Inflation and Interest Rate Expectations - Consumer sentiment has decreased for the first time since April due to rising inflation expectations [1] - The market is actively repricing expectations from the Federal Reserve (FED) for the September 17th meeting [5] - There is a wide range of expectations regarding potential rate cuts, from no urgency to a cut of 100 basis points this year [2][3] - The University of Michigan indicates consumers expect inflation to rise, causing market reactions [3] - The current level of policy rates, 425% to 450%, is considered modestly restrictive [7] - Some analysts suggest the FED funds rate should be around 260%, while others disagree, citing inflationary risks [9] - The market is pricing out the prospect of a rate cut in September, but the next payrolls report is crucial [15] - FED Chair Powell is expected to balance the dual mandate, acknowledging the distance from the inflation target while opening the door to potential rate cuts [19][20] Credit Market Dynamics - Monday saw the most active day in credit deals and volume in three months, though sales fell $9 million short of weekly predictions [26] - High-yield credit market is experiencing a supply boom, with the busiest start since 2021 [26] - Fundamentals are considered strong, with high-quality spread products making sense due to solid consumer fundamentals [27] - Corporate sector is showing resilience, allowing selective movement down in credit quality [29] - Demand dynamics are robust across the credit spectrum, supported by light issuance and inflows into ETFs and mutual funds [30][34] - Geopolitical issues are considered more of an equity market story than a credit market story [40]

Cryptocurrency Market Overview - Bitcoin has reached a new all-time high of over $124,000, although it retreated to $120,000 shortly after [1][10] - Experts predict that the rally for Bitcoin is likely to continue, with expectations of new highs in the coming months [1][10] - The cryptocurrency market is currently valued at nearly $4 trillion, while the U.S. retirement market is approximately $43 trillion, with $9 trillion in 401(k) plans [6] Economic Factors Influencing Bitcoin - A recent producer price index (PPI) report showed a 0.9% increase month-over-month in July, which was higher than the expected 0.2%, causing some uncertainty regarding a potential Federal Reserve rate cut [3] - The consumer price index (CPI) rose only 0.2% in July, lower than the anticipated 0.3%, which has contributed to market optimism regarding a possible rate cut [4][5] - There is a 92.6% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, which is seen as a positive factor for Bitcoin's momentum [5] Investment Opportunities in Crypto-Focused Stocks - Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR), Robinhood Markets (HOOD), and PayPal Holdings (PYPL) are identified as stocks with strong growth potential due to their involvement in the cryptocurrency market [2] - IBKR has an expected earnings growth rate of 11.4% for the current year, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate improvement of 11.4% over the last 60 days [8] - HOOD is projected to have a 39.5% earnings growth rate for the current year, with a 23.6% improvement in earnings estimates over the past 60 days [12] - PYPL's expected earnings growth rate is 10.8%, with a 2.6% improvement in earnings estimates over the last 60 days [14] Regulatory Developments Impacting Crypto Adoption - An executive order from Trump could allow Bitcoin to be included in 401(k) retirement plans, which is seen as a significant step towards broader cryptocurrency adoption [5][6] - If implemented, this could integrate Bitcoin into the financial framework of the U.S. and promote long-term investment in digital assets [6]

♪ DANI: IT’S 5:00 A. M. IN NEW YORK CITY.GOOD MORNING, I’M DANI BURGER WITH YOUR "BLOOMBERG BRIEF." THIS IS WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ON FRIDAY. A DAY AFTER HOT INFLATION, TALKS OF A JUMBO CUT, INVESTORS TRIM RATE BETS. PRESIDENT TRUMP AND PUTIN TO DISCUSS THE WAR IN UKRAINE.AND GOVERNMENT TALKS ON INTEL. MORE ON THE BLOOMBERG SCOOP COMING UP. THE THIRD CONSECUTIVE RECORD FOR THIS EQUITY MARKET, THE 18TH OF THE YEAR.WE GOT THERE BASICALLY ON AN UNCHANGED MARKET. THE S&P WAS UP .3% YESTERDAY DESPITE THE HOTTEST ...

Bitcoin, Ethereum Fall as PPI Shock Squashes Hopes for Jumbo Rate Cut► https://t.co/m7HkumVn5p https://t.co/m7HkumVn5p ...

President Trump suggests he'll announce Powell's replacement 'a little earlier' as markets further ramp up rate cut expectations.Get all the news you need to start your morning with the Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Podcast. https://t.co/AWqT81ynhc ...

South Korea’s property market cools bolstering the case for the Bank of Korea to consider resuming its rate-cut cycle later this month https://t.co/KKNb7BJuSA ...

>> THIS IS BALANCE OF POWER, LIVE FROM WASHINGTON, D. C. >> TO OUR TV AND RADIO AUDIENCES WORLDWIDE, WELCOME TO BALANCE OF POWER.TONIGHT THE PRESIDENT DOWNPLAYS EXPECTATIONS ON UPCOMING MEETING WITH VLADIMIR PUTIN. TRUMP: IF THE FIRST ONE GOES OK, WE WILL HAVE A QUICK SECOND ONE, I WOULD LIKE TO DO IT ALMOST IMMEDIATELY, AND A QUICK SECOND MEETING BETWEEN PRESIDENT PUTIN AND PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY AND MYSELF IF THEY WOULD LIKE TO HAVE ME THERE. >> MILITARY ACTIONS IN WASHINGTON, D.C. , THE ECONOMY AND HONING I ...

Market Performance & Trends - Broad-based rally led to record highs for major stock indices, with approximately 85% of S&P 500 stocks in the green [2][5][6] - Market anticipates a full percentage point rate cut by September, though caution is advised due to upcoming data and Fed meetings [3] - President's influence on lowering rate expectations is viewed favorably by 59% of respondents in an MLive Pulse survey, anticipating stock market benefits [4] - Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $22,840 [8] Individual Stock Movements - Paramount Skydance experienced significant gains, closing nearly 37% higher, driven by merger completion and a media rights agreement with Tyco for UFC events [10][11] - Webtoon saw an 81% increase, marking its largest jump since its IPO, fueled by a Disney partnership and earnings report, reaching a market cap of roughly $21 billion [12][13] - U S Antimony's stock rose about 5% following a Bloomberg interview with its CEO [16] Sector Performance - Tech sector was down, with Nvidia closing lower, while Apple and Amazon contributed the most points to the S&P 500 [9] - Financials, industrials, and healthcare sectors performed well, contributing to the Dow Jones' outperformance [9] - Semis and power generation stocks linked to the boom experienced a sell-off [17] Company Earnings & Outlook - Cisco's fiscal fourth-quarter revenue aligned with estimates at $467 billion, with EPS at $099 versus $098 [19] - Cisco's full fiscal year adjusted EPS is projected between $4 and $406, and revenue between $59 and $60 billion [20][21] - Coherent's shares declined 14% due to disappointing guidance [27] - CoreWeave gave a disappointing earnings outlook, reflecting costs of rapid data center expansion [17]

FedWatch pricing in a 99.9% chance at 1 Rate Cut&& a 0.1% chance at 2 Rate Cuts for September...LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLThere is a literal 0% chance right now that there WON'T be a cut in September. https://t.co/cGqCLoCma0 ...

Market Trends & Records - The market is betting on a September Fed rate cut, with the S&P 500, NASDAQ, Nvidia, Japan's topics exchange, and Taiwan's major stock index all at record highs [2][3] - The S&P 500 has reached its 16th record close this year, underperforming the 57 all-time highs seen in 2024 [5] - There is a 982% probability of a Fed rate cut at the next meeting, according to the CME Fed Watch tool [11] Company Performance & Earnings - Bullish rang the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange on its IPO day, raising $11 billion with an initial valuation of approximately $56 billion [1][2] - Coreweave's stock is opening down 11% after missing earnings expectations and is not expected to be profitable until 2026 [6] - Cava's stock is opening down 20% after disappointing earnings, with revenue and same-store sales below expectations, leading to a cut in full-year guidance [8] - Starbucks is in turnaround mode, with the stock still valued as a growth stock and trading at a premium to the broader market [50] Investment Strategy & Risk - The market is not tolerant of companies falling short of earnings forecasts or retracting guidance, leading to significant penalties [14][15] - Diversification is key to profiting from the market, or holding tight through volatility in concentrated names like the MAG7 [15][16] - The market may be too top-heavy and priced for perfection, with the top 20 mega-cap stocks outperforming the S&P 500 since the April lows [30][31] - Geopolitical risks, such as Trump's China tariff extension and the Trump-Putin meeting, are potential near-term risks that the market may be overlooking [61][64] Consumer Behavior & Restaurant Industry - Consumer behavior patterns are shifting in the post-pandemic world, impacting the value proposition for some companies [9] - Restaurants are battling through consumer spending headwinds, as seen in Cava's stock crash [44] - Starbucks is focusing on improving the in-store experience to attract customers, especially with more people working hybrid or remotely [53][54]