格隆汇1月9日丨随着伊朗爆发致命抗议活动以及美国发出报复威胁，原油市场对伊朗局势的反应日益剧 烈。布伦特原油期货在过去两个交易日上涨超过4%，此前该价格已回吐了上周末美军抓获委内瑞拉总 统马杜罗后带来的全部涨幅。交易员目前为对冲未来油价飙升而支付的期权溢价，已达到自去年夏天以 色列与伊朗互换空袭以来的最高水平。尽管委内瑞拉局势因美国计划将数百万桶原油推向全球市场而迅 速转为价格利空，但伊朗作为规模大得多的生产国和出口国，其任何供应中断的影响都将更为深远。 A/S Global Risk Management首席分析师 Arne Lohmann Rasmussen表示："焦点现已转向爆发暴力抗议的 伊朗。市场日益担心特朗普领导下的美国可能会利用这种混乱局面，尝试推翻该政权，就像我们在委内 瑞拉看到的那样。"本周布伦特原油看涨期权成交量超过75万份，为10月以来最高。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed will monitor the overall economic situation if oil prices surge [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is prepared to respond to rising oil prices and their potential impact on the economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed would consider the overall situation if oil prices surge [1] Group 1 - The Fed is closely monitoring oil price movements as they can impact economic conditions [1] - Powell's comments suggest that rising oil prices could influence monetary policy decisions [1]

Group 1: Dollar Insights - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that stablecoins could reinforce the dollar's dominance [2] - Federal Reserve's Daly mentioned that risks to the Fed's goals are roughly balanced, requiring attention to both employment and inflation [2] Group 2: Currency Movements - The dollar to yen exchange rate surpassed 147, reaching a new high since May 14 [2] - The New Zealand dollar and Australian dollar both hit one-month lows against the U.S. dollar [2] - The dollar to Thai baht rose to its highest level since May 20 [2] Group 3: Economic Stimulus and Interest Rates - ECB Governing Council member Centeno indicated that the Eurozone economy requires additional stimulus from the European Central Bank [2] - Moody's suggested that the Bank of Thailand may cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week [2] - Mitsubishi UFJ noted that the Philippine peso, South Korean won, and Thai baht are more susceptible to the impact of rising oil prices [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalation of tensions between the U.S. and Iran following U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, highlighting the potential global implications and market reactions. Group 1: U.S. Actions and Responses - On June 22, the U.S. State Department issued a global security alert due to escalating conflicts between Israel and Iran, warning of potential protests against U.S. citizens and interests worldwide [2][4]. - Following the airstrikes, the U.S. has heightened domestic security measures, with the FBI and Department of Homeland Security conducting briefings to state officials about the current threat environment [6][8]. - The U.S. military's operation, named "Midnight Hammer," involved over 125 aircraft, including B-2 stealth bombers, targeting three Iranian nuclear facilities, resulting in significant damage [7][8]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Global stock markets reacted negatively to the escalation, with major indices such as the KOSPI, Nikkei 225, and U.S. stock futures all showing declines [2]. - The potential for increased tensions has raised concerns about oil prices, with analysts warning that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could lead to prices exceeding $100 per barrel [14][15]. Group 3: Iranian Responses - Iranian President Pezeshkian stated that the U.S. must face consequences for its aggressive actions, emphasizing that Iran has never initiated conflict but will defend itself against military aggression [10]. - Iranian officials have indicated the possibility of closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global oil and gas transport, which could significantly impact energy supplies and prices [14][15]. Group 4: Energy Market Implications - The Strait of Hormuz is vital for global energy, with approximately 20% of the world's oil and gas passing through it. Any disruption could lead to soaring oil prices and increased shipping risks [14][15]. - Analysts predict that if Iranian oil exports are interrupted, Brent crude prices could rise by 15% to 20%, with extreme scenarios suggesting prices could reach $120 to $130 per barrel [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley indicates that in extreme conflict scenarios, including the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could surge to between $120 and $130 per barrel [1] Group 1 - The potential for oil price escalation is linked to geopolitical tensions in the region [1] - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil supply, making it a focal point for price volatility [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government, led by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, is set to explore measures to address the potential impact of rising oil prices due to unrest in the Middle East [1] Group 1 - The government is concerned about the implications of escalating oil prices on the economy [1] - There is an acknowledgment of the need for proactive strategies to mitigate the effects of oil price surges [1] - The situation in the Middle East is identified as a significant factor influencing global oil markets [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the ongoing tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, are causing significant uncertainty in the global energy market, with concerns over potential oil supply disruptions [1] - Macquarie's commodity strategist Marcus Garvey warns that in an extreme scenario where Iranian oil supply is completely cut off and the Strait of Hormuz is closed, oil prices could exceed $200 per barrel, compared to the current price around $70 [1][2] - Historical experiences indicate that the market is highly sensitive to large-scale disruptions in oil supply, leading to dramatic price reactions [2] Group 2 - Macquarie's analysis suggests that the current market reflects a moderate increase in risk premium, with Brent crude oil prices potentially rising to over $80 per barrel in the short term, which is $10 higher than recent levels [4] - The market outlook may diverge in the coming weeks; if tensions ease, oil prices may return to fundamentals, while further attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure could push prices towards $100 or higher [4] - Recent attacks on Iranian oil facilities by Israel have already impacted market sentiment, with WTI crude oil experiencing a volatile trading session [4]

Group 1 - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is escalating, with oil prices at risk of significant increases due to recent airstrikes on Iranian oil facilities by Israel [1] - Morgan Stanley's commodity analyst Natasha Kaneva has raised the probability of a "worst-case scenario" from 7% to 17%, indicating a higher likelihood of oil price surges if the Strait of Hormuz is closed [1][2] - The current geopolitical premium on oil prices is $10 above the fair value of $66 per barrel, suggesting potential for further price increases [1] Group 2 - The Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for 20% of global oil supply, is under scrutiny, with analysts noting that sustained high energy prices could reignite inflation, countering recent trends of declining consumer prices in the U.S. [2] - Deutsche Bank's energy analyst Hsueh outlined three potential supply disruption scenarios that could push Brent crude prices above $100 per barrel, with a forecasted reduction of Iranian oil exports by 400,000 barrels per day by year-end [2][3] - Market pricing currently reflects only moderate risk scenarios, indicating that the potential for a closure of the Strait of Hormuz is not fully accounted for in oil futures [4] Group 3 - The market appears unprepared for extreme scenarios, with potential for significant oil price volatility if conflicts escalate [6] - Gold is showing potential as a safe-haven asset amid rising tensions, while commodity trading advisors are closely monitoring opportunities for oil price breakouts [6]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market opened lower on June 13, with the Dow Jones down 1.32%, S&P 500 down 0.79%, and Nasdaq down 0.83% [2][3] - Major tech stocks experienced declines, with Nvidia, Amazon, and Google down over 1%, while Apple and Tesla fell nearly 1% [3][4] Energy Sector Performance - Energy stocks surged, with Houston Energy experiencing a significant spike, reaching a peak increase of over 160% [5][6] - U.S. energy stocks rose by more than 90%, indicating strong performance in the sector [5][6] - Houston Energy's stock (HUSA) saw a dramatic increase of 136.62%, with trading volume reaching 15.57 million shares and a total value of $236 million [6] International Oil Prices - International oil prices surged, with U.S. oil rising by 7% and Brent oil also increasing by nearly 7% [9] - Morgan Stanley previously indicated that an attack on Iran could push oil prices to $120 per barrel, impacting consumer price indices [12] Geopolitical Tensions - Iran officially withdrew from nuclear negotiations with the U.S., escalating tensions in the region [12] - Israel conducted preemptive strikes against Iran, resulting in casualties and further military actions planned [12][13] - The U.S. is mobilizing military resources in response to the situation, with naval assets being deployed to the eastern Mediterranean [13]