Market Trend & Industry Dynamics - The US is ahead of China in tech for the first time in 30 years due to the AI revolution [1] - The AI revolution is viewed as a fourth industrial revolution [1] - The market is underestimating the demand and the cycle related to AI [1] - The current buildout is in year three of a 10-year cycle [2] Investment Opportunity & Potential Risk - Earnings numbers are underestimated by approximately 20-30% in the next one to two years [2] - Q3 earnings will validate the exploding use cases of AI [2] - The acceleration of AI use cases is expected to continue [2]

So Dan, when we're talking about Nvidia in particular, the fact that this isn't a new story, but it seems like the the crackdown on Nvidia chips is intensifying. What does this mean for the stock and its revenues out of China. >> Look, I mean, you know, this is a shot across the bow, not just Nvidia, but ultimately, you know, US tech.Look, and we've seen it, but you're talking about what could be 15 20 billion per year for Nvidia. Look, I think that bark ultimately could be worse in the bite here, but it sp ...

All right. So, I think really the weakness we saw in the markets was after that information report on Oracle um not being as profitable as a lot of analysts thought it was going to be maybe even losing some money on Nvidia chips. Does that change the momentum of the AI trade and I guess by default the market in a meaningful way.No, I think you look intermediate term, you look longterm at what's happening here with the AI revolution. It's hard to come up with a reason that you don't experience long-term grow ...

Wed Bush's Dan Ives. Good to see you. I appreciate you being here.You say that any lingering fears around AMD should now be thrown out the window. Is that right. >> Yeah.I mean, look, this for Lisa Sue and AMD, I mean, this brings them right into the AI revolution and and I think that wasn't factored into the stock. You know, it's part of why it's in the eyes of AI30. I think this is actually just the start for AMD because this next stage of the AI revolution takes hold.Open AI what they're doing here I thi ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing AI revolution is expected to significantly impact companies like AMD and Nvidia, with AMD poised to capture a larger share of the AI market than previously anticipated [1][2][5]. AMD - AMD is entering the AI revolution, which was not fully reflected in its stock price, indicating potential for growth as demand for AI technology increases [1]. - The company could capture 15-20% of the AI spending, up from an earlier estimate of 10% [2]. Nvidia - Nvidia remains the dominant player in the AI space, with a significant moat and expected to capture 90% of AI spending [2]. - The current demand-to-supply ratio for Nvidia chips is 10-12 to 1, highlighting its strong market position [2]. AI Market Outlook - The AI market is projected to reach a $5 trillion market cap, with tech stocks expected to rise as spending on AI is underestimated by the market by 30-35% [3][5]. - The current phase of AI development is likened to the tech boom of 1996, suggesting that there is still significant growth potential ahead [5][9]. Global Tech Landscape - The U.S. is currently ahead of China in technology, positioning U.S. tech companies to lead in the AI sector [9]. - Only 3% of enterprises in the U.S. have adopted AI, indicating substantial room for growth as more companies begin to invest in AI technologies [8]. Apple and Google - Apple is approaching record stock highs, with potential for further growth linked to partnerships, particularly with Google [10][12]. - The resolution of legal challenges for Google could create opportunities for collaboration that may benefit both companies [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has raised its price target for Nvidia to $210 from $200 while issuing a warning about potential "circular revenue" that could dilute Nvidia's valuation due to its dual role as both supplier and investor [1][2]. Group 1: Price Target and Ratings - Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating on Nvidia while increasing its price target to $210 [2]. - Barclays has also raised its price target for Nvidia to $240, labeling it the "most attractive name in our space" [6]. Group 2: Revenue Concerns - Goldman Sachs expressed concerns that Nvidia's strategic investments in its customers could lead to "circular revenue," necessitating additional scrutiny [2]. - Barclays challenges CEO Jensen Huang's aggressive revenue projections, known as "Jensen's Math," suggesting a more conservative revenue potential for Nvidia's AI factories [4][5]. Group 3: Market Projections - Barclays' "AI capacity tracker" estimates compute-related spending per gigawatt (GW) at $32.5 billion to $42 billion, contrasting with Huang's estimates of $40 billion to $50 billion [5]. - Despite the critiques, analysts remain generally optimistic about Nvidia's role in the AI revolution, albeit with careful examination of its financial structure and market sizing [6]. Group 4: Stock Performance - Nvidia shares fell 0.70% to $187.62 on Friday but rose by 1.16% in premarket trading on Tuesday, with a year-to-date increase of 35.65% and a 46.90% rise over the past year [7].

Core Insights - NVDA stock was picked at $8.78 in 2020, resulting in a nearly 1300% gain in that trade [1] - JD stock has shown no progress over the last decade, closing at $34.5, a level it first reached more than 10 years ago [2] Company Analysis - The Data Driven Investor focuses on uncovering alpha in the AI revolution while managing downside risk in a volatile tech landscape [3] - The Long Term Growth Portfolio of The Data Driven Investor has increased nearly 194% since 2018, driven by disciplined strategy and risk-aware execution [1][3] Analyst Background - Andres Cardenal, CFA, has over 25 years of experience in investment research and strategy development, leading The Data Driven Investor [3]

Core Insights - The Trump administration is reportedly considering a plan to pressure chip companies to increase domestic manufacturing by imposing tariffs on those that import more semiconductors than they produce in the US [1][2][3] - This initiative is seen as a response to the insufficient semiconductor capacity in the US, particularly in light of the growing demand from AI data centers [3][4] - TSMC is not prioritizing the deployment of its best technology in the US, which presents an opportunity for Intel to capitalize on this situation [4] Semiconductor Industry - The administration's potential policy could lead to significant changes in the semiconductor landscape, with chipmakers expressing reluctance to alter their current operations [2][3] - Nvidia's recent announcement of a $100 billion partnership with OpenAI raises questions about the sustainability of such large-scale vendor financing in the long term [5][6] - The competitive landscape is shifting, with a preference for American chips over competitors like Huawei, as highlighted by industry leaders [7][8][9] Investment Considerations - Nvidia's position is strong in the short term, but there are concerns about the long-term viability of its revenue targets, particularly with OpenAI aiming for a $125 billion revenue by 2029 [6][9] - The need for American technology to outpace Huawei is emphasized, as the latter has gained significant market share globally [11][12] - The investment thesis for American semiconductor companies remains robust, but there are risks associated with not participating in the growing Chinese market [12]

Market Overview - The current market is being compared to the late 1990s, raising questions about its sustainability and the remaining time in the current cycle [1][2] - There is a strong excitement surrounding the AI revolution, suggesting that this sector may still have significant growth potential [2][3] Investment Trends - A basket of unprofitable tech companies has surged by 21% since the end of July, contrasting with a 2.1% increase for profitable tech and nearly 6% for the NASDAQ 100, indicating a shift in investor risk appetite [4][5] - The market is experiencing froth, particularly in popular sectors like tech, communications, and consumer discretionary stocks, which are likely to remain favored by investors [6][7] Valuation Concerns - Current stock valuations are high, with the S&P 500 in the 95th percentile and the Buffett indicator at all-time highs, suggesting a potential overvaluation [9][10] - The focus should be on earnings growth rather than multiple expansion, as strong earnings can mitigate the impact of high valuations [10][11]

An alum of Google, Facebook and Twitter, Edwin Chen built his data labeling company, Surge, in the background of the AI revolution. Now the youngest member of the Forbes 400 is ready to step out of the shadows and make his voice heard.https://t.co/byIZITVTtI https://t.co/MRPJE1Gs6A ...