Bond investors are re-examining their holdings of longer-dated Treasuries, with some reducing positions and others even going short relative to their benchmark, as the Federal Reserve prepares to cut interest rates by another quarter percentage point on Wednesday. ...

Core Viewpoint - Opendoor Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:OPEN) has shown strong performance, rising by 13.37% to $7.97, driven by positive investor sentiment regarding potential interest rate cuts [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Impact - The US central bank is expected to meet for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with economists predicting a 25-basis point rate cut due to lower-than-expected September consumer inflation [2]. - A potential interest rate cut is anticipated to benefit Opendoor and the real estate sector, as it may enhance lending opportunities and encourage homebuyer borrowing [3]. - The Federal Reserve is projected to announce an additional rate cut by the end of the year, which would support borrowing volume and align with Opendoor's expansion plans across the US [4].

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street is entering a critical earnings season, with significant events including the Federal Reserve's meeting and earnings reports from major technology companies, amidst concerns over macroeconomic data delays due to a government shutdown [1] Earnings Reports - Nucor is expected to praise tariffs but not deliver exceptional results, as tariffs help prevent steel dumping from other countries [2] - UnitedHealth's earnings may reveal the impact of a government investigation into its billing practices, while SoFi's recent performance raises questions about its sustainability [3] - Celestica is anticipated to continue its upward trajectory due to strong demand for its tech products, and UPS's earnings present a balanced risk-reward scenario [3] - VF Corp is expected to report strong results despite previous underperformance, and Royal Caribbean is noted for its post-Covid stock performance [3] - Visa is described as a reliable stock, while Seagate may report outstanding results [3] - CVS is predicted to exceed earnings expectations, while Caterpillar may see profit-taking despite a potentially strong quarter [4] - Boeing is expected to provide modestly positive results amid trade tensions, and Starbucks may report slightly better than expected earnings [4] - Major tech companies Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta are all predicted to post strong results, with Microsoft potentially leading the group [4] - Chipotle's upcoming earnings are critical for its growth status, while ServiceNow is expected to have a standout quarter [5] - Carvana is anticipated to deliver impressive results, and Agnico Eagle is recommended over Newmont in the gold sector [5] - The Federal Reserve's meeting is expected to result in a quarter-point rate cut due to signs of economic stalling [6] - Mastercard is expected to report solid results, while Eli Lilly needs to announce new developments regarding its GLP-1 drug [7] - Amazon's growth in its web services division is crucial for its stock performance, and Apple is expected to present a strong long-term narrative [8] - Chevron and Exxon are described as lagging stocks tied to crude oil prices, making it difficult for them to gain momentum [8]

Core Insights - Ford Motor Company was the best-performing stock in the S&P 500, with shares soaring over 12% after reporting third-quarter earnings that exceeded analysts' expectations [4][7] - Deckers Outdoor, a shoes and apparel maker, saw its shares plunge more than 15% due to a weaker-than-expected outlook, citing potential pullback in consumer spending driven by tariffs and higher prices [6][7] Market Performance - Major U.S. equity indexes reached record highs, with the Nasdaq rising 1.2%, the S&P 500 adding 0.8%, and the Dow climbing 1% to finish above 47,000 for the first time, all posting roughly 2% gains for the week [3] - Other automakers, including General Motors, also experienced share price increases following Ford's strong performance [4] Sector Movements - Shares of International Business Machines (IBM) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) jumped nearly 8% after IBM's successful implementation of a quantum computing algorithm on an AMD chip, contributing to a 1.9% increase in the SOX index of semiconductor stocks [5] - Newmont, the world's largest gold miner, experienced a 6.2% decline in shares despite reporting third-quarter results that surpassed analysts' estimates, amid concerns regarding its production outlook [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter-point in October due to concerns about the deteriorating job market outweighing inflation fears [2][9]. Group 1: Interest Rate Cut Expectations - The Federal Open Market Committee is likely to reduce the fed funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4%, marking its second cut in consecutive meetings [3]. - Financial markets are pricing in a near certainty of a quarter-point rate cut in October and another cut in December [4][9]. - The Fed's decision-making is complicated by its dual mandate to maintain low inflation and high employment [4]. Group 2: Economic Implications - A rate cut will bring the fed funds rate closer to a "neutral" level, which neither stimulates nor hinders economic activity [5]. - The Fed's focus has shifted from high inflation to the health of the job market, as job creation has significantly slowed [6][9]. - By cutting the fed funds rate, the central bank aims to lower borrowing costs to encourage borrowing and boost hiring [6][9]. Group 3: External Factors - Tariffs are contributing to both price increases and job market slowdowns, creating uncertainty for business leaders and discouraging expansion [7]. - Recent data showed that the Consumer Price Index rose less than expected in September, solidifying expectations for the rate cut [8]. - The ongoing government shutdown is delaying important economic reports, which may affect the Fed's future decisions [10].

Despite struggling for support till mid afternoon, European stocks edged higher on Friday after cooler-than-expected U.S. consumer price inflation raised prospects of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week. Investors also digested a fresh batch of corporate earnings announcements, and regional economic data, in addition to following the developments on the geopolitical front.Data from the Labor Department showed the U.S. consumer price index rose by 0.3% in September after climbing by 0.4% i ...

Market Overview - US stock futures are rising significantly following the September consumer price index (CPI) report, with the S&P 500 set to open at an all-time high as prices increased by 3% year-over-year, slightly below the expected 3.1% [1][5][10] - The market is now pricing in a 99% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in October and a 96% chance for December, indicating strong investor sentiment [10][12] Federal Reserve Insights - The CPI report is seen as a bullish catalyst for the market, with expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates due to the cooler-than-expected inflation data [8][12] - Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, also showed a decrease from 3.1% to 3%, indicating progress, although it remains above the Fed's 2% target [12][14] - The lack of additional economic data due to the government shutdown creates uncertainty for future Fed decisions, particularly regarding the job market [15][18] Corporate Earnings - Intel reported better-than-expected third-quarter earnings, with revenues of $13.7 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $0.23, leading to a nearly 6% increase in pre-market shares [24][26] - The company is experiencing improved sales in its PC and AI data center businesses, although it still faces challenges in its foundry operations [24][26][28] Trade Relations - President Trump has halted trade talks with Canada, citing an anti-tariff advertisement that featured former President Ronald Reagan, which adds to the uncertainty in trade relations [2][19] - The ongoing trade discussions and their implications for tariffs remain a significant concern for the market, as they could impact business operations and investor sentiment [20][21] Company-Specific Developments - Target announced it will eliminate 8% of its corporate roles due to underperformance and market share losses, which analysts view as a necessary move [30][31] - Deckers, the maker of Hoka and Uggs, reported disappointing sales guidance, forecasting full-year sales of approximately $5.35 billion, reflecting cautious consumer behavior [31][32] - Procter & Gamble exceeded sales estimates in its latest quarter, particularly in beauty and grooming categories, although its baby and family care segment showed flat volume [32][33]

US stocks gained Friday morning as investors digested a crucial inflation report that could shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose 0.5%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) gained 0.7%, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) jumped 1%. All eyes on Friday were on September’s inflation data, delayed for more than a week by the ongoing government shutdown. The CPI report came in cooler than expected, with headline CPI rising 3% on an annual basis, the highe ...

Core Insights - US inflation increased to 3% in September, slightly below the expected 3.1%, indicating potential for Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][2][5] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% month-over-month, marking the fastest annual rate since the beginning of the year [2][4] - Core inflation, excluding food and energy, also rose to 3%, down from 3.1% the previous month, contrary to expectations of remaining flat [4][5] Economic Context - The CPI report was delayed due to the federal government shutdown, which is now the second-longest in history [5] - There are concerns regarding the accuracy of the inflation report due to the ongoing government shutdown [7] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates at its upcoming policy meeting, following a quarter-point cut last month [7][9] Market Reactions - Wall Street showed a positive response, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 66 points, or 0.1%, in premarket trading [6] - Analysts suggest that if unemployment data weakens significantly, a 50 basis point cut could be anticipated in December [6] Federal Reserve Dynamics - There is internal dissent among Federal Reserve officials regarding the pace of rate cuts, with some advocating for a half-point cut while others prefer a quarter-point cut [8] - Economists are monitoring the impact of tariffs on prices as part of the broader inflation discussion [8]

Inflation & Interest Rate - Headline inflation estimate is 31%, highest since February [1] - The market has largely priced in an interest rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting [2] - The key focus is whether tariffs are being passed on to higher goods prices, and what happens with services inflation [2][3] - There's a divide among Fed officials regarding concerns about the labor market versus the stickiness of inflation [5][6] - The Fed's guidance on future rates is expected to be limited due to a lack of comprehensive data [9] - A December rate cut is anticipated, especially if the government reopens and data becomes available [14][15] Economic Outlook - Workforce reductions are occurring across different parts of the economy [4] - AI investments are significantly powering the market, with the Atlanta Fed GDP tracker indicating almost 4% growth for the quarter [10] - The economy may be bifurcated, with growth driven by a few sectors and higher-income consumers, making it prone to shocks [11][12][13] - The labor market is expected to weaken, potentially driving more rate cuts into Q1 of the following year [15]