Mr. . Chair, I wonder if you could describe for us some of those scenarios. How do you get to a place I'm noticing that the uncertainty levels in your forecast are very high. How do you get to a place where you have the confidence in the outlook for say inflation andor growth or the unemployment rate. How many months does it take and what do you want to see in the data to get to that level of confidence to actually reduce rates off the restrictive level.So, it's it's very very hard to say when that will hap ...

Economic Outlook - The economy is growing, with unemployment at 42% [3] - The economy is growing at an estimated rate of 15% to 2% [3] - Sentiment has increased from very low levels, but remains depressed [3][4] - The current monetary policy allows for timely responses to economic changes, with careful monitoring of data [7] Inflation & Tariffs - Inflation has cooled to roughly 2% despite tariffs [1] - There are concerns that tariffs could lead to demand destruction and slower growth, potentially keeping inflation low [7] - The likelihood of lower inflation due to tariffs is uncertain, requiring several months of cool inflation data to confirm [7] Housing Market - The housing market faces both short-term and long-term challenges, including a housing shortage and high rates [4] - Restoring price stability and maintaining a strong labor market are seen as the best approaches to support the housing market [5] Job Market - Overall labor force participation, wages, and job creation are at healthy levels [5] - There may be a very slow, continued cooling in the job market, but it is not currently troubling [6] Monetary Policy & Rate Paths - Rate paths are data-dependent and subject to high uncertainty [9][10] - Rate paths involving cuts suggest an expectation that cuts will become appropriate [9]

boosting the richest by $12,000 a year. Joining us right now is Phil Swagel. He's the director of the Congressional Budget Office.And Phil, let's talk through some of the criticism you've received. Russ Vought said on X that this bill reduces deficits by $1.4% trillion. When you adjust for the CBO's one big gimmick, not using a realistic current policy baseline.Caroline Leavitt said that the CBO assumes long term GDP growth of an anemic 1.8%. And that's absurd. And then you had President Trump himself sayin ...

is we did not get here overnight. Uh I have gained about 10 lbs since inauguration. I'm not going to cut off my arm to get back to my January 20th weight.But we don't have a chance of returning to a balanced budget if we don't return to preandemic levels of spending. And I've laid out a number of options. Leave social security, Medicare, and interest as they are as you spend.But all their outlays, actual outlays, increase them by population growth and inflation. we literally would have a baseline spending s ...

Inflation & Economic Policy - The administration believes its policies are driving down inflation by boosting the economy's supply side, enabling firms to produce more efficiently [1][2] - Concerns exist that companies may hesitate to pass on tariff-related costs due to fears of reduced consumer demand, potentially impacting economic growth and bottom lines [3] - The theory of tax incentives suggests the more inflexible party bears the tariff burden, with American consumers potentially changing consumption patterns [4][5] Trade & Tariffs - Firms can adjust supply chains, sourcing from countries with favorable trade deals, to avoid tariffs [6][7] - Tariffs aim to encourage countries to lower barriers to US products, creating more balanced trade and offering alternative markets [21] - Reciprocal tariffs remain a negotiating tool, potentially implemented if trade negotiations don't progress [19][22] - The president intends to use tariffs to incentivize countries to advance negotiations and make concessions, fostering a fair trade environment [24] Fiscal Policy & Deficit - The administration asserts it takes the deficit seriously and has a plan to reduce it through tax relief, deregulation, energy abundance, and trade renegotiation, aiming for 3% GDP growth [12][13] - Increased GDP growth, tariff revenues, and supply-side expansion are expected to contribute to deficit reduction [13] - Incentives like full expensing of equipment, R&D, and new factories are designed to stimulate investment in America, expanding productive capacity and keeping inflation low [8][9][10] - The administration anticipates deficit reduction through better economic growth, tariff revenue, reduced interest expenses, and cuts to waste, fraud, and abuse [16] - The administration projects 3 to 4 percentage points of GDP worth of deficit reduction, not fully reflected in the CBO score [15]

Core Insights - Business owners exhibit a positive outlook for economic growth in the latter half of 2025, despite mixed feelings regarding the impact of tariffs on the economy [2][6] - The survey indicates that businesses are strategically responding to economic uncertainty by managing inventory carefully and delaying capital expenditures [3][4] Economic Sentiment - Over 60% of business owners believe the economy will grow in the next six months, yet over 55% express dissatisfaction with current tariff policies, viewing them as detrimental to the U.S. economy [6] - More than 70% of respondents are concerned about the impact of tariffs on their businesses, although the immediate effects have been minimal, with over 80% reporting "somewhat of an impact" or "none" [6] Tariff Impact and Business Strategies - A significant portion of business owners anticipates that tariffs will decrease their revenue, with over half believing tariffs will negatively affect their businesses [6] - Approximately 32.55% of businesses have adjusted their inventory levels in response to tariffs, while 31.69% are still evaluating their inventory strategies [6] - Just under 30% of businesses plan to halt hiring, while nearly 50% report no changes to their hiring plans [6] Capital Expenditures and Pricing Strategies - A slight majority (41.68%) of respondents plan to delay major capital expenditures due to economic uncertainty [6] - Over 37% of businesses expect to pass the cost of tariffs onto customers, while just under 30% anticipate absorbing these costs [6]

Core Viewpoint - Ameren Missouri has filed the Powering Missouri Growth Plan to meet the increasing energy demands of large businesses while ensuring fair rates for all customers [1][2]. Group 1: Goals of the Plan - The plan aims to attract new jobs and investments, support current customers' expansion, and enhance the community's appeal for business [2]. - It includes consumer protection measures in line with Missouri Senate Bill 4, which will take effect on August 28 [2]. Group 2: Economic Impact - If approved, the plan will ensure that new large customers contribute fairly to the costs of electric service while maintaining reasonable rates for existing customers [3]. - The initiative is expected to create significant job growth and stimulate millions in local investments [4][6]. Group 3: Energy Strategy - Ameren Missouri is revising its generation strategy to support an anticipated 2.0 gigawatts (GW) of new energy demand by 2032, focusing on a balanced mix of generation resources [5]. - The company emphasizes its commitment to providing reliable, affordable, and cleaner energy to attract new and expanding businesses [5]. Group 4: Company Overview - Ameren Missouri has over 100 years of experience in providing electric and gas services, serving approximately 1.3 million electric and 135,000 natural gas customers [6]. - The company operates in a service area covering about 60 counties and more than 500 communities, with some of the lowest electric rates in the nation [6].