3:45 AM ETThe Trump administration might mandate an equal ratio of domestically... INVESTING RESOURCES Take a Trial Today Get instant access to exclusive stock lists, expert market analysis and powerful tools with 2 months of IBD Digital for only $20! BREAKING: Bullish Rebound Pares Market's Weekly Losses Major indexes shook off their blues in Friday's stock market as tame inflation data raised hopes that another rate cut may be in the works in October. Investors leaned in on indications of a resilient cons ...

Core PCE Price Index - The U.S. Core PCE Price Index for August 2025 is reported at 2.9% year-over-year, aligning with market forecasts [1] - The broader PCE index, which includes food and energy, increased by 2.7% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month, indicating that price pressures are easing but not completely eliminated [1] Bitcoin Market Reaction - Bitcoin has experienced a nearly 4% decline, influenced by stronger U.S. jobs data and robust GDP growth, leading to over $1.5 billion in liquidations [2] - Bearish predictions suggest a potential deeper correction for Bitcoin, with forecasts indicating a drop towards $104K, sub-$100K levels, and possibly retesting $93K, following the $124K all-time high in August [2][3] Economic Outlook and Investor Sentiment - Following a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed, there is optimism that Bitcoin could benefit from the historically bullish seasonality in Q4 [3] - The cooling inflation may restore investor confidence and potentially pave the way for new highs, although macro and geopolitical tensions could pose risks [3] Market Impact of PCE Data - Bull Theory expresses optimism that Bitcoin and the crypto market may be poised for a rebound, viewing the PCE data as confirmation of positive trends for risk assets [4] - Recent tariff measures have had minimal impact on supply-side inflation, providing relief for markets that anticipated worse outcomes [4] Consumer Spending and Economic Resilience - Senior economist Jennifer Lee notes that consumer spending remains strong across major categories, reflecting the resilience of the U.S. economy [5] - This resilience supports the argument for a softer policy stance, indicating that growth can sustain even as inflation cools [5] Rate Cut Expectations - Market odds for another rate cut in October have increased from 75.5% to nearly 81%, signaling support for risk-on assets [6] - Analysts at London Crypto Club predict that the equities market will rise into late November, while Bitcoin and crypto consolidate, potentially reaching new record highs afterward [6]

Market Overview - The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, Core PCE, held steady at 2.9% in August, matching estimates but remaining above the Fed's target of 2% [1][2] - Consumer spending and income showed resilience, contributing to stock market gains, with the Dow up approximately 380 points [1][2] - The S&P 500 and NASDAQ also saw increases, with the S&P 500 up 1% and NASDAQ up 1% [1] Inflation and Consumer Sentiment - Inflation remains sticky, with concerns that the Fed may not be able to implement all planned interest rate cuts due to persistent inflation [2][3] - The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell to 55.1% in September, down from 58.2% in August, indicating a decline in consumer confidence [5][6] - High-income consumers continue to drive spending, while lower-income consumers express concerns about the economy and inflation [6] Housing Market - New home sales surged over 20%, reaching the fastest pace since 2022, attributed to easing mortgage rates [3] - Existing home sales remained flat, indicating a stabilization in the housing market despite overall sluggish demand [3] - Builders are focusing on incentives to drive sales amid affordability challenges [3] Technology Sector - Concerns persist regarding the sustainability of AI investments, with major tech companies like Apple and Nvidia trading lower, while others like Alphabet and Amazon saw gains [1][2] - The competitive landscape for data storage technology is evolving, with Pure Storage emphasizing its unique offerings for AI workloads [4] - Analysts remain bullish on Microsoft, raising its price target due to confidence in its growth drivers and relationship with OpenAI [5] Tariffs and Economic Impact - New tariffs announced by President Trump are expected to impact various sectors, particularly pharmaceuticals, but the overall market response has been muted [2][3] - The potential government shutdown poses risks to economic data releases, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [2][3] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to maintain a well-designed financial plan amid uncertainty, focusing on long-term goals rather than reacting to short-term market fluctuations [7] - Emphasis on conservative investment strategies and understanding risks while seeking opportunities in fixed income and tech sectors [7]

RT Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio)🚨 The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator just dropped and it’s bullish for the crypto market.🇺🇸 US PCE inflation came in at:- 2.7% YoY (expected: 2.7%)- Core PCE: 2.9% (expected: 2.9%)- MoM: 0.2% (expected: 0.2%)📌 In line with expectations.This confirms a few important things:1. Inflation is not rising aggressively.The numbers are stable, not accelerating which is a good sign for the Fed and for markets.2. Tariffs haven’t had any major impact.Despite being in place for months n ...

Market Outlook - Market anticipates a rate cut in October, which is bullish for crypto due to increased liquidity and risk-on flows [2] Economic Indicators - Inflation is stable [3] - Tariffs are not causing an inflation shock [3] - Consumer spending is under control [3]

Group 1 - Kratos Defense & Security Solutions has established a factory to produce 24 XQ-58A Valkyrie combat drones, aiming to secure contracts with the U.S. Marine Corps and Airbus [1] - The U.S. has reclassified drones to fighter jet status, prompting Cathie Wood's ARK Invest to adjust their defense stock holdings [2] - The defense and aerospace sector is experiencing a surge, with notable increases in stock prices for companies like Kratos and Rocket Lab [4] Group 2 - Major indexes are reaching new highs, indicating a potential bullish phase in the market rally, with Tesla and Kratos among the stocks showing buy signals [4] - Increased defense spending targets by NATO and heightened military activities in the Middle East are contributing to the rise in defense stocks [4] - The market is witnessing a focus on drone technology, with expectations for significant advancements and investments in hypersonic capabilities [4]

BREAKING: Inflation Data Cements Rate Cut Expectations Tesla (TSLA) has rallied nearly 30% this month ahead of global third-quarter vehicle deliveries next month, with analysts handing the EV giant a slew of price-target hikes in recent weeks. On Friday, a Tesla stock super bull said he sees 40% upside based almost entirely on the company's robotaxi rollout. Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, a long-time Tesla bull, on… Related news PCE Inflation Data In Line, Bolsters Fed Rate Cut Outlook (Live Coverage) ...

Economic Data Impact - A surprisingly strong U.S. jobs report has led to a significant rise in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), reaching a three-week high, while Bitcoin has fallen below $111,000 [1] - Initial jobless claims decreased by 14,000 to 218,000, marking a two-month low, and Q2 GDP growth was revised upward to 3.8% from 3.3% [1] Federal Reserve Rate Cut Odds - Fresh economic data has reduced the likelihood of rapid Federal Reserve rate cuts, with the odds of an October rate cut decreasing from 92% to 85.5% [2] - Fed Governor Miran advocated for faster easing, but Chairman Powell urged caution in response to the economic data [2] Bitcoin Market Dynamics - Bitcoin is showing signs of exhaustion, with ETF inflows slowing sharply around the FOMC meeting, leading to a fragile balance in market flows [2] - The cost basis for short-term holders is now a key support level at $111,000, which must hold to prevent further declines [3] - Bitcoin has slipped below the 0.95 Cost Basis Quantile, indicating potential profit-taking zones, with risks of drifting toward lower support levels around $105,000 to $90,000 [3] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical uncertainty, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict and ongoing conflicts in Gaza, has contributed to market weakness and a shift towards safe-haven assets like gold [4] Analyst Perspectives - Analysts remain confident that the Bitcoin bull market is not over, despite current struggles below $112,000 [5] - The 21-week EMA is climbing, and Bitcoin needs to stay above this level to reclaim bullish territory and attempt new highs [5] - An inverse head-and-shoulders pattern is forming, indicating potential for a higher low in Bitcoin's trading range [6]

Core Insights - The discussion revolves around investment regrets, particularly focusing on stocks that were sold prematurely without solid reasoning, highlighting the importance of having a structured investment strategy [1][5][8]. Group 1: Investment Regrets - Lou Whiteman expresses regret over selling Axos Financial and Loews, which have significantly appreciated in value since he sold them, emphasizing the danger of selling based on whims rather than a solid investment thesis [1][5]. - Jason Hall shares his regret about selling Microsoft just before its substantial growth, attributing the decision to impatience rather than business concerns [5][8]. - Rick Munarriz recounts his experience with Netflix, where he sold 99% of his shares, leading to significant regret as the stock appreciated dramatically [6][7]. Group 2: Current Stock Recommendations - Jason Hall suggests Starbucks as a potential buy, citing improvements in operational management and a low bar for upcoming performance expectations, despite a history of negative comparable sales [10][11]. - Lou Whiteman highlights Montrose Environmental as a stock to watch, noting its role in environmental services and potential benefits from lower borrowing costs in a rate-cut environment [12][13]. - Rick Munarriz recommends Zillow Group, arguing that a decrease in financing rates could revitalize the residential real estate market, benefiting Zillow's business model and driving revenue growth [15][16].

Core Insights - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech is a significant market catalyst following the Fed's recent rate cut, with global markets seeking clarity on future monetary policy [1][2] - The current Fed policy rate is set at 4.00%–4.25% after a 25 basis points cut, leading to divided investor sentiment regarding future rate adjustments [2][3] Market Reactions - Institutional investors are showing caution in the crypto markets, with significant outflows from Bitcoin and Ether ETFs, indicating a potential hedging strategy against a hawkish tone from Powell [4] - Bitcoin's price remains above $113,000, but the market is fragile, with traders closely monitoring key support and resistance levels in response to Powell's remarks [5] Macro Context - The U.S. Dollar Index is stable near 97.40, and 10-year Treasury yields are around 4.15%, reflecting investor caution ahead of Powell's speech, which typically pressures risk assets like Bitcoin [6] - Gold prices are reaching new highs as capital shifts away from crypto, suggesting that traditional safe havens are currently favored in the inflation hedge narrative [7]