significant decline, with NY sugar reaching a 3-week low and London sugar hitting a 4.25-year low, driven by increased sugar production forecasts in major producing countries [2][4][6] Group 1: Sugar Production and Supply - Brazil's sugar output in the first half of September increased by 15.7% year-on-year to 3.622 million tons, contributing to the bearish outlook for sugar prices [2] - The cumulative sugar output for Brazil's Center-South region for the 2025-26 season through mid-September fell by 0.1% year-on-year to 30.388 million tons [2] - India's sugar production is projected to rise by 19% year-on-year to 34.9 million tons for the 2025-26 season, following a significant decline in the previous year [4] - Thailand's sugar production is expected to increase by 5% year-on-year to 10.5 million tons for the 2025-26 season, further adding to global supply [6] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Export Outlook - The global sugar market is projected to have a surplus of 10.5 million tons for the 2025/26 season, which is expected to exert downward pressure on prices [3] - India's abundant monsoon rains have led to expectations of a bumper sugar crop, which may negatively impact sugar prices [4] - India's sugar mills may export up to 4 million tons of sugar, exceeding earlier expectations, due to a potential surplus despite plans to divert some sugar for ethanol production [5]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have recently declined after reaching a 1.75-month high, influenced by projections of a global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season [1][2] Group 1: Sugar Price Trends - March NY world sugar 11 closed down -0.18 (-1.07%), while December London ICE white sugar 5 closed down -6.40 (-1.38%) [1] - NY sugar initially climbed to a 1.75-month high due to lower sugar content from Brazil's sugarcane crush [2] - Last month, NY sugar hit a 4.25-year low, and London sugar reached a 4-year low, extending a 7-month downtrend due to abundant global sugar supplies [3] Group 2: Brazil's Sugar Production - Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the first half of September rose by +15.7% year-on-year to 3.622 million tons [4] - The percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil's sugar mills increased to 53.49% in the second half of August from 47.74% the previous year [4] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South through mid-September fell -0.1% year-on-year to 30.388 million tons [4] Group 3: India's Sugar Production Outlook - The outlook for higher sugar exports from India is negative for sugar prices, with monsoon rains reported at 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, marking the strongest monsoon in 5 years [5] - India's sugar production is projected to increase by +19% year-on-year to 34.9 million tons for the 2025/26 season, following a -17.5% decline in 2024/25 to a 5-year low of 26.2 million tons [6]

Core Insights - Sugar prices are experiencing an upward trend due to lower sugar production signals from Brazil and increased global demand, particularly from Pakistan [1][2] Group 1: Sugar Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 increased by +0.10 (+0.61%), while December London ICE white sugar 5 rose by +0.50 (+0.11%) [1] - NY sugar reached a 1.5-month high, and London sugar hit a 2-week high, driven by stronger global demand [2] Group 2: Brazilian Sugar Production - Brazil's Center-South sugarcane crush saw a decline in sugar content, dropping to 154.58 kg/ton from 160.07 kg/ton year-on-year, indicating lower sugar production [1] - In the first half of September, Brazil's Center-South sugar output increased by +15.7% year-on-year to 3.622 million tons, but cumulative output for 2025-26 fell by -0.1% year-on-year to 30.388 million tons [4] Group 3: Indian Sugar Production Outlook - India's sugar production is projected to rise by +19% year-on-year to 34.9 million tons for the 2025/26 season, following a significant decline in 2024/25 [6] - The Indian Meteorological Department reported cumulative monsoon rainfall of 937.2 mm, which is 8% above normal, suggesting a potential bumper sugar crop [5]

Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 closed up +0.27 (+1.67%) and December London ICE white sugar 5 closed up +5.90 (+1.30%) [1] - NY sugar reached a 1.5-month nearest-futures high, while London sugar climbed to a 2-week high due to stronger global demand [3] - NY sugar posted a 4.25-year nearest-futures low and London sugar a 4-year low, extending a 7-month downtrend due to abundant global sugar supplies [4] Production and Supply Concerns - Brazil's Center South sugarcane crush in the first half of September increased by +6.9% y/y to 46 million metric tons (MMT), but sugar content in the cane declined to 154.58 kg/ton from 160.07 kg/ton a year earlier, indicating lower sugar production [2] - Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the first half of September rose by +15.7% y/y to 3.622 MMT, with the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar increasing to 53.49% from 47.74% the previous year [5] - Cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through mid-September fell -0.1% y/y to 30.388 MMT [5] Global Supply Outlook - StoneX projected a global sugar surplus of +2.8 MMT for the 2025/26 season, a shift from a deficit of -4.7 MMT in the 2024/25 season [4] - India's Meteorological Department reported cumulative monsoon rain of 937.2 mm as of September 30, 8% above normal, indicating a potential bumper sugar crop [6] - India's National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected a +19% y/y increase in sugar production to 34.9 MMT for 2025/26, following a -17.5% y/y decline to a 5-year low of 26.2 MMT in 2024/25 [7]

Core Insights - Sugar prices experienced a significant decline, with March NY world sugar closing down 2.83% and December London ICE white sugar down 3.31% [1][2] Sugar Production Outlook - Thailand's sugar production is projected to increase by 5% year-on-year to 10.5 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 season, contributing to downward pressure on sugar prices [2] - Brazil's Center-South sugar output rose by 18% year-on-year to 3.872 MMT in the second half of August, although cumulative output for 2025-26 through August fell by 1.9% year-on-year to 26.758 MMT [5] - India's potential diversion of 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26 may lead to increased exports, with expectations rising from 2 MMT to 4 MMT [6] Global Sugar Supply and Demand - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a global sugar deficit of 231,000 MT for the 2025/26 season, an improvement from a 4.88 MMT deficit in 2024/25, with global production expected to rise by 3.3% year-on-year to 180.6 MMT [7] - A global sugar surplus of 2.8 MMT is projected for the upcoming 2025/26 season, contrasting with a deficit of 4.7 MMT in the previous season [4]