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U.S. Treasury yields rise in midday European trade as investors turn cautious about prospects for U.S. interest-rate cuts, even as the Federal Reserve is widely expected to reduce rates on Wednesday.The 30-year Treasury yield rises to a three-month high of 4.811%, LSEG data show. Money markets price a 86% probability of a 25-basis point rate cut this week, according to LSEG, but investors are concerned that the Fed could be cautious about the outlook. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's accompanying comments could af ...

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Core Insights - US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, leading to cautious expectations for investment returns [1] Market Valuation - Monthly market valuation updates consistently indicate overvaluation in US stock indexes [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Global Research anticipates a stronger global economy entering 2026, driven by robust growth in the U.S. and China, ongoing AI investments, and a shift in market leadership [1][2] Economic Growth - U.S. GDP growth is projected at 2.4% for 2026, exceeding consensus, supported by fiscal policies and business investments [3][4] - China's GDP growth is upgraded to 4.7% for 2026, with positive trade developments and stimulus measures contributing to this outlook [8] AI Investment - The AI investment cycle is expected to continue its upward trajectory, with significant capital expenditures in data centers, chips, and automation driving GDP growth [5][6] - Concerns about an AI bubble are deemed overstated by Bank of America [2][5] Emerging Markets - Emerging markets are likely to benefit from a weaker U.S. dollar and lower U.S. interest rates, easing financing pressures and enhancing capital flows [7] Corporate Earnings - S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise by 14% in 2026, but price gains are projected to be limited to 4%-5% [9] Treasury Yields - Treasury yields may fall more than anticipated, with projections for the 10-year yield to be between 4% and 4.25% due to expected Fed rate cuts [10] Housing Market - National home prices are expected to remain flat in 2026, with potential upside risks due to lower mortgage rates [11] Market Volatility - Increased volatility is anticipated in 2026 as the impact of AI on economic fundamentals becomes clearer [12] Private Credit - Returns on private credit are expected to moderate to about 5.4% in 2026, down from approximately 9% in 2025 [13] Commodity Outlook - Copper prices are projected to remain strong in 2026, supported by tight supply and improved global demand [14]

Core Insights - U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar are rising despite trading disruptions caused by a technical outage at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) [1][2] - The CME outage is affecting futures trading, while the dollar is performing well against other G-10 currencies, with the DXY dollar index increasing by 0.2% to 99.772 [2] Treasury Yields - Treasury yields have increased by up to 3 basis points across various maturities [2] - The spreads between bid and ask levels remain wide, indicating thin trading conditions due to the CME outage and the recent U.S. Thanksgiving holiday [2]

Core Insights - U.S. Treasury yields are experiencing a decline due to disappointing consumer confidence data [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The fall in Treasury yields is linked to a decrease in U.S. consumer confidence, indicating potential economic concerns [1]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are experiencing gains ahead of Nvidia's earnings report and upcoming labor data [2] - August's trade deficit was narrower than expected, which is seen as a positive indicator for Q3 GDP as it suggests more U.S. spending on domestic goods and services [2] - Treasury yields have bounced back from an early decline, indicating an improved market sentiment on Wall Street [1]

Core Viewpoint - Treasury yields remained relatively stable as the release of official economic indicators is set to resume [1] Group 1 - Treasury yields showed little change, indicating a period of stability in the bond market [1]

Core Insights - Treasury yields increased as the U.S. government reopened, indicating a shift in investor sentiment and market dynamics [1] Group 1 - The reopening of the U.S. government has led to a rise in Treasury yields, reflecting changes in the bond market [1] - There are ongoing uncertainties regarding upcoming important data releases, which may impact future market movements [1]