🚨 JUST IN: FED OFFICIALS CALL FOR RATE CUTS IN OCTOBERWALLER: "Rate cut is the right thing to do"WALLER: "We can cut 25 bps, see what happens next"MIRAN: "Fed should cut 50 bps but expect 25 bps"MIRAN: "25 bps is too slow a pace"Probability for a 25 bps cut = 95% ...

Market Trends & Economic Outlook - The labor market shows downside risks due to declines in both labor supply and demand [1] - Asian stocks rebounded after three days of losses, driven by optimism for a potential Fed rate cut in October [1] - A weakening dollar is expected, with a potential depreciation of 4% to 6% in 2026 [2] - Increased market volatility is expected due to known and unknown factors, including the upcoming apex summit and tariff-related uncertainties [2] Trade War & Geopolitical Tensions - The U S may stop importing Chinese cooking oil in retaliation for Beijing's refusal to buy American soybeans [1] - China's curbs on rare earth exports, materials needed for fighter jets and electric vehicles, are a key negotiation tool [1] - The real conflict between the U S and China will be over the weaponization of artificial intelligence [3] Investment Strategies & Opportunities - Investors are derisking and taking some risk off the table due to factors including 100% official tariffs [1] - Opportunities are being found in Asia, particularly in Korea, related to the AI ecosystem and chip manufacturing [2] - High-tech manufacturing and technology sectors in China are attractive investment areas, driven by the growth of the middle class [4] - Gold is seen as an interesting proposition for portfolio diversification, with potential for higher prices due to bank buying and strong retail demand [2] U S Submarine Industrial Base - The U S is facing a massive issue with its submarine industrial base, with next-generation submarine programs facing delays [6] - The Columbia Class submarines are facing delays of 12-17 months, and Virginia Class attack submarines are facing delays of 24-36 months [6] - The U S Navy needs to hire 140,000 workers over the next decade to meet the growing need for submarine construction and maintenance [6]

Copper rebounded after Fed Chair Jerome Powell flagged another US rate cut and traders said a price of $12,000 a ton is within reach https://t.co/sUQpsY7fJB ...

Rate-cut hopes are kept alive and more motor finance pain for Close Brothers -- get briefed ahead of your morning calls with The London Rush https://t.co/wD8HGctNwB ...

Got to start with that Nvidia news. The idea of uh Chinese regulators and the government cracking down on on chip imports of Nvidia's chips. Uh what that could mean for the broader markets especially considering the waiting of Nvidia.>> Yeah, I mean obviously it's not good news. I mean we we saw some of the the news uh about rare earths a couple days ago as well. I I think putting the screws uh to the US a little bit ahead of the next round of negotiations u makes a lot of sense.you know, as far as Nvidia, ...

Market Sentiment & Prediction - The market might experience new All-Time Highs (ATHs) following rate cut news, potentially causing bears to change their "cycle top" predictions [1] - A subsequent aggressive market downturn could lead bears to reinstate their "cycle top" calls [1] - A major rally across major cryptocurrencies, altcoins, and memecoins is anticipated, potentially driving prices to extremely high levels [1]

Group 1: Dollar Index and Economic Commentary - The dollar index (DXY00) has increased by +0.40%, reaching a 1.5-week high, driven by hawkish comments from Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid regarding the need to combat persistent inflation [1][3] - Political uncertainty in France and Japan is negatively impacting the euro and yen, thereby benefiting the dollar [1] - The ongoing US government shutdown, now in its second week, poses a bearish outlook for the dollar, with potential stagnation in GDP growth if the shutdown continues [2] Group 2: Eurozone Economic Indicators - The EUR/USD pair has decreased by -0.42%, remaining just above a 1.5-week low, influenced by signs of weakness in the Eurozone economy, particularly following a decline in German factory orders [4] - German factory orders for August unexpectedly fell by -0.8% month-over-month, contrasting with expectations of a +1.2% increase [5] - Market expectations for a rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) are minimal, with only a 1% chance of a -25 basis point cut at the upcoming policy meeting [5] Group 3: Japanese Yen Performance - The USD/JPY pair has risen by +0.44%, with the yen hitting a 6.25-month low against the dollar, primarily due to concerns over the election of Sanae Takaichi as the leader of Japan's ruling party [6] - Takaichi's election raises doubts about the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) timeline for policy tightening and increases concerns regarding a potential rise in debt supply due to her support for expanded financial stimulus [6]

Group 1 - The upcoming auction is expected to perform well, with a tendency for the market to push yields higher [1] - Current bond rates present buying opportunities, despite concerns about the government shutdown impacting GDP [2][3] - Historical data shows that past government shutdowns have not significantly affected market movements, indicating a temporary impact [3] Group 2 - Corporate bond spreads are historically tight, suggesting high prices and potential for losses in the coming year [4][5] - Investment in high-quality corporate bonds is recommended to maintain value, but overall losses are anticipated [6] - Mortgage-backed securities are highlighted as a better investment option due to low coupon rates and favorable prepayment conditions [7][8] Group 3 - The economy is perceived as strong due to AI and capital expenditure, but concerns about a slowdown are emerging [9][11] - Various economic indicators, including housing and wage growth, are showing signs of decline, prompting expectations for rate cuts by the Fed [11][12] - The stock market's strength is viewed as an illusion, with skepticism about the profitability of AI investments in the near future [13][14]

Company Developments - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) announced a multi-year deal to supply artificial intelligence chips to OpenAI, which has the potential to generate billions of dollars in revenue for AMD. OpenAI also has the option to purchase up to 10% of AMD [5]. - AMD's stock surged more than 20% in premarket trading following the announcement of the deal with OpenAI [5]. Market Trends - The Dow and S&P 500 set records, marking the seventh winning week in the last nine, with the S&P 500 up 14.2%, the Dow up 9.9%, and the Nasdaq up 18% year-to-date [2]. - Investors are currently focused on the probability of a rate cut, viewing the government shutdown as a temporary political issue that is not significantly impacting market sentiment [3]. - The merger between Fifth Third Bank and Comerica, valued at approximately $10.9 billion, is contributing to a positive market outlook [5].

The equity markets resumed their ascent last week, as all three major indexes rose more than 1%, shrugging off the government shutdown. Without official employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Wall Street took its cue from ADP, which reported a decline of 32,000 private-sector jobs in September. Traders are now pricing in a nearly 100% chance of a quarter-point rate cut at the Federal Open Market Committee's late October meeting. ...