Economic Data Overview - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.0% in September, slightly up from 2.9% in August but below the expected 3.1% [2] - Monthly price growth was 0.3%, a deceleration from the 0.4% increase in August and below the projected 0.4% [2] - Core inflation, excluding food and energy, cooled to 3.0% in September, down from 3.1% in August and below the expected 3.1% [2] Inflation Drivers - The primary contributor to the CPI increase in September was higher gas prices, while food, shelter, airline fares, recreation, household furnishings, and apparel also saw price increases [3] - Conversely, prices for motor vehicle insurance, used cars, and communication costs declined [3] Consumer Sentiment - The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell nearly 3% to 53.6 in October, below the forecast of 55.0, marking the lowest level since May [5] - The decline in sentiment was attributed to ongoing inflation concerns, with younger consumers showing improved sentiment but older demographics experiencing noticeable drops [6] Housing Market Insights - Existing home sales rose 1.5% in September, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million units, aligning with expectations [8] - The median price for existing homes decreased by 1.7% from August, marking the lowest level in five months, although it was up 2.1% year-over-year [9] Market Reactions - The S&P 500 index briefly crossed above 6,800 for the first time, finishing the week with a 1.9% gain [11] - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 97% likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting [12] Upcoming Economic Outlook - The economic outlook remains complex due to the ongoing government shutdown, with private and regional reports expected to provide insights into economic activity [13] - Attention will be focused on the Federal Reserve meeting, which will influence market expectations, alongside housing market reports and manufacturing sector data [14]

Economic Indicators - The September US CPI report showed a monthly increase of +0.3% and a yearly increase of +3.0%, which was slightly below market expectations of +0.4% m/m and +3.1% y/y [2] - The core CPI for September also rose by +0.2% m/m and +3.0% y/y, again slightly weaker than the expected +0.3% m/m and +3.1% y/y [2] - The final-August University of Michigan US consumer sentiment index fell by -1.4 points to 53.6, weaker than the expected drop to 54.5 [3] Market Reactions - The dollar index ended the day little changed, influenced by the weaker-than-expected CPI report and a -0.6 basis point decline in the US 10-year T-note yield [1] - The markets are pricing in a 97% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on October 28-29 due to the ongoing US government shutdown [4] Eurozone Indicators - The preliminary-October HCOB Eurozone manufacturing PMI rose by +0.2 points to 50.0, exceeding expectations for no change at 49.8 [5] - The preliminary-October HCOB Eurozone services PMI increased by +1.3 points to 52.6, stronger than the anticipated decline to 51.2 [5]

Core Insights - Americans' views on the U.S. economy have deteriorated to their lowest level in months, primarily due to rising prices and inflation concerns [1][5] Consumer Sentiment - Consumer sentiment decreased from a preliminary reading of 55.1 to 53.6 in October, marking the lowest reading since May and falling below Wall Street's expectations [2][3] - The sentiment regarding current economic conditions dropped from 60.4 in September to 58.6 in October, the lowest since August 2022 [3] Inflation Expectations - Americans expect prices to increase by 3.9% over the next five to ten years, up from a 3.7% forecast in September, and anticipate a 4.6% rise over the next year, slightly down from 4.7% [3] Price Increases - The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 3% increase in prices from September, with gas prices rising by 4.1%, the largest monthly increase among tracked items [4] Economic Optimism - The decline in economic optimism is attributed to consumer frustration with persistent high prices, with about half of respondents indicating their personal finances have worsened [5] - There is a perception of few material changes in economic circumstances from September to October, with inflation remaining a primary concern [5] Labor Market Concerns - Economic confidence has declined, with only 27% of consumers stating that jobs are "plentiful," the lowest since February 2021 [7] - The labor market appears to have worsened, with estimates suggesting only 17,000 jobs were added in September, and a reported decrease of 32,000 in private-sector payrolls [8] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by a quarter-point to between 3.75% and 4% in its upcoming meeting on October 29 [6]

We have some breaking economic data I see rolling across my ticker right now, University of Michigan, the final reading for October. Consumer sentiment falls to 53.6%. The estimate was for 54.5%.We have we have Michael McKee here with us on set, Bloomberg's international policy and economics Correspondent. So is this a case where above 50 is expansion and below 50 is contraction below. We're getting close to the line at this point with the headline number.The current conditions index falls to 56 from 61 and ...

We have some breaking economic data I see rolling across my ticker right now, University of Michigan, the final reading for October. Consumer sentiment falls to 53.6%. The estimate was for 54.5%.We have we have Michael McKee here with us on set, Bloomberg's international policy and economics Correspondent. So is this a case where above 50 is expansion and below 50 is contraction below. We're getting close to the line at this point with the headline number.The current conditions index falls to 56 from 61 and ...

Stubborn inflation is weighing heavily on shoppers' mood, according to the University of Michigan's survey. ...

Ernest HoffmanErnest Hoffman is a Crypto and Market Reporter for Kitco News. He has over 15 years of experience as a writer, editor, broadcaster and producer for media, educational and cultural organizations. Ernest began working in market news in 2007, establishing the broadcast division of CEP News in Montreal, Canada, where he developed the fastest web-based audio news service in the world and produced economic news videos in partnership with MSN and the TMX. He has a Bachelor's degree Specialization in ...

US consumer sentiment fell in October to a five-month low, as worries persisted about stubbornly high prices and the impact on their finances https://t.co/Ei68Ql0ham ...

UK households were more inclined to splash out on big-ticket items in October than at any point in almost four years despite the threat of tax increases, according to a long-running survey of consumer sentiment https://t.co/KdlVinGiol ...

Consumer Sentiment - U.S. consumer sentiment declined in October, with the University of Michigan's preliminary reading at 55, down from 55.1 in September, but above analysts' expectations of 54.1 [4] - Short-term inflation expectations eased slightly to 4.6% over the next 12 months, down from 4.7% the previous month, while long-term expectations remained unchanged at 3.7% [5] Market Environment - Overall consumer confidence remains low due to economic uncertainty, leading to increased volatility in Wall Street, exacerbated by fears of a trade dispute with China [2][7] - The ongoing government shutdown has contributed to market volatility, with all three major stock indexes ending lower last week [7] Defensive Stocks - In the current market environment, investors are advised to focus on low-beta, defensive stocks, particularly in the consumer staples sector, to mitigate market fluctuations [3] - Companies such as Energizer Holdings, Grocery Outlet, United Natural Foods, and Ollie's Bargain Outlet are highlighted for their steady earnings growth and improved estimates [9] Company Insights - **Energizer Holdings, Inc.**: Expected earnings growth rate of 8.7% for the current year, with a 1.4% improvement in earnings estimates over the last 60 days [8] - **Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.**: Expected earnings growth rate of 1.3% for the current year, with a 1.3% improvement in earnings estimates over the last 60 days [10] - **United Natural Foods, Inc.**: Expected earnings growth rate exceeds 100% for the current year, with a 24% improvement in earnings estimates over the past 60 days [12] - **Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.**: Expected earnings growth rate of 16.5% for the current year, with a 2.1% improvement in earnings estimates over the last 60 days [14]