Core Insights - Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.02 per share, reflecting a decline of 4.7% year-over-year, while revenues are forecasted to increase by 3.8% to $430.36 million [1] Earnings Estimates - There has been no revision in the consensus EPS estimate over the last 30 days, indicating stability in analysts' forecasts [1][2] - The consensus estimate for the 'Efficiency Ratio' is 55.9%, slightly improved from 56.0% in the same quarter last year [4] - Analysts predict a 'Net Interest Margin' of 3.6%, unchanged from the previous year [4] Key Financial Metrics - 'Average total interest earning assets' are estimated at $30.64 billion, up from $30.02 billion year-over-year [5] - The estimated 'Book value per share' is $26.85, compared to $24.48 a year ago [5] - The 'Tier I risk-based capital ratio' is expected to be 17.0%, an increase from 16.2% in the previous year [6] - The 'Total risk-based capital ratio' is projected at 17.8%, compared to 17.0% last year [6] Loan and Income Projections - 'Non-accrual loans' are expected to be $21.76 million, up from $19.30 million in the same quarter last year [7] - The forecast for 'Total Non-Interest Income' is $157.57 million, compared to $152.24 million a year ago [8] - 'Fully-taxable equivalent net interest income' is projected to reach $275.75 million, up from $264.58 million last year [8] - 'Trust fees' are expected to be $55.69 million, compared to $52.29 million in the same quarter last year [8] - 'Bank card transaction fees' are forecasted at $47.42 million, slightly down from $47.48 million last year [9] Stock Performance - Commerce shares have increased by 6.5% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's 4.1% increase [9]

Core Viewpoint - South Plains Financial (SPFI) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.77 per share, a 16.7% increase year-over-year, with revenues projected at $51.7 million, reflecting a 6.4% growth compared to the previous year [1]. Earnings Projections - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 2.4% lower in the last 30 days, indicating a collective reevaluation by analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock price movements [3]. Key Financial Metrics - The consensus estimate for the 'Efficiency ratio' is 64.7%, down from 66.7% a year ago [5]. - 'Nonperforming Loans' are expected to reach $7.70 million, a significant decrease from $23.45 million reported in the same quarter last year [5]. - 'Net Interest Margin (FTE)' is forecasted at 3.8%, up from 3.6% in the same quarter of the previous year [5]. - 'Average Balance - Total interest-earning assets' is estimated at $4.15 billion, compared to $4.00 billion reported last year [6]. - 'Net Interest Income' is projected at $39.59 million, an increase from $35.89 million reported in the same quarter last year [6][7]. - 'Total Noninterest Income' is expected to be $12.11 million, slightly down from $12.71 million a year ago [7]. Stock Performance - Over the past month, shares of South Plains Financial have returned +2.7%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has changed by +4.1% [7]. - Currently, SPFI holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), suggesting potential underperformance relative to the overall market in the near future [7].

Core Viewpoint - Analysts project that M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) will report quarterly earnings of $4.03 per share, a 6.3% increase year over year, with revenues expected to reach $2.39 billion, up 3.6% from the same quarter last year [1]. Earnings Projections - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 0.2% in the past 30 days, indicating a reassessment by covering analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock price movements [3]. Key Financial Metrics - Analysts forecast the 'Efficiency Ratio' to be 56.3%, compared to 55.3% a year ago [4]. - The 'Net Interest Margin' is expected to reach 3.7%, up from 3.6% in the same quarter last year [5]. - The 'Average Balance - Total Earning Assets' is projected at $191.73 billion, down from $193.68 billion year over year [5]. - The 'Tier 1 Leverage' is estimated at 10.1%, slightly up from 10.0% a year ago [5]. - The 'Tier 1 Capital Ratio' is expected to be 12.9%, down from 13.2% year over year [6]. - The 'Total Capital Ratio' is projected at 14.6%, compared to 14.9% a year ago [6]. - 'Total Other Income' is estimated at $638.93 million, up from $584.00 million year over year [6]. Revenue Estimates - The consensus for 'Net Interest Income - Taxable-Equivalent' stands at $1.76 billion, compared to $1.73 billion in the same quarter last year [7]. - 'Service Charges on Deposit Accounts' are estimated at $135.70 million, up from $127.00 million year over year [7]. - 'Trust Income' is projected to reach $181.34 million, compared to $170.00 million in the same quarter last year [8]. - 'Mortgage Banking Revenues' are expected to be $126.99 million, up from $106.00 million year over year [8]. - 'Net Interest Income' is anticipated to be $1.74 billion, compared to $1.72 billion a year ago [9]. Stock Performance - Over the past month, M&T Bank shares have returned +10.9%, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +4.1% change [9].

Core Viewpoint - Progressive (PGR) is expected to report significant growth in earnings and revenues for the upcoming quarter, with analysts predicting earnings of $4.30 per share, a 62.3% increase year-over-year, and revenues of $21.52 billion, reflecting a 17.9% increase [1]. Earnings Projections - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 1.1% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a collective reevaluation by analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock price movements [3]. Revenue and Key Metrics - Analysts forecast 'Service revenues' at $128.06 million, a year-over-year increase of 20.5% [5]. - 'Net premiums earned' are expected to be $20.19 billion, reflecting a 17.3% increase from the prior year [5]. - 'Investment income' is projected to reach $860.70 million, indicating a year-over-year change of 25.7% [5]. Expense and Combined Ratios - 'Net premiums earned - Commercial Lines' are estimated at $2.78 billion, a 4.3% year-over-year change [6]. - The 'Companywide Total - Expense ratio' is projected at 19.7%, up from 19.0% in the same quarter last year [6]. - The 'Companywide Total - Combined ratio' is expected to be 88.7%, compared to 91.9% a year ago [6]. Loss Ratios - The 'Companywide Total - Loss/LAE ratio' is forecasted to be 68.9%, down from 72.9% in the previous year [7]. - The 'Property Business - Combined ratio' is expected to reach 107.3%, significantly improved from 166.3% in the same quarter last year [7]. Business Segment Insights - The 'Commercial Lines Business - Combined ratio' is estimated at 89.9%, slightly higher than the year-ago figure of 88.6% [8]. - The 'Property Business - Loss/LAE ratio' is projected to be 78.3%, down from 137.4% a year ago [8]. - The 'Property Business - Expense ratio' is expected to be 29.0%, compared to 28.9% in the previous year [8]. Stock Performance - Over the past month, Progressive shares have declined by 7.1%, contrasting with the S&P 500 composite's increase of 4.1% [9].

Core Viewpoint - Analysts expect First Horizon National (FHN) to report quarterly earnings of $0.41 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 13.9%, with revenues projected at $826.62 million, up 1.4% from the previous year [1] Earnings Projections - The consensus EPS estimate has been adjusted downward by 0.6% over the past 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [1][2] - Revisions to earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor behavior and stock performance [2] Key Metrics Forecast - Analysts predict an 'Efficiency Ratio' of 60.5%, down from 61.4% in the same quarter last year [4] - 'Net Interest Margin (FTE)' is expected to remain stable at 3.4%, consistent with the previous year's figure [4] - 'Average Balance - Total interest earning assets' is projected to reach $75.43 billion, slightly up from $75.24 billion last year [5] - 'Total nonperforming assets' are expected to be $629.23 million, an increase from $582.00 million in the same quarter last year [5] - 'Total nonperforming loans and leases' are forecasted at $627.23 million, up from $574.00 million last year [6] - 'Total Non-Interest Income' is estimated at $189.18 million, compared to $186.00 million in the same quarter last year [6] - 'Net Interest Income' is projected to be $637.47 million, slightly higher than the $629.00 million reported last year [7] - 'Service charges and fees' are expected to be $53.02 million, down from $58.00 million last year [8] - 'Other noninterest income' is forecasted at $18.45 million, up from $17.00 million last year [8] - 'Mortgage banking' is predicted at $9.62 million, down from $10.00 million last year [9] - 'Fixed income' is estimated at $49.28 million, an increase from $40.00 million last year [9] Stock Performance - Shares of First Horizon have returned +11.6% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +4.1% change [9]

Group 1 - Spot gold prices reached $3,340 per ounce, with silver showing even more significant gains [1] - Domestic gold jewelry brands have increased prices, and related A-share stocks have also seen notable rises, with the gold concept sector up 1.19% and the precious metals sector up 1.35% [1] - COMEX gold futures fluctuated between $3,100 and $3,400 per ounce for over two months after hitting $3,500 in April [3] Group 2 - On July 10, gold prices strengthened due to tariff policy disturbances and the Federal Reserve's consideration of a rate cut, with New York gold futures closing at $3,333 per ounce [5] - As of July 11, international gold prices continued to rise, with spot gold at $3,334.82 per ounce and New York gold futures at $3,346.65 per ounce [5] - Recent economic data from the UK and France showed mixed results, with the UK experiencing a slight economic decline and France's CPI showing higher-than-expected growth [7] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the recent rebound in gold prices may continue, with the potential for prices to break the $3,500 per ounce mark again this year, forecasting a range of $3,600 to $3,710 as the highest levels [9] - Market sentiment has improved significantly, which typically leads to a decrease in total gold holdings, potentially limiting upward price movement [9] - The re-emergence of tariff policies and economic growth expectations may test market risk appetite, which could support further increases in gold prices [9]

Market Outlook - S&P 500 could reach 6,500, influenced by potential tariff impacts on GDP and earnings [2][4] - Tariff impacts could lead to a 1% GDP hit resulting in approximately a 4% earnings reduction [2] - Market's positive reaction to Delta's improved forecast indicates continued economic growth and consumer spending [5][6] Earnings Season Expectations - Earnings season is pivotal for assessing consumer and business spending, providing real-time data [8] - Financial sector and banking sector are expected to benefit, despite challenging year-over-year comparisons [10] - Regional banks are favored over larger banks due to price-to-book ratios and potential deregulation benefits [10] Investment Strategy - Robin Hood strategies have shifted towards GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price), including tech, aerospace and defense, and midcaps [13] - Midcaps are considered undervalued, with long-term average price-to-earnings ratios at 19 times, currently at 16 times [13] - Potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could drive the S&P 500 to 6,500, but concerns remain regarding the labor market [11][15]

Key Takeaways Copper prices recently hit new all-time highs above $5.50 per pound. Ero Copper achieved commercial production at the Tucuma Operation as of July 1, 2025. Earnings are expected to jump 165% this year, with one estimate revised higher in the last week. Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) is a copper producer. With copper prices at new all-time highs, this Zacks #1 (Strong Buy) is expected to see earnings soar by 165% this year.Ero Copper is a high-growth copper and gold producer headquartered in Vancouver ...

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