The stock market set new highs last week as measures of the economy, like job creation, continued to cool.Some charts from September's research notes, news articles, and blogs caught my eye. Instead of publishing a series of newsletters, I figured I'd do a lightning round here.The stock market is not the economyThe U.S. stock market and the U.S. economy are closely intertwined. Yet the makeup of earnings per share (EPS), which drives stock prices, differs in several key ways from the makeup of GDP.From Well ...

Everyone is expecting BTC USD to pump after the rate cuts. You know what that means. This is the start of figuring out if can add another $3 Tn in market cap to bring the price of Bitcoin to 200k USD in 2025. Currently, BTC is just above $115,000, heading into one of the most important macro weeks of the year. With the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting set for September 17, let’s talk about the odds that BTC USD breaks new ATHs or crashes below $100,000 DISCOVER: Next 1000X Crypto: 10+ Crypto Tokens That ...

BlackRock shifted its tactical view of long-term Treasurys but said the macroeconomic backdrop is "murky.†...

Our next guest has been calling for 100 basis points of cuts this year for months, long before we saw a downturn in the official jobs data. So what is he looking for this week and how should investors position. With us is Barry Knap, Ironside's macroeconomics director of research.Barry, it's great to see you. >> Good to see you again, Mike. >> So it's it's an interesting take that you have here that in other words, 100 basis points is warranted.I guess you would also say perhaps overdue. Uh, at the same tim ...

Stocks should extend their record-setting rally deep into next year, fueled by a series of Fed rate cuts that—by most accounts—will begin this week. ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the US equity market and the implications of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts on various sectors and stocks [1][2][9]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Fed Rate Cuts Expectations**: Anticipation of a Fed rate cut next week, with market consensus predicting four 25 basis point cuts through March [2][9]. 2. **Economic Conditions**: The performance of equities is closely tied to the underlying economic conditions, with a focus on whether the economy experiences a soft landing or recession [2][3][4][36]. 3. **Rate Sensitivity Analysis**: The analysis emphasizes the importance of understanding which sectors and stocks are most sensitive to changes in the 2-year Treasury yields, particularly in the context of a steepening yield curve [10][12][36]. 4. **Investment Strategy**: The recommendation is to overweight Growth stocks, particularly in a soft landing scenario, while also considering SMID (small and mid-cap) stocks for cyclical exposure [6][14][45]. 5. **Sector Performance**: Real Estate and Utilities are highlighted as sectors likely to benefit from falling rates due to their debt profiles, while sectors like Energy and Information Technology may underperform [17][20][23]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Market Dynamics**: The analysis suggests that traditional defensive sectors may outperform in a negative economic data scenario, while cyclical sectors may do better in a positive economic backdrop [26][36][45]. 2. **Stock-Specific Screens**: The report includes a sector-neutral screening methodology to identify stocks most and least sensitive to falling rates, providing a detailed list of top and bottom performers across various sectors [37][50]. 3. **Conditional Scenarios**: The report outlines different scenarios based on economic conditions, emphasizing that the economic backdrop will significantly influence market responses to Fed rate cuts [36][45]. 4. **Performance Metrics**: The analysis includes performance metrics for stocks based on their sensitivity to rate changes, with specific attention to expected earnings growth, valuation, and beta [47][48]. Conclusion - The overall takeaway is that the economic conditions surrounding the anticipated Fed rate cuts will be critical for positioning in the equity market. Investors are encouraged to consider size, style, and sector tilts based on their economic outlook, with a focus on stock-picking within identified sectors [49][50].

Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Sept. 17, lowering the benchmark range to 4.00%-4.25% [1] - Further easing is anticipated, potentially bringing rates down to around 3% within the next 12 months, with the fed funds futures market indicating a drop to less than 3% by the end of 2026 [1] Treasury Yields and Market Dynamics - Bitcoin bulls are optimistic that the anticipated easing will lead to lower Treasury yields, encouraging risk-taking in the economy and financial markets [2] - However, the expected Fed rate cuts may primarily affect the two-year Treasury yield, while long-term yields could remain elevated due to fiscal concerns and persistent inflation [2] Debt Supply and Fiscal Policy - The U.S. government is expected to increase the issuance of Treasury bills and longer-duration Treasury notes to finance tax cuts and increased defense spending, potentially adding over $2.4 trillion to primary deficits over ten years and increasing debt by nearly $3 trillion [3] - The increased supply of debt is likely to pressure bond prices down and lift yields, particularly for longer-term securities [4] Investor Sentiment and Yield Curve - Investors are demanding higher yields for long-term Treasuries due to concerns about inflation and dollar depreciation linked to high debt levels, which may prevent long-term bond yields from falling significantly [6] - The ongoing steepening of the yield curve indicates rising concerns about fiscal policy, as reflected in the widening spread between different maturities of Treasury yields [5]

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Core Viewpoint - The US stock market is experiencing a strong rally, driven by positive earnings, steady economic conditions, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, although Goldman Sachs has identified potential risks that could impact stock prices [1][2][5]. Economic Conditions - The US economy is perceived to be in a favorable position, with resilient growth and signs of weakness in certain sectors, such as the job market, which may allow for interest rate cuts by the Fed [2][5]. - August inflation data met economists' expectations, maintaining optimism for future rate cuts [3]. Market Risks - Goldman Sachs highlighted two primary risks that could hinder the stock market's upward momentum: concerns about a potential recession and a possible reduction in expectations for Fed rate cuts [5]. - The market has been buoyed by weak job growth and slowing manufacturing activity, which have supported the case for rate cuts, but this situation could change rapidly [6]. Recession Concerns - There is an ongoing concern about a potential recession, although investors have largely dismissed these risks, with the market-implied US forward growth rate estimated at around 1.6%, indicating expectations for growth near historical norms [7]. - A continued weakening in the job market could shift investor sentiment, especially if the unemployment rate rises sharply, which would prompt the market to anticipate earlier rate cuts and put pressure on equities [8][9].

Clearly, corporate America is expecting Fed cuts here, and it seems like we're all but certain we're going to see 25 basis points next Wednesday. But it's all about the messaging, isn't it. What tone do you expect that Jerome Powell will actually take at the press conference.I think he can get a good idea on the tone about the way they signaled the policy action. Chair Powell essentially told us that they would ease at his speech in Jackson Hole, but he wasn't really that explicit. Why.Because probably he h ...