Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Coal and Coke Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: November 17, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Research Institute, Black Research Team [2] - Analyst: Zhang Xuan, License No. Z0022723 [2] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [2] Group 2: Price Forecast and Volatility - **Price Range Forecast (Monthly)** - Coking Coal: 1100 - 1350 [3] - Coke: 1550 - 1850 [3] - **Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling)** - Coking Coal: 36.02% [3] - Coke: 28.42% [3] - **Current Volatility Historical Percentile** - Coking Coal: 69.61% [3] - Coke: 60.19% [3] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Hedging** - Scenario: Steel mills' profit margins are shrinking, making it difficult for coke producers to raise prices. Coke producers are worried about future price drops and want to lock in sales prices in advance. - Strategy: Short the Coke 2601 contract. - Hedging Tool: J2601 (Sell) - Recommended Hedging Ratio: 25% at (1780, 1830); 50% at (1830 - 1880) [3] - **Procurement Management** - Scenario: Macroeconomic sentiment is fluctuating. Coking coal mine production rates are seasonally low. Factors such as over - production checks and anti - cut - throat competition in the fourth quarter are affecting coking coal supply. Coking plants are worried about future price increases and want to lock in procurement prices in advance. - Strategy: Long the Coking Coal 2605 contract. - Hedging Tool: JM2605 (Buy) - Recommended Hedging Ratio: 25% at (1150, 1180); 50% at (1120, 1150) [3] Group 4: Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report | Commodity | Unit | 2025 - 11 - 17 | 2025 - 11 - 14 | 2025 - 11 - 10 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | Tons | 108272 | 111927 | 128592 | - 3655 | - 20320 | | Hot - Rolled Coil | Tons | 150567 | 144083 | 127028 | 6484 | 23539 | | Iron Ore | Lots | 900 | 900 | 800 | 0 | 100 | | Coking Coal | Lots | 100 | 100 | 100 | 0 | 0 | | Coke | Lots | 2070 | 2070 | 2070 | 0 | 0 | | Ferrosilicon | Contracts | 8450 | 8450 | 5699 | 0 | 2751 | | Ferromanganese | Contracts | 19863 | 18663 | 14358 | 1200 | 5505 | [4] Group 5: Core Logic and Strategy Recommendations - **Core Logic** - Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized stable energy production and supply and peak - period energy security, but this is a routine policy and not the core reason for the downward trend in the futures market. - The key factors are the large increase in coking coal and thermal coal spot prices, low acceptance from downstream users, strong market wait - and - see sentiment, and miners' fear of high prices leading to faster sales. - Downstream steel mills' losses are increasing, more steel mills plan to conduct maintenance, iron - water production is expected to decline, and coal - coke demand is seasonally weakening. It is difficult for the fourth round of coke price increases to be implemented. - In the short term, futures and spot prices may face adjustment pressure. In the long term, over - production checks and safety production policies will limit coking coal supply elasticity. With the upcoming winter storage demand, the downward space for coking coal spot prices is limited. [4] - **Strategy Recommendations** - Coking Coal reference range: (1100, 1350); Coke reference range: (1600, 1850). If prices fall to the lower end of the range and show signs of stabilization and rebound, consider going long. [4] Group 6:利多 and利空解读 - **利多解读** - In the fourth quarter, under the constraints of "anti - cut - throat competition" and "over - production checks" policies, domestic mine production rates face a theoretical upper limit, restricting coking coal supply elasticity. - As the starting year of the "14th Five - Year Plan" in 2026, the long - term market outlook has improved significantly, and this year's winter storage scale is expected to be better than last year, providing phased support for coal - coke prices. [6] - **利空解读** - Recently, steel mills' profits have been damaged, the number of maintenance steel mills has increased, iron - water production has decreased month - on - month, end - users generally believe that current coking coal spot prices are too high, and their willingness to purchase is low. Coal - coke demand has reached a phased peak, and short - term prices may face adjustment. [7] Group 7: Coal - Coke Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices** - Multiple indicators such as coking coal and coke warehouse receipt costs, basis, spreads between different contracts, and related ratios (e.g., coking profit, ore - coke ratio, etc.) are provided with specific values and their daily and weekly changes. [8] - **Spot Prices** - Spot prices of various coking coal and coke products, including domestic and imported ones, are given, along with their daily and weekly changes. Import and export profits for different types of coal and coke are also presented. [9][10]

按照党中央统一部署，11月13日至22日，中央安全生产考核巡查组第十六组对陕西省开展安全生 产考核巡查。11月14日，考核巡查组第十六组与陕西省在西安举行专题座谈会。考核巡查组第十六组组 长、国家矿山安监局局长黄锦生出席并讲话，省长赵刚主持并讲话。省委常委、常务副省长王晓汇报有 关工作情况。 黄锦生指出，习近平总书记高度重视安全生产工作，作出一系列重要指示批示，为我们做好工作指 明了方向、提供了根本遵循。今年是首次中央安全生产考核巡查，通过座谈问询、明查暗访、调阅重点 资料、个别谈话、专家指导服务等方式实施检查，将严查党政领导干部责任制落实情况、有关部门履职 情况、安全生产治本攻坚三年行动推进情况、事故多发地区和行业领域，并核查群众反映和职工报告的 问题隐患线索。希望陕西省以此次考核巡查为镜鉴，进一步压实各方安全生产责任，着力防控重大安全 风险，整治重大事故隐患，坚决防范遏制重特大事故，共同为经济社会发展营造良好安全环境。 赵刚表示，此次考核巡查是对我省安全生产工作的一次全面检视和有力推动。各地各有关部门要切 实提高思想认识，全力支持、配合、保障考核巡查组工作，实事求是提供情况、反映问题，高质量完成 考核巡查 ...

此次活动设置了隐患查找实地竞技和安全知识综合考核两大环节，旨在检验参赛选手的安全技能。 经过一天的激烈角逐，活动综合两项比赛的成绩，评比出团体奖、个人奖和组织奖等若干奖项。 此次活动创新引入了移动方舱安全体验环节。移动方舱为参与者提供了高度仿真的沉浸式培训体 验。参与人员与参赛人员通过VR设备，"置身"于电光石火的险情现场。 该集团创新模式，以沉浸式模式开展垦区安全生产"大练兵"，进一步压实企业安全生产主体责任， 全面提升垦区安全管理水平与员工安全素养，推动垦区安全生产形势持续向好发展。 海南日报讯(海南日报全媒体记者 邓钰 通讯员 陈晓亮)日前，海南省农垦投资控股集团有限公司在 海口举行安全生产和消防安全技能竞赛暨移动方舱安全体验活动，该集团34家二级企业的精干队伍同台 竞技。 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the petrochemical industry as "Positive" for investment, indicating an expectation of outperforming market performance [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that addressing climate change and safety production are key focuses for state-owned petrochemical enterprises [1]. - Most companies in the industry have performed well in ESG scores, with a 100% coverage of ESG reporting, particularly excelling in environmental and social aspects, while governance needs improvement [10][16]. - Seven companies scored above 80 points, including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum, and China Petrochemical, while two companies scored between 40-80 points [10]. Summary by Sections 1. ESG Reporting Coverage - The ESG report coverage is complete, with high scores in environmental and social aspects, but governance remains an area for improvement [10][16]. 2. Environmental Indicators - Companies show a strong commitment to environmental management, with five companies scoring over 15 points and eight scoring above 10 points. However, disclosure on oil spill risk management and circular economy indicators is lacking [16][20]. 3. Climate Change Response - The industry generally scores high in climate change response, with 100% disclosure rates for climate management and indicators. However, there is a need for better disclosure on internal supervision and financial impact assessments [26][30]. 4. Social Responsibility - Most companies score moderately high in social responsibility, focusing on rural revitalization, social contributions, innovation, safety production, and employee welfare. However, the disclosure rate for public awareness initiatives is low [43][46]. 5. Governance Structure - The governance structure is largely complete, with high scores in governance indicators. However, the disclosure of ESG information reporting and supervision mechanisms needs improvement [57][66].

考核巡查组表示，将认真贯彻落实习近平总书记关于安全生产重要论述和重要指示批示精神，认真 落实党中央、国务院决策部署，聚焦党政领导干部安全生产责任落实、治本攻坚三年行动推进、重特大 事故防范等进行"五个严查"，综合运用座谈问询、明查暗访、调阅重点资料、约谈会商等方式开展工 作。 11月10日至19日，中央安全生产考核巡查组第十组对我省开展考核巡查。11月12日，考核巡查组与 辽宁省座谈会在沈阳举行，考核巡查组第十组组长、农业农村部副部长麦尔丹·木盖提出席并讲话。省 领导王利波主持会议并作表态发言，省领导李强、吴春耕出席会议。考核巡查组第十组临时党支部书记 余德旋，农业农村部渔业渔政管理局局长肖放等出席会议。 我省表示，将全力配合考核巡查组工作，认真梳理考核巡查反馈提出的问题，周密部署、压实责 任，从严从细从实抓好整改；建立健全长效机制，确保整改一类隐患、规范一类领域；坚持问题导向， 聚焦渔业船舶、消防等重点领域，切实强化督导检查和风险隐患排查治理，确保安全生产责任和措施真 正落到实处。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central government emphasizes the importance of safety production assessments and inspections, highlighting the need for high-quality completion of these tasks in Shanghai [1][2] Group 1: Safety Production Assessment - The Central Safety Production Assessment Team is conducting inspections in Shanghai from November 11 to 21, focusing on leadership accountability and safety production initiatives [1] - The assessment aims to objectively reflect the effectiveness of Shanghai's safety production efforts, particularly in high-risk areas and industries [1] Group 2: Local Government Response - Shanghai's local government is committed to implementing the directives from the central government and has initiated a three-year action plan to address safety production issues [2] - The city reported a generally stable safety production situation in the first ten months of the year, indicating effective risk management [2] - The local government plans to use the assessment as an opportunity to identify gaps and enhance safety governance capabilities [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights three coal mine accidents in Henan, revealing significant safety management issues within the mining industry, including inadequate risk control and failure to fulfill safety responsibilities [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Incident Overview - Since late July, Henan coal mines have experienced three production safety accidents within a two-month period, indicating a troubling trend in operational safety [1] Safety Management Issues - The accidents expose critical problems such as poor implementation of safety responsibilities by mining companies, inadequate risk management, and insufficient hazard identification and rectification [1] - There are notable issues with on-site management, including violations of safety protocols and improper operational practices [1] Response Measures - In light of these incidents, there is a call for thorough reflection and proactive measures to enhance safety production efforts in the remaining two months of the year, aiming to prevent further accidents [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company Chitianhua (600227.SH) faces significant operational challenges, highlighted by repeated safety violations and financial losses, raising concerns about its future performance and stability [1][5][6]. Regulatory Issues - Chitianhua's wholly-owned subsidiary, Guizhou Anjia Mining Co., received a fine of 700,000 yuan and a three-day production suspension due to safety violations related to unclear mining areas and unassessed water accumulation [1][2]. - This marks the second penalty for Anjia Mining in less than three months, indicating ongoing safety compliance issues [2][4]. - The company previously faced a fatal accident in July, resulting in a fine and suspension of safety licenses for responsible personnel [4]. Financial Performance - For the third quarter of 2025, Chitianhua reported total revenue of 4.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 31.1%, and a net loss of 1.04 billion yuan, a staggering decrease of 4960.36% [5][6]. - Cumulatively, the company has incurred losses exceeding 700 million yuan over the past four years, with a net profit margin of -9.72% [6]. - The company's gross margin stands at 8.9%, down 21.33 percentage points year-on-year, indicating severe profitability challenges [6]. Business Structure - Chitianhua's main revenue sources include urea products (55.06% of revenue), methanol (28.10%), and compound fertilizers (7.61%), while coal business contributes only 0.64% [8]. - Despite the low revenue contribution from coal, Anjia Mining holds significant assets, accounting for 22.95% of the company's total assets [8]. - The company operates primarily in Guizhou Province, with 69.62% of its revenue generated from this region [8].

Core Insights - The meeting emphasized the importance of accurately grasping policies and planning ahead for investment projects, focusing on risk assessment and ensuring alignment with local investment policy directions [1][2] - The company aims to enhance internal management by strengthening talent development and optimizing process systems to improve project management efficiency [1] - There is a strong emphasis on accountability and collaboration among units to achieve annual investment goals while ensuring safety in production [2] Group 1 - The company will closely monitor local investment policy trends to ensure project advancement aligns with policy directions [1] - A project risk assessment mechanism will be established to evaluate potential risks related to construction cycles, funding security, and policy changes [1] - The company plans to proactively identify and reserve quality projects that align with its development strategy for the upcoming year [1] Group 2 - Internal management will be deepened by clarifying responsibilities in project initiation, construction, and acceptance to avoid overlaps and management blind spots [1] - Professional capability building in investment areas will be prioritized through training and exchanges to enhance business skills [1] - A responsibility tracking mechanism will be implemented to ensure accountability for achieving investment targets [2]

这也是国家层面的安全生产"年度大考"首次升格为"中央安全生产考核巡查"，考核巡查规格更高、力度 更大、震慑力更强，充分体现了中央对安全生产工作一以贯之的高度重视和坚持人民至上、生命至上的 执政理念。 提升安全生产治理效能，必须敢于动真碰硬，创新方式方法。此次考核巡查明确强调，要将"多通报、 多发督促函、多暗访、多拍摄隐患场景"贯穿全过程。"四多"直指当前安全生产监管中的薄弱环节，体 现出精准发力、务求实效的工作思路。 "多通报"意味着增加信息透明度，及时披露发现的问题、存在的风险，既能对责任主体形成强大舆论压 力，促使其立即整改，也能为其他地区和单位敲响警钟，起到"一地受警示、全国受教育"的效果。 "多发督促函"则体现了精准施策、持续跟踪的管理思路，针对具体问题向相关责任单位发出书面警示和 整改要求，确保问题不解决不放过、隐患不消除不销号，形成有效的监督闭环。 当前，各地已进入"迎检"状态。需要指出的是，真正的"迎检"不应是临时抱佛脚，更不是弄虚作假企图 蒙混过关，而应体现在日常工作中对安全生产责任的严格落实，体现在对风险隐患的常态排查与治理。 考核巡查的目的，不是简单地"找茬"或问责，而在于通过外部强有力的 ...