Core Insights - Strong retail sales data for August led to a significant increase in Treasury yields, indicating a potential shift in economic outlook and interest rate expectations [1]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The yield on the 2-year Treasury note rose to 3.56% following the retail sales report [1]. - The 10-year Treasury yield increased to 4.06%, reflecting investor reactions to the stronger-than-expected retail sales [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Dow futures experienced a slight decline of less than 0.1%, while S&P 500 futures saw a modest increase of 0.1% [1]. - Nasdaq 100 futures rose by 0.2%, indicating a mixed response across different market indices [1].

RT Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio)EVERY BIG BITCOIN RALLY STARTED WITH THIS SIGNAL 🚨Look at the chart: US 20-Year Treasury Yields (top) vs Bitcoin (bottom).Every time long term yields peaked and reversed lower, Bitcoin exploded:↳ Nov 2023: Yields down → BTC +175%↳ Nov 2024: Yields down → BTC +60%↳ May 2025: Yields down → BTC +48%Now in Sept 2025, the same setup is forming again.20-year bond yields peaked at 5.38% and now going down.$BTC is consolidating around $115K, which is only 8% away from a new ATH.Why doe ...

Group 1: Treasury Yields Overview - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 4.06% as of September 12, 2025, while the 2-year note was at 3.56% and the 30-year note at 4.68% [1] - A long-term view of the 10-year yield shows significant historical context, starting from 1965, including the impact of the 1973 oil embargo [2] Group 2: Inverted Yield Curve and Recession Indicators - An inverted yield curve occurs when longer-term Treasury yields are lower than shorter-term yields, with the 10-2 spread being a reliable leading indicator for recessions [2] - The average lead time to a recession from the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average lead time of 18.5 weeks [4][6] Group 3: Mortgage Rates and Federal Funds Rate - The Federal Funds Rate influences borrowing costs for banks, which typically affects mortgage rates; however, recent trends show mortgage rates declining despite the Fed holding rates steady [7] - The latest Freddie Mac survey reported the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.35%, the lowest since October 2024 [7] Group 4: Treasury ETFs - ETFs associated with Treasuries include Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT), and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) [9]

What goes into determining your mortgage rate. The answer might be more complicated than you think. Mortgage rates closely follow the bond market, especially 10-year Treasury yields.Those yields move for all sorts of reasons, usually based on expectations about the economy and inflation. When the economy looks shaky, bond yields usually fall, and that can make mortgage rates fall, too. On the flip side, when there's really good economic data, bond yields usually rise, and then mortgage rates rise as well. S ...

ETHZilla (Nasdaq: ETHZ) announced it will deploy $100 million worth of ETH into EtherFi, a liquid restaking protocol, to boost treasury yields. The company holds 102,246 ETH, valued at around $456 million.https://t.co/Do8tpe2qwh ...

Market Reaction - S&P 500 index experienced a decline in futures trading [1] - Ten-year Treasury yields saw a slight increase [1] - The market views the combination of falling S&P 500 futures and rising Treasury yields as unfavorable [1]

Treasury yields rose from a three-month low ahead of a key inflation report that may shape market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates as soon as next month https://t.co/Y3Iq2o7vfp ...

Government Debt Issuance - The Treasury is issuing $58 billion in three-year notes [1] - The government aims to increase liquidity following a $5 trillion debt ceiling increase [1] - A record $100 billion four-week bill auction is expected on Thursday [1][2] - The Treasury issued $50 billion in one-year bills, the second largest ever [2] - A $85 billion six-week bill auction occurred, the largest ever [2] Bond Market Dynamics - The size of auctions keeps growing or staying at historically high levels [3] - The administration is issuing shorter bills due to the optimistic view that interest rates will decrease [4] - Prices paid for the three-year auction were just under 70, almost the highest in three years [4] - Short maturity treasury yields did not reflect the weak ISM data, unlike longer-term yields [5] - The yield curve flattened, contrasting with the steepening observed on Friday [5]

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party content intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - Users are advised to perform their own research and consider their financial situation before making decisions [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1]. - It encourages users to understand how these instruments work and the associated risks before investing [1].

Federal Reserve Policy & Presidential Influence - The President desires lower interest rates and expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) to align with his objectives, despite potential conflicts with sound monetary policy [1][2] - The President might replace the Fed chair with a more dovish nominee to achieve his desired policy outcomes [2] - A Fed that prioritizes the President's agenda over its independence could negatively impact the dollar's value due to concerns about biased policy and currency debasement [3] Potential Treasury Actions - The President may instruct the Treasury to intervene in the bond market to suppress long-term yields [4] - The Treasury could reduce long-term bond issuance by 25%, which would have a similar impact to the Fed's largest monthly quantitative easing (QE) program [5] - Decreasing bond supply could keep yields low, but might also lead to inflation and accelerated economic growth [7] Market Implications - Actions to control bond yields could lead to rallies in stocks, gold, and Bitcoin, potentially weakening the dollar [6] - Starving the market for duration through reduced bond supply could maintain low yields if demand for Treasury bonds remains strong [7]