Report Summary 1. Core View - In the context of the domestic "anti-involution" theme, the mid - and downstream black and chemical sectors have relative returns, and processing profits still face the need for repair [3] - Refining profits are passively repaired, and the processing demand in the peak season of the fourth quarter recedes [33] 2. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - related Commodity Prices - The report presents the unit heat - value price performance of energy - related commodities and the cumulative price changes of commodities in the post - energy - crisis era, including TTF natural gas futures, API2 Rotterdam Q6000 coal futures, ICE NEWC futures, and Brent crude oil futures [3][4] Crude Oil Spot and Futures Spreads - It shows the spot - futures spreads of various crude oils such as Forties, IK Fisker crude, CPC Blend CIF, etc., and the spreads between different crude oil futures contracts like Brent C1 - C7, dated BFOE - WTI Cushing, etc [6] OPEC+ Production - Displays OPEC+ production, production quotas, target production, and the production of Saudi Arabia and Russia. Also shows the weekly loading volume of crude oil from 9 OPEC countries [8] Crude Oil Exports - Presents the crude oil exports of Iran and Venezuela, including their exports to China [11] Geopolitical Risks - Displays the probability forecasts of geopolitical events such as the US - Iran nuclear agreement, Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement in 2025 [12] US Oil Production - Covers the number of non - Gulf of Mexico oil rigs in the US, the monthly average price of WTI (with a 4 - month lag), the breakdown of new shale oil production in the US, and the dynamic adjustment of US crude oil production forecasts [15][16][17] Non - OPEC and Other Regions' Oil Supply - Shows the oil supply growth rate of non - OPEC, Russia, and shale oil regions, the crude oil and condensate production of 4 American countries, and the new conventional production capacity in 2025 in countries like Norway, the US, etc [19] Federal Reserve Policy and Global Manufacturing - Displays the pricing of the remaining number of Fed rate hikes in 2025 and the global manufacturing PMI of the US, Eurozone, Japan, China, India, etc [22] Global Oil Demand - Shows the downward adjustment of global oil demand growth rate by institutions in April 2025 and the forecast of global oil demand growth rate by product [24] US and Chinese Oil Product Demand - Presents the year - on - year growth rate of the 4 - week average of US refined oil product demand, the demand for gasoline and diesel in China, and China's refined oil product exports [28][31] Refining Profits and Capacity Utilization - Displays the comprehensive refining profits of refineries in Singapore, Northwest Europe, and the US Gulf, the refining margins of Chinese refineries, and the capacity utilization rates of Chinese and international refineries [34] Crude Oil and Oil Product Inventories - Covers the on - land commercial inventory, floating storage inventory, and total inventory of crude oil, as well as the global inventory of refined oil products, light distillates, diesel, kerosene, fuel oil, etc [36][38] OPEC+ Supply - Demand Balance - Shows the global demand for OPEC+ crude oil supply under the baseline scenario, the supply - demand gap, and the global oil inventory [40] Other Oil - related Data - Displays the monthly asphalt production of domestic refineries, the shipping destination structure of Venezuelan oil, the spot - futures spreads of Singapore fuel oil, the ship - refueling spreads, and the high - low sulfur spreads [43][52][53]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Neutral [7] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [7] Core Viewpoints - Energy crisis concerns are premature, and the spot price of alumina is rapidly declining [1] - Aluminum consumption shows marginal weakening, and inventory reduction is slowing down, but the absolute inventory is at a historical low. Alumina prices are in a downward trend, and the smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum is expanding [6] - The cost of alumina remains stable, while production and inventory are increasing. The spot price is falling rapidly, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged, making the price more likely to fall than rise [6] - The supply of scrap aluminum for aluminum alloy is tight, and the smelting loss is at a historically high level. Cost support is emerging, and cross - variety arbitrage can be considered [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum - **Price**: As of the week of June 20, 2025, the LME aluminum price increased by 1.79% to $2,561.5/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract increased by 1.06% to 20,465 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum spot premium (0 - 3) changed from -$0.42/ton last week to $11.16/ton [1] - **Supply**: As of the week of June 20, the weekly operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained basically stable and will maintain a steady and slight increase in the future. The built - in capacity is 45.2 million tons, the operating capacity is 44.15 million tons, a weekly increase of 10,000 tons, and the operating rate is 97.7% [1] - **Demand**: According to SMM data, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream aluminum profile leading enterprises decreased by 1.5% to 52.5% compared with last week, the operating rate of aluminum plate, strip and foil decreased by 1.06% to 69.36%, the output of aluminum plate, strip and foil decreased by 0.57 million tons to 372,470 tons, and the average operating rate of aluminum cables remained unchanged at 63.2% [1] - **Inventory**: As of June 19, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 449,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from last week; the aluminum rod inventory was 134,500 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from last week. As of June 20, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 342,900 tons, a decrease of 12,800 tons from the same period last week [1] - **Profit**: As of June 13, 2025, the weighted production cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry was about 17,000 yuan/ton, the immediate production profit was about 3,750 yuan/ton, and the marginal maximum production cost was 18,500 yuan/ton [2] Alumina - **Price**: As of the week of June 20, 2025, the main alumina contract price decreased by 0.17% to 2,890 yuan/ton. The spot prices in Shanxi, Henan, Shandong, Guizhou, and Guangxi decreased week - on - week, while the FOB price of imported alumina remained unchanged at $370/ton [3] - **Supply**: As of the week of June 20, according to阿拉丁 data, the national built - in capacity of alumina was 112.92 million tons, the operating capacity was 93.05 million tons, a weekly increase of 400,000 tons, and the operating rate was 82.4% [3] - **Cost**: As of the week of June 20, the quoted price of bauxite on the website remained unchanged at $74.5/ton. The seaborne freight dropped from $27/ton to $22/ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of June 20, 2025, the national alumina inventory was 3.84 million tons, an increase of 22,000 tons from last week. The raw material inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants was 2.826 million tons, a weekly increase of 18,000 tons; the platform and port inventory was 906,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 4,000 tons; the warehouse receipt inventory was 42,000 tons, a decrease of 37,000 tons [4] - **Profit**: As of June 20, 2025, based on imported ore at $75/ton, the full production cost of marginal high - cost enterprises was about 2,900 yuan/ton, and the production profit was about 350 yuan/ton. The production profit using domestic ore was about 300 yuan/ton. Alumina imports started to incur losses [4] Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: As of June 20, 2025, the Jiangxi Baotai quotation was 19,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton [5] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 23,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,500 tons; the in - plant inventory was 82,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,100 tons; the total inventory was 106,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 600 tons [5] Strategy - **Single - side trading**: Be neutral on aluminum and cautiously bearish on alumina [7] - **Arbitrage**: Conduct calendar spread arbitrage on aluminum, going long on AD11 and short on AL11 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing military confrontation between Iran and Israel has escalated from "remote confrontation" to "direct attacks," with both sides demonstrating strong offensive capabilities but significant defensive weaknesses, necessitating external support for both parties [2][4]. Group 1: Military Actions - Since June 13, Israel has conducted large-scale airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and military targets, resulting in significant casualties [2]. - Iran has retaliated with ballistic missiles and drones, launching approximately 100 missiles in one attack and planning to increase this number to 4,000 in future strikes [4][5]. - Both Iran and Israel have engaged in multiple rounds of airstrikes against each other's critical infrastructure, including oil production and military facilities [3][4]. Group 2: Strategic Analysis - Both Iran and Israel exhibit strong offensive capabilities; however, they have notable defensive shortcomings. Israel's air defense systems are insufficient against large-scale missile attacks, while Iran's missile capabilities pose a continuous threat [4][5]. - The tactical balance between the two nations has reached a point where their offensive capabilities are somewhat equalized, despite Iran's missile costs being significantly higher than Israel's interception costs [5]. Group 3: International Implications - The conflict has broader implications for global energy, shipping, and financial systems, potentially leading to international chain reactions [2]. - The U.S. has canceled the sixth round of nuclear negotiations with Iran, indicating a shift in diplomatic efforts due to the escalating conflict [6]. - There are indications that the U.S. may apply pressure on Iran to return to negotiations, but Iran remains firm on its nuclear rights and is unlikely to compromise easily [6][9].

Core Viewpoint - The claim that Russia's oil reserves will only last for 26 years is misleading, as it only considers a portion of the proven reserves and does not reflect the total potential available [1][4][9]. Group 1: Oil Reserves - Russia's estimated total oil reserves are approximately 950 billion tons, which is more than seven times the currently extractable reserves [3]. - The officially proven extractable oil reserves are about 130 billion tons, which, at a production rate of over 500 million tons per year, would last for 65 years, contradicting the 26-year claim [4][5]. - The 130 billion tons represent only a small fraction of the total proven reserves of 310 billion tons, with two-thirds of the reserves still unexplored [4]. Group 2: Energy Strategy - The statement regarding oil scarcity serves as a reminder for the domestic energy exploration system, urging companies to accelerate the discovery of remaining reserves [5][9]. - Russia's energy strategy extends to 2050, indicating a long-term vision that goes beyond immediate oil production concerns [5][9]. - The country possesses significant energy resources beyond oil, including 63.4 trillion cubic meters of natural gas and 2.727 billion tons of coal, which could last for over a century and 500 years, respectively [7]. Group 3: Market Implications - The narrative of an impending oil crisis is seen as a strategic move to create urgency among energy companies and the public, prompting a new wave of exploration [9][12]. - Russia aims to maintain control over its energy resources and not rely solely on oil and gas exports, indicating a broader approach to energy management [7][12]. - The situation highlights the importance of proactive resource management and the need for countries to assess their own energy sufficiency [9].

Energy - Syria's Energy Minister announced commitment to complete the natural gas pipeline project with Turkey, with supply expected to start in June [1] - Turkey's Energy Minister stated that Turkey will provide 1,000 megawatts of electricity and 2 billion cubic meters of natural gas daily to Syria [3] - Egypt is negotiating to purchase 40 to 60 liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes this year to address a worsening energy crisis [3] - Japan's government indicated that it will not seek energy conservation measures this summer [3] - Germany's Chancellor supports the ban on the Nord Stream gas pipeline to prevent a reconnection between the US and Russia [3] Steel and Agriculture - The World Steel Association projected that China's crude steel production will remain flat year-on-year at 86 million tons by April 2025 [3] - The US Department of Energy designated coal used for steelmaking as a critical material [3] - The South Korean Ministry of Finance will closely monitor the impact of US tariffs on agricultural and food exports and develop support measures [3] - The EU Parliament supports imposing high tariffs on fertilizers and agricultural products from Russia and Belarus [3] - The Russian Industrial Association warned that EU tariff measures against Russia will lead to significant increases in global food and fertilizer prices [3] - Russia will not lower the minimum price recommendations for wheat traders before the end of the export season on July 1 [3]

Group 1 - Egypt is negotiating to purchase between 40 to 60 liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers this year to address a worsening energy crisis [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic implications of the U.S. attempting to exert economic pressure on China through the Strait of Malacca, and how China's Xinjiang province successfully countered this move, ensuring the continuity of its oil supply [2]. Group 1: Strategic Importance of the Malacca Strait - The Malacca Strait is described as the world's busiest shipping route, connecting the Pacific and Indian Oceans, and is crucial for global trade, especially for oil transportation, with 80% of China's oil imports passing through this channel [6][8]. - The sovereignty of the Strait is shared among Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, with Indonesia and Malaysia opposing U.S. military control, while Singapore supports U.S. actions [8]. Group 2: Threats to Oil Transportation - The U.S. has targeted China's oil transportation routes, proposing a blockade that could lead to a severe energy crisis for China, reminiscent of past energy crises faced by the U.S. and the Soviet Union [10][12]. - Historical context is provided, highlighting how energy crises have previously led to significant economic downturns in both the U.S. and the Soviet Union [12]. Group 3: China's Response and New Transportation Routes - China has proactively sought to diversify its oil transportation routes, establishing a new oil transport line through Myanmar, although this plan faces challenges due to ongoing conflicts [16]. - The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is emphasized as a critical development, allowing China to utilize Pakistan's Gwadar Port, effectively bypassing the Malacca Strait and mitigating risks associated with piracy and blockades [17]. Group 4: Piracy and Security Concerns - The article highlights the significant threat of piracy in the Malacca Strait, with numerous incidents reported, leading to substantial economic losses globally [19]. - China's new transportation routes, including a recent one established with Kazakhstan, enhance the security of its oil supply by avoiding piracy-prone areas [22][23]. Group 5: Enhanced Energy Security - The establishment of multiple oil transport routes has increased China's energy security and independence, allowing it to effectively counter external pressures from the U.S. [23].

超级巨头"空袭"航运市场。 3月4日，集运欧线期货主力合约尾盘跳水，截至收盘，跌幅超14%，创年内最大单日跌幅。有分析认为，全球 航运巨头马士基宣布大幅下调第12周欧线现货运价对市场情绪形成利空影响，后续需要密切关注其它航运公司 的跟进情况。 宏观层面，特朗普政府的关税计划令市场担忧全球经济增速或将放缓。亚特兰大联储的GDPNow模型更新的 数据显示，美国一季度GDP年化季率的预期被大幅下调至-2.8%。 展望后市，机构分析认为，全球"贸易战"影响航运需求，叠加航司降价，3月4日盘面出现快速回落，尚未看见 这一波下行明确结束的信号。如果全球经济不能出现明显复苏，贸易需求无法有效提升，集运期货市场将维持 高波动性。 突然大跳水 3月4日，集运欧线期货主力合约（EC2506）遭遇重挫，临近尾盘大幅跳水，截至收盘，跌幅达14.51%，报 2020点。 这一跌幅创下该合约自2025年以来的最大单日跌幅纪录。市场分析称，3月4日集运欧线期货主力合约的大跌或 许与一则利空消息有关。 全球航运巨头马士基宣布下调第12周欧线运价，其中小柜（TEU）运价从3月初的1500美元/TEU降至1100美 元/TEU，降幅达26%；大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of DeepSeek technology on reducing energy consumption in AI model training, highlighting its potential to mitigate the energy crisis associated with AI advancements [1][2]. Group 1: AI Companies and Energy Consumption - Major tech companies like Google and Microsoft have reported substantial increases in greenhouse gas emissions, with Google’s emissions rising by 48% and Microsoft’s by nearly 30% since 2019, primarily due to the energy demands of AI models and data centers [1]. - Microsoft has recently canceled data center projects and terminated leases with private data center operators, signaling a strategic shift in response to an oversupply in the industry and a cooling of AI investment enthusiasm [2][3]. Group 2: DeepSeek Technology and Cost Reduction - DeepSeek reduces training costs through four main technical innovations: 1. DualPipe for optimizing pipeline parallelism, maximizing GPU utilization [4]. 2. Expert Load Balancer (EPLB) to balance workloads among experts in a mixture of experts (MoE) architecture [4]. 3. FP8 mixed precision training, which significantly lowers memory and computational resource consumption [5]. 4. Multi-Token Prediction (MTP) to enhance information utilization and reduce overall training time [5]. - DeepSeek's pre-training consumes approximately 3.16 million GPU hours, resulting in an estimated total energy consumption of about 1.9 GWh [5][6]. Group 3: Comparison with Other AI Models - In contrast, GPT-4 MoE's training consumed around 10.4 GWh, which is five times more than DeepSeek, illustrating the latter's efficiency [6][7]. - DeepSeek's training costs are reported to be only 1/10 of OpenAI's, and its operational costs are 1/30 of OpenAI's, showcasing its competitive advantage in the market [7]. Group 4: Market Impact and Competitive Dynamics - The emergence of DeepSeek has prompted AI companies to accelerate the elimination of inefficient model architectures, with Meta expressing concerns about falling behind in the AI race [9][10]. - DeepSeek's efficiency has led to significant stock declines for energy suppliers, indicating a shift in market expectations regarding AI's energy demands [11]. Group 5: Broader Applications and Social Impact - DeepSeek's technology has potential applications in various sectors, including energy optimization in chemical production, demonstrating its versatility beyond AI model training [12]. - The technology is being utilized in social initiatives, such as poverty monitoring in local governments, enhancing efficiency in identifying at-risk families [15]. Group 6: ESG Considerations - DeepSeek shows promise in contributing to environmental sustainability (E), social equity (S), and corporate governance (G), indicating its potential for broader societal benefits [14][15].