Core Thesis - Paychex, Inc. is viewed as a compelling investment opportunity due to its strong recurring revenue model, high client retention, and potential for steady dividend returns, particularly appealing to income and long-term growth investors [4]. Company Overview - Paychex, Inc. is a leading provider of payroll, human resources, and benefits outsourcing services to over 740,000 small and medium-sized businesses in the U.S. [2] - The company generates revenue primarily through subscription fees and payroll processing charges, creating a highly predictable and recurring revenue base [2]. Financial Performance - Paychex has achieved 5- and 10-year dividend CAGRs above 10%, offering a reliable yield of 3.5% with a payout ratio of 92% [3]. - The company's financial profile supports income-oriented investors, benefiting from float income by temporarily holding client funds, which allows it to capitalize on higher interest rates [3]. Valuation and Market Position - The stock was trading at $124.37 with a trailing P/E of 27.67 and a forward P/E of 22.78, indicating reasonable valuation reflecting stability and modest growth [1][4]. - Paychex's business model is characterized by strong client retention, making relationships "sticky" over the long term, which enhances its resilience through economic cycles [2][3]. Investment Appeal - The combination of defensibility, cash generation, and predictable profitability positions Paychex as an attractive opportunity in the payroll and HR outsourcing space [4]. - The company remains resilient despite a 16.54% stock price depreciation since previous coverage, maintaining strong recurring revenue and high margins [5].

Core Thesis - Brown-Forman Corporation is viewed as a potential investment opportunity due to its historically low valuation and stable fundamentals despite negative market sentiment [1][3][4] Valuation and Market Perception - The company's shares were trading at $27.64 as of September 24th, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 15.44 and 16.86 respectively [1] - Over the past decade, Brown-Forman's market perception has shifted from being a high-quality company trading above 30x earnings to a more skeptical view, now trading at roughly 15x earnings [2][3] - The current valuation represents one of the lowest multiples for the company in the past decade, indicating a potential opportunity to invest at an attractive price point [3] Fundamentals and Consumer Behavior - Despite external challenges such as tariffs and changing consumer habits, the company's fundamentals remain stable with a consistent earnings stream and a loyal consumer base [3][4] - The underlying consumption of alcohol is expected to remain steady, supporting the company's cash flows and long-term viability [3] Investment Outlook - For investors willing to overlook short-term pessimism, Brown-Forman presents a chance to invest in a stable, cash-generative company at a historically discounted valuation [4] - Continuous monitoring of operational performance and shifts in market perception is recommended to identify potential upside [4] - Previous analyses highlighted the company's strong brands and resilient net income growth, reinforcing the bullish thesis despite a 23% depreciation in stock value since coverage [5]

Core Thesis - Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) is positioned as a strong investment opportunity due to its focus on essential, e-commerce-resistant tenants and a stable cash flow model [2][6]. Company Overview - Agree Realty Corporation is a U.S.-based real estate investment trust (REIT) specializing in retail properties leased to essential tenants such as Walmart and CVS, owning over 2,000 properties across the U.S. [2] - The company has transformed from a $300 million microcap to a $7.9 billion market cap REIT, maintaining low leverage and strong tenant relationships [4]. Financial Performance - Over the past three years, Agree has achieved a 20% annual revenue growth and a 7.7% growth in funds from operations (FFO) per share, with the stock trading slightly below prior highs [3]. - The company has a consistent dividend track record, with monthly distributions and a five- and ten-year growth rate around 5.3–5.4%, providing a reliable income stream [5]. Growth Strategy - Agree Realty drives expansion through three key platforms: development of new stores for creditworthy tenants, acquisitions of high-quality existing properties, and a Direct Funding Platform for retail project construction [3]. - The company benefits from high-quality, recession-resistant tenants and geographically diversified property holdings, minimizing operational risk through net leases [5]. Risk Management - While risks such as tenant defaults and interest rate fluctuations exist, Agree's conservative financial policies and data-driven acquisition strategy help mitigate these exposures [6].

Core Thesis - Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) is experiencing strong operational resilience and growth potential, supported by record revenue and robust earnings [2][5][6] Financial Performance - Delta reported record revenue of $15.5 billion for the June quarter, a 1% increase year-over-year, driven by a 4% capacity increase [2] - Adjusted EPS was $2.10, slightly above analyst estimates, while GAAP EPS was $3.27, indicating strong margins [2] - Operating margins were solid at 13.2% on a non-GAAP basis, despite challenges from fuel and labor costs [3] Guidance and Projections - The company restored full-year EPS guidance to a range of $5.25–$6.25 and raised free cash flow expectations to $3–$4 billion [3] - For Q3, revenue growth is projected at 0–4% with EPS guidance of $1.25–$1.75, indicating steady operational momentum [3] Market Reaction - Following the strong results, DAL shares climbed 10–12%, making it one of the top performers on the S&P 500 [4] - The stock's breakout above $51 has created near-term trading opportunities, with potential upside toward $60 if trading volume remains supportive [4] Long-term Outlook - For long-term investors, pullbacks to $45–$47 offer an attractive free cash flow yield near 8% and a forward dividend yield exceeding 2% [4] - Delta's focus on premium products and operational efficiency supports sustained upside in the stock [5][6]

Core Thesis - Interparfums, Inc. (IPAR) is positioned as a strong player in the prestige perfume and cosmetics market, leveraging its licensing model and global distribution to drive recurring revenue and growth [1][5]. Company Overview - Interparfums, Inc. is a global creator and distributor of prestige perfumes and cosmetics, partnering with leading fashion and lifestyle brands [2]. - The company operates through various channels including department stores, specialty shops, and duty-free outlets, combining product sales and fragrance licensing agreements [2]. Business Model - The licensing portfolio includes long-term agreements with brands such as Montblanc, Coach, Jimmy Choo, and GUESS, providing stable revenue streams [2]. - The distribution networks across wholesale, retail, and travel retail channels enhance global reach and diversify exposure across Europe, the U.S., and emerging markets [3]. Competitive Advantages - Interparfums' scalable operations allow for the application of product development and marketing expertise across multiple brands, reducing reliance on any single partner [3]. - The company's focus on high-end, aspirational products, along with strong partnerships and marketing excellence, differentiates it in the market [3][4]. Financial Performance - As of September 18th, IPAR's share was trading at $104.17, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 20.75 and 18.45 respectively [1]. Strategic Positioning - Interparfums transforms fashion brands into lifestyle experiences, creating emotional connections through scent and delivering affordable luxury to a global audience [4]. - The combination of strategic partnerships, recurring revenue, and global scale positions IPAR as a builder of global brands and a consistent performer in the consumer beauty sector [4].

Core Viewpoint - Pool Corp. is showing signs of a potential turnaround in revenue growth after a challenging period, influenced by favorable market conditions such as decreasing interest rates and high retirement account values [2][4][6]. Company Overview - Pool Corp., established in 1980, has grown to be the largest distributor of pool products in the U.S., generating $5.3 billion in annual revenues [2]. - Historically, about 15% of its revenues come from new pool construction, which has faced challenges recently [2]. Recent Performance - After nine consecutive quarters of negative revenue growth, Pool Corp. reported a 0.8% growth in quarterly revenues in Q2 2025, indicating a possible recovery [2][4]. Influencing Factors - The growth of Pool Corp. is affected by new home construction, interest rates, and retirement account values [3]. - New pool construction typically lags behind new home construction by 2 to 3 years, suggesting a delayed impact on Pool Corp.'s revenues [3]. Market Conditions - With interest rates decreasing and the market reaching all-time highs, there is optimism for a new growth phase for Pool Corp. if these conditions lead to increased new pool construction [4][6]. - The recent positive revenue growth, although modest, suggests that the company may be emerging from a difficult period [4]. Investment Sentiment - The stock has appreciated by 7.0% since previous bullish coverage, reflecting confidence in the company's consistency and financial rigor [5]. - Pool Corp. is not among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds, with 44 hedge fund portfolios holding POOL at the end of Q2, up from 39 in the previous quarter [7].

Core Thesis - Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) is viewed positively due to its unique business model and growth potential, with shares trading at $16.71 as of September 17th, and a trailing P/E of 222.12 and forward P/E of 18.15 [1][2] Business Model - GO operates as an extreme-value grocery retailer with 533 stores across 17 states, primarily on the West Coast, utilizing a "treasure hunt" model similar to TJ Maxx, offering branded consumables and fresh items at significant discounts [2] - The inventory is sourced from manufacturer overruns and closeouts, creating a sense of urgency for customers and encouraging repeat visits [2] - Stores are managed by independent operators (IOs), which aligns incentives, reduces corporate overhead, and ensures strong unit economics [2] Operational Challenges and Leadership Changes - Despite having a competitive advantage in supplier relationships and logistics, GO has encountered operational issues, including a failed ERP rollout, high shrinkage rates, and underperformance in new markets [3] - These challenges have led to leadership changes and a strategic shift towards disciplined expansion and system stabilization [3] - Early indicators under new CEO Jason Potter show positive progress, with raised guidance and reduced restructuring costs [3] Growth and Financial Outlook - The company aims to open 30–35 net new stores annually, with expected store-level returns exceeding 20% by year four, potentially reaching 30% as execution improves [4] - GO's normalized free cash flow is projected to be between $140 million and $170 million, with an additional potential of $100 million FCF from 150 new stores, indicating attractive long-term returns [4] - Valuation appears reasonable at a 20x forward P/E and 12–13x FY25 adjusted EBITDA, considering growth opportunities and margin recovery potential [4] Risks and Resilience - Risks include execution challenges, competition from Aldi and Lidl, and difficulties in recruiting independent operators, but improved systems and inventory visibility could lead to significant upside [5] - GO has a history of resilience during economic downturns and potential for capital allocation through buybacks and M&A, presenting a favorable risk/reward scenario [5] - The bullish thesis remains intact, emphasizing leadership changes and ERP stabilization as key factors for future growth [6]

Group 1: L3Harris Technologies, Inc. Overview - L3Harris Technologies, Inc. shares were trading at $281.86 as of September 17th, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 31.49 and 22.83 respectively [1] - The company is highlighted for its diversified segments, strong free cash flow, and visible backlog, making it an attractive investment opportunity [5] Group 2: Leidos (LDOS) Financial Performance - Leidos has a market capitalization of approximately $52–53 billion and a backlog of $35.4 billion, indicating a strong investment profile supported by scale and cash flow generation [2] - In Q2 2025, Leidos reported revenue of around $5.4 billion, reflecting 6% organic growth, with operating margins of 10–12% and net margins near 8% [2] - Free cash flow is expected to reach $3 billion in FY26, showcasing the company's robust internal capital generation [2] Group 3: Valuation Metrics and Market Position - Leidos' valuation metrics include an EV/Sales of 2.5–2.7×, EV/EBITDA of 15–16×, and a forward P/E of approximately 25×, suggesting balanced pricing relative to growth and profitability [3] - The company's portfolio combines scale with a highly visible backlog, providing reliable revenue streams and making it a stable core holding within the aerospace and defense sector [3] - While 76% of sales are U.S.-dependent, this exposure is mitigated by long-term government and defense programs, creating durable relationships and recurring contracts [3] Group 4: Investment Appeal - Leidos' combination of diversified high-tech segments, predictable cash flow, and strong backlog positions it as a central anchor for investors seeking stable, mid-to-long-term exposure to aerospace and defense [4] - The company's financial strength and operational scale provide resilience against market volatility, while forward-looking cash flow generation offers flexibility for strategic initiatives or shareholder returns [4]

Core Thesis - Fiserv, Inc. is positioned for growth with a focus on its Clover platform, which integrates payments, software, and cash management for small businesses, despite recent stock price declines due to slower GPV growth [2][3][4] Company Overview - Fiserv serves 10,000 financial institutions across over 100 countries, including 3,000 U.S. banks, and is a leader in financial technology [2] - The company has achieved 40 consecutive years of double-digit EPS growth, indicating strong financial performance [2] Clover Platform - Clover's long-term value is driven by revenue growth from merchant signups, hardware sales, and higher-margin value-added services (VAS), rather than just gross payment volume (GPV) [3] - Clover remains underpenetrated in the U.S. market with less than 3% market share and under 10% VAS penetration domestically [3] Growth Strategy - Fiserv aims to expand into new verticals such as hospitality and healthcare, as well as international markets like Brazil, Mexico, and Europe, supporting a revenue target of $3.5 billion for 2025 and $4.5 billion for 2026 [4] - Management has accelerated buybacks to 130% of free cash flow at historically low valuations, suggesting potential for significant returns if free cash flow growth continues [4] Market Performance - Despite beating Q1 and Q2 earnings estimates, Fiserv's stock experienced a sharp decline of up to 23% due to investor concerns over slower Clover GPV growth [4] - The stock price was trading at $132.75 as of September 16th, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 22.20 and 11.20 respectively [1][2] Historical Context - Previous bullish theses on Fiserv highlighted its strong fundamentals and the value-enhancing First Data acquisition, although the stock has depreciated approximately 34.39% since then [5]

Core Thesis - International General Insurance Holdings Ltd. (IGIC) is viewed positively by investors, with a current share price of $24.15 and trailing and forward P/E ratios of 8.66 and 7.74 respectively, indicating potential undervaluation [1] Financial Performance - IGIC experienced a miss in Q1 with declines in Return on Equity (ROE) and combined ratio, but management anticipates normalization by year-end, suggesting that current issues are largely one-off [2] - The company has historically delivered a tangible book value (TBV) CAGR in the high teens over the past decade, reflecting consistent performance and disciplined capital management [2] Capital Management - Recent share repurchases and special dividend payouts demonstrate management's commitment to returning capital to shareholders, with potential for further distributions in the future [3] - IGIC's current price-to-book ratio of 1.6x indicates it is undervalued compared to peers with similar ROE and growth profiles [4] Market Position - IGIC specializes in the Middle East market, which provides a unique niche and enhances its appeal for private investors despite a low-float, small-cap structure that limits institutional participation [3] - The company's focus on specialty insurance, which constitutes approximately 80-85% of its portfolio, supports higher valuation potential compared to traditional reinsurers [3] Valuation Outlook - A fair value target of around $34 per share by year-end is considered reasonable, with upside potential as the market recognizes the company's operational resilience and niche specialization [4] - The stock has appreciated approximately 32% since previous coverage, maintaining robust free cash flow and capital discipline, reinforcing the bullish thesis [5]