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Tesla(TSLA) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
2026-01-28 23:30
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, automotive margins improved sequentially from 15.4% to 17.9%, despite a 16% decrease in deliveries [20] - Total gross margin ended the quarter at over 20.1%, a level not achieved in the last two years [22] - Net income was negatively impacted by mark-to-market charges on Bitcoin holdings, which depreciated by 23% compared to the last quarter [23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Automotive gross profit remained flat sequentially despite lower deliveries, primarily due to a favorable regional mix with more deliveries in APAC and EMEA [20] - Energy revenue reached nearly $12.8 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 26.6%, driven by high deployments in all regions [21] - Services and others margin declined from 10.5% to 8.8%, mainly due to higher employee-related costs in service centers [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Record deliveries were achieved in smaller countries like Malaysia, Norway, Poland, Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan, contributing to a larger backlog than in recent years [19] - FSD adoption improved, reaching nearly 1.1 million paid customers globally, with about 70% being upfront purchases [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is making significant investments in AI chips, battery production, and solar cell manufacturing, indicating a strategic shift towards autonomy and robotics [4][5] - The production of Model S and X will be phased out to focus on the development of Optimus robots, with a long-term goal of producing 1 million units annually [6][14] - The company aims to achieve 100 gigawatts a year of solar cell production, integrating across the entire supply chain [13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the future, highlighting the potential for universal high income driven by advancements in AI and robotics [2][3] - The company anticipates significant growth in energy and autonomous vehicle markets, despite challenges such as margin compression from increased competition and policy uncertainties [21][25] - Management emphasized the importance of capital efficiency in their investment strategy, with a projected CapEx exceeding $20 billion for the year [24][25] Other Important Information - The company is transitioning to a subscription-based model for FSD, which may impact automotive margins in the short term [20] - Operating expenses increased due to higher stock-based compensation and investments in AI-related initiatives [23] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is Tesla's view on the global car sales number in relation to its Robotaxi ambition? - Tesla believes that autonomy and Cybercab will significantly change the global market size and mix, with expectations of substantial growth in the autonomous segment [27][28] Question: Are there plans to launch new models for different price segments? - Tesla has launched its least expensive models recently and continues to expand globally, aiming to provide a premium ride experience through Cybercab [32][33] Question: What is the current bottleneck for increasing Robotaxi deployment? - The company is focused on scaling the Robotaxi service while learning from the fleet's performance, with unsupervised service already initiated in Austin [40][41] Question: What are the constraints on memory procurement? - Tesla's AI is designed to be memory efficient, and while there are near-term constraints, the company has solutions for scaling over the next three years [89][90]
Is Tesla a Buy After Its Lackluster 2025?
Yahoo Finance· 2026-01-28 17:25
Core Insights - Tesla experienced a challenging year in 2025, with a decline in electric vehicle sales and slower share price growth compared to previous years [1] - Despite the difficulties, CEO Elon Musk has a track record of achieving ambitious goals, making it risky to bet against the company [1] Group 1: Self-Driving Technology - Tesla's robotaxis are now operational in Austin, Texas, with human safety monitors following in separate vehicles [2] - The autonomous taxi market is expanding, with Tesla competing against Alphabet's Waymo, which has a larger operational scale [3] - The global robotaxi fleet is projected to exceed 900,000 vehicles and reach a market value of approximately $100 billion by 2035 [3] Group 2: Optimus Robots - Tesla's humanoid robots, known as Optimus, are expected to be available for public sale by the end of 2027, with initial use in factories this year [4] - Musk claims that Optimus robots could potentially add $20 trillion to Tesla's valuation, although this figure may be overly optimistic [5] - The production of both robotaxis and Optimus robots is anticipated to be "agonizingly slow" initially, with expectations of ramping up production later [6]
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) Quarterly Earnings Preview
Financial Modeling Prep· 2026-01-28 03:00
Core Insights - Tesla Inc is a leading electric vehicle and clean energy company, preparing to release its quarterly earnings on January 28, 2026, with an estimated EPS of $0.45 and projected revenue of approximately $24.76 billion [1][6] Group 1: Financial Performance - Analysts from Wedbush project Tesla's revenue for the fourth quarter to be around $25 billion, with automotive revenue contributing approximately $18 billion, driven by strong electric vehicle deliveries and energy generation [3] - Tesla's shares are currently trading at $434, reflecting an increase of over 9% in the past year [3] - The company has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 264, indicating a high valuation by investors [4] - The price-to-sales ratio stands at about 15, suggesting the market values Tesla at 15 times its sales [4] - Tesla's debt-to-equity ratio is about 0.17, indicating a relatively low level of debt compared to its equity [5] - The current ratio is approximately 2.07, suggesting good short-term financial health [5] Group 2: Business Strategy and Market Position - Tesla is facing challenges in maintaining its previous car sales momentum but is expanding its energy business and focusing on artificial intelligence [2] - Key highlights in the upcoming earnings report include advancements in autonomous driving and robotics, with demand for these technologies stabilizing [2] - Wedbush has reaffirmed its 'Outperform' rating for Tesla, setting a 12-month price target of $600 [2][6]
Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) Analysts Show Optimism Despite Challenges
Financial Modeling Prep· 2026-01-28 02:00
Core Viewpoint - Tesla, Inc. is a leading electric vehicle manufacturer with a focus on sustainable energy and innovative technology, facing competition from traditional automakers and emerging electric vehicle companies [1] Group 1: Stock Performance and Analyst Sentiment - Analysts have shown increasing optimism about Tesla's stock, with the average price target rising to $461.75, down from $474.67 in the previous quarter but up from $412.40 last year [2] - Wedbush has reiterated an 'Outperform' rating for Tesla, setting a 12-month price target of $600, driven by improving delivery trends and the company's AI transformation [3] - Despite challenges, Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan has set a high price target of $960 for Tesla, indicating strong future growth potential [4][6] Group 2: Financial Expectations - Analysts anticipate Tesla's fourth quarter 2025 earnings report to show earnings per share (EPS) of 43 cents and sales of $24.6 billion, a decrease from the previous year's EPS of 73 cents and sales of $25.7 billion [5] - The positive outlook from analysts suggests confidence in Tesla's future performance despite projected declines in EPS and sales [6] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Tesla is strategically positioning itself to revolutionize the Transport-As-A-Service (TAAS) industry by assembling components for an "on-demand" Robotaxi service, including Supercharging, car rental, insurance, and Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology [4]
Tesla or Ford: Which Stock is Worth Buying Ahead of Q4 Earnings?
ZACKS· 2026-01-27 16:20
Core Insights - Investors are closely monitoring Tesla and Ford as they approach their fourth-quarter 2025 earnings reports, with Tesla set to report tomorrow and Ford on February 10 [1] Tesla (TSLA) Summary - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Tesla's Q4 earnings is 45 cents per share and $25.1 billion in revenue, with a history of missing EPS estimates three out of the last four quarters, averaging an 11.1% negative surprise [2] - Tesla's Q4 2025 vehicle sales fell 16% year-over-year to 418,227 units, missing expectations due to the withdrawal of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit and increased competition from Chinese EV manufacturers [6][7] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Tesla's 2026 EPS has declined by 10 cents over the past 30 days, indicating rising analyst pessimism [14] - Tesla's valuation remains high at a forward sales multiple of 13.67x, reflecting a stretched valuation compared to Ford [15] Ford (F) Summary - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ford's Q4 earnings is 17 cents per share and $41 billion in automotive revenues, with a solid earnings surprise history, beating estimates in the past four quarters [3] - Ford's Q4 2025 sales increased by 2.7% to over 545,200 vehicles, with hybrid sales growing 17.6% year-over-year, driven by strong demand [8] - Ford expects approximately $19.5 billion in special charges related to restructuring its U.S. EV strategy, with $5.5 billion impacting cash flows through 2026 and 2027 [8][10] - Ford's 2026 EPS estimate has risen by 6 cents over the past week to $1.54, implying a 36% growth from projected 2025 levels [11] - Ford's valuation is significantly cheaper at 0.31x forward sales, making it a more attractive investment option compared to Tesla [15] Comparative Analysis - The risk-reward setup appears to favor Ford, with strong earnings momentum and improving sales trends, despite the impact of restructuring charges on cash flows [17] - Tesla faces challenges from slowing deliveries and competition, with its long-term initiatives in autonomy and AI unlikely to generate significant revenue in the near term [18]
Uber Technologies (UBER) was the Worst Performer: NewBridge Large Cap Growth Equity
Yahoo Finance· 2026-01-27 13:22
Core Insights - NewBridge Asset Management's Q4 2025 letter indicates that equity markets maintained upward momentum due to resilient economic growth and solid corporate returns, with large-cap growth outperforming in this quarter [1] - The NewBridge Large Cap Growth Strategy generated positive returns but lagged behind the Russell 1000® Growth Index, with most portfolio companies exceeding expectations, although some faced declines [1] - The contrasting performance of Uber Technologies, Inc. and Tesla, Inc. was highlighted as a significant challenge for the portfolio, with Uber's stock declining while Tesla's surged [1][3] Company Performance - Uber Technologies, Inc. shares traded between $60.63 and $101.99 over the past 52 weeks, closing at $81.98 on January 26, 2026, with a one-month return of 0.59% and a three-month loss of 14.98% [2] - Uber's market capitalization stands at $170.963 billion, indicating its substantial presence in the market [2] Investment Analysis - The portfolio's significant position in Uber was contrasted with the absence of Tesla, which saw a stock increase of over 60% while Uber's stock fell nearly 19% during the quarter [3] - The perceived competition from Tesla's autonomous vehicle initiatives has negatively impacted Uber, particularly following Waymo's decision not to partner with Uber in Miami for 2026 [3] - Despite current challenges, the fundamentals of Uber are considered attractive, with the belief that it will remain a key player in the autonomous vehicle market due to its extensive network platform [3]
Traton and PlusAI Expand Partnership to Accelerate Launch of Autonomous Trucks
WSJ· 2026-01-26 12:30
EXCLUSIVE: Traton and PlusAI agreed to expand their partnership as they seek to accelerate the deployment of autonomous trucks in the U.S. and Europe. ...
机器人动态:硅谷 RoboFest 峰会要点- 自动驾驶迎来 “AlphaGo 时刻”-Rowdy Robot-RoboFest Silicon Valley Takeaways, 'AlphaGo' Moment for AVs
2026-01-26 02:49
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focused on advancements in the robotics and autonomous vehicle (AV) sectors, particularly in North America, highlighting the importance of AI-enabled consumer electronics manufacturing for competitiveness in commercial, industrial, and military applications [1][2]. Core Insights - **RoboFest Event**: The event showcased various firms pushing the boundaries of physical AI, emphasizing the need for the U.S. to lead in AI-enabled manufacturing [1]. - **Autonomous Construction**: Bedrock Robotics highlighted the significance of autonomous construction equipment, suggesting that human progress will depend on the ability to move earth and build structures efficiently [4]. - **Cobot Technology**: The potential of collaborative robots (cobots) was discussed, focusing on their ability to solve simple problems and gather data quickly [4]. - **Joby Aviation**: The company demonstrated pilotless electronic vertical take-off and landing flights, indicating advancements in urban air mobility [4]. - **Warehouse Automation**: Mytra's technology for warehouse automation was noted as a high ROI opportunity, capable of lifting heavy pallets efficiently [4]. - **Consumer AI**: Wayve's approach to consumer-owned AI-enabled autonomy was highlighted, with legacy OEMs taking notice of its potential [4]. - **Tesla's Robotaxi**: Tesla's decision to operate robotaxis without a driver, relying solely on cameras, was described as an 'AlphaGo moment' for autonomy, indicating a significant shift in the industry [4][5]. Market Dynamics - **Insurance Industry Impact**: The move by Lemonade AV insurance to price autonomous driving risk similarly to human driving risk could lead to a significant increase in AV adoption, as insurance companies base pricing on data rather than emotions [5]. - **Hyundai's Stock Performance**: Hyundai's shares increased by 70% year-to-date, driven by excitement around humanoid robotics, showcasing the untapped potential in unique datasets and advanced manufacturing beyond traditional automotive applications [5]. Additional Insights - **Investment Opportunities**: The discussions indicated a growing interest in robotics and autonomous technologies, suggesting potential investment opportunities in companies that are innovating in these areas [4][5]. - **Global Movement**: The RoboFest event is part of a broader global movement, with future stops planned in Israel, Los Angeles, Austin, and Miami, indicating the international interest in robotics [2]. Conclusion - The conference highlighted the transformative potential of robotics and autonomous vehicles, with significant implications for various industries, including construction, transportation, and insurance. The advancements in technology and shifts in market dynamics present both opportunities and challenges for investors and companies in these sectors.
Automotive Stocks Worth Watching – January 23rd
Defense World· 2026-01-25 06:02
Group 1: Automotive Stocks Overview - O'Reilly Automotive, AutoZone, Rivian Automotive, SoundHound AI, and Monolithic Power Systems are highlighted as key automotive stocks to watch, based on their high trading volume recently [2] - Automotive stocks represent companies involved in the design, manufacturing, selling, or servicing of motor vehicles and related parts, technologies, and services, providing investors exposure to economic cycles and trends in the auto industry [2] Group 2: Company Profiles - O'Reilly Automotive operates as a retailer and supplier of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, and accessories across the United States, Puerto Rico, and Mexico, offering a wide range of products including new and remanufactured hard parts and maintenance items [3] - AutoZone retails and distributes automotive replacement parts and accessories in the United States, Mexico, and Brazil, providing products for various vehicle types including cars, SUVs, and light trucks [4] - Rivian Automotive designs, develops, manufactures, and sells electric vehicles and accessories, featuring consumer vehicles like the R1T pickup truck and R1S SUV [4] - SoundHound AI develops voice artificial intelligence solutions for various industries, including automotive, enabling businesses to create high-quality conversational experiences through its Houndify platform and other AI products [5] - Monolithic Power Systems specializes in semiconductor-based power electronics solutions for multiple markets, including automotive, providing integrated circuits for voltage conversion and control in various electronic systems [7]
Tesla China FSD Timeline Gets Pushback After Musk Davos Comments - Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA)
Benzinga· 2026-01-24 18:31
Company Insights - Tesla's CEO Elon Musk anticipates that China will soon approve the company's Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, with a potential timeline for approval as early as next month [1][2] - Currently, Tesla offers a basic driver-assistance system in China, which lacks several features available in the U.S. version of FSD [3] - The company is actively working to expand its advanced driver-assistance features in China, although full regulatory clearance is still pending [4] Industry Context - The autonomous driving sector in China is highly competitive, with domestic companies rapidly developing similar technologies [5] - Tesla's stock (TSLA) has seen an increase of over 10% in the past year, indicating positive investor sentiment [5]