Core Insights - Sugar prices are experiencing a significant decline, with NY sugar reaching a 3-week low and London sugar hitting a 4.25-year low, driven by increased sugar production forecasts in major producing countries [2][4][6] Group 1: Sugar Production and Supply - Brazil's sugar output in the first half of September increased by 15.7% year-on-year to 3.622 million tons, contributing to the bearish outlook for sugar prices [2] - The cumulative sugar output for Brazil's Center-South region for the 2025-26 season through mid-September fell by 0.1% year-on-year to 30.388 million tons [2] - India's sugar production is projected to rise by 19% year-on-year to 34.9 million tons for the 2025-26 season, following a significant decline in the previous year [4] - Thailand's sugar production is expected to increase by 5% year-on-year to 10.5 million tons for the 2025-26 season, further adding to global supply [6] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Export Outlook - The global sugar market is projected to have a surplus of 10.5 million tons for the 2025/26 season, which is expected to exert downward pressure on prices [3] - India's abundant monsoon rains have led to expectations of a bumper sugar crop, which may negatively impact sugar prices [4] - India's sugar mills may export up to 4 million tons of sugar, exceeding earlier expectations, due to a potential surplus despite plans to divert some sugar for ethanol production [5]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have recently declined after reaching a 1.75-month high, influenced by projections of a global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season [1][2] Group 1: Sugar Price Trends - March NY world sugar 11 closed down -0.18 (-1.07%), while December London ICE white sugar 5 closed down -6.40 (-1.38%) [1] - NY sugar initially climbed to a 1.75-month high due to lower sugar content from Brazil's sugarcane crush [2] - Last month, NY sugar hit a 4.25-year low, and London sugar reached a 4-year low, extending a 7-month downtrend due to abundant global sugar supplies [3] Group 2: Brazil's Sugar Production - Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the first half of September rose by +15.7% year-on-year to 3.622 million tons [4] - The percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil's sugar mills increased to 53.49% in the second half of August from 47.74% the previous year [4] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South through mid-September fell -0.1% year-on-year to 30.388 million tons [4] Group 3: India's Sugar Production Outlook - The outlook for higher sugar exports from India is negative for sugar prices, with monsoon rains reported at 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, marking the strongest monsoon in 5 years [5] - India's sugar production is projected to increase by +19% year-on-year to 34.9 million tons for the 2025/26 season, following a -17.5% decline in 2024/25 to a 5-year low of 26.2 million tons [6]

Core Insights - Sugar prices are experiencing an upward trend due to lower sugar production signals from Brazil and increased global demand, particularly from Pakistan [1][2] Group 1: Sugar Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 increased by +0.10 (+0.61%), while December London ICE white sugar 5 rose by +0.50 (+0.11%) [1] - NY sugar reached a 1.5-month high, and London sugar hit a 2-week high, driven by stronger global demand [2] Group 2: Brazilian Sugar Production - Brazil's Center-South sugarcane crush saw a decline in sugar content, dropping to 154.58 kg/ton from 160.07 kg/ton year-on-year, indicating lower sugar production [1] - In the first half of September, Brazil's Center-South sugar output increased by +15.7% year-on-year to 3.622 million tons, but cumulative output for 2025-26 fell by -0.1% year-on-year to 30.388 million tons [4] Group 3: Indian Sugar Production Outlook - India's sugar production is projected to rise by +19% year-on-year to 34.9 million tons for the 2025/26 season, following a significant decline in 2024/25 [6] - The Indian Meteorological Department reported cumulative monsoon rainfall of 937.2 mm, which is 8% above normal, suggesting a potential bumper sugar crop [5]

Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 closed up +0.27 (+1.67%) and December London ICE white sugar 5 closed up +5.90 (+1.30%) [1] - NY sugar reached a 1.5-month nearest-futures high, while London sugar climbed to a 2-week high due to stronger global demand [3] - NY sugar posted a 4.25-year nearest-futures low and London sugar a 4-year low, extending a 7-month downtrend due to abundant global sugar supplies [4] Production and Supply Concerns - Brazil's Center South sugarcane crush in the first half of September increased by +6.9% y/y to 46 million metric tons (MMT), but sugar content in the cane declined to 154.58 kg/ton from 160.07 kg/ton a year earlier, indicating lower sugar production [2] - Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the first half of September rose by +15.7% y/y to 3.622 MMT, with the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar increasing to 53.49% from 47.74% the previous year [5] - Cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through mid-September fell -0.1% y/y to 30.388 MMT [5] Global Supply Outlook - StoneX projected a global sugar surplus of +2.8 MMT for the 2025/26 season, a shift from a deficit of -4.7 MMT in the 2024/25 season [4] - India's Meteorological Department reported cumulative monsoon rain of 937.2 mm as of September 30, 8% above normal, indicating a potential bumper sugar crop [6] - India's National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected a +19% y/y increase in sugar production to 34.9 MMT for 2025/26, following a -17.5% y/y decline to a 5-year low of 26.2 MMT in 2024/25 [7]

Core Insights - Sugar prices experienced a significant decline, with March NY world sugar closing down 2.83% and December London ICE white sugar down 3.31% [1][2] Sugar Production Outlook - Thailand's sugar production is projected to increase by 5% year-on-year to 10.5 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 season, contributing to downward pressure on sugar prices [2] - Brazil's Center-South sugar output rose by 18% year-on-year to 3.872 MMT in the second half of August, although cumulative output for 2025-26 through August fell by 1.9% year-on-year to 26.758 MMT [5] - India's potential diversion of 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26 may lead to increased exports, with expectations rising from 2 MMT to 4 MMT [6] Global Sugar Supply and Demand - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a global sugar deficit of 231,000 MT for the 2025/26 season, an improvement from a 4.88 MMT deficit in 2024/25, with global production expected to rise by 3.3% year-on-year to 180.6 MMT [7] - A global sugar surplus of 2.8 MMT is projected for the upcoming 2025/26 season, contrasting with a deficit of 4.7 MMT in the previous season [4]

Core Insights - Sugar prices are experiencing a slight increase due to signs of stronger demand, with Pakistan booking 320,000 MT for delivery next month [1] - However, the overall market sentiment remains bearish due to expectations of abundant global supplies, leading to significant price declines in recent months [2][6] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global sugar market is projected to have a surplus of +2.8 MMT for the 2025/26 season, a shift from a deficit of -4.7 MMT in the 2024/25 season [2] - Brazil's sugar output has increased by +18% year-on-year in the second half of August, contributing to the bearish outlook [3] - India's potential diversion of 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production may not alleviate the surplus, prompting increased exports [4] Production Forecasts - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a global sugar deficit of -231,000 MT for the 2025/26 season, improving from a -4.88 MMT shortfall in 2024/25 [5] - Global sugar production is expected to rise by +3.3% year-on-year to 180.6 MMT for the 2025/26 season, while consumption is projected to increase by +0.3% to 180.8 MMT [5] - The USDA anticipates a record global sugar production of +4.7% year-on-year to 189.318 MMT for the 2025/26 season, with ending stocks rising by 7.5% to 41.188 MMT [6]

Core Insights - Sugar prices are declining due to expectations of abundant global supplies, with NY sugar reaching a 4.25-year low and London sugar a 4-year low, continuing a 7-month downtrend [2] Supply and Production - Brazil's sugar output increased by +18% year-on-year in the second half of August, reaching 3.872 million tons, with the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar rising to 54.20% from 48.78% the previous year [3] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South region for 2025-26 through August fell by -1.9% year-on-year to 26.758 million tons [3] - The USDA projected a record global sugar production of 189.318 million tons for 2025/26, an increase of +4.7% year-on-year, with ending stocks at 41.188 million tons, up 7.5% year-on-year [6] Global Sugar Surplus and Deficit Projections - StoneX projected a global sugar surplus of +2.8 million tons for the 2025/26 season, a shift from a deficit of -4.7 million tons in 2024/25 [2] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasted a global sugar deficit of -231,000 tons for the 2025/26 season, improving from a -4.88 million ton shortfall in 2024/25 [5] - Czarnikow projected a 7.5 million ton global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season, the largest in 8 years [6] Impact of India’s Sugar Production - India may divert 4 million tons of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26, which may not alleviate the country's sugar surplus and could lead to exports of up to 4 million tons, exceeding earlier expectations of 2 million tons [4]

Core Insights - Sugar prices are declining due to expectations of abundant global supplies, with NY sugar reaching a 4.25-year low and London sugar a 4-year low, continuing a 7-month downtrend [2] - Projections indicate a global sugar surplus of +2.8 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 season, a significant shift from a deficit of -4.7 MMT in the 2024/25 season [2] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - Brazil's sugar output increased by +18% year-on-year to 3.872 million tons in the second half of August, with the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar rising to 54.20% from 48.78% the previous year [3] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil for the 2025-26 season through August fell by -1.9% year-on-year to 26.758 MMT [3] - India's potential diversion of 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26 may lead to increased exports of up to 4 MMT, surpassing earlier expectations of 2 MMT [4] Group 2: Global Production and Consumption - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a global sugar deficit of -231,000 MT for the 2025/26 season, improving from a -4.88 MMT shortfall in 2024/25, with production expected to rise by +3.3% year-on-year to 180.6 MMT [5] - Global sugar consumption is projected to increase by +0.3% year-on-year to 180.8 MMT for the 2025/26 season [5] Group 3: Market Outlook - Expectations of a 7.5 MMT global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season, the largest in 8 years, are contributing to bearish price sentiments [6] - The USDA projects a record global sugar production of +4.7% year-on-year to 189.318 MMT for the 2025/26 season, with ending stocks expected to rise by 7.5% year-on-year to 41.188 MMT [6] - Abundant monsoon rains in India, reported at 893.8 mm or 7% above normal, may lead to a bumper sugar crop, further impacting prices negatively [7]

October NY world sugar #11 (SBV25) on Monday closed down -0.21 (-1.36%), and December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ25) closed down -4.70 (-1.03%). Sugar prices sold off on Monday, with London sugar posting a new 4-year low.   Sugar prices have been sliding over the past six months, with NY sugar slumping to a 4.25-year nearest-futures low last Thursday on ramped-up sugar production in Brazil.  Last Wednesday, Unica reported that Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the second half of August rose by +18% ...

Core Insights - Sugar prices have declined sharply due to increased production in Brazil, with October NY world sugar closing down 2.26% and December London ICE white sugar down 1.44% [1][2] Production and Supply - Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the second half of August rose by 18% year-on-year to 3.872 million tons, with the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar increasing to 54.20% from 48.78% the previous year [2] - Cumulative sugar output for the 2025-26 season through August fell by 1.9% year-on-year to 26.758 million tons [2] - Brazil's sugar mills are prioritizing sugar production over ethanol, leading to increased cane crushing for sugar as harvesting peaks [5] Export Dynamics - India may divert 4 million tons of sugar to ethanol production in the 2025/26 season, which could lead to an increase in sugar exports, with expectations of up to 4 million tons, surpassing earlier estimates of 2 million tons [3][6] - The Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association has requested permission to export 2 million tons of sugar for the 2025/26 season [6] Market Sentiment - An excessive short position by funds in NY sugar futures could lead to potential gains in a short-covering rally, with net-short positions increasing by 32,849 to 182,608, the highest in nearly six years [4] - The International Sugar Organization forecasts a global sugar deficit of 231,000 tons for the 2025/26 season, marking the sixth consecutive year of deficits, although this is an improvement from a 4.88 million ton shortfall in 2024/25 [7]