Inflation & Monetary Policy - The speaker initially anticipated rate cuts over the year, projecting inflation heading towards 2% with full employment, aligning with the FOMC's mandate [1] - Increased uncertainty and "dirt in the air," largely attributed to tariffs, have complicated the outlook [2] - The central bank is grappling with the possibility of a persistent inflation shock or stagflation, a scenario lacking a clear playbook [3] - The key question is whether the stagflationary shocks are temporary or ongoing due to new policy administrations [4] Economic Uncertainty - Tariffs are not a one-time price increase, unlike the initial theory suggested [2] - Determining a return to the pre-April 2nd path hinges on resolving the uncertainty surrounding stagflationary shocks and policy changes [4]

Employment Trends - "Mum jobs" (为有年幼子女的人群提供的灵活工作) 在中国数量增长[1] Social Commentary - 针对 "Mum jobs" 的负面评价或反对声浪也在增加[1]

Monetary Policy Outlook - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the September meeting [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) data reinforces expectations of a rate cut, focusing on the magnitude rather than the likelihood [2] - The Fed's decision to cut rates is primarily driven by concerns about employment, despite stalled disinflation [2] Dual Mandate Considerations - The Fed's weighting of its dual mandate (employment and inflation) depends on proximity to goals; with inflation closer to target, employment concerns gain importance [4][5] - Historically, the Fed tends to act more decisively when concerned about employment [4] - Some Fed speakers express reservations about inflation remaining a persistent problem [6] Risks and Uncertainties - Tariffs potentially seeping into prices could cause inflation to rise, complicating the Fed's policy decisions [8] - The Fed is willing to accept stalled disinflation to a certain extent, but dislikes it, tempering enthusiasm for rate cuts [9]

Economic Data Impact - Major economic data released this morning has negatively impacted trading futures, with the Dow dropping from +3 points to -180 points, the S&P 500 from -1 to -30 points, and the Nasdaq from +7 to -140 points [1] Producer Price Index (PPI) - Headline PPI increased by 90 basis points from 0.0% to +0.9% for July, with core PPI also rising by 90 basis points month over month [2] - Year-over-year headline PPI reached +3.3%, up from an upwardly revised +2.4% for June, while core PPI soared to +3.7% [3] Jobless Claims - Weekly Jobless Claims decreased by 3,000 to 224,000, remaining below 230,000 for six consecutive weeks [5] - Continuing Claims stood at 1.953 million, down 15,000 from the previous week, marking the 12th consecutive week above 1.9 million [6] Earnings Reports - Deere & Co. reported fiscal Q3 earnings of $4.75 per share, beating consensus estimates by 7.8%, but shares fell by 6% due to softer full-year guidance [8] - JD.com reported earnings of 69 cents per share, a 38% positive surprise, while Weibo exceeded estimates by 100% with earnings of 54 cents per share [9]

Australian employment rose by 24,500 in July, driven entirely by full-time roles https://t.co/bJUh0foUNK ...

Employment Market - UK employment plunge showed signs of easing in July [1] - Labour's tax increases for businesses may be ending the jobs market shake-out [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Global Economy**: The conference focused on the global economic outlook, emphasizing the importance of macroeconomic indicators in understanding economic trends [1][4]. Core Economic Insights - **GDP Growth Projections**: - The US and China are experiencing the sharpest growth slowdowns among the regions covered, with the US projected to grow at 1.0% in 2025 and China at 4.2% [5][8]. - Euro Area growth is expected to be 0.9% in 2025, while Japan is forecasted at 0.5% [8]. - Selected emerging markets like India are projected to grow at 6.5% [8]. - **Inflation Trends**: - A divergence in global disinflation is noted, with the US experiencing a short-term tariff boost to inflation, but a downward trend is expected to continue thereafter [9][11]. - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to maintain a pause in interest rate changes through 2025, while other developed market central banks are expected to ease [11][14]. - **Tariff Impacts**: - A 30% tariff rate on imports from China is currently in effect, which is expected to boost inflation over the summer [20][25]. - The effective tax rate has decreased to 13% since "Liberation Day" [22]. Employment and Labor Market - **Job Market Pressures**: - The job market remains under pressure, with payroll breakevens expected to drop to 70,000 per month in 2025 and 2026 due to rising deportations [29][66]. - Manufacturing production declines have been accompanied by falling payrolls [50]. Regional Economic Insights - **China's Economic Conditions**: - Persistent deflation is expected, with entrenched PPI deflation and low CPI inflation continuing [60][64]. - Consumption improvements are likely to be driven by policy measures, and the housing supply-demand balance has improved significantly in tier-1 cities [69][64]. - **Japan's Economic Outlook**: - Japan's nominal GDP is on a gradual growth trajectory, with base wage payments trending around 3% [85][87]. - The economy is not expected to experience runaway inflation or a return to deflation [88]. - **Euro Area Challenges**: - The Euro Area is projected to see GDP slowing year-on-year until Q1 2026, influenced by various shocks [52]. - The ECB is expected to cut rates to 1.5% by the end of the year [44]. Additional Insights - **Global Supply Chain Dynamics**: - China remains central in the global supply chain, with a stable global export share despite a declining share in the US market [72][74]. - The diversification of China's supply chain with new export destinations is noted, particularly in green products [77]. - **Political Uncertainty**: - Political uncertainty in Japan is highlighted, particularly regarding the outcomes of the 2024 Lower House elections [88]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the global economic outlook, regional economic conditions, and the implications of tariffs and inflation on various markets.

Canada’s labor market fell back to earth with a sharp drop in employment in July, putting a spotlight on the challenges the country’s job seekers continue to face https://t.co/NgdqWHV7AN ...

Meet America’s Best Employers For Women 2025 https://t.co/2kdMEh5KC4 ...

An index of U.S. employment fell to its lowest point since October last year, as concerns rise about the resilience of the jobs market after large downward revisions to official data https://t.co/ywjB7qE6ih ...