Market Overview - The S&P 500 and NASDAQ have reached record-breaking levels, while gold prices have rallied above $4,000 for the second consecutive day, significantly outpacing equity markets [1] - Bitcoin has increased by 54% year-to-date, indicating strong performance in the cryptocurrency market [1] Gold Market - Gold gained 27% in the previous year and is expected to maintain elevated levels due to a rush to safety, record ETF inflows, and a weaker dollar [2] - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates in September is anticipated to support gold prices further [2][3] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve is concerned about a weakening labor market and has discussed potential interest rate cuts, with a majority favoring two to three additional cuts in 2025 [3] - A narrow split among officials indicates a preference for two more cuts before the end of the year, with further easing expected in 2026 and 2027 [3][4] Sector Performance - Despite the overall market rally, four sectors, including energy, faced pressure, with crude prices rising over 1% following a modest production hike by OPEC+ [5][6] - Technology stocks, particularly AMD, have shown strong performance, with AMD being the best performer on the S&P 500 [6][7] Upcoming Earnings Reports - Pepsi is expected to report a modest decrease in profitability despite growing sales, having underperformed its industry peers with an 18% decline year-to-date [8][9] - Delta Airlines is anticipated to report the best earnings in the airline industry, with analysts optimistic about the premium segment's performance [10][11] - Levi Strauss is also set to report earnings, focusing on tariff impacts and consumer trends, with the company maintaining a positive outlook on brand loyalty and revenue guidance despite anticipated margin pressures [12][14]

Fed Divided On Additional Interest Rate Cuts—‘About Half’ Favor Two More This Year, Minutes Showhttps://t.co/ggipxEugg1 https://t.co/vstdOCxsz9 ...

Most members of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate setting committee supported further reductions to its key interest rate this year, minutes from last month’s meeting, released Wednesday, showed.A majority of Fed officials felt that the risk that unemployment would rise had worsened since their previous meeting in July, while the risk of rising inflation “had either diminished or not increased,” the minutes said. As a result, the central bank decided at its Sept. 16-17 meeting to reduce its key rate by a ...

Monetary Policy Stance - The Federal Reserve's minutes from its September 16th to 17th meeting revealed that almost all participants supported a 0.25% (quarter point) cut at the meeting [1] - A few participants believed there was merit in keeping the federal funds rate unchanged [2] - Most participants judged that it would likely be appropriate to ease policy further over the course of the year [5] - Financial conditions suggested monetary policy may not be particularly restrictive, suggesting a cautious path ahead [5] Economic Outlook & Concerns - Hawks noted progress towards the Fed's 2% inflation target had stalled, raising the risks of inflation expectations rising [3] - Officials indicated their outlooks for the labor market were uncertain and they viewed downside risks to employment as having increased [4] - Indicators cited included low hiring and firing rates, concentrated job gains in a small number of sectors, and increases in unemployment for groups traditionally sensitive to a weakening economy [4] - Economists are pointing to inflation figures and suggesting the worst of the tariff passed through into inflation and prices is yet to come [7] - Others are still concerned about the weakening of the labor market and the idea that that suggests a weakening of the economy ahead [7] Balance Sheet Considerations - Market participants are suggesting that reserves are at the borderline for whether or not there's enough available [10] - A 0.01% (one basis point) jump in the effective Fed funds rate recently was seen by some as a sign that this is coming [10] - Participants felt reserves continued to appear abundant, and no changes were suggested [5][11]

Core Insights - Broader equity markets are reaching record highs despite a government shutdown and inflation concerns, with investors expecting the shutdown to be brief and anticipating interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2025 due to weak labor market conditions [1][8] Investment Strategies - Investors are looking to capitalize on the upward movement of stocks by creating portfolios that ensure healthy returns, although the abundance of stocks makes this challenging [2] - Following broker advice is suggested as a strategy, with broker-favored stocks such as Bread Financial (BFH), Delek US Holdings (DK), American Eagle Outfitters (AEO), Advance Auto Parts (AAP), and Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM) recommended for monitoring [3][8] Stock Screening Methodology - A screening process has been developed to identify stocks based on improving broker recommendations and upward revisions in earnings estimates over the past four weeks, incorporating the price/sales ratio as a valuation metric [4][5] - Screening parameters include: - Top 75 companies with net upgrades in broker ratings over the last four weeks - Top 10 stocks with earnings estimate revisions for the upcoming quarter - Bottom 10% of stocks based on price-to-sales ratio [5][6] Featured Stocks - **Bread Financial (BFH)**: Benefits from data-driven marketing strategies and solid receivables growth in Card Services, with a Zacks Rank of 3 and an average earnings beat of 32% [7][8] - **Delek US Holdings (DK)**: Has a competitive edge in the oil and gas sector due to extensive downstream operations, with a Zacks Rank of 3 and an average earnings beat of 16.1% [9] - **American Eagle Outfitters (AEO)**: Focused on cost-reduction and brand progress, with strategic initiatives aimed at long-term growth and a Zacks Rank of 3 [10][11] - **Advance Auto Parts (AAP)**: Completed a store footprint optimization program and plans to open over 100 new stores, with a Zacks Rank of 3 [11] - **Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM)**: Focused on global trends and investing in technological capabilities, with a Zacks Rank of 3 and an average earnings beat of 0.05% [12][13]

Welcome back to Market on Close. I'm Sam Bartis on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange and I'm pleased to say I am joined by Peter Tutman who is the senior floor broker at Trademass. Thank you so much for joining me.Peter, what did you make of the day. I mean, we can still claim that it was a record, but it just didn't end like one. >> You know what.Look, I mean, a little bit of red on the screen. You know, look, we've had maybe four days that have been the slightest bit of a shallow selloff, if you'd ...

Core Viewpoint - Hedge fund billionaire Paul Tudor Jones warns that the financial markets in 2025 may be on the brink of a significant downturn, drawing parallels to the tech boom of 1999, but suggesting that the current environment could be even more volatile [1][2][3] Market Behavior - Jones emphasizes that the current investment climate mirrors the conditions leading up to the 2000 dot-com bust, with investor behavior reflecting a similar pattern of exuberance [2][3] - He notes that the greatest price appreciation typically occurs in the 12 months preceding a market peak, indicating that investors face a timing challenge [5] Economic Context - The Federal Reserve's potential for multiple interest rate cuts is highlighted as a significant factor, with the real interest rate approaching zero, creating incentives for investment [6] - Jones contrasts the current fiscal situation, with a 6% budget deficit, against the 1999 budget surplus, suggesting that the current fiscal and monetary combination is unprecedented [6] Asset Class Concerns - Jones identifies sovereign debt as the "biggest bubble," driven by global deficits and an easing monetary cycle [7] - He expresses concern over the interconnected financing in the AI sector, indicating a level of nervousness about the sustainability of such arrangements [8] Market Outlook - The end of the year is seen as a critical period for market performance, with institutional investors marking their positions [9][10] - Jones warns that while the current market conditions may lead to explosive gains, the potential for a sudden downturn remains, echoing historical patterns [12]

Core Insights - Ongoing debates among elected officials regarding the budget on Capitol Hill may lead to further interest rate cuts [1] Group 1 - The current market dynamics suggest that fixed income investors might consider repositioning their portfolios in response to potential interest rate changes [1]

Let's continue with the impact of the shutdown on the economy. Joining us here at Post9 this morning is Robert Kaplan, Goldman Sachs vice chairman, management committee member, and former Dallas Fed president, of course. Rob, it's good to have you in.Thanks for joining us. I mean, is the shutdown any competition for this wave of tech investment that the market's entranced with. Uh, not for the time being.I mean, on the margin, it it will mean the economy is a little slower than it might have been. Uh but I ...

Economic Outlooks - The World Bank has raised China's 2025 GDP forecast to 4.8%, indicating a positive outlook before an expected slowdown in the following year [3][9] - Canada's economy is showing signs of deceleration, with Q2 GDP weaker than anticipated and a fragile housing sector that complicates potential interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada [4][9] - The French Farm Ministry has revised down its 2025 wine production forecast to 36.0 million hectoliters, reflecting a 1% decrease from last year's output [5][9] Corporate Actions and Analyst Ratings - Zurich Insurance (ZURN) has decided not to tender its stake in Sabadell (SAB) amidst a tender offer, marking a significant move in the financial services sector [6][9] - Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR) has been downgraded by Jefferies from "Hold" to "Underperform," with the target price significantly reduced from $110 to $70 [6][9] Political and Geopolitical Developments - Japan's new LDP leader, Sanae Takaichi, is engaged in coalition talks with Komeito, having reached agreements on two out of three discussed points, and is preparing for a Japan-U.S. leaders meeting on October 28th [7][9] - The EU is moving to restrict Russian diplomats' travel due to increased espionage activities, while Germany's Cabinet is divided over an EU letter advocating for a ban on combustion engine cars, indicating internal friction on environmental policy [8][9]