there there wasn't widespread support at all for for a 50 basis point cut today. You know, I I think we've done um we've done very large rate hikes and very large rate cuts in the last 5 years and you tend to do those at a time when when you feel that policy is out of place and needs to move quickly to a new place. That's not at all what what I feel certainly now.I feel like our policy has been doing the right thing so far this year. I think we were right to wait and see how tariffs and inflation and and th ...

In support of our goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks today, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower our policy interest rate by a quarter percentage point. We also decided to continue to reduce our securities holdings. While the unemployment rate remains low, it has edged up.Job gains have slowed and downside risks to employment have risen. At the same time, inflation has risen recently and remains somewhat elevated. ...

Monetary Policy Stance - The committee views the rate cut as a risk management strategy against potential labor market weakening [1] - The committee acknowledges the need to restore 2% inflation on a sustained basis [6] - Since April, the risks of higher and more persistent inflation have decreased [6] Labor Market Assessment - The labor market is showing signs of cooling off, influencing policy decisions [4] - Previously, the labor market saw 150,000 jobs created per month, but revisions and new numbers suggest a change [3] - Unemployment remains relatively low, but downside risks are emerging [7] Economic Outlook - GDP growth has slowed [7] - The median participant expects inflation to be higher than previously expected by the end of next year, with the Fed not reaching the 2% target until 2028 [4] - Projections for growth this year and next have slightly increased, while inflation and unemployment forecasts remained relatively stable [2]

Let's bring in now a former Fed officials take. That is Richard Clar, a former Fed chair and global economic adviser at PIMCO. Richard, kind of a dealer's choice.You got the actual Fed decision everybody expected. You got Myron calling for a half percentage point cut. He's kind of way out there.No desense, the neutral rate. What do you think is the most important thing here. Well, I think there was some risk management here along two dimensions.One, the statement made reference to risk in the labor market. ...

分组1 - The current state of the US economy is characterized by confusion regarding the labor market and the impact of tariffs, leading to a wide dispersion in views among Federal Reserve members [2][3][28] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making process reflects a strong emphasis on maintaining independence, as evidenced by the lack of dissent among members regarding rate cuts, which is seen as a positive sign for market stability [4][19][29] - The Phillips curve framework suggests that rising unemployment may keep wage inflation low, allowing the Fed to overlook current inflation rates and potentially cut rates in the future [6][7][34] 分组2 - Small-cap stocks are showing significant movement, with the SML small cap 600 index up 2%, indicating that domestic companies are likely to benefit later in the rate cut cycle [10][11] - The bond market remains relatively stable, with the 10-year yield at 4%, suggesting that mortgage rates may not decrease significantly despite expectations of rate cuts [12][14] - The ongoing capital expenditure (capex) cycle driven by AI infrastructure investment is expected to enhance productivity and profit margins, positively impacting equity markets [22][25][26]

RT Bloomberg Opinion (@opinion)@JonathanJLevin @keds_economist @AllisonSchrager “How are we getting to 2% inflation in a couple of years when [the Fed] already started cutting?” asks @AllisonSchrager.“It seems like they’ve already declared victory.”https://t.co/gpI5tkEvOw ...

Fed expected to cut rates for the first time this year later this afternoon. Here with us now at Post 9 is former Goldman Sachs president, current IBM vice chair Gary Conn. Gary also served as the director of the National Economic Council during President Trump's first term.Welcome back. Thanks for having great to have you, especially on a day like today. Is there scope for the market to be disappointed if if Powell isn't dovish enough to meet all their great expectations of more cuts.Look, there's there's ...

Fed expected to cut rates for the first time this year later this afternoon. Here with us now at Post 9 is former Goldman Sachs president, current IBM vice chair Gary Conn. Gary also served as the director of the National Economic Council during President Trump's first term.Welcome back. Thanks for having great to have you, especially on a day like today. Is there scope for the market to be disappointed if if Powell isn't dovish enough to meet all their great expectations of more cuts.Look, there's there's ...

Monetary Policy & Interest Rates - The market anticipates a 0.25% interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, influenced by signals from various Fed governors [2] - The Fed aims to loosen monetary policy to stimulate a struggling labor market, complicated by persistent inflation partly due to tariff policies [4] - The market is concerned that the Fed's independence is being undermined, potentially leading to a loss of control over inflation and impacting long-term interest rates [5] - The yield curve is steepening, indicating a decreasing difference between short-term and long-term borrowing rates, which could affect mortgage interest rates [7] Labor Market - The labor market shows signs of deterioration, with job openings falling below the number of job seekers [3] - There has been a notable increase in the black unemployment rate, signaling a potential broader weakening of the labor market [4] Tariffs & Inflation - The Trump administration's tariff policies are contributing to elevated inflation levels [4] - Uncertainty surrounding tariffs creates investment challenges, and consumer price increases may lag due to order placement and shipping times [13][14] - There is debate on whether American consumers can absorb tariff costs, considering COVID-era stimulus and elevated savings [16] Consumer Impact - Working-class individuals are facing pressure from a weakening labor market and rising prices for essential goods like groceries and housing [19] - Increased wealth from rising asset prices primarily benefits those with substantial stock market holdings and homeownership, not the majority of Americans [18]

Right now we're joined by uh Goldman Sachs, Goldman Sachs vice chairman Rob Kaplan, who's also a former Dallas Fed president. And uh Rob, what do you think about that. Just Steve's point in particular about the Fed's mortgage portfolio, what you think should be done with it.Yeah. Well, several years ago when the Fed was buying treasuries and mortgage back securities, you we discussed back then the Fed's footprint in the mortgage market was getting very very large and it was becoming a big factor and u I thi ...