This uptick of inflation that we've been seeing coupled with the jobs payroll jobs numbers deteriorating have put the central bank in a bit of a sticky spot where you're getting deterioration of both sides of the mandate at the same time. If the inflation looks like it's going to be transitory, and I say that word with with with some fear, >> then I think the employment side of the mandate would be dominant. But that you see this uptick in inflation and particularly the uptick in services inflation which is ...

Fixed Income Strategy - The firm favors credit over duration in fixed income, particularly municipal bonds due to strong fundamentals like strong state rainy day funds and high savings rates [2][3] - The firm also likes senior loans and emerging market debt, now that some of the liberation day issues are behind us [3] - The firm prefers higher quality credit, such as senior loans, which have historically performed well during rate cut cycles [4] Economic Outlook - Employment markets are showing signs of economic slowdown [6] - The firm is focused on the government shutdown, the pace of Fed rate cuts, and third-quarter earnings as key factors influencing investment decisions [6] - The potential tail risks of the government shutdown include furlowed jobs becoming eliminated jobs, which could impact the job market [6] - The lack of economic data due to the government shutdown may hinder the Fed's decision-making process regarding rate cuts [7] Equity Market Perspective - Third-quarter earnings are expected to be strong, with consensus estimates of 88% year-over-year growth, potentially led by tech stocks [8] - US markets are trading at a premium versus history, justified by tech and AI [9] - The structural trend of artificial intelligence is alive and well and here to stay and that will drive US stocks higher [16] - AI companies are larger and more profitable this time compared to the late 90s, with corporations integrating AI into their workforce to increase productivity and revenues [15][16] - The S&P year to date is up in the mid-teens, and usually markets end higher by the time the year ends [17]

More rate cuts are coming.Risk assets will explode.$10,000 per $ETH is easy! https://t.co/nksB73jmtl ...

Turkish inflation accelerated for the first time in more than a year, casting doubt on whether the central bank can push ahead with its recent string of rate cuts https://t.co/GV1kI4Doj5 ...

RT Mayne (@Tradermayne)Me - stressing about the cycle. How much longer they can pump the stock market before something breaks? More rate cuts comingMy wife - https://t.co/DqO4U1lyCl ...

Me - stressing about the cycle. How much longer they can pump the stock market before something breaks? More rate cuts comingMy wife - https://t.co/DqO4U1lyCl ...

Market Sentiment and Valuation Concerns - Verdant's CIO expresses concern about complacency in the market, suggesting potential downside risk [3] - Tech names in the S&P 500 are trading at a 90% premium versus their historical average, indicating unsustainable valuations [4] - The market is fully pricing in gradual rate cuts by the Fed, which may not materialize [5] - The current market valuation leaves more room for downside than upside [6] Monetary Policy and Inflation - The market's expectation of consistent rate cuts by the Fed is a key concern [5] - The possibility of sticky inflation and the Fed being "pinned" could derail the rally [5] - The market may be overconfident that the Fed will be satisfied with a 3% or higher inflation rate [6] Investment Strategy - A 4% CD is favored over investing in the current market at record highs [1] - Profits may be vulnerable if market momentum slows down [3]

Market Trends & Economic Outlook - US stock market is on track for five straight days of gains, with the Dow up approximately 025% [1] - Bond market indicates a lack of concern about risk, with the 30-year Treasury yield well below 5% [2] - The labor market is showing signs of slowing, with muted hiring [1] - The market is pricing in another 25 basis point rate cut in December [1] Company Performance & Sector Analysis - Semiconductors are outperforming, with Intel up almost 4% [1] - Tesla's Q3 deliveries set a record at just over 497000 cars, but shares are down about 4% [2] - DraftKings is considered undervalued, trading at 19 times earnings with 75% earnings growth [5] - AI optimism is boosting stocks, with OpenAI valued at $500 billion in a secondary sale [3] Investment Opportunities & Potential Risks - Foreign direct investment (FDI) of $17 trillion and AI tech spending are acting as stimulus programs [2] - Circular financing in the AI sector may end poorly in the long term [3] - Cannabis stocks are rallying due to potential rescheduling, with Advisor Shares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) specializing in US multi-state operators [19][25]

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the policy repo rate unchanged at 5.50% during the recent Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, indicating potential for future rate cuts to support growth [3][6] - The MPC's language has shifted, suggesting that the "sobering of inflation" provides more leeway for monetary policy adjustments, contrasting with previous statements about a benign inflation outlook [5][7] - Economists predict a possible reduction in the repo rate to 5% by February, contingent on tariff rates and domestic consumption trends, with a conditional December cut being emphasized [6][7] Group 2 - The RBI has revised down its growth projections for Q3 and Q4 FY26, citing risks to growth momentum in the second half of FY26 [5][7] - If tariff risks diminish and global growth among major trading partners remains stable, there could be an upside bias to the FY26 GDP forecast, currently estimated at 6.6% [6][7] - The upcoming trade deal between India and the US, along with the impact of GST cuts on demand, are critical factors to monitor for future monetary policy decisions [6][7]

RATE CUTS IN OCTOBER! 🚀 https://t.co/aCTSic6VDn ...