Sales Performance - CAVA Group's same-restaurant sales fell short of estimates [1] Consumer Behavior - Consumers reduced spending [1]

Market Trends & Investment Landscape - Stocks rallied after CPI data release, with major indexes closing higher [1] - Retail investment volumes increased by 23% in the first half of the year compared to 2024 [4] - Brick-and-mortar stores are performing well, accounting for approximately 80% of total retail sales in America [15] - Small business optimism index rose over 1.5 percentage points in July, driven by improved business conditions and expansion plans [40] Consumer Behavior & Spending - US consumers continue to spend, but are shifting towards value retailers like Walmart, TJX, Marshalls, and Dollar General to maximize their dollar [4][5][7] - Consumers are prioritizing essential spending for back-to-school and holiday shopping, rather than discretionary purchases [9] - The top 20% of household income earners in America account for approximately 50% of all consumer spending [24] - Amazon Prime's four-day sales reached $24 billion, exceeding Black Friday sales [18] Economic Factors & Challenges - Labor market softness is causing consumers to feel a pinch and seek better value for their money [6][7] - Retailers are absorbing tariff costs to avoid scaring off consumers with price increases, potentially impacting their bottom line in the short term [19][20] - Concerns exist about the potential impact of tariffs on small businesses and the need for deregulation [43] - There's a growing adoption of AI among small businesses, with adoption rates increasing from 7% to almost 26% [49]

Inflation & Tariffs - Core CPI annualized basis came in a little hotter than expected, at the highest since February [2] - Sequential core inflation and underlying inflation data are showing an uptick after two years of moving closer to the Fed target [3] - Tariff pass-through is having a moderate impact and is likely to grow in the months ahead [3] - Import-sensitive categories like furniture, appliances, and car parts are seeing a shift towards higher inflation [4] Economic Growth & Labor Market - Recent economic data shows some labor market weakening and slowing in economic activity and growth [4] - There are medium-term questions about the effect of tariffs on both inflation and economic growth/employment [4] Consumer Spending & Impact on Working Class - Tariffs disproportionately affect low and moderate-income households [8] - Wage growth is slowing down at the bottom of the income distribution [9] - Consumer spending has been almost flat in the aggregate over the last six months, likely weaker at the bottom of the distribution [9] Healthcare & Student Loans - Premiums for those getting healthcare through Affordable Care Act exchanges will increase, in some cases by 10-20% starting in 2026 [11] - The turning off of the student loan pause is already showing its way in some of the credit score data [12] - There are challenges in the bottom half of the distribution that policymakers will need to be attuned to [13] Data Integrity - It's critical that members of the US Senate interrogate the nominee and press him on whether he can commit to providing credible nonpartisan data completely free from political interference [5] - Business leaders and market participants should make their voices heard about the importance of US economic data being respected [6]

Liz Everett Chrisberg is here and >> the good thing you're bringing us new data I'm told instead of like last month's. No, >> that's fant that is fantastic. Just to make it clear, this is new data.Bank of America Institute reporting consumer spending rose again in July. The consumer is sort of okay. Up 1.8%.Is that good. Year-over-year. >> I'd say it's more than sort of okay. Um, >> it's really sort of okay. >> Well, it's sort of okay.So, so consumer spending year-over-year up 1.8%. If we were to do seasona ...

Morning Joe. The CNBC NRF retail monitor jumped to its best monthly game since we be gain before since we began assembling the data in 2022. That's a likely sign of some combination of a resilient consumer, big midsummer promotions from retailers and possibly tariffed inflation.The NRF monitor, it's fueled by real credit card spending data from D from Affinity Solutions. It jumped 1 and a.5% in July from a negative 0.3% in June. The measure is X autos and gas.Total retail sales year-over-year up a strong 5. ...

Well, later uh this week, the government is going to release retail uh sales data first. So, we have the CNBC NRF retail monitor for you uh ready to go this morning. Senior economics reporter Steve Leeman joins us now with the numbers.Hey, Steve. Morning, Joe. The CNBC NRF retail monitor jumped to its best monthly game since we be game before since we began assembling the data in 2022.That's a likely sign of some combination of a resilient consumer, big midsummer promotions from retailers, and possibly tari ...

Retail Sector Pricing Strategies - Retailers are quietly increasing prices due to rising costs, but are wary of backlash [2][3] - Retail is a low-margin business, making it difficult for retailers to absorb higher costs [4] - Consumers are showing some selectivity in their purchases, with discretionary and higher-priced items being more at risk [7] Inflation and Tariffs - The White House argues that higher prices from tariffs are a one-time event and not an inflationary pressure [8] - Loop Capital Markets believes that tariffs could lead to an inflationary spiral, requiring retailers to raise prices repeatedly [9] - Inflation ticked up last month, and job numbers were worse, impacting retailers [10] Investment Opportunities - Warby Parker and National Vision are favored due to glasses being a non-discretionary medical necessity, allowing for price increases [11][12] - Savers Value Village, a thrift store operator with an average unit retail of less than $5, could benefit from consumers trading down [12][13] Long-Term Outlook - The sustainability of tariffs and their potential to cause significant economic harm remains a key question [14] - If tariffs cause significant economic harm, many of them will likely be rolled back [15]

Consumer Spending Behavior - Customers with access to loans spend at least 20% more compared to those without access [1]

Tariff Impact on Consumers - Consumers are projected to experience an annual price increase of approximately $2,400 due to tariff rates rising from around 25% to as high as 41% for specific countries and imports [2][3] - The American middle class and moderate-income consumers are strained and lack the capacity to absorb an additional $1,000 to $2,000 in costs [10][11] - Companies are resorting to shrinkflation (reducing product quantity while maintaining price) and sneakflation (gradually increasing prices) to offset tariff costs [11][12] Uncertainty and Economic Distortion - The varying tariff rates and potential for further tariffs, including a possible 100% tariff on chips, create significant uncertainty [5] - Stockpiling of goods by companies to avoid tariff increases has distorted GDP data and is expected to continue doing so for the coming months [6] - The economy's reliance on the spending of the wealthiest Americans will determine whether a recession occurs [19][20] Investment and Capital Flows - The Trump administration is using capital flows as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations, demanding increased investment from the EU and Japan [13][14] - There is uncertainty regarding the terms of investment deals, with the EU and Japan clarifying that their commitments are loans, not permanent financial bailouts [14] - Companies are hesitant to make significant investments due to uncertainty, except for sectors like data centers for big tech [31] Economic Disparity - The bottom 80% of Americans have depleted their savings from the pandemic and stimulus payments [17] - A "reverse Robin Hood effect" is occurring, with tax cuts disproportionately benefiting the wealthy while cuts to programs like Medicaid and food stamps, coupled with higher prices, impact those at the bottom [22] Consumer Sentiment and Spending - Polls indicate that a majority of people disapprove of Trump's handling of the economy and inflation [27] - Uncertainty is causing consumers to consider saving more and reducing spending [28]

All three major averages finishing in the green today. The NASDAQ up 1%. Our next guest is warning of seasonal weakness ahead for the stock market.But could strong earnings reverse the usual August malaise. Well, let's bring in RBC Capital Markets head of US equity strategy Lori Calvacina as well as region's wealth management CIO Alan Mcnite. It's great to have you both here.Alan, you're sitting here on set with me. Welcome. Let's start this conversation.What do you think of markets here. What would you be ...