You say earnings the season we're into now and into next week's tech extravaganza. Is the catalyst to break out of a range. So many disagree with that.Yeah, well, earnings have been the key reason why this market has been so very resilient. If you're revising up earnings estimates, it does something really powerful because not only are you increasing your estimates for profits, but you're also providing the environment to be able to expand multiples. Multiples go up when you are revising estimates higher.Th ...

LIVE Stocks Hold Steady as Earnings Reports Pile In By Connor Smith The stock market wasn't moving much on Tuesday despite another wave of strong earnings reports. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 47 points, or 0.1%. The S&P 500 was flat. The Nasdaq Composite was down slightly. The yield on the 2-year Treasury note was down to 3.46%. The 10-year yield was down to 3.96%. Topics Memberships Dow Wavers as Earnings Season Gathers Pace Last Updated: 28 min ago The Wall Street Journal MarketWatch Investor' ...

Group 1: Treasury Yields and Economic Indicators - The 10-year Treasury note yield fell below 4.00% for the first time in over a year, ending at 4.02%, while the 2-year note reached its lowest level since September 2022 at 3.46% [1] - An inverted yield curve, where longer-term Treasury yields are lower than shorter-term yields, is considered a reliable leading indicator for recessions, with the 10-2 spread turning negative before recessions [3][4] - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average lead time of 18.5 weeks [5][7] Group 2: Mortgage Rates and Federal Funds Rate - The Federal Funds Rate (FFR) influences borrowing costs for banks, which typically leads to higher mortgage rates when the FFR increases; however, recent trends show mortgage rates declining despite the Fed holding rates steady [8] - The latest Freddie Mac Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.27% [8] Group 3: Market Behavior and Federal Reserve Influence - Federal Reserve policy has significantly influenced market behavior, particularly in relation to Treasury yields and the S&P 500 [9]

>> SCARLET: BLOOMBERG REAL YIELD STARTS RIGHT NOW. SCARLET: COMING UP, A FED FALLING IN LOCKSTEP TO SUPPORT THE LABOR MARKET DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF OFFICIAL DATA. A QUICK WARNING ABOUT COCKROACHES PUTS THE CREDIT MARKET UNDER A MICROSCOPE.TRIGGERING A FLIGHT TO SAFETY AND SENDING TREASURY YIELDS LOWER. WE BEGIN WITH THE BIG ISSUE, THE FED'S NEXT MOVE. >> TO A CERTAIN EXTENT WE ARE FLYING BLIND RIGHT NOW.>> MACRO DYNAMICS ARE STILL A LITTLE UNCLEAR. >> WE HAVE A SLOWING IN TERMS OF THE ECONOMY. >> WE HAVE A ...

Labor Market Analysis - Haver Analytics estimates weekly jobless claims at 217,000 for the week of October 11th, compared to the government's 228,000 [1] - Continuing claims are estimated to be up at 1.942 million versus 1.92 million [2] - The economy is characterized as a relatively low fire, low hire environment, with no significant changes since the government stopped publishing data [4] - Goldman Sachs reports similar jobless claim numbers [5] Financial Market Conditions - Secured Overnight Funding Rate (SOFR) is at one-month highs, indicating a clamor for high-quality collateral and tightness in the financial market [11][12] - The rise in SOFR is reversing the effect of the Fed's rate cut on September 17th [13] - The fiscal year ended with 1.22 trillion to service the debt [16] Monetary Policy and Market Outlook - There's a divergence between jobless claims data and the Fed's concerns about the labor market [8] - The relationship between stocks and treasury yields is influenced by a "flight to good collateral" [9] - The current situation is not comparable to the great credit crisis [10] - Chairman Powell mentioned the possibility of ending quantitative tightening in the coming months due to some tightening in financial markets [17]

Five-year Treasury yields dropped to a one-year low as concerns surrounding US regional banks and lingering trade tensions fueled a flight to safety https://t.co/nO8ux2VXyU ...

Market Volatility & Earnings Season - Market volatility has returned as earnings season begins [1][2] - Initial bank earnings were positive, with Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan recovering from lows, and Wells Fargo performing strongly [2] - The start of earnings season is expected to be generally positive [3] - Treasury yields are down, boosting rate-sensitive sectors like home builders, which are up 3% [6] Market Trends & Sentiment - A broad reversal occurred, benefiting indexes and riskier assets like small caps and unprofitable companies [4] - A "mechanical dip buy" occurred in the morning, with retail investors supporting the market near Friday's low and the 50-day moving average [4] - The market is attempting to digest macro risks without overreacting, acknowledging that the backdrop is not perfect [6] - The market is expected to continue to experience choppiness [6] - Tech power and the AI theme are expected to continue driving markets higher [7] - Dips caused by social media posts and geopolitical risks are viewed as potential buying opportunities [7] Risk Factors - Social media posts from the president pose a risk to the market [1] - Trade headlines initially disrupted the low volatility upward trend [5] - The market has not fully cleared away risky, speculative assets [5]

Group 1: Treasury Yields Overview - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note ended at 4.05% on October 10, 2025, while the 2-year note was at 3.53% and the 30-year note at 4.63% [1] - A long-term view of the 10-year yield shows significant historical context, starting from 1965, prior to the 1973 oil embargo [2] - The inverted yield curve, where longer-term yields are lower than shorter-term yields, is a reliable leading indicator for recessions, with the 10-2 spread turning negative before recessions [2][3] Group 2: Recession Indicators - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average of 18.5 weeks [4] - The 10-3 month spread also indicates a lead time to recessions ranging from 34 to 69 weeks, with similar patterns observed as in the 10-2 spread [5] - The most recent negative spread for the 10-3 month occurred from October 25, 2022, to December 12, 2024, with fluctuations between positive and negative since February 26 [5][6] Group 3: Mortgage Rates and Federal Funds Rate - The Federal Funds Rate (FFR) influences borrowing costs for banks, which in turn affects mortgage rates; however, recent trends show mortgage rates declining despite the Fed holding rates steady [7] - The latest Freddie Mac survey indicates the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.30% [7] Group 4: Market Behavior and Federal Reserve Influence - Federal Reserve policy has been a significant factor in market behavior, particularly regarding Treasury yields and their relationship with the S&P 500 [8]

Group 1: Treasury Yields Overview - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note ended at 4.13% on October 3, 2025, while the 2-year note was at 3.58% and the 30-year note at 4.71% [1] - A long-term view of the 10-year yield shows significant historical context, starting from 1965, highlighting the impact of events like the 1973 oil embargo [2] - The inverted yield curve, where longer-term yields are lower than shorter-term yields, is a reliable leading indicator for recessions, with the 10-2 spread turning negative before recessions [2][3] Group 2: Recession Indicators - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average lead time of 18.5 weeks [4][6] - The 10-3 month spread also indicates recession lead times ranging from 34 to 69 weeks, with similar patterns observed in past recessions [5] Group 3: Mortgage Rates and Federal Funds Rate - The Federal Funds Rate influences borrowing costs for banks, which in turn affects mortgage rates; however, recent trends show mortgage rates declining despite the Fed holding rates steady [7] - The latest Freddie Mac survey reported the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.34% [7] Group 4: Market Behavior and Federal Reserve Influence - Federal Reserve policy has been a significant factor in market behavior, particularly in relation to Treasury yields and the S&P 500 [8]

Core Insights - US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, indicating cautious expectations for investment returns [1] Market Valuation (P/E10) and Inflation - The P/E10 ratio is a key indicator of market valuation and its correlation with inflation shows crucial patterns across three distinct periods: January 1881 to December 2007, January 2008 to February 2020, and March 2020 to present [2] - The current P/E10 stands at 38.6, with a year-over-year inflation rate of 3.05%, placing it just outside the historical "sweet spot" of 1.4% to 3.0% inflation, which has supported higher market valuations [3] Market Valuation (P/E10) and the 10-Year Treasury Yield - The correlation between P/E10 and the 10-year Treasury yield has been examined since 1960, revealing that the post-financial crisis period saw P/E10 ratios above 20 with yields below 2.5%, deviating from historical patterns [4][5] - The current yield of 4.12% suggests a shift away from the unprecedented low yield environment towards a scenario reminiscent of the tech bubble [5] Historical Context - The historical average P/E10 is 17.6, providing a benchmark for current valuations, which are currently in extreme valuation territory [6] - The inflation "sweet spot" is highlighted as a range historically associated with higher valuations, while the current P/E10 and inflation rate are marked for comparative analysis [6][7]