Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Tin, Rare Earths, and Tungsten sectors are highlighted for their current market dynamics and investment opportunities [1][2][4][5]. Tin Market Insights - **Inventory Reduction**: Global tin ingot visible inventory decreased by approximately 3,000-4,000 tons over two weeks, with LME inventory down by 300-400 tons and domestic social inventory down by nearly 2,000 tons [2][3]. - **Price Dynamics**: Tin prices fluctuated from 450,000 CNY/ton to a low of 340,000 CNY/ton, maintaining an average above 350,000 CNY/ton, indicating strong market support despite price volatility [2][3]. - **Demand Structure**: Emerging demands from sectors like AI servers and PCBs show higher price tolerance compared to traditional sectors, suggesting a structural shift in demand [2][3]. - **Indonesian Supply Issues**: Indonesian tin trading volume shifted from a year-on-year increase of 10% to a decrease of 10%, attributed to stricter regulations and approval delays [2][3]. - **Energy Crisis Impact**: The ongoing energy crisis may affect tin mining and shipping in key regions like the Democratic Republic of Congo and Myanmar, which together account for nearly 15% of global tin supply [3]. Rare Earth Market Insights - **Supply and Demand Changes**: Domestic rare earth production decreased by about 2% year-on-year in early 2026, while exports increased by 8%, indicating a tightening supply and strong demand [4]. - **Price Outlook**: Rare earth prices have stabilized and are expected to rise, potentially approaching historical highs due to the dual factors of supply contraction and robust demand from electric vehicles [4]. Tungsten Market Insights - **Market Conditions**: The tungsten market is nearing a price turning point, with a decrease in the supply of recycled tungsten and low overall inventory levels [5]. - **Price Recovery Expectations**: Once recycled tungsten prices stabilize, the downward pressure on tungsten concentrate prices is expected to ease, leading to a potential price increase [5]. Investment Recommendations - **Tin Investment Targets**: Recommended companies include Xinjing Road, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Xiyu Co. [1][4]. - **Rare Earth Investment Focus**: North Rare Earth is highlighted as a top pick, with additional interest in China Northern Rare Earth Group [4]. - **Tungsten Investment Focus**: Zhongtung High-tech is noted as a strong investment candidate due to its straightforward investment logic and reasonable valuation [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The negotiation between the US and Iran has no obvious progress, and both sides have started a new round of chicken game. If the situation develops to the worst, the power plants and energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf will face a high risk of being attacked, leading to a short - term upward risk for oil prices [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - As of the day's close, the May - delivery light crude oil futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $3.24 to $102.88 per barrel, a 3.25% increase; the May - delivery Brent crude oil futures price rose 21 cents to $112.78 per barrel, a 0.19% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 0.41% at 760 yuan per barrel [1]. - The Kuwaiti oil tanker "Al - Salmi" was attacked by Iran in Dubai Port, causing hull damage and fire on board, but no casualties. The incident may lead to oil spills in the surrounding waters [1]. - The US Treasury extended the license to allow negotiations and signing of contingent contracts for the sale of Rosneft International's equity until May 1 [1]. - Sri Lanka's Ceypetco is negotiating with Russian oil companies to import petroleum products due to limited oil supply and soaring prices in the Middle East. It usually buys most of its crude oil from the UAE, and refined oil products from India and Singapore [1]. - Australian Prime Minister Albanese will hold a national cabinet meeting to address the energy crisis, with the main focus on strengthening the supply chain and discussing fuel rationing [1]. - Mexican President Obrador said that private companies are trying to buy fuel from Mexico's state - owned oil company and transport it to Cuba [1]. Investment Logic The lack of progress in US - Iran negotiations and the threats between the two sides increase the risk of attacks on power plants and energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, resulting in short - term upward pressure on oil prices [2]. Strategy Due to the high volatility of oil prices affected by short - term geopolitical situations, it is risky to participate in the crude oil market currently. It is recommended to use options to hedge risks [3]. Risks - Downward risks: The Middle East war eases, the Strait resumes navigation, and the energy crisis triggers a global economic crisis [4]. - Upward risks: The suspension time of the Strait of Hormuz exceeds expectations [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report predicts that the prices of coking coal and coke may first decline and then rise in the future. Despite short - term adjustments, the prices are expected to maintain an upward trend due to the easing of the tense situation in the news, the recovery of coke supply, the replenishment of coke inventory by steel mills, and the replenishment of coking coal inventory by coking plants [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与后市展望 - **Market Performance on March 30th**: The main contracts 2605 of coke and coking coal futures rebounded and then weakened again. The closing price of J2605 was 1753.5 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.20%, and the trading volume was 13,198 lots. The closing price of JM2605 was 1214 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.33%, and the trading volume was 756,767 lots [6]. - **Spot Market and Technical Analysis**: On March 30th, the spot prices of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port remained unchanged at 1470 yuan/ton. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Luliang decreased by 73 yuan/ton to 1530 yuan/ton. The KDJ indicators of the daily lines of coke and coking coal 2605 contracts continued to decline, and the red bars of the MACD of the daily lines of the two contracts narrowed for 4 consecutive trading days [9]. - **Future Outlook**: The BHP event has shown some signs of improvement, and the conflict between the US and Iran may ease. In terms of fundamentals, independent coking enterprises have been profitable for 2 consecutive weeks, and their coke production has reached a new high since late October last year. The coke inventories of ports and steel mills have increased for 2 - 3 consecutive weeks, while the coke inventory of coking enterprises has decreased for 3 consecutive weeks. From March 16th to 21st, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased by 2.8% on average at the Ganqimaodu Port. The coking coal inventory of coking plants has significantly increased from a low level in the past 3 weeks, and the coking coal inventory of steel mills has increased steadily [10][11]. 3.2 Industry News - **Environmental Protection Supervision**: The third round and fifth batch of the Central Ecological and Environmental Protection Inspection Teams have provided feedback on routine inspections to 3 provinces (municipalities) including Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei, and 5 central enterprises. They have also provided written feedback on the special inspection of the ecological environment protection of the Grand Canal to 8 provinces (municipalities) [12]. - **Atmospheric Pollution Prevention**: The Ministry of Ecology and Environment held a symposium on the prevention and control of air pollution in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. The minister emphasized focusing on the structural adjustment of key industries, the clean and efficient use of coal, and the clean transportation of key industries [12]. - **Automobile Sales**: In 2025, the global automobile sales volume was 96.89 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6%. In February 2026, the global automobile sales volume was 6.74 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2%. From January to February 2026, the global automobile sales volume was 13.96 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The share of the Chinese automobile market in the world decreased from 35.4% in 2025 to 29.7% in 2026 [12]. - **Climate in the Yangtze River Basin**: The climate in the Yangtze River Basin in 2026 is generally poor. It is expected that the precipitation during the flood season will be normal to slightly less, and the water inflow will be low, with uneven temporal and spatial distribution [13]. - **Corporate Reports**: In 2025, China National Coal Group Corporation's operating income was 148.057 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 21.83%; its net profit was 17.884 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 7.27%. Shanghai Energy's operating income was 7.677 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 19.09%; its net profit was 220 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 69.2%. Huaibei Mining's operating income was 41.238 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 37.40%; its net profit was 1.506 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 68.98%. Hengyuan Coal & Electricity's operating income was 5.533 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 20.65%; it had a net loss of 192 million yuan [13]. - **International Events**: An Iranian steel plant suspended production due to air strikes. Maersk will charge an inland fuel surcharge in the US. The probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 2.1%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 97.9%. Indonesia plans to promote the B50 biodiesel blending policy this year. Australia will halve the fuel tax for three months and postpone the next fuel tax increase by 6 months. South Korea may expand driving restrictions if oil prices exceed $120 per barrel. Egypt has taken energy - saving measures. India plans to negotiate with Argentina, Indonesia, and Oman to ensure the supply of key steel - making raw materials [13][14]. 3.3 Data Overview The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke, the spot price of main coking coal, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants and steel mills, the daily average pig iron production, the coke and coking coal inventories of ports, steel mills, and coking plants, and the basis of coke and coking coal contracts [16][20][21][28][29][30].

Core Insights - The current energy crisis is characterized by unprecedented physical disruptions in oil and gas markets, with significant implications for pricing and demand [1][5][10] Oil Market Analysis - The total disruption amounts to approximately 20 million barrels per day of oil and products, with a shortfall of 9 to 10 million barrels expected [2] - If the crisis persists, demand destruction could necessitate a reduction of around 10 million barrels per day to stabilize the market [8] - Current high prices for products like jet fuel and gasoline are already leading to demand reductions, indicating a potential for further demand destruction [9][10] Gas Market Vulnerability - Gas markets are deemed more vulnerable than oil markets due to a lack of significant offsets to supply disruptions [3][4] - The crisis is expected to initially impact Asia more severely, as over 70% of Middle Eastern oil flows to Asia, leading to early demand reductions in that region [6][7] Long-term Market Changes - The resolution of the crisis may lead to permanent changes in demand forecasts, with a likelihood of sustained high prices prompting a shift towards alternative energy sources [13] - Countries may increase their strategic stockpiling of oil and gas to mitigate future crises, which could create bullish demand for these products [14] Price Projections - If the current disruptions continue, oil prices could potentially reach levels of $170 to $200 per barrel [14]

Performance Overview - Southeast Asia ETF rose by 0.90% over the two-week period from March 14 to March 27, 2026, outperforming Japan, Latin America, Africa, the UK, China, India, and the US[3] - The Southeast Asia Technology ETF declined by 3.19%, underperforming the broader Southeast Asia ETF by 4.09 percentage points[3] Country-Specific Performance - iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF fell by 0.84%, underperforming by 1.74 percentage points, influenced by external energy cost shocks and domestic fiscal consolidation efforts[4] - iShares MSCI Singapore ETF increased by 1.66%, outperforming by 0.76 percentage points, supported by government energy subsidy measures despite external inflation pressures[4] - iShares MSCI Thailand ETF gained 1.27%, outperforming by 0.37 percentage points, with stable market conditions bolstered by clear government policies[4] - iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF decreased by 0.73%, underperforming by 1.63 percentage points, primarily due to surging diesel prices impacting costs[4] - Global X MSCI Vietnam ETF dropped by 0.70%, underperforming by 1.60 percentage points, as the market reacted negatively to the global energy crisis despite government relief measures[4] Market Liquidity - Trading volumes for Southeast Asia ETFs decreased significantly, with Global X FTSE Southeast Asia ETF trading volume down by 48.2% to 315,000 shares[15] - iShares MSCI Singapore ETF saw a trading volume decline of 40.2% to 9.381 million shares, while iShares MSCI Thailand ETF experienced a 65.9% drop to 896,000 shares[15] Risk Factors - Macroeconomic volatility risks in Southeast Asia due to external demand weakness and policy easing uncertainties[5] - Geopolitical risks affecting regional supply chains and increasing instability[5]

Core Viewpoint - Egypt is implementing a series of emergency energy-saving measures in response to the energy crisis caused by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, including early closing times for shops and restaurants, and dimming street and advertisement lights [1][2]. Group 1: Emergency Measures - From February 28, Egypt's government has mandated that shops and dining establishments close by 21:00 on weekdays, with extended hours until 22:00 on weekends and public holidays [1][2]. - Supermarkets, bakeries, pharmacies, and dining venues in airports, ports, train stations, and hotels are exempt from these restrictions, as are tourist destinations like Cairo and Luxor [2][3]. - Additional measures include slowing down the construction of high-energy-consuming projects and reducing government vehicle fuel allocations by 30% [2][3]. Group 2: Impact of Global Events - The military actions initiated by the US and Israel against Iran on February 28 have severely disrupted shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz, affecting energy markets, maritime transport, and global supply chains, with Egypt being impacted as well [2][3]. Group 3: Energy Supply Context - Egypt's electricity supply is predominantly generated from thermal power, accounting for 87% of total generation, with natural gas being the primary fuel source, contributing to 76% of total electricity generation [4]. - Historically, Egypt was a natural gas exporter in the Middle East, but due to declining output from aging gas fields and a lack of investment in new fields, the country is increasingly reliant on imported natural gas to meet its growing domestic demand [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of escalating tensions in the Middle East on South Korea's energy supply, particularly focusing on the government's decision to ban naphtha exports to alleviate domestic supply shortages amid rising prices and potential supply chain disruptions [1][9]. Group 1: Naphtha Export Ban - South Korea has implemented a complete ban on naphtha exports starting from March 27 for a period of five months to address domestic supply shortages [1][9]. - Naphtha prices have surged over 50% since last month, leading to significant operational challenges for major petrochemical companies like LG Chem, which has had to shut down parts of its production facilities [1][8]. - The government is considering further export restrictions on petrochemical products due to the ongoing Middle East situation and its impact on energy supply [1][9]. Group 2: Supply Chain Concerns - A "garbage bag buying spree" has occurred in South Korea, reflecting public anxiety over potential supply shortages, despite government assurances of sufficient inventory [6][7]. - Approximately 71% of surveyed companies reported receiving notifications of reduced supply or halted deliveries from upstream suppliers, with 92% expecting price increases for raw materials [7][8]. - South Korea imports about 45% of its naphtha, with 77% of that coming from the Middle East, making it particularly vulnerable to supply disruptions from countries like the UAE and Qatar [8][9]. Group 3: Energy Security Alerts - South Korea has raised its energy security alert level multiple times in March, moving from "attention" to "emergency mode" due to the worsening situation [10][11]. - The government plans to release a total of 22.46 million barrels from its strategic oil reserves over the next three months and has initiated energy-saving measures across public institutions [11][12]. - Analysts warn that disruptions in the petrochemical supply chain could lead to production halts in downstream industries such as automotive, appliances, shipbuilding, and construction [12]. Group 4: Economic Implications - The trade deficit for South Korea reached $12 billion in the first two months of the year, raising concerns about the impact of high energy import costs on currency depreciation and external debt [12]. - The article suggests that the current crisis may accelerate South Korea's transition towards renewable energy sources in the long term [12].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The report highlights that precious metals are strengthening in the long term despite market volatility, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and high oil prices, which are influencing market expectations for interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [5] - Copper prices are under pressure due to recession expectations linked to rising oil prices, although there is potential for a rebound if prices drop below 90,000 CNY/ton [6] - Aluminum prices are expected to have long-term upward potential, supported by supply disruptions from geopolitical conflicts and increasing demand as domestic inventories begin to decline [7] - Lithium prices have surged due to energy security concerns, with expectations of strong demand from the electric vehicle sector and storage orders [9] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is 8687.44, with a 52-week high of 11180.33 and a low of 4295.55 [2] Price Movements - LME copper decreased by 0.65%, while aluminum increased by 1.83% this week [21] - Lithium prices rose by 7.85% [22] Inventory Changes - Global visible copper inventory decreased by 22,813 tons, aluminum by 1,963 tons, zinc by 6,638 tons, lead by 6,561 tons, tin by 1,659 tons, and nickel by 1,781 tons [30][32] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Dongfang Tantalum, Xinjing Road, Xiyu Co., Huaxi Nonferrous, Dazhong Mining, Guocheng Mining, Zhongkuang Resources, Shengda Resources, Chifeng Gold, Zijin Gold International, Shenhuo Co., and Zijin Mining [10]

Group 1: Energy Crisis in Asia-Pacific - The Philippines has declared a national energy emergency due to the Iran war, marking the first country to do so, with fuel reserves dropping from 55-57 days to 45 days in less than a month [4][3] - South Korea has imposed a fuel price cap for the first time in 30 years and initiated a 100 trillion won ($66.5 billion) market stabilization program, alongside a 25 trillion won emergency budget [1][3] - Indonesia has assured the Philippines that there will be no limits on coal orders, as the country plans to temporarily increase coal usage, which already generates about 60% of its electricity [2] Group 2: Government Measures and Public Response - The Philippine government is providing 5,000 pesos (approximately $83) to motorcycle taxi drivers and offering free bus rides to students as part of emergency measures [3] - Emergency fuel purchases are being made, and the government is cracking down on hoarding while seeking permission to buy oil from sanctioned countries like Iran and Venezuela [3][4] - In India, panic buying of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) occurred, leading to a 28% increase in domestic LPG production within five days [5][10] Group 3: Global Energy Market Impact - Japan has released 80 million barrels from strategic reserves, the largest release since the 1970s, to address supply issues, while also pressing the International Energy Agency for more reserves [5][11] - The national average for a gallon of regular gas in the U.S. reached $3.98, up more than a dollar since January, with diesel prices exceeding $5 nationwide [9][10] - Analysts warn that if the crisis continues, fuel shortages in Asia will likely spread to Europe by April, drawing comparisons to the 1973 Arab oil embargo [12][14]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing US-Iran conflict has exceeded initial expectations of resolution within four weeks, evolving into a "fight while negotiating" scenario, characterized by extreme strategic gamesmanship [1]. Group 1: Recent Developments - The US military is preparing to seize Khark Island, which is crucial for Iran's oil exports, aiming to cut off Iran's economic lifeline without occupying territory or engaging in a prolonged conflict [2][10]. - The US plans to deploy up to 10,000 additional ground troops to the Middle East, while Iran has mobilized over 1 million combat personnel in response [2]. - Negotiations between the US and Iran are at an impasse, with the US demanding the reopening of the Strait and resolution of nuclear issues, while Iran seeks guarantees against future conflicts and compensation [2][9]. Group 2: Signs of De-escalation - There are indications of a potential de-escalation, as US Vice President Vance stated that the US has no intention of remaining in Iran and will withdraw after addressing current issues [3][10]. - Trump's approval ratings have plummeted to a historic low of 36%, coinciding with rising anti-war sentiments and protests in the US [3][12]. - The conflict has led to unexpected outcomes, including a surge in oil prices and military expenditures, with the US requesting an additional $200 billion for military budgets [3][12]. Group 3: Future Scenarios - The future of the conflict hinges on three potential scenarios: 1. Substantial negotiations leading to a de-escalation and a dignified exit for the US, resulting in a significant drop in energy prices and easing inflation concerns [4][20]. 2. A prolonged psychological battle with both sides accumulating leverage, leading to high volatility in oil prices and global markets [4][24]. 3. A strategy of deception aimed at prolonging the conflict, potentially resulting in a long-term war and a global energy crisis reminiscent of the 1970s [4][30]. Group 4: Economic Implications - The conflict has caused significant fluctuations in global asset prices, with oil prices experiencing a dramatic drop of over 9% before rebounding due to ongoing tensions [11]. - High oil prices are exacerbating inflation in the US, with Brent crude rising from $70 to nearly $120 per barrel, impacting consumer prices and economic growth [13][14]. - The potential for a prolonged conflict could lead to a significant economic downturn, with the risk of stagflation and recession looming if oil prices remain elevated [13][15].