Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant shift in market dynamics due to Trump's tariff policies and geopolitical conflicts, which have disrupted initial predictions for the year, leading to poor performance of previously favored assets like the US dollar and US stocks, while European markets and emerging markets have emerged as unexpected winners [1][2][13] Group 2 - The US dollar has experienced its worst start to the year since 2005, contrary to expectations that Trump's policies would strengthen it due to anticipated inflation and reduced likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts [2][5] - The S&P 500 index saw a dramatic decline followed by a rapid recovery, with investor sentiment shifting significantly after Trump's decision to pause some tariffs, leading to a new historical high for the index [6][13] Group 3 - European stocks have outperformed US stocks, with the Stoxx 600 index beating the S&P 500 by 16 percentage points as of June 27, marking the best relative performance since 2016 [13] - Emerging markets have finally broken a trend of underperformance against US stocks, with a wealth increase of $1.8 trillion for shareholders in 2025, reaching a record market capitalization of $29 trillion [14] Group 4 - The Japanese yen has rebounded significantly against the dollar, with a nearly 9% decline in the dollar/yen exchange rate, reflecting a shift in market sentiment and demand for safe-haven assets [8][11] - Global bond markets are experiencing increased differentiation, with short-term government bonds performing well due to anticipated rate cuts, while long-term bonds face pressure from rising government debt [12]

Group 1: Conference Overview - The CITIC Futures 2025 Mid-Year Strategy Conference was held on June 25, 2025, in Shanghai, focusing on the theme "Riding the Wind and Breaking the Waves" [1] - The conference featured one main forum and ten sub-forums, covering macroeconomics, equity, bonds, commodities, exchange rates, asset management, OTC derivatives, and overseas markets [1] Group 2: Keynote Speeches - CITIC Futures Chairman Dou Changhong emphasized the company's commitment to high-quality industrial services and the globalization of futures business [2] - Fudan University Professor Shen Guobing discussed the impact of Trump's tariff policies on Sino-U.S. trade, highlighting the challenges of trade fragmentation, geopolitical conflicts, and climate crises [3] - Yang Delong, Chief Economist at Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund, noted that U.S. stocks are in a high valuation phase, while A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are attracting significant foreign investment [4] Group 3: Market Outlooks - CITIC Futures Vice President Zeng Ning provided an outlook on the macro and commodity markets, indicating that the real estate sector will continue to drag down commodity demand for 1-2 years [5] - The Financial Forum discussed the shift from tariff-driven to dollar-driven macro themes, with a focus on structural allocation in A-shares [6] - The Nonferrous Forum highlighted the influence of U.S. trade policies on the market, with basic metals expected to remain strong despite macro uncertainties [8] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The Agricultural Forum indicated that many agricultural products are facing price declines due to high supply, with potential supply contractions in the future [9] - The Black Forum discussed the cyclical downturn in construction steel demand, while the coal and coke markets face long-term pressure [10] - The Energy Transition Forum addressed the oversupply pressures in both traditional and new energy sectors, with coal and natural gas markets expected to face challenges [11][12] Group 5: Investment Strategies - The Asset Management Forum explored the innovative use of derivatives in wealth management, emphasizing the importance of risk management tools [15] - The Chemical Forum discussed the relationship between refined oil and chemical products, with a focus on market dynamics and potential investment opportunities [14] Group 6: Conclusion - The conference successfully provided a platform for sharing insights and strategies, reinforcing CITIC Futures' commitment to compliance, integrity, professionalism, and responsibility in the industry [16]

周三（6月25日），"特朗普关税输家"指数跌0.47%，报96.32点。 ...

半导体指数和银行指数各涨0.8%，小盘股指跌0.9%；科技股七巨头指数涨0.9%，"特朗普关税输家指 数"跌0.4%。 纳斯达克100指数初步收涨0.1%，Grail涨5.2%，英伟达涨4%，AMD、MSTR、谷歌A、CrowdStrike至多 涨3.8%，AppLovin则跌3.5%，德康医疗跌3.6%，特斯拉跌3.9%，ADP跌4.3%，Paychex跌9.4%。 标普500指数初步微幅收跌，房地产板块跌2.3%，公用事业、日用消费品、可选消费板块至多跌1.4%， 科技板块则涨1.1%。 ...

智通财经6月25日电，美国商务部周二发布报告显示，第一季度流入美国的外国直接投资从2024年第四 季度的799亿美元大幅下降至528亿美元。经济学家警告称，特朗普关税政策带来的极端不确定性可能会 使企业的投资决策陷入瘫痪，并拖累经济增长。特朗普曾辩称，他的关税政策会促使企业掀起投资热 潮。 美国一季度外资流入大幅下降 ...

智通财经APP获悉，在最新报告中，美银全球研究的两位经济学家Aditya Bhave和Shruti Mishra指出，如 果就业市场保持韧性，那么特朗普关税带来的通胀压力或将使美联储在2025年全年无法降息。这也是他 们目前的"基准情境"预测。 但他们同时也警告称，若经济出现"断裂"，很可能会在今夏结束前发生，届时美联储可能会采取大幅度 宽松措施，应对潜在的经济衰退风险。 "我们认为前景呈现双峰分布。"两位经济学家在周二发给MarketWatch的报告中写道："如果就业市场像 我们预期的那样保持坚挺，那么关税推动的通胀就可能足以阻止美联储降息；但如果经济出现问题，我 们认为会发生在夏季，而非更晚。" 如果后一种情境成真，他们预计美联储最快将在9月大幅降息75个基点。 美银的预测与美联储内部的利率前景展望出现明显分歧。上周美联储公布的最新"点阵图"显示，联邦公 开市场委员会(FOMC)内部已经明显分化：约一半成员预计2025年前将维持利率不变；另一半则预计至 少两次降息，第一次最早可能出现在9月。 美联储理事沃勒上周末表示，美联储最快7月就可能降息，而另一位理事鲍曼本周一也表示，她愿意支 持下月的降息。 不过， ...

成分股Fluence Energy收涨4.98%，百思买涨3.73%，孩之宝涨2.82%，蔻驰、美泰至多涨1.8%。 美元树则跌1.82%。 周二（6月24日），"特朗普关税输家"指数涨1.02%，报96.78点。 ...

美联储威廉姆斯：不确定性与特朗普关税同等重要。 ...

6月24日，中信期货2025年中策略会在上海浦东召开。本次策略会以"御风破浪，笃行致远"为主 题，会期两天，共设置1个主论坛及10个分论坛，以多元化视角对下半年宏观、权益、债券、大宗商 品、汇率、资产管理、场外衍生品、海外市场等内容进行深入思考和展望。策略会期间，来自产业、金 融以及其他行业的投资者共聚现场，共享本次投资交流的盛宴。 "今年上半年，全球经贸格局面临深刻变革，在全球价值链深度重构与地缘政治博弈叠加的变局周 期，寻求稳定发展十分重要。"中信期货董事长窦长宏在主论坛上致辞表示，在国际贸易环境波动与海 外政策不确定性背景下，中国经济以战略定力锚定高质量发展。在政策组合拳支撑下，出口彰显韧性， 内需提振政策逐步落地，资本市场与房地产支持政策频繁出台，全面支持中国经济基本面的稳中向好。 复旦大学世界经济研究所副所长、经济学院教授沈国兵在主论坛上发表了关于《特朗普关税政策对 中美经贸影响及应对》的主题演讲。他认为，中美当前面临的世界经济新形势复杂多变，充满着不确定 性。全球经济面临"贸易碎片化、地缘冲突、气候危机"三重挑战，而多边合作与包容性增长是避免全 球"失序分化"的关键。 沈国兵在会上指出，从海外来看 ...

标普500指数初步收涨0.9%，可选消费、房地产、日用消费品、工业、原材料、公用事业、金融、科技 板块张超1%，能源板块跌2.5%。 纳斯达克100指数初步收涨1.1%，成分股特斯拉涨8.3%，核电概念股CEG涨3.3%，Arm控股涨3.1%，谷 歌A、渤健、吉利德科学、贝克休斯、迈威尔科技、Diamondback Energy、Grail、安进跌1%-5.8%。 费城半导体指数涨0.5%，银行指数涨1.6%；美国科技股七巨头指数涨0.9%，"特朗普关税输家指数"涨 0.6%。 ...