Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced fluctuations but managed to stabilize and close slightly higher, maintaining the $3200 per ounce level, although the path to recovery remains unclear [1][2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. April CPI data released was slightly below market expectations, indicating no abnormal rise in inflation, which supports the U.S. government's pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [1] - The market's risk appetite has improved due to substantial progress in U.S.-China trade talks [1] Market Dynamics - The dollar index fell rapidly from a high of 102, and if it continues to decline, it could provide stronger support for gold prices in the short term [1] - Ongoing regional conflicts continue to drive strong long-term safe-haven buying for gold [2] Technical Analysis - Gold prices are expected to remain within the $3150-$3450 range in May, with $3400 and above acting as a major resistance zone [2] - Currently, gold is in the lower-middle part of the fluctuation range, and if it confirms support at the $3200 level, the chances of an upward movement will increase [2] - The daily chart shows gold maintaining near the 30-day moving average, indicating signs of stabilization, but it needs to break through resistance to confirm a recovery trend [2] Short-term Outlook - The focus for gold prices is on the $3225-$3265 range; a breakout above this could lead to a challenge of the $3300 resistance, while a breakdown could test the $3200 support again [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the design of a "Golden Bull and Bear Signal Board" by the company, which helps in assessing the valuation of gold, similar to stock market indicators. The signal board is updated regularly to provide timely insights into gold price trends [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Overview - Gold prices are primarily referenced from London Gold for overseas markets and Shanghai Gold for domestic markets, with the latter being the standard for local pricing [6]. - As of May 2025, gold was rated at 1.0 star, indicating a low valuation, while it reached over 4 stars during its cheapest point in 2022 [9]. - The period from 2011 to 2016 saw a prolonged bear market for gold, with significant undervaluation opportunities, particularly in 2015-2016 [10]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The main factors affecting gold prices include: 1. **US Dollar**: The actual interest rate of the dollar, calculated as nominal interest rate minus inflation rate, significantly impacts gold prices. A decrease in actual interest rates typically leads to higher gold prices [14][19]. 2. **Mining Costs**: As of this year, the cost of gold mining is around $1500 per ounce, which has increased due to inflation and rising labor costs. Prices below this threshold indicate a potential buying opportunity [20]. 3. **Geopolitical Risks**: Events such as regional conflicts and financial crises often drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset, leading to price increases [20]. Group 3: Gold Volatility and Returns - Gold exhibits a volatility rate of approximately 29% and a maximum drawdown of around 44%, comparable to a mixed fund with a 60-70% stock allocation [23]. - Since 2012, the annualized return for Shanghai Gold has been about 6.49%, outperforming the pure bond index at 4.52% and closely matching the total return index of 6.54% [27]. Group 4: Investment Options in Gold - Investors can choose between gold funds and physical gold for investment: 1. **Gold Funds**: Typically yield slightly lower returns than physical gold due to management fees and cash reserves [31]. 2. **Physical Gold**: Includes gold bars, panda coins, and jewelry, with varying levels of premium and risk of counterfeit [35][39][40]. - The recommended allocation for gold in a household's asset portfolio is between 5% to 10% [29].

Group 1 - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu expresses determination to completely defeat Hamas [2] - The U.S. Treasury Department announces new sanctions against Iran [2] - Israeli Defense Minister warns that Houthi forces will face severe retaliation if they continue to fire [2] Group 2 - On May 8, Israeli airstrikes in western Gaza City resulted in 7 deaths and multiple injuries [2] - The U.S. State Department states that a solution to provide food and aid to the Gaza region is just one step away [2] - Maersk CEO comments on the high uncertainty regarding the agreement between the U.S. and Houthi forces, predicting that the Red Sea will remain closed to shipping throughout 2025 [2]

Market Impact - On May 8, the KSE-100 index in Pakistan fell by 7.1% to 102,208.40 points, marking the largest drop since 2008, while the KSE-30 index saw an 8.8% decline [1] - The Indian Nifty 50 index also experienced a decline of 0.5%, with the Indian volatility index rising to 21.48, the highest level since April 9 [4] Currency Fluctuations - The Indian Rupee depreciated nearly 1% against the US Dollar, reaching 85.6525 [6] Military Tensions - As of May 8, Pakistan's military reported shooting down over 25 Indian "Harop" drones since the initiation of India's "Red Mercury Operation" [9] - The Pakistani military stated that Indian drones have been continuously violating its airspace, leading to military casualties and damage to facilities [10][11] - The Pakistani military is currently on high alert due to ongoing drone incursions from India, with significant casualties reported from recent conflicts [11]

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