Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen carry trade is at a critical juncture, with the USD/JPY exchange rate remaining above 140 since summer 2023, but pressures from rising Japanese interest rate expectations and U.S. rate cut pressures may lead to a significant downturn in the exchange rate, potentially triggering a global asset allocation chain reaction [1]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Japan's inflation rate continues to exceed the central bank's target, with Q2 GDP annualized growth at 1%, significantly above market expectations [1]. - The U.S. labor data has been weak, coupled with calls for rate hikes from former President Trump, placing the Federal Reserve in a difficult position [1]. Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield is expected to rise significantly between 2024 and 2025, currently nearing a technical resistance level of 1.58%, which has been tested multiple times in recent months [1]. - If this resistance level is breached, yields could rise to 1.86%, and the yield spread between U.S. and Japanese 10-year bonds may narrow significantly [1]. Group 3: Yield Spread Analysis - The yield spread between U.S. and Japanese 10-year bonds has been fluctuating between 2.75% and 2.8% since September 2024, facing a critical support test [4]. - A breakdown of this support could lead to a further decline towards approximately 2.3% [4]. Group 4: Historical Correlation - Historically, the USD/JPY exchange rate has shown a strong correlation with the U.S.-Japan 10-year bond yield spread, but a recent divergence has been noted [7]. - Similar divergence occurred in summer 2024, which eventually led to a convergence of the exchange rate and yield spread [11]. Group 5: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - The USD/JPY exchange rate is approaching a critical support level at 140, and a breach could trigger large-scale unwinding of carry trades that have supported the exchange rate above this level since July 2023 [12]. - The 5-year USD/JPY cross-currency basis swap has formed a bullish "ascending triangle" pattern, indicating a decrease in the cost of hedging dollar borrowings, which adds pressure on Japanese investors holding dollar assets [11]. Group 6: Conclusion - Although the correlation between the yen's strength and the Nasdaq 100 index is weaker than last year, historical trends suggest that rising risk aversion typically accompanies yen appreciation [17]. - The market widely anticipates that the prolonged carry trade may come to an end sooner than expected, following multiple tests of key resistance levels in the interest and currency markets [17].

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar has depreciated against the Japanese yen, falling by 0.24% and dropping below the 147 mark on August 7 [1] Group 1 - The exchange rate of the US dollar to the Japanese yen has shown a notable decline, indicating potential shifts in currency market dynamics [1]

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate increased by 0.50% on August 5, reaching 147.83 [1]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，8月4日，美元兑日元站上148，日内涨0.42%。 ...

美元兑日元USD/JPY站上148，日内涨0.42%。 美元/日元 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the USD/JPY exchange rate has risen above 148, indicating a daily increase of 0.42% [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the US dollar experienced a significant decline against the Japanese yen, dropping by 2% on the day to a current rate of 147.70 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate has experienced a significant decline of 2.00%, currently standing at 147.70 [1] Group 1 - The USD/JPY pair has dropped sharply, indicating a notable movement in the currency market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate has experienced a significant decline of 2.00%, currently standing at 147.7 [1] Group 1 - The USD/JPY has dropped sharply, indicating potential volatility in the currency market [1] - The current exchange rate of 147.7 suggests a notable shift in investor sentiment towards the Japanese yen [1] - The 2.00% decrease reflects broader economic factors influencing currency valuations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar has experienced a significant decline against the Japanese yen, dropping by 2% to a current rate of 147.70 [1] Group 1 - The US dollar's depreciation indicates potential shifts in currency market dynamics [1] - The 2% drop reflects broader economic factors influencing currency valuations [1]