All right, let's talk markets. Ahead of a big week, investors paying close attention to fighting between Israel and Iran as well as the Fed. The central bank's going to be issuing its latest interest rate decision on Wednesday.And right now, we want to bring in Lori Calvacina. She is head of US equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. And Lori, we thought we had a little bit of idea of how the markets were headed.We've been looking at inflation coming down. We thought maybe that was going to help the Fed get ...

In 2014-15, we had what uh economists call a silent recession in the US. We didn't see growth contract for the whole country. But in this area and other manufacturing areas, there was a big downturn.Um what was it like here. Uh it was bad. People have adapted.I think the uh frenzy that went on after uh were coming into 14 were uh especially the oil companies, the big independents that were drilling uh just to drill as much as they could, just to get as much oil as they could. Uh they learned a lesson in tha ...

K. Thank you. That's NBC's Kier Simmons.You bet. Joining us now, Goldman Sachs of Vice Chairman Rob Kaplan, who is former Dallas Sed president. And you know what we're going to talk about.Obviously, we're CPI, PPI, things like that. Uh Rob, but uh at this point uh we have um uh obviously been sort of upended uh by what happened in the last 24 hours or so. Does it change anything for for as far as the Fed's calculus goes.Um I think the market reaction there's a market reaction obviously in oil. You see gold ...

Market Volatility & Investment Strategy - The market has shown resilience with a V-shaped recovery, and investors should embrace volatility as it favors long-term value buyers [1] - Despite major market averages being in the black for the year, many individual stocks, especially in the Russell 2000, are still down significantly, presenting value opportunities [4] - Stock picking is expected to outperform buying indexes, offering better sleep-at-night valuations and generous dividend yields [11] Undervalued Sectors & Stocks - The energy sector, particularly Sevitas Resources, is attractive due to being hit hard, offering a big dividend yield and low PE ratio while remaining profitable [5][6] - Pharmaceutical companies like Merc are viewed as high quality, trading at a PE around 11 with a 4% dividend yield, lower than its historical valuation [6] - Whirlpool, the appliance maker, offers a yield over 7% with a PE in the 9-10 range, anticipating support from lower interest rates later in the year [8] - Target, the discount retailer, has a low valuation relative to its history and a dividend yield pushing 5% [8][9] - UPS, the package shipping company, aligns with the theme of low valuations and generous dividend yields [9] Economic Outlook & Fed Policy - Good news rate cuts are anticipated throughout the year, although immediate cuts are unlikely due to tariff uncertainties and high inflation expectations [12][13] - Historically, stocks have performed well regardless of Fed tightening or easing, rising or falling interest rates, or high or low inflation [14] - Value stocks have historically lost only a couple percent on average during recessions, with spectacular returns of 30-40% coming out of recessions [15][16] Portfolio Valuation - The portfolio's forward earnings trade at 14 times, compared to the S&P 500's 23 times forward earnings [10] - The portfolio's overall dividend yield is 250 basis points (25%) versus 130 basis points (13%) for the S&P 500 [10]

Major companies like Walmart, Mattel, and Ford have all suggested they're going to need to raise consumer prices as the tariffs hit them. Some companies have already had to raise prices, like Stanley Black and Dicker. So, here's what you said.Nobody's making this stuff up. Here's what you said. Walmart will be absorbing some of the tariffs.Some may get passed on to consumers. Do American consumers pay the tariffs. Again, uh, Senator, you are cherry-picking because Walmart makes decisions based on their cust ...

Economic Outlook - JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warns that the U.S. economy may face deteriorating conditions soon, potentially undermining a soft landing [1] - Dimon emphasizes that economic surveys indicating reduced business and consumer confidence do not accurately predict inflection points in the economy [2] - He anticipates slight decreases in employment and slight increases in inflation, attributing some economic weakness to reduced immigration affecting the labor market [3] Private Credit Market Concerns - Dimon expresses concerns about the private credit markets if a recession occurs, noting that banks face different risks compared to investors [6] - He advises against purchasing credit at current prices and spreads, indicating that the market is less attractive [6] Recession Possibility - Dimon maintains that a recession remains a possibility, stating it should not be ruled out at this point [7] - He previously indicated that a recession is a "likely outcome" for the economy, especially in light of recent tariff negotiations [7][8] - Following the Trump administration's tariff adjustments, JPMorgan economists lowered the probability of a recession this year from 60% to below 50% [11]

Market Performance & Influencers - Since October 2022, CPI reports have dominated market gains with a 16 percentage point increase [3] - Post-Trump election, jobs data turned negative, down 5 percentage points [3] - CPI's impact has flattened since November, introducing volatility [4] - Fed days continue to drag stocks lower [4] Bond Market & Yields - Fed decisions are the biggest movers for bonds, pushing the 10-year yield down 98 basis points [6] - Since November, jobs data has added 26 basis points to the 10-year yield, signaling concerns about sticky inflation [7] - A recent jobs report drove the 10-year yield up 10 basis points [7] Economic Concerns - Investors fear slowing growth and potential recession instead of cheering cooling inflation [4] - Significantly lower yields could signal doubts about the reflation trade and economic trouble [6]

With 30-year fixed home loan rates remaining over 6% for three years now, 5% home loan rates are a faint memory. Most housing experts aren't expecting mortgage rates to move much lower through the end of this year, or even in 2026. However, a major economic setback could change that. When will mortgage rates go down to 5%? What would trigger lower mortgage rates? Realtor.com chief economist Danielle Hale said it's a matter of time. "The most likely catalyst is time. As time goes by, as you get closer t ...

Group 1 - Carvana, a used-car dealer known for its unique car vending machines, appears to be thriving despite potential macroeconomic recession indicators [1] - The company has leveraged various macro crosswinds over the past few years to enhance its market position [1] Group 2 - The article highlights the author's extensive experience in technology and investment, indicating a well-informed perspective on industry trends [1]

Core Insights - Best Buy's stock has experienced significant volatility, with a year-to-date decline of 23%, underperforming the S&P 500 [1] - The company reported a 2% decrease in net sales and a 5% decline in earnings per diluted share in Q1 2026, attributed to weaknesses in specific product categories [1][8] - Historical data indicates that during downturns, Best Buy's stock has lost substantial value, including a 45% drop in 2020 and a 55% decline during the inflation crisis of 2022 [2][6] Financial Performance - Best Buy's current stock price is approximately $66, with a forward P/E ratio of 11x, slightly below its four-year average of 12x [7] - Analysts have set a 12-month price target of $81, suggesting a potential upside of over 20% from the current price [7] - The company has revised its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance downward to a range of $41.1 billion to $41.9 billion, reflecting cautious consumer behavior amid persistent inflation [8] Market Conditions - Best Buy's reliance on imported electronics makes it vulnerable to tariff fluctuations, with 30-35% of merchandise sourced from China and 40% from other countries subject to tariffs [3][4] - The company has implemented selective price increases to mitigate the impact of increased tariff-related costs [3] - Consensus forecasts indicate flat revenue growth for fiscal 2026, with a modest 2% increase projected for fiscal 2027, highlighting ongoing macroeconomic challenges [8]