Economic Concerns - Consumer confidence is declining, and CEO confidence remains neutral at 49 out of 100 [1][2] - The economy is described as "stuck in neutral," with concerns about potential stagflation (rising inflation and declining GDP) [1][5] - Private jobs reports are also drifting downward, mirroring the expected but unreleased government jobs report [3] Employment Market - While mass layoffs are not currently observed, hiring is also stagnant [2] - The labor market is experiencing a "push-pull" dynamic with 10,000 baby boomers retiring daily (300,000 a month), coupled with the return of approximately 2 million immigrants [4] - Potential government layoffs add further complexity to the employment situation, resulting in overall stasis [4] Trade and Investment - Uncertainty surrounding trade deals and tariffs is causing businesses to hold back on investment, spending, and hiring [2][8] - Executives are unhappy with the current situation, particularly regarding supply chain and tariff uncertainties, which impact cost predictability [7] Market Valuation - The market is considered overvalued, described as being in "nosebleed territory," but lacks viable alternatives [7] - The market's current pricing suggests an expectation of positive resolutions to the tariff situation [6][8]

Time for money, power, politics. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessett warned today that US growth could take a hit. He says because of the government shutdown.Remember, the US economy has been on an upward climb for the last couple of quarters despite growing anxiety about inflation, tariffs, and what's gotten to be a more fragile labor market. Unfortunately, we might not know for some time whether Bessin is right or wrong because the shutdown has triggered an economic data blackout. With me now to discuss, Nat ...

The European Union plans to double the duty on steel imports to 50%, matching the tariffs being levied in the US in an effort to preserve the 27-nation bloc’s heavy industry: Here's your Evening Briefing https://t.co/jYGeWvKgT1 ...

Government Shutdown & Fiscal Policy - The White House is considering across-the-board layoffs, potentially using the government shutdown as an excuse [1] - The current economic fragility amplifies the impact of government shutdowns [2] - The Republican Party's commitment to shrinking the federal government is questionable, given deferred resignations [3] - The administration's threats of mass firings may be limited by civil service reforms enacted 130 years ago [4][5] Trade & Tariffs - The President has allegedly made several undocumented trade deals with major countries, relying on press releases rather than formal agreements [7] - The Court of International Trade and the D C District Court have challenged the President's authority to impose tariffs [8] - The Supreme Court will hear a case on November 5th that could potentially dismantle the current tariff regime [8] - The bond market's reaction to tariff news has shifted from inflation concerns to deficit reduction needs [10] Deficit & Debt - In 2025, the US is projected to run a $17 trillion deficit, approximately 6% of GDP [11] - Tariffs are claimed to generate $300 billion in revenue in 2026, potentially offsetting tax cuts, but not closing the deficit significantly [12] - The current level of debt is sustainable, but the ongoing deficits are not [13]

Trade & Tariffs - Trump's tariffs are adding to economic pain [1]

Market Impact of Trade War - US soybean farmers are suffering due to President Trump's tariffs, especially with China ceasing soybean purchases since May [1] - China has shifted soybean purchases to Brazil and Argentina [2] - An aid package to Argentina backfired as Argentina removed export tariffs on grains and sold soybeans to China, reducing US leverage [3] - A soybean farmer reported a shift from $12 billion to zero in sales [5] - Argentina received $20 billion of taxpayer money, becoming a stronger competitor [6] - China bought a large quantity of soybeans from Argentina after a tax holiday, approximately 30-40 container ships, which equals about 65,000 metric tons per ship or 22 million bushels [6] - Argentinian soybeans are being sold at $230% over the November board, while US farmers are getting 50 cents under [7] Farmer Sentiment and Economic Concerns - Farmers are nervous and scared about the current market conditions [11] - Some older farmers are considering quitting, unwilling to lose 30 years of work [12] - Bankers are concerned about farmers' ability to repay loans due to declining equipment and land values [13] - Farmers do not want to be bailed out by the CCC, they want the markets to work [16] - Tariffs have destroyed markets for family farmers, potentially leading to consolidation and food security issues [17] Government and Policy Issues - Government shutdown is hindering farmers' ability to get loans and insurance for alternative crops like canola [9] - The timing of potential discussions with China about soybeans in November is questioned, as Brazil will already be in full swing with their harvest [18]

Economic Impact - The Trump administration's policies, including tariffs and attacks on the Federal Reserve, have negatively impacted the dollar [1] - A government shutdown would further harm the dollar, but its impact would be limited [1]

Michael Aron is chief investment strategist at State Street Investment Management. Mike, always appreciate having you on. You know, stocks may be due for whatever, but it doesn't mean they're going to do that, does it.It doesn't, Brian. The foundation for this bull market remains solid. So, trades coming into clearer focus.It's not perfect, but we've avoided the worst outcome. Now, we're throwing a little gasoline on the fire with both fiscal policy and monetary policy. Oh, and by the way, earnings are grow ...

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said the most recent round of tariffs may be causing businesses in his district to again pause decision-making in order to see where the levies settle https://t.co/mmdf10x2G0 ...

The cost of coffee is on the rise, thanks to tariffs. Congress has introduced a bill to scrap the tax—a move that could be popular as more Americans reach for a cup. https://t.co/zFiS5WPLIv ...