Economic Data & Analysis - The US Commerce Secretary suggests that the Democratic shutdown, rather than tariffs, negatively impacted private sector job numbers and small businesses [3] - Deportation policies are also cited as a factor suppressing private job numbers, with an expectation of rebalancing and regrowth [4] - The US Commerce Secretary anticipates a superb GDP growth exceeding 4% next year, driven by construction projects [4] - The US Commerce Secretary claims prices remain stable unless tariffs exceed 15%, with suppliers and distributors absorbing the costs [6] - Inflation is reported to be below 3% [6] Trade & Tariffs - The report suggests tariffs are not the primary cause of economic concerns [3][6][7] - Some businesses are struggling with tariffs, higher costs, and uncertainty [5] - Factory activity shrank in November, with tariffs cited as a reason in a manufacturing report [5] Future Outlook - The US Commerce Secretary predicts significant growth in factory construction and AI building next year [7] - Plans to reduce the price of power in America are expected to further stimulate the economy [8]

One of the biggest scandals in finance is that trillions of dollars are being wagered daily on inaccurate economic data.About 40% of the CPI is estimated instead of measured.The Michigan consumer sentiment survey is politically corrupted by sample bias.The jobs data gets significant downward revisions months later.Everywhere you look, government data is painting the wrong picture about the economy.This is a big reason why the traditionalists have been wrong about their market predictions.It is hard to make ...

Market Overview - Pre-market futures indicate a decline after a strong trading session on Friday, with major indexes showing losses: Dow -207 points (-0.43%), S&P 500 -46 points (-0.67%), Nasdaq -239 points (-0.94%), and Russell 2000 -26 points (-1.06%) [1] Economic Indicators - The week is not characterized as a "Jobs Week" due to delays from a government shutdown, with private-sector payrolls from ADP expected on Wednesday, following a positive month in October (+42K) [2] - Final November S&P Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing results are anticipated, with S&P expected around the 50-level and ISM having not reached 50 since February, falling to 48.7% last month [6] Holiday Shopping Trends - Cyber Monday is projected to attract 73.9 million online shoppers, following Black Friday's 130.4 million and Small-Business Saturday's +67 million customers, indicating resilience in consumer spending despite economic concerns [3] - Adobe forecasts online shopping to reach $11.8 billion on Cyber Monday, a +9.1% increase from the previous year, while Mastercard reported Black Friday online sales up +10.4% [4] Upcoming Economic Reports - Delayed economic reports will be released this week, including September Imports & Exports on Wednesday and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report on Friday [7] - Key earnings reports from retailers such as Macy's, Dollar Tree, Dollar General, and American Eagle are expected, along with quarterly earnings from CrowdStrike and Salesforce [8]

Core Insights - The first week of the year features a comprehensive schedule of earnings reports and economic data [1] Earnings Reports - A variety of companies are expected to release their earnings, providing insights into their financial performance and market conditions [1] Economic Data - Key economic indicators will be released, which may influence market trends and investor sentiment [1]

Economic Indicators - Retail Sales for September increased by +0.2%, falling short of expectations and down from +0.6% in the previous two months, marking the lowest level since May's -0.8% [2][8] - The Control number for Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) came in at -0.1%, significantly lower than the +0.3% expected and the worst monthly figure in over a year [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for September was +0.3%, up from -0.1% the previous month but lower than +0.7% in July; year-over-year PPI increased to +2.7% [4] Employment Data - The preliminary ADP jobs data showed a decline of -13.5K, marking the third consecutive week of job losses, with the 4-week average falling below previous reports [5][6] - Upcoming monthly ADP jobs numbers for October are expected to show a potential weakening in job growth, with a possibility of the headline coming in below zero for four out of the last six months [6] Earnings Reports - Alibaba (BABA) reported earnings of $0.66 per share, missing estimates by 5 cents, but shares rose +3% due to stronger AI cloud sales, with a year-to-date increase of over +90% [9] - Best Buy (BBY) exceeded earnings expectations with $1.40 per share, leading to modest share gains, while Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) surpassed expectations by over +10% with earnings of $2.36 per share, resulting in an +18% increase in shares [10] - Kohl's (KSS) reported a positive surprise of +152% with earnings of +$0.10 per share, leading to a +26% increase in early trading [11] - Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) beat earnings expectations with $2.78 per share, but shares fell due to the announcement of Foot Locker closures [12]

Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy - A crisis is underway at the Federal Reserve, with Jerome Powell facing a revolt from fellow central bankers due to disagreements on monetary policy [1][2][6] - Two Fed governors dissented at the same meeting in July, a rare occurrence not seen since 1993, signaling potential cracks in the central bank's armor [4][6] - There's nearly an even split among voting members of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regarding a December rate cut, with approximately 63% odds assigned by the market to a rate cut and 95% odds on Poly Market for a 25 basis point cut [6][7] - The author anticipates the central bank will likely cut another 25 basis points, despite preferring a 50 basis point cut to bring interest rates below 3% [13][14] - Market chaos is expected if the Fed doesn't cut interest rates, as financial markets are anticipating cheap capital [16] Economic Data & Poverty Line - The traditional poverty line calculation, based on a 1963 formula of food costs multiplied by three, may be outdated due to significant changes in household spending patterns [17][21][22] - Applying the original poverty line logic to current spending patterns suggests a modern poverty line for a family of four could be between $130,000 and $150,000 per year [25][26] - Two-thirds of Americans may be living below this modern poverty line, indicating the economic data may be inaccurate and not reflecting people's actual financial struggles [27][28] Bitcoin & Market Volatility - Bitcoin has experienced a 35% drawdown from its all-time high, which is considered a healthy reset in the context of its historical volatility [41] - Over the last decade, Bitcoin has drawn down 30% or more 21 times, with seven of those drawdowns being 50% or more [39] - Bitcoin's volatility may be decreasing, potentially leading to smaller drawdowns (around 40% instead of 80%) [42] - Despite recent price drops, the S&P is only about 5% off all-time highs, and most markets around the world are up double digits, suggesting a broader bull trend [30][37]

Core Insights - Investors will have a break next week due to the market closure on November 27 for Thanksgiving, allowing time for assessment and reflection after a challenging week for Wall Street [2] - Despite the end of the U.S. government shutdown, some key economic reports are still being canceled due to insufficient survey data, impacting market expectations [3] Earnings Reports - Several companies are scheduled to report earnings next week, including Alibaba Group (BABA), Dell (DELL), Deere & Company (DE), Analog Devices (ADI), Best Buy (BBY), HP (HPQ), and DICK'S Sporting Goods (DKS) [4] - Specific earnings highlights include: - Monday: Agilent Technologies (A), Zoom Communications (ZM), Symbotic (SYM) [5] - Tuesday: Alibaba, Analog Devices (ADI), Dell Technologies, Best Buy (BBY), Autodesk (ADSK), Workday (WDAY), Zscaler (ZS), HP (HPQ), DICK'S Sporting Goods, J.M. Smucker (SJM), and NIO (NIO) [5] - Wednesday: Deere, Li Auto (LI) [5] - Thursday: Intuitive Machines (LUNR) [6] - Friday: Frontline Plc (FRO), Buckle, Inc. (BKE) [6]

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Market Overview - Futures are experiencing pressure, but there was some optimism from dip buying on Friday, indicating less uncertainty in the market [1] - The focus for the week is on Nvidia's earnings report, which is expected to impact many stocks driving the market [2][6] Economic Data and Fed Influence - The CME Fed watch tool indicates a decrease in the probability of a 25 basis point cut from 90% to 42.9%, reflecting market uncertainty influenced by Fed speakers [4] - Upcoming economic data, including jobs data and Fed minutes, will be crucial for market sentiment [3][4][10] Consumer Insights - Walmart's earnings report is anticipated to provide significant insights into the strength of the US consumer, alongside other retailers like Home Depot and TJX [6][7] - Recent Bank of America data has already provided a glimpse into consumer behavior, which will be further clarified by upcoming earnings [6][7] Key Economic Indicators - The market is awaiting delayed economic data, including construction spending, factory orders, and international trade, which are expected to be released this week [9][12] - The consensus expectations for the September jobs report are 50,000 jobs added and a 4.3% unemployment rate, which would indicate a strong economy if met [13]

Government & Policy - US government reopens after a 43-day shutdown following President Trump signing a funding bill [1] - Economic data missed due to the shutdown, including the October CPI and jobs report, may never be released [1] - Supreme Court to hear oral arguments on January 21st regarding President Trump's authority to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook [2] Technology & AI - Alibaba is reportedly preparing to overhaul its flagship AI apps to be more like OpenAI's ChatGPT, aiming for fully functioning AI agents [2] Economy & Finance - US is ending the production of the penny after more than 230 years [2]