土耳其外交部：以色列必须立即停止其可能导致更大冲突的"侵略行动"。 ...

Core Points - Iran suffered a significant blow from an Israeli attack on June 13, exposing its defense capabilities and leading to the death of several high-ranking officials, including IRGC leaders and nuclear scientists [1] - The attack has prompted Iran to reassess its security measures for sensitive nuclear facilities and consider various retaliation options, including threats against the U.S. and regional allies [1][2] - The ongoing nuclear negotiations in Oman are fragile, with military threats undermining diplomatic efforts [3] Group 1: Retaliation Strategies - Iran's multi-layered retaliation strategy aims to implement strategic strikes, impose substantial costs, and effectively deter future attacks [4] - Potential retaliation measures include disrupting global oil supply routes, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles nearly 20% of global oil transport [5] - Iran may utilize its naval capabilities to attack commercial shipping or encourage proxy groups to do so, thereby creating a shipping crisis [5] Group 2: Proxy Warfare - Iran has a network of proxy forces across the Middle East, including the Houthis, Iraqi militias, and Hezbollah, capable of launching rocket attacks and covert operations [6][7] - Despite some weakening due to recent conflicts, these proxies remain a significant threat and could be mobilized for immediate retaliation against Israel or its allies [7] Group 3: Military Capabilities - Iran possesses thousands of ballistic missiles and an expanding drone fleet, which are central to its retaliation strategy [8] - The country has previously conducted hundreds of missile and drone attacks against Israel, with ongoing improvements in missile range and precision [8][9] Group 4: Cyber Warfare - Iran's cyber warfare units have targeted U.S. and Israeli infrastructure, causing economic and symbolic damage while maintaining plausible deniability [10] - Recent claims of acquiring sensitive Israeli documents indicate an escalation in cyber operations, focusing on critical infrastructure attacks [10] Group 5: Global Terrorism - Iran may plan attacks in third countries against Israeli targets or citizens, leveraging its extensive experience in orchestrating global terror operations [11] - Despite a reduction in regional influence, Iran maintains a network capable of conducting operations in various regions, particularly in Iraq [11] Group 6: Nuclear Developments - Although Iran claims no intention to develop nuclear weapons, officials warn that external pressures could force a shift in this stance, potentially accelerating uranium enrichment to weapon-grade levels [12] - The upcoming nuclear talks in Oman are critical, as their outcome will influence Iran's potential use of its multi-layered retaliation options and the risk of broader conflict [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical performance of gold, its long-term returns, and factors influencing its price fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of understanding these elements for investment decisions [1][38]. Long-term Returns of Gold - Gold's long-term annualized return, adjusted for inflation, is approximately 0.6% from 1802 to 2021, indicating it has outperformed inflation over time [3][4]. - From 1971 to April 2025, gold's long-term annualized return is significantly higher at 8.6% [6]. Historical Bull and Bear Markets - The first bull and bear market occurred from 1971 to 2000, where gold surged from $37/oz to $850/oz, a 22-fold increase, followed by a 70% decline over the next 20 years [11]. - The second cycle from 2001 to 2016 saw gold rise to $1921/oz during the financial crises, followed by a 44% drop over six years [13]. - Post-2016, gold prices have been on an upward trend due to global uncertainties, including the pandemic and regional conflicts [15]. Volatility and Risk - Gold's volatility is around 28.93%, with a maximum drawdown of approximately 44%, comparable to a mixed fund with 60-70% equity exposure [17]. - Historical bear markets in A-shares have seen declines of up to 71%, indicating gold's risk level is slightly lower than equities but higher than bonds [17]. Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The primary factors affecting gold prices include: 1. **U.S. Dollar**: The real interest rate (nominal rate minus inflation) significantly impacts gold prices. A decrease in real rates typically leads to higher gold prices [21]. 2. **Mining Costs**: Current mining costs are around $1500/oz, and prices below this level may indicate a buying opportunity [24]. 3. **Geopolitical Risks**: Events like regional conflicts and financial crises often drive investors towards gold as a safe haven, increasing its price [25]. Investment Strategies and Considerations - Investment in gold can be categorized into three purposes: 1. **Decorative**: Jewelry, which has high premiums and is not primarily for investment [32]. 2. **Short-term Investment**: Gold funds, which are convenient for trading but may have management fees [33]. 3. **Long-term Hedge**: Physical gold, which serves as a hedge against extreme risks and is typically held long-term [35]. Conclusion - Gold remains a significant asset class for investment, with a long-term return that has improved since the end of the gold standard in 1971 [38]. - Key factors influencing gold prices include real interest rates, mining costs, and geopolitical risks, while its volatility is comparable to a mixed equity fund [39][40].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced fluctuations but managed to stabilize and close slightly higher, maintaining the $3200 per ounce level, although the path to recovery remains unclear [1][2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. April CPI data released was slightly below market expectations, indicating no abnormal rise in inflation, which supports the U.S. government's pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [1] - The market's risk appetite has improved due to substantial progress in U.S.-China trade talks [1] Market Dynamics - The dollar index fell rapidly from a high of 102, and if it continues to decline, it could provide stronger support for gold prices in the short term [1] - Ongoing regional conflicts continue to drive strong long-term safe-haven buying for gold [2] Technical Analysis - Gold prices are expected to remain within the $3150-$3450 range in May, with $3400 and above acting as a major resistance zone [2] - Currently, gold is in the lower-middle part of the fluctuation range, and if it confirms support at the $3200 level, the chances of an upward movement will increase [2] - The daily chart shows gold maintaining near the 30-day moving average, indicating signs of stabilization, but it needs to break through resistance to confirm a recovery trend [2] Short-term Outlook - The focus for gold prices is on the $3225-$3265 range; a breakout above this could lead to a challenge of the $3300 resistance, while a breakdown could test the $3200 support again [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the design of a "Golden Bull and Bear Signal Board" by the company, which helps in assessing the valuation of gold, similar to stock market indicators. The signal board is updated regularly to provide timely insights into gold price trends [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Overview - Gold prices are primarily referenced from London Gold for overseas markets and Shanghai Gold for domestic markets, with the latter being the standard for local pricing [6]. - As of May 2025, gold was rated at 1.0 star, indicating a low valuation, while it reached over 4 stars during its cheapest point in 2022 [9]. - The period from 2011 to 2016 saw a prolonged bear market for gold, with significant undervaluation opportunities, particularly in 2015-2016 [10]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The main factors affecting gold prices include: 1. **US Dollar**: The actual interest rate of the dollar, calculated as nominal interest rate minus inflation rate, significantly impacts gold prices. A decrease in actual interest rates typically leads to higher gold prices [14][19]. 2. **Mining Costs**: As of this year, the cost of gold mining is around $1500 per ounce, which has increased due to inflation and rising labor costs. Prices below this threshold indicate a potential buying opportunity [20]. 3. **Geopolitical Risks**: Events such as regional conflicts and financial crises often drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset, leading to price increases [20]. Group 3: Gold Volatility and Returns - Gold exhibits a volatility rate of approximately 29% and a maximum drawdown of around 44%, comparable to a mixed fund with a 60-70% stock allocation [23]. - Since 2012, the annualized return for Shanghai Gold has been about 6.49%, outperforming the pure bond index at 4.52% and closely matching the total return index of 6.54% [27]. Group 4: Investment Options in Gold - Investors can choose between gold funds and physical gold for investment: 1. **Gold Funds**: Typically yield slightly lower returns than physical gold due to management fees and cash reserves [31]. 2. **Physical Gold**: Includes gold bars, panda coins, and jewelry, with varying levels of premium and risk of counterfeit [35][39][40]. - The recommended allocation for gold in a household's asset portfolio is between 5% to 10% [29].

Group 1 - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu expresses determination to completely defeat Hamas [2] - The U.S. Treasury Department announces new sanctions against Iran [2] - Israeli Defense Minister warns that Houthi forces will face severe retaliation if they continue to fire [2] Group 2 - On May 8, Israeli airstrikes in western Gaza City resulted in 7 deaths and multiple injuries [2] - The U.S. State Department states that a solution to provide food and aid to the Gaza region is just one step away [2] - Maersk CEO comments on the high uncertainty regarding the agreement between the U.S. and Houthi forces, predicting that the Red Sea will remain closed to shipping throughout 2025 [2]

Market Impact - On May 8, the KSE-100 index in Pakistan fell by 7.1% to 102,208.40 points, marking the largest drop since 2008, while the KSE-30 index saw an 8.8% decline [1] - The Indian Nifty 50 index also experienced a decline of 0.5%, with the Indian volatility index rising to 21.48, the highest level since April 9 [4] Currency Fluctuations - The Indian Rupee depreciated nearly 1% against the US Dollar, reaching 85.6525 [6] Military Tensions - As of May 8, Pakistan's military reported shooting down over 25 Indian "Harop" drones since the initiation of India's "Red Mercury Operation" [9] - The Pakistani military stated that Indian drones have been continuously violating its airspace, leading to military casualties and damage to facilities [10][11] - The Pakistani military is currently on high alert due to ongoing drone incursions from India, with significant casualties reported from recent conflicts [11]

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巴基斯坦国防部长：巴基斯坦与印度的冲突"迫在眉睫"。 ...

美国副总统万斯：希望印度以一种不会导致更广泛地区冲突的方式回应恐袭。 ...