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美银:The Flow-When Jerome met Donald Show
美银· 2025-07-19 14:57
Investment Rating - The report indicates a mixed investment sentiment with a focus on equities and bonds, highlighting a potential risk-on environment as bond yields remain stable [2][12]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the US economy is showing signs of slowing down, with stock market breadth at lows and a divergence between value and growth stocks [3][25]. - There is a notable shift in investment flows, with significant inflows into bonds and materials, while healthcare and tech sectors are experiencing outflows [12][57]. - The BofA Bull & Bear Indicator has risen to 6.3, suggesting a bullish sentiment but cautioning that it may approach sell signals if certain inflow thresholds are met [15][18]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - Bitcoin leads year-to-date performance at 28.0%, followed by gold at 27.2%, while oil and the US dollar show declines of -7.4% and -9.3% respectively [2]. - The report notes that the equal-weight S&P 500 is at a 22-year low compared to the market-cap weighted index, indicating a narrowing market breadth [3]. Historical Context - The report references historical events, such as Nixon's economic policies in 1971, to draw parallels with current market conditions and potential Fed actions [4][19]. - It discusses the implications of past central bank decisions and their impact on market dynamics, particularly in relation to inflation and interest rates [19][25]. Investment Flows - Recent weekly flows show $15.7 billion into bonds, $5.8 billion into crypto, and $4.8 billion into stocks, indicating a shift in investor preferences [12][55]. - BofA private clients have allocated 63.9% of their assets to stocks, with a notable trend of inflows into utilities and materials [14][62]. Valuation and Risk Indicators - The report highlights that the current trailing P/E ratio of the "Magnificent 7" is 44x, suggesting elevated valuations compared to historical averages [25]. - The BofA Global Breadth Rule indicates that only 64% of MSCI ACWI equity indices are trading above their 50/200-day moving averages, a level below the sell signal threshold [18].
X @Raoul Pal
Raoul Pal· 2025-07-16 20:56
Investment Strategy - Asset allocation is crucial in altcoin season, as not all tokens rise simultaneously [1] - Conviction in a token requires it to consistently outperform SOL, ETH, and BTC, demonstrated by weekly charts [1] - Long-term holding of fundamentally sound assets like BTC, ETH, and SOL is more likely to accrue wealth than short-term trading [2] - Identifying tokens with growing network effects, increasing wallet numbers, transaction volume, and developer activity is key [3] - Portfolio adjustments should be considered if a token underperforms BTC, ETH, or SOL, or lacks a promising chart pattern [4] Risk Management - Excessive short-term trading can lead to capital destruction [2] - FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) during rolling pumps in altcoins can be detrimental [1] - The current macro environment presents significant risks, making careful risk-adjusted investment decisions crucial [5] Token Selection - SUI is highlighted as a potential token due to its past outperformance and network growth, but individual research is advised [1][3] - The author's portfolio includes SUI, ETH (via NFTs), XRP, DOGE, SCF, BTC, and SOL, but is subject to change [4]
VIG Vs. VOO: Best Time To Buy VIG In 10 Years
Seeking Alpha· 2025-07-16 18:57
Group 1 - Sensor Unlimited is part of the investing group Envision Early Retirement, which focuses on generating high income and growth through dynamic asset allocation [2] - The group offers two model portfolios: one for short-term survival and withdrawal, and another for aggressive long-term growth [2] - Monthly updates on holdings, tax discussions, and ticker critiques are provided to members [2] Group 2 - Sensor Unlimited has a PhD in financial economics and has spent the last decade covering the mortgage market, commercial market, and banking industry [3] - The company specializes in asset allocation and ETFs related to the overall market, bonds, banking, financial sectors, and housing markets [3]
TSLY ETF: Hold As Tesla Stock Consolidates (Technical Analysis)
Seeking Alpha· 2025-07-15 12:04
Group 1 - Sensor Unlimited is part of the investing group Envision Early Retirement, which focuses on generating high income and growth through dynamic asset allocation [2] - The group offers two model portfolios: one for short-term survival and withdrawal, and another for aggressive long-term growth [2] - Monthly updates on holdings, tax discussions, and ticker critiques are provided to members [2] Group 2 - Sensor Unlimited has a PhD in financial economics and has spent the last decade covering the mortgage market, commercial market, and banking industry [3] - The company specializes in asset allocation and ETFs related to the overall market, bonds, banking, financial sectors, and housing markets [3]
T-Mobile Q2: High Volatility Points To An Option Play (Technical Analysis)
Seeking Alpha· 2025-07-11 19:45
Group 1 - Sensor Unlimited is part of the investing group Envision Early Retirement, which focuses on generating high income and growth through dynamic asset allocation [2] - The group offers two model portfolios: one for short-term survival and withdrawal, and another for aggressive long-term growth [2] - Monthly updates on holdings, tax discussions, and ticker critiques are provided to members [2] Group 2 - Sensor Unlimited has a PhD in financial economics and has spent the last decade covering the mortgage market, commercial market, and banking industry [3] - The focus areas include asset allocation and ETFs related to the overall market, bonds, banking and financial sectors, and housing markets [3]
AT&T Vs. Verizon: I Like AT&T's Thicker Dividend Cushion
Seeking Alpha· 2025-07-11 13:57
Join for a 100% Risk-Free trial and see if our proven method can help you too. You do not need to pay for the costly lessons from the market itself.My last analysis on AT&T (NYSE: T ) was published on June 3. More specifically, that article was titled "AT&T Is A Stronger Dividend Hold Than T-Mobile US". The article focusedSensor Unlimited contributes to the investing group Envision Early Retirement which is led by Sensor Unlimited. They offer proven solutions to generate both high income and high growth wit ...
AGNC Investment: 2 Reasons To Bet Against Wall Street
Seeking Alpha· 2025-07-08 18:44
Join for a 100% Risk-Free trial and see if our proven method can help you too. You do not need to pay for the costly lessons from the market itself.Sensor Unlimited contributes to the investing group Envision Early Retirement which is led by Sensor Unlimited. They offer proven solutions to generate both high income and high growth with isolated risks through dynamic asset allocation. Features include: two model portfolios - one for short-term survival/withdrawal and one for aggressive long-term growth, dire ...
X @Ansem
Ansem 🧸💸· 2025-07-04 12:28
Investment Strategy - Portfolio allocation: 50% stocks and 50% crypto assets [1] - Asset limit: Maximum of 10 assets in the portfolio [1] - Investment horizon: 10 years with no selling allowed until year 5 [1] - Goal: Outperform the average S&P returns by 10%+ each year [1] Asset Selection Considerations - The strategy requires careful selection of stocks and crypto assets to achieve the target outperformance [1] - The long-term investment horizon necessitates assets with strong growth potential [1] - The inability to sell assets for the first 5 years demands a focus on assets with long-term viability [1]
X @Ansem
Ansem 🧸💸· 2025-07-04 12:28
Portfolio Allocation Strategy - The portfolio should consist of 50% stocks and 50% crypto assets [1] - The portfolio is limited to a maximum of 10 assets [1] Investment Goal - The primary goal is to outperform the average S&P returns by 10%+ annually over the next 10 years [1] Asset Selection - The report requires the selection of specific assets (stocks and crypto) [1] - Justification for the asset selection is needed [1]
Medical Properties Trust: A Bull Trap
Seeking Alpha· 2025-06-26 08:21
Join for a 100% Risk-Free trial and see if our proven method can help you too. You do not need to pay for the costly lessons from the market itself.Sensor Unlimited contributes to the investing group Envision Early Retirement which is led by Sensor Unlimited. They offer proven solutions to generate both high income and high growth with isolated risks through dynamic asset allocation. Features include: two model portfolios - one for short-term survival/withdrawal and one for aggressive long-term growth, dire ...