There's an emerging divide at the Federal Reserve. >> This is a generally a consensus driven committee. Consensus is not there right now.>> It's a high stakes difference of opinion. The Fed's leaders set an interest rate that can affect your job prospects, your home's value, and the cost of virtually all financial products. >> We're talking about mortgages, talking about credit cards, car loans, all those kind of things that people use over the course of their daily lives.What is important to know is the di ...

Economic Changes Under Trump Administration - The second Donald Trump Administration has made significant changes to the economy and shows no signs of slowing down [1] Deficit Spending and Interest Rates - The government's $2 trillion deficit is putting upward pressure on Treasury yields, which affects borrowing costs across the economy [4] - Economists suggest that reducing deficit spending could lead to lower interest rates, benefiting mortgages, car loans, and business credit [3][4] National Debt Concerns - The national debt is approaching $40 trillion, raising concerns about the budget and deficit among the public [5] Housing Market Dynamics - Single-family home prices have increased by 0.1% over the last 12 months, remaining near all-time highs [6] - Economists argue that high housing costs are due to insufficient new construction rather than the length of mortgage loans [6][7] Inflation Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has risen from 2.3% in April to 3% by September, with forecasts indicating a core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index of 3.3% for Q4 2025, largely driven by tariffs [8]

Core Insights - CD rates are currently higher than historical averages, with some financial institutions offering rates of 4% APY and above, particularly online banks [2][3] - The highest CD rate as of December 4, 2025, is 4.1% APY from Marcus by Goldman Sachs for a 14-month CD [2] - The Federal Reserve has been cutting its target rate, which has led to a decline in CD rates since last year [2][4] Group 1: Current CD Rates - CD rates are relatively high compared to historical averages, but they have been declining since the Federal Reserve began cutting rates [2][3] - Several financial institutions are offering competitive rates of 4% APY and up, with the highest being 4.1% APY from Marcus by Goldman Sachs [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has cut its target rate three times in late 2024 by a total of one percentage point due to slowing inflation and an improved economic outlook [3] - The Fed announced its second rate cut of 2025 in October, with uncertainty regarding future cuts [4] Group 3: Impact on CD Rates - The federal funds rate does not directly impact deposit interest rates, but they are correlated; when the Fed lowers rates, financial institutions typically follow suit [5] - As the Fed lowers its rate, CD rates are beginning to fall again, suggesting that now may be a good time to lock in current rates [5] Group 4: Opening a CD - The process for opening a CD account varies by institution but generally includes researching rates, choosing an account that meets financial needs, preparing necessary documents, completing the application, and funding the account [6]

Core Insights - The article discusses the current state of money market account (MMA) rates, highlighting the impact of recent Federal Reserve rate cuts on these rates and the importance of finding competitive rates for savings [1][5]. Group 1: Current MMA Rates - The national average interest rate for money market accounts is 0.59%, while top rates can exceed 4% APY, comparable to high-yield savings accounts [2]. - TotalBank currently offers the highest MMA rate at 4.26%, which is over seven times the national average [8]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Influence - Money market account rates are closely tied to the federal funds rate set by the Federal Reserve, which influences deposit account rates [3]. - Following a series of rate cuts by the Fed, including a 50 basis point cut in September 2024 and additional cuts in November and December, money market rates have begun to decline [4]. Group 3: Future Rate Expectations - Rates are expected to continue declining after the Fed's recent rate cut in October, suggesting that savers may have limited time to take advantage of higher rates [5]. Group 4: Considerations for Savers - Money market accounts are appealing for those seeking safety, liquidity, and better returns than traditional savings accounts, especially in the current elevated interest rate environment [6]. - Factors to consider when choosing a money market account include liquidity needs, savings goals, and risk tolerance [7].

Some key takeaways from the FOMC minutes from the October 28th 29th meeting. Real GDP growth moderated in early 2025 admit data limitations from the government shutdown with forecast predicting modestly stronger expansion through 2028. Labor market risk appeared skewed to the downside while inflation risk are tilted to the upside.PCE and core PCE inflation both stood at 2.8% 8% in September with PCE data up year-over-year due to tariffs but core unchanged. Inflation is expected to ease towards 2% after 2026 ...

Core Insights - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 4.06% as of November 21, 2025, with the 2-year note at 3.51% and the 30-year note at 4.71% [1] - The inverted yield curve, where longer-term yields are lower than shorter-term yields, is a reliable leading indicator for recessions, typically turning negative before recessions [2][3] - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average of 18.5 weeks [4][6] Treasury Yield Analysis - The 10-2 spread has shown multiple instances of turning negative before rising again, particularly noted before the 2009 recession [3][5] - The 10-3 month spread also indicates a similar pattern, with a negative spread observed from October 25, 2022, to December 12, 2024 [5] - The Federal Funds Rate (FFR) influences mortgage rates, with the latest 30-year fixed mortgage rate reported at 6.26%, one of the lowest levels in over a year [7] Market Behavior - Federal Reserve policy has significantly influenced market behavior, particularly in relation to Treasury yields and mortgage rates [8] - ETFs associated with Treasuries include Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT), and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) [9]

Inflation Outlook - The Fed was divided on whether inflation would rise too high [1] - Some members noted inflation had been above target for some time with little sign of returning [2] - Concerns existed regarding persistent core non-housing services inflation and tariff-related inflation in core goods [2] - Businesses planned to raise prices gradually in response to higher tariff-related input costs [2] - Productivity gains might limit the pass-through of tariff costs [3] Economic Activity & Labor Market - The economy was expanding at a moderate pace and the unemployment rate remained low [1] - A few members thought the softening labor market and changes in immigration would keep prices in check [3] - Elevated risks to the labor market were observed, particularly for groups historically more sensitive to economic cycles [3][4] - Divergence existed between subdued job growth and relatively strong GDP [4] - Trade tensions could weigh on economic activity [4] Monetary Policy - Many participants favored lowering the target range for the federal funds rate [4] - Strongly differing views existed regarding the appropriate policy decision at the December meeting [5] - The minutes confirm the Fed was divided and uncertain about the economic outlook [6]

This story was originally published on CFO Dive. To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily CFO Dive newsletter. Dive Brief: Seven out of 10 small businesses see inflation as their top worry for the months ahead, with 64% raising prices for goods or services, Bank of America found in a national survey. Price pressures have compelled nearly four out of 10 small businesses (39%) to reevaluate cash flow and spending for the coming year, Bank of America said. Still, 74% of small busines ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the current state of money market account (MMA) rates, highlighting the impact of recent Federal Reserve rate cuts on these rates and the importance of finding competitive rates for savings [1][5]. Group 1: Current MMA Rates - The national average interest rate for money market accounts is 0.59%, while top rates can exceed 4% APY, comparable to high-yield savings accounts [2]. - TotalBank currently offers the highest MMA rate at 4.26%, which is over seven times the national average [8]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Influence - Money market account rates are closely tied to the federal funds rate set by the Federal Reserve, which influences deposit account rates [3]. - Following a series of rate cuts by the Fed, including a 50 basis point cut in September 2024 and additional cuts in November and December, money market rates have begun to decline [4]. Group 3: Future Rate Expectations - Rates are expected to continue declining after the Fed's recent rate cut in October, suggesting that savers may have limited time to benefit from higher rates [5]. Group 4: Considerations for Savers - Money market accounts are appealing for those seeking safety, liquidity, and better returns than traditional savings accounts, especially in the current elevated interest rate environment [6]. - Factors to consider when choosing a money market account include liquidity needs, savings goals, and risk tolerance [7].

The terminal federal funds rate is the final interest rate that the Federal Reserve sets as its target for the federal funds rate. https://t.co/IloBabP0pP ...