Bitcoin whales inactive for more than a decade have started to wake up as the U.S. Federal Reserve’s September 17 rate cut decision draws close. A Satoshi-era whale woke up on Wednesday and transferred 1,000 BTC worth to four new wallets, according to on-chain analytics platform Arkham. In 2013, this whale received 1,000 BTC in four chunks, with the price of Bitcoin hovering around $843. At Bitcoin’s current price of $117,000, the same stack is now worth a staggering $117 million. More dormant wallets h ...

Rate cut day. 🚨Do you think Bitcoin goes up or down from here? 🤔 ...

Market Overview - US equity futures are flat ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision, with S&P and Nasdaq futures down 0.1% [1][3] - Nvidia shares fell 1% in premarket trading after reports that China ordered companies to terminate orders for specific AI chips [1][3] - The dollar is near its lowest level in three years, while gold remains near record highs [1][3] Corporate News - Cytokinetics (CYTK) shares rose 1% after announcing a $550 million convertible notes offering and a meeting with US regulators regarding its drug application [4] - Manchester United (MANU) shares fell 9% due to flat revenues and increasing losses [4] - New Fortress Energy (NFE) shares surged 24% after finalizing a $4 billion liquefied natural gas supply deal with Puerto Rico [4] - Vtex (VTEX) shares increased 5% following an upgrade from Jefferies, citing overdone declines and intact long-term growth prospects [4] - Workday (WDAY) shares rose 9% as analysts expressed positive outlooks and Elliott Investment Management noted substantial progress [4] Economic Indicators - Housing starts and building permits data are expected ahead of jobless claims data [1] - The Bank of Canada is anticipated to cut its benchmark overnight rate to 2.5% following weak jobs data [9] International Trade and Relations - China instructed tech firms, including Alibaba and ByteDance, to stop orders for Nvidia's AI chips, impacting Nvidia's stock [1][21] - Trump discussed easing tensions with Indian PM Modi amid tariff disputes and oil purchases from Russia [7] - China released a Wells Fargo banker previously barred from leaving the country, ahead of a potential meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping [7]

Group 1 - Chinese internet regulator advises companies against purchasing Nvidia due to its market dominance, potentially impacting Nvidia's stock performance [1] - Nvidia shares are currently trading around $173.50, reflecting a slight decline of approximately 0.75% [3] - A significant technical level for Nvidia is identified at $155, with a breakdown below this level indicating a more serious decline [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, with a 96% probability according to CME traders, while a 50 basis point cut is considered unlikely [4][6] - The Fed's recent focus has shifted from inflation to job growth, indicating a broader economic strategy [5] - Market reactions will depend heavily on the commentary from Fed Chair Powell following the rate decision, with potential disappointment if no further cuts are indicated [6][7] Group 3 - Cyclical sectors such as industrials, materials, and financials have underperformed despite expectations of a rate cut, suggesting a complex market dynamic [8] - The financial sector may benefit from a steepening yield curve, which is anticipated with the upcoming rate cut [9] - There is a belief that mid and small-cap stocks will perform well in the wake of Fed rate cuts, with opportunities identified outside of the major tech stocks [11][12] Group 4 - The addition of companies focused on manufacturing to investment portfolios is seen as a bet on increased capital expenditures driven by potential policy changes [10] - The industrial sector is showing signs of improvement, with expectations for a broader market rally beyond just the major tech companies [12][13]

Stocks and currencies in developing economies extended their rally as investors turned their focus to the pace of US monetary easing beyond the rate cut that policymakers are widely expected to deliver on Wednesday https://t.co/h4cBn3t2Mb ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a rate cut during its upcoming meeting, driven by recent tame inflation data and signs of weakness in the job market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Expectations - As of Monday, the market has priced in a 96.2% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the September meeting [2]. - JPMorgan estimates a 95% likelihood of a Fed rate cut, with an 87.5% chance of it being a 25-basis-point reduction [2]. Group 2: Potential Market Reactions - A "Dovish Cut" is anticipated, which could lead to a positive market reaction, with the S&P 500 potentially gaining about 1% immediately after the cut, reaching approximately 6,650 [6]. - However, there are concerns that this could lead to a "sell-the-news" event, where stocks may decline as investors reassess the macro environment and other factors [7]. Group 3: Future Projections - If headwinds materialize, stocks could fall by as much as 5% in the following weeks, but this could create buying opportunities for investors [8].

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Core Insights - The crypto market is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut, which is expected to be 25 basis points, as it will significantly impact cash flow into the industry [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Impact - A rate cut by the Federal Reserve could unlock trillions of dollars in money market liquidity and mortgages, which is crucial for long-term market health [2]. - Currently, about 80% of U.S. mortgages are locked in at rates below 5%, limiting homeowners' interest in refinancing, but a rate cut could stimulate credit circulation [3]. - If the Fed resumes its rate-cutting strategy, it may lead to increased liquidity flowing into alternative yield-generating investments, including decentralized finance (DeFi) products and real-world asset (RWA) tokens [4]. Group 2: Stablecoins and Yield Generation - A potential rate cut could enhance cash flow into yield-bearing stablecoins, which are becoming more integrated into the global financial system [5][6]. - Yield-bearing stablecoins differ from traditional USD-pegged stablecoins as they generate yields through backing by real-world assets or lending protocols [6]. - The market capitalization of yield-bearing stablecoins was reported at $13.7 billion, indicating a growing interest in these financial instruments [7].

Market Overview - Major stock indices are experiencing a pullback from record highs, with the Dow down approximately 80 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are roughly flat [1][2][3] - The Russell 2000 small-cap index is down about 0.25%, indicating more negativity compared to larger indices [4] - The 10-year Treasury yield is down to 4.03%, approaching the psychological level of 4.0% [4][5] Federal Reserve Insights - The Senate confirmed Steven Myron as a Federal Reserve governor, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut during the upcoming FOMC meeting [9][10] - Myron's dovish stance raises questions about his support for the rate cut, as he may prefer a larger reduction [10][11] - The Fed's dual mandate is under tension, with a softening job market and broadening inflation, complicating the decision-making process [17][23] Consumer Behavior and Retail Sales - Retail sales data shows strength, with August figures beating expectations, indicating consumer resilience despite economic uncertainties [15][20] - Best Buy's CEO noted steady consumer demand, particularly in electronics, with low single-digit positive comps expected for the quarter [108][111] - The housing market's performance is linked to consumer spending on big-ticket items, with a sub-6% mortgage rate seen as a potential catalyst for recovery [116][117] Sector Performance - The energy sector leads with a gain of 1.75%, while utilities and real estate are underperforming [5][6] - Tesla has been a standout performer, up 2%, contributing to the consumer discretionary sector's strength [6][7] - Chinese tech stocks are showing positive momentum, with Alibaba and JD.com up 2% and 3% respectively, indicating a divergence from U.S. market trends [7][84] Company-Specific Developments - Hershey Foods received a double upgrade from Goldman Sachs, reflecting strong pricing power and a positive outlook ahead of the holiday season [68][70] - Ralph Lauren's long-term financial outlook disappointed some investors, but the stock remains up 35% year-to-date, with a focus on inclusive luxury [63][66] - CLA, a new fintech stock, received mixed reviews from analysts, with a buy rating from Compass Point Research and holds from others, indicating cautious optimism [58][60]

Market Overview - Wall Street experienced a slight pullback as investors took profits after record gains, with the S&P 500 down 0.13% to 6,606.76, the Nasdaq Composite down 0.07% to 22,333.96, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 125.55 points or 0.27% to 45,757.90 [1][2] Federal Reserve Meeting - The Federal Reserve is holding a two-day policy meeting, with expectations for a quarter-point rate cut, and traders are looking for guidance on potential further cuts by year-end [2][4] - Chair Jerome Powell's post-meeting press conference is anticipated for insights on future rate paths [2] Corporate Movements - Nvidia and Microsoft saw declines of 1.6% and 1.2% respectively, while Alphabet and Palantir also retreated amid the Fed meeting [2] - Eli Lilly's stock rose over 2% following the announcement of a $5 billion manufacturing facility in Virginia [6] - Nio's stock climbed more than 2% after receiving an upgrade from UBS [6] - Webtoon Entertainment surged 31% due to a digital comics partnership with Disney [6] - Hims & Hers fell 7% after an FDA warning [6] Global Trade and Economic Indicators - U.S. Treasury Secretary expressed optimism regarding trade talks with China, indicating a potential deal ahead of upcoming tariffs [5] - Gold prices reached a new record above $3,699 an ounce as investors prepared for a rate cut [6] - Cryptocurrency prices remained stable ahead of the Fed's decision [6] Analyst Predictions - Analysts expect a quarter-point cut with a dovish tone, with predictions of up to 100 basis points of easing over time [7] - Monetary policy adjustments are anticipated to support higher equity prices despite signs of labor market cooling [7] Banking Sector Insights - Wells Fargo's Mike Mayo reaffirmed Citi as a top pick and raised price targets across the banking sector [8] - Barclays increased its target on Taiwan Semiconductor, citing strong AI-driven demand [8]