Core Viewpoint - A bipartisan group of former top US economic officials has filed a brief to the Supreme Court in support of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, emphasizing the importance of protecting Federal Reserve independence for the global economy [1][2][3] Group 1: Importance of Federal Reserve Independence - The document highlights the historical consequences of compromising central bank independence, which often leads to higher inflation and interest rates due to political interference [5][6] - Examples from history, such as the collaboration between Nixon and Arthur Burns, are cited to illustrate the detrimental effects of undermining Fed independence, resulting in double-digit inflation [6] Group 2: Current Economic Indicators - Recent economic data indicates cracks in the labor market, with payroll growth averaging under 30,000 per month, which is below break-even levels [13] - The unemployment rate is slowly nudging up to 4.3%, with the black unemployment rate increasing from 6% in May to 7.5% [14] Group 3: Rate Cut Considerations - There is a belief that an October rate cut is likely due to the weakening labor market, although caution is advised regarding a potential December cut due to persistent inflation and stronger-than-expected consumer spending [15]

Economic Outlook & Investment Strategy - KKR认为美国正在经历类似于1990年代的生产力繁荣，这能够支持更高的工资、承受关税对利润率的影响，并最终推动收入增长 [8][9] - KKR的基本观点是，美国经济将继续以1.5%到2%的速度增长，并且可能略有上升 [14] - KKR预计美联储今年将降息两次，明年将降息三次，以支持市场 [15][28] - KKR认为企业正在继续增加资本支出，消费者状况良好，因此当前市场水平相对安全 [16] Sector & Regional Analysis - AI资本支出增长超过了个人消费的所有增长，这是一个巨大的变化 [3] - 亚洲市场（尤其是韩国和日本）存在投资机会，这些市场的估值较低，且企业正在进行改革 [17][18][19] - 亚洲内部贸易正在增长，预计将从目前的48%-50%增长到70%，类似于欧洲和美洲的水平，这将推动物流基础设施的发展 [22][23] Risks & Concerns - 如果AI领域的回报率下降过快，可能会对GDP产生影响 [26] - 如果失业率大幅上升至5.5%，将对经济体系造成冲击 [26] - 低收入消费者正在感受到更高通胀的影响，一些杠杆实体因利率上升而面临压力 [15] Labor Market Dynamics - 政府部门就业岗位的减少和医疗保健及教育行业的窄幅关注可能会导致政府数据表现不佳 [10] - KKR观察到企业招聘速度放缓，但没有出现大规模裁员 [11] - 如果不是因为特朗普政府限制了劳动力供应，失业率可能会接近5% [12]

In the labor market, there has been a marked slowdown in both the supply of and the demand for workers, an unusual and challenging development. In this less dynamic and somewhat softer labor market, the downside risks to employment have risen. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.3% in August, but has remained relatively stable at a low level over the past year.Payroll job gains slowed sharply over summer months as employers added an average of just 29,000 per month over the past three months. The recent pac ...

While the unemployment rate remains low, it has edged up. Job gains have slowed and downside risks to employment have risen. At the same time, inflation has risen recently and remains somewhat elevated.In support of our goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks, today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower our policy interest rate by a quarter percentage point. We also decided to continue to reduce our securities holdings. I'll have more to say about monetary policy after briefly r ...

While the unemployment rate remains low, it has edged up. Job gains have slowed and downside risks to employment have risen. At the same time, inflation has risen recently and remains somewhat elevated.In support of our goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks, today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower our policy interest rate by a quarter percentage point. We also decided to continue to reduce our securities holdings. ...

like a. >> Big I can't tell you how excited I am. >> When was the last time we talked about the dynamics.>> I'm in. I'm I'm on the edge of my seat. >> Exactly.All right. Let's talk more about it. Joining us is Claudia Sardine, New Century Advisors chief economist and a former fed economist.Claudia, that that will be interesting, right. We'll see who dissents. We'll see how divergent the dot plots are.What are you looking for. >> Yeah. And I want to underscore that even in normal times, like we would expect ...

Summary of Key Points from the FOMC Preview Industry Overview - The document pertains to the North American economic outlook, specifically focusing on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and its monetary policy decisions. Core Insights and Arguments - **Rate Cut Expectations**: The FOMC is anticipated to implement a 25 basis point (bp) rate cut at the upcoming meeting, marking the beginning of a series of quarterly "insurance cuts" [5][9][30] - **Cautious Approach to Inflation**: Despite the expected rate cuts, core FOMC members are likely to adopt a cautious stance regarding inflation risks, indicating a gradual approach to easing [5][30] - **Economic Projections**: The median unemployment rate projection for 2025 is expected to remain at 4.5%, with GDP estimates showing a modest upward revision to 1.6% from 1.4% [11][25] - **Dissenting Opinions**: There are expected to be four dissents regarding the decision to cut rates, with some members advocating for a larger 50 bp cut due to recent labor market data [9][28][30] Important but Potentially Overlooked Details - **Labor Market Dynamics**: Despite a slowdown in the labor market, layoffs have remained low, and the unemployment rate has only gradually increased, suggesting that officials may not react strongly to weak non-farm payroll (NFP) data as long as unemployment remains contained [13][18] - **Inflation Risks**: The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation forecast for 2025 is expected to hold steady at 3.1%, but there are concerns about persistent inflation pressures, particularly in labor-intensive services [19][27] - **Long-Term Projections**: The 2026 median dot is likely to decline to 3.375%, reflecting expectations for additional rate cuts in the following year [7][10] - **Market Reactions**: The markets have priced in aggressive easing in response to disappointing labor data, but the FOMC's cautious approach may temper expectations for rapid rate reductions [5][30] Conclusion - The FOMC's upcoming meeting is set against a backdrop of a slowing labor market and inflation concerns, leading to a cautious yet proactive monetary policy stance. The anticipated rate cut is seen as a necessary measure to manage economic risks while maintaining a focus on inflation and employment stability.

Economic Outlook - The S&P year-end target is set at 6,600, indicating limited upside potential but also no significant downside risk from current levels [1] - A potential 5 to 10% market pullback is anticipated in September due to various catalysts, including trade uncertainty [2] Labor Market Dynamics - The unemployment rate for the 18 to 34 demographic stands at approximately 10%, raising concerns about job creation for new college graduates [4] - The labor market's weakness is attributed to trade uncertainties and the impact of artificial intelligence on entry-level job availability [3] - The current job creation requirement to maintain stable unemployment is estimated at 150,000 jobs per month, but the new normal may be reduced to 50,000 to 75,000 jobs, with current figures falling below this threshold [5] Demographic Changes - The retirement of 11,000 baby boomers each month contributes to workforce demographic challenges [4] - A decline in immigration further complicates the labor market situation, impacting job availability and unemployment rates [5]

Welcome to Meet the Press Now. I'm Kristen Welker in Washington where any minute now we are expecting to hear from President Trump. For the first time since today's jobs report showed a dramatic slowdown in the labor market and potential warning signs for the president's economic agenda.The August jobs report from the Labor Department showed just 22,000 new jobs created last month, much lower than economists were expecting, and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%. Even more problematic, the Labor Depart ...

Economic Indicators & Market Reaction - August新增就业岗位仅22,000个 [1] - 失业率小幅上升至4.3% [2] - 纽约时报报道，由于高利率和特朗普政府的关税等经济政策，经济自疫情高峰期以来一直在降温 [2] - 股市最初希望美联储降息而上涨，但随后因担心经济衰退而下跌，道琼斯指数下跌超过200点 [2] Policy Impact & Analysis - 报告认为，就业市场和更广泛的经济放缓是政策导致的，受到关税、移民政策和政府削减开支的影响 [3][4] - 特朗普政府的政策被指责为“自残行为”，与此前专家预测的软着陆（核心通胀率接近2%，经济增长率接近2.5%）背道而驰 [10][11] - 关税和移民政策导致经济放缓的同时，通货膨胀也在上升，对普通民众造成双重打击 [14] Job Market Details - 6月份劳动力市场减少了13,000个工作岗位，是自2020年12月以来的首次负增长 [2] - 前两个月的就业数据被下调了21,000个 [2] - 在过去的四个月里，平均每月新增就业岗位为29,000个 [12] - 如果不包括医疗保健等行业，建筑业和制造业等领域实际上已经损失了142,000个工作岗位 [13] Political Context & Credibility - 特朗普政府被指责歪曲经济数据，前劳工统计局局长因公布“真实数据”而被解雇 [2] - 特朗普声称至少一年内不会有“真实数据” [2] - 劳工统计局的数据收集方式没有改变，数据是真实的，但特朗普政府的政策是经济放缓的原因 [2][3]