从四小时级别走势图来看，该货币对站稳156.50关口，同时突破1小时周期200期简单移动平均线与100 期简单移动平均线的双重压制，价格冲高至156.99后，进入高位震荡整理阶段。 汇率曾短暂回落至156.70下方，下探至自155.74低点至156.99高点上行波段的23.6%斐波那契回撤位，但 随即企稳回升，形成看涨旗形形态，形态阻力位位于156.80。 下方支撑方面，156.35关口与上述上行波段的50%斐波那契回撤位构成关键支撑区域，该位置同时靠近 100期简单移动平均线。若汇率向下跌破100期简单移动平均线支撑，或将引发空头抛售行情，下一重要 支撑位看向156.00，一旦失守，价格可能进一步下探155.50关口。 上方阻力方面，汇率短期阻力位于156.70附近，首要关键阻力位则在157.00关口。若价格站稳157.00上 方，有望进一步上探157.50目标位；若涨势延续，后续或稳步攀升至158.00关口。 日本央行在12月将关键利率从0.50%上调至0.75%，这是今年内的第二次加息举措，目的是为了抑制通 货膨胀。然而，这种谨慎的加息节奏，以及未来加息缺乏明确的时间表，令市场感到失望，从而导致日 元汇 ...

当前美国就业市场疲软态势显现，叠加多份前期消费者价格指数(CPI)报告显示关税对通胀的影响有 限，进一步强化了市场对美联储转向鸽派政策的预期，这也成为压制美元走势的重要因素。 展望后续，美元走势的关键触发点将是即将发布的第三季度GDP预估数据。投资者将密切解读该数据， 以挖掘美国当前经济运行状况的最新线索。 与此同时，日元的强势表现叠加日本财政部长片山五月的强硬表态，对美元兑日元汇率形成显著压制。 片山五月明确警告，日本将采取干预措施以遏制日元单边过度波动，她此前也曾表态："日本在应对日 元过度波动方面拥有自由行动权"，并补充称政府将"针对过度波动采取适当应对措施"。 回溯至前一交易日欧洲时段，美元兑日元已出现明显下跌。受美元表现疲软、且市场预期美联储未来某 一年降息幅度将超过其此前货币政策声明中暗示的水平等因素影响，该货币对遭遇沉重抛售压力。 周三(12月24日)，美元兑日元汇率显著下挫。尽管美国第三季度国内生产总值(GDP)报告表现优于预 期，但美元依旧承压走弱；与此同时，日元则受益于市场对日本当局可能出手干预外汇市场的担忧情 绪，走势逆势走强。 追踪美元兑六种主要货币表现的美元指数(DXY)再度回落至1 ...

上述消息发布后，韩元短线一度跳涨1.4%，升至1美元兑1460.00韩元。此前韩元周二曾贬值至1美元兑1485韩元，逼近2009年全球金融 危机以来的最低水平。 韩国当局周三(12月24日)表示，韩元过度疲软并非好事， 外汇市场将很快就会看到政府的"坚定决心" 。 此言一出，韩元汇率随即大幅走 强…… 韩国央行与韩国财政部周三共同表示，过去两周已多次召开会议讨论韩元近期走弱问题。韩国财政部同时宣布，将采取多项新税收措施以稳 定外汇市场。 但自六月底以来，韩元仍贬值逾7%，成为同期亚洲表现第二差的货币。 韩国当局亮明"坚定决心" 韩国财政部表示，将推出针对回流投资账户的新税收激励计划，以鼓励海外投资资本回流国内市场。 根据相关最新方案，韩国个人投资者在出售海外股票后，在将收益兑换成韩元并长期投资于国内股票时，将在1年内暂时减免出售海外股票 所得的所得税。 此外，韩国政府将支持大型券商迅速推出面向个人投资者的远期销售产品，因为许多散户投资者目前缺乏足够的外汇风险管理工具。韩国财 政部还表示，为了减少国内母公司从海外子公司收到的股息的双重征税，政府将把股息收入排除率从目前的95%提高到100%。 目前，韩国当局正竭 ...

日元周二表现优于其他G-10货币，此前日本财务大臣片山皋月在接受采访时表示，如果日元走势与基 本面不符，政府有"自由决定权"对日元采取大胆行动。 日元兑美元汇率一度上涨0.5%，至1美元兑156.28日元，从上周日本央行利率决议后触及的近一个月低 点反弹。与此同时，美元兑主要货币连续第二天下跌。 "市场对日本可能干预市场保持一定的谨慎，在遭到大量抛售后，日元出现了明显的反弹，"澳新银行日 本外汇和大宗商品销售主管Hiroyuki Machida表示。"不过，汇率走势还反映了美元整体走软，美债收益 率下降且主要货币兑美元上涨。" 尽管日本央行上周五将政策利率上调至三十年来的最高水平，但行长植田和男对未来加息路径没有提供 清晰指引，导致日元跌向过去曾引发央行干预的水平。最高外汇事务官员三村淳本周表示，将采取适当 措施应对外汇市场过度波动。 "虽然很难确定实际干预的具体水平，但过去经验表明，一旦日元跌破158，市场的紧张情绪就会急剧上 升，预期干预可能随时出现，"Machida说。 责任编辑：王永生 日元周二表现优于其他G-10货币，此前日本财务大臣片山皋月在接受采访时表示，如果日元走势与基 本面不符，政府有"自由 ...

继日本央行上周五宣布加息后，日本央行行长植田和男选择维持政策选择余地，并未发出过于鹰派的信 号，而非提振日元。这导致日元兑美元汇率周末一度跌至157.78，表明投资者对日本央行未能释放出更 强烈的加息信号感到失望。 周一，三村淳发表讲话后，日元兑美元汇率一度走强至157.51。由于分析师普遍预期日本央行将在下一 次加息前未来六个月左右维持利率不变，如果日元兑美元汇率继续走弱至160关口，日本财务省可能不 得不干预外汇市场。 智通财经APP获悉，在日本央行上周五的利率决议导致日元对美元走弱后，日本首席货币官员就近期外 汇市场的波动发出警告。日本最高外汇外交官三村淳(Atsushi Mimura)表示："尤其是在上周货币政策会 议之后，我们看到市场出现单向、突然的波动，我对此深感担忧，我们希望对这种过度波动采取适当的 应对措施。" ...

Core Viewpoint - Analysts suggest that if the KRW/USD exchange rate approaches the psychologically significant level of 1,500 KRW per USD, the South Korean authorities may intensify efforts to defend the won [1][4] Group 1: Currency Exchange and Government Response - The KRW has depreciated over 4% since the fourth quarter due to foreign capital outflows and increased overseas investments by residents, putting pressure on the South Korean authorities to defend the currency [4] - South Korean government officials express concerns over increasing uncertainty in the foreign exchange market, emphasizing the need to actively utilize all available tools to address the situation [4] - An emergency meeting was held on November 24 by multiple government departments, led by the Ministry of Finance, to discuss specific measures for stabilizing the market and alleviating the depreciation pressure on the won [4] Group 2: National Pension Service (NPS) Actions - The National Pension Service (NPS), South Korea's largest institutional investor with approximately $545 billion in overseas assets, has resumed selling dollars to support the won [1][4] - The NPS has a hedging cap set at about 15% of its global assets and employs various methods, including selling dollar forward contracts, to execute its hedging strategy [5] - Recent reports regarding the NPS's foreign exchange hedging appear to have created a signaling effect in the market, leading to expectations that South Korean authorities will defend the 1,500 KRW level [5]

Core Viewpoint - UBS analysis indicates that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) likely did not intervene in the foreign exchange market in October to curb the appreciation of the Swiss franc [1] Group 1: SNB's Market Activity - UBS economist Florian Germanier estimates that the SNB's trading volume in October ranged from buying up to 20 million Swiss francs (25 million USD) in foreign exchange to selling up to 50 million Swiss francs, significantly lower than the 5.1 billion Swiss francs spent in the second quarter [1] - Germanier states that there are no signs of intervention by the SNB, as the data from the balance sheet does not indicate strong actions taken by officials during this period [1] Group 2: Currency Fluctuations - In October, the Swiss franc approached a critical level of 0.92 against the euro, leading to speculation about potential currency sales by decision-makers to limit the increase, which did not occur [1] - The lack of intervention aligns with a shift from large-scale sales of the Swiss franc by the SNB to a more cautious approach [1] Group 3: Future Expectations - Germanier suggests that the SNB may have entered the market in November in response to the Swiss franc reaching a ten-year high following a trade agreement with the United States [1] - The volatility in the Swiss currency market in mid-November, when the franc reached its strongest level since the SNB removed the exchange rate cap in January 2015, may indicate potential intervention [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan can mitigate the negative impact of yen depreciation on its economy through active intervention in the foreign exchange market, as stated by Takuji Aida, a key advisor to the Japanese government [1] Group 1 - Takuji Aida emphasized that Japan has sufficient foreign exchange reserves to conduct intervention operations [1] - The intervention measures can effectively alleviate the side effects caused by the depreciation of the yen [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Finance Minister, Katsunobu Kato, issued a strong warning regarding the rapid depreciation of the yen, indicating the possibility of intervention in the foreign exchange market due to the alarming trend [1][3]. Group 1: Yen Depreciation Concerns - The yen has been depreciating rapidly against the US dollar, recently falling to around 157 yen per dollar, which is causing economic pressure in Japan, particularly affecting the costs for importers and impacting households and small businesses [3]. - Kato expressed deep concern over the "one-sided and rapid" movement of the yen against the dollar, marking this statement as the strongest warning since the depreciation began [3]. Group 2: Economic Impact and Future Outlook - The depreciation of the yen is expected to increase costs for imported goods, which could further strain the Japanese economy [3]. - There are concerns that potential travel or export restrictions from China could exacerbate the situation, leading to increased downward pressure on the yen [5]. - Factors such as weakened inbound demand and a slowing economy may prevent the Bank of Japan from considering interest rate hikes, adding to the depreciation pressure on the yen [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese authorities may be closer to intervening in the foreign exchange market than many investors realize, as the USD/JPY exchange rate approaches the 160 level [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The USD/JPY exchange rate fell below 157, reaching a new low since January [1] - The last intervention by Japanese authorities occurred in July 2024 when the exchange rate hit 160 [1] Group 2: Expert Opinions - Takuji Aida, Chief Economist at Crédit Agricole, noted that Japan's substantial foreign exchange reserves could be utilized for intervention if necessary [1] - Aida suggested that if the yen's movement becomes "dramatic," authorities might intervene before the yen reaches the 160 level [1]