Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Bank of New York encourages firms to utilize the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) as needed, indicating that large-scale usage is acceptable and expected [1][2]. Group 1: SRF Usage and Economic Context - The SRF is designed to be used whenever it is economically sensible, allowing eligible financial firms to convert bonds into cash quickly to address market liquidity needs [2][5]. - Recent trends show rising money market rates and increased usage of the SRF, signaling tightening market liquidity levels [5][6]. - Despite notable usage in late October, it was less than anticipated, with some firms opting to borrow from markets at higher rates instead of utilizing the SRF [6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Future Expectations - The Federal Reserve has been reducing its bond holdings since 2022 to manage market liquidity and maintain control over the federal funds rate [4]. - As Wall Street becomes more familiar with the SRF, its usage is expected to increase, particularly if repo pressures persist or intensify, which would help alleviate upward rate pressure [7].

Core Insights - The article discusses the current state of money market account (MMA) rates, highlighting the impact of recent Federal Reserve rate cuts on these rates and the importance of finding competitive rates for savings [1][5]. Group 1: Current MMA Rates - The national average interest rate for money market accounts is 0.59%, while top rates can exceed 4% APY, comparable to high-yield savings accounts [2]. - TotalBank currently offers the highest MMA rate at 4.26%, which is over seven times the national average [8]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Influence - Money market account rates are closely tied to the federal funds rate set by the Federal Reserve, which influences deposit account rates [3]. - Following a series of rate cuts by the Fed, including a 50 basis point cut in September 2024 and additional cuts in November and December, money market rates have begun to decline [4]. Group 3: Future Rate Expectations - Rates are expected to continue declining after the Fed's recent rate cut in October, suggesting that savers may have limited time to benefit from higher rates [5]. Group 4: Considerations for Savers - Money market accounts are appealing for those seeking safety, liquidity, and better returns than traditional savings accounts, especially in the current elevated interest rate environment [6]. - Factors to consider when choosing a money market account include liquidity needs, savings goals, and risk tolerance [7].

Market & Economic Outlook - The market is anticipating a pause in rate cuts in December, potentially extending into the new year, influenced by Fed Chair Powell's recent signals [2][4][5] - The economy is showing resilience, reflected in surprisingly strong earnings reports, with Q3 earnings increasing by 14% year-over-year, exceeding initial estimates of 65% [5][6][7] - The analyst anticipates the S&P 500 reaching 7000 by year-end and 7700 by the end of next year, indicating a continued bull market [16][17] - The analyst believes the US economy does not need support, suggesting the Fed's previous rate cuts may have been a mistake [8][9] Monetary Policy & Interest Rates - The Fed has already lowered the federal funds rate by 150 basis points over the past year [2] - The analyst questions the effectiveness of lowering interest rates to solve labor market issues and expresses doubt about the concept of a measurable neutral rate [3][12][13] - Despite the Fed cutting rates by 50 basis points in September and October, bond yields remain sticky around 4%, and mortgages around 6-65%, indicating resistance to further easing [10][11] Gold & Currency - The analyst initially lacked a view on gold due to its lack of income, but now sees potential for a major breakout, driven by geopolitical factors and Chinese investment [22][23][24][25] - The analyst projects gold prices to reach $5000 by the end of next year and $10000 by the end of the decade [26] - The analyst is contrarian on the dollar, anticipating surprising strength potentially due to the legitimization of stablecoins [27][29][30] Tariffs & Geopolitical Risks - The market has largely discounted the reopening of the US government [18][19] - There is a risk that the Supreme Court may rule Trump's tariffs unconstitutional, potentially requiring the government to refund $350 billion over 12 months, which could adversely affect the bond market [19][20]

Core Insights - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 4.11% as of November 7, 2025, with the 2-year note at 3.55% and the 30-year note at 4.70% [1] - The inverted yield curve, where longer-term yields are lower than shorter-term yields, is a reliable leading indicator for recessions, typically turning negative before recessions [2][3] - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average of 18.5 weeks [4][6] Treasury Yield Analysis - The 10-2 spread has shown a consistent negative trend from July 5, 2022, to August 26, 2024, with the last negative spread recorded on September 5, 2024 [3] - The 10-3 month spread also turned negative recently, indicating potential recession signals, with lead times ranging from 34 to 69 weeks [5] Mortgage Rate Trends - The Federal Funds Rate influences borrowing costs, and while typically a rising FFR leads to higher mortgage rates, recent trends show mortgage rates declining despite the Fed holding rates steady [7] - The latest Freddie Mac survey reported the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.22%, marking one of the lowest levels in over a year [7] Market Behavior and Federal Reserve Influence - Federal Reserve policies have significantly impacted market behavior, particularly in relation to Treasury yields and the S&P 500 [8] - Various ETFs associated with Treasuries, such as Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT), and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT), are available for investors [9]

Monetary Policy Strategy - The speaker suggests implementing measures to enhance velocity within the financial system [1] - Focus on stabilizing the back end of the yield curve to maintain mortgage rates conducive to real estate activity and existing home sales [2] - The speaker believes the funds rate should be at 3% [3] - Suggests that if the market is mispriced, it should be corrected to the appropriate level [4] Interest Rate Management - The speaker indicates the possibility of initially moving rates slightly lower [4] - Advocates for a reassessment of the economic situation after the initial rate adjustment to determine the need for further adjustments [4] Inflation Expectations - The speaker mentions a five-year inflation break-even rate of 235 basis points (2.35%) [3]

Core Insights - CD rates are currently higher than historical averages, with some institutions offering rates of 4% APY and above, particularly online banks [2][5] - The highest CD rate as of November 6, 2025, is 4.1% APY, available from Marcus by Goldman Sachs and Sallie Mae [2] - The Federal Reserve has been cutting its target rate, which has led to a decline in CD rates since last year [2][4] Group 1: Current CD Rates - CD rates are relatively high compared to historical averages, but they have been declining since the Federal Reserve began cutting rates [2] - Several financial institutions are offering competitive rates of 4% APY and up, with the highest being 4.1% APY [2] - The Federal Reserve cut its target rate three times in late 2024 by a total of one percentage point, impacting CD rates [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced its second rate cut of 2025 in October, with potential for additional cuts [4] - The federal funds rate does not directly impact deposit interest rates, but they are correlated, leading to a decline in CD rates following Fed rate cuts [5] Group 3: Opening a CD - The process for opening a CD account varies by institution, but generally includes researching rates, choosing an account, preparing documents, completing the application, and funding the account [6] - It is important to compare CD rates online and consider factors such as term length and minimum deposit requirements [6] - Many financial institutions allow online applications, streamlining the process for opening a CD [6]

Group 1 - The document provides various footnotes and sources for data as of specific dates, indicating a reliance on reputable financial data providers such as FactSet and Bloomberg [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12]. - It mentions the importance of understanding economic indicators like Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and sovereign debt, which are critical for assessing economic health and investment opportunities [6][7]. - The MSCI EAFE Index and S&P 500 Index are highlighted as benchmarks for evaluating the performance of equities in developed markets and the US market, respectively [7][8]. Group 2 - The document emphasizes that past performance is not indicative of future results, which is a crucial consideration for investors [3]. - It outlines the risks associated with foreign investments, including currency fluctuations and political instability, which can impact investment returns [4]. - The document notes that investments in gold and related assets tend to be more volatile compared to broader equity or debt markets, highlighting the need for careful consideration in asset allocation [5].

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve decided to end its balance-sheet runoff after a drop in bank reserves [1] - Officials are focusing on the federal funds rate as the main tool for monetary policy [1] - The federal funds rate will also help assess liquidity in the financial system [1]

All right, let's talk about the impact of trade, the Fed, and tech earnings on the market. Joining us now, Ed Yardenni, president of Yardeni Research. Ed, good morning.Good to see you. Um, been an interesting 20 hours along all of those fronts. You know, we've got a good test of the elements of the bull case, which are, you know, obviously AI momentum, maybe some kind of trade progress, and then a dovish Fed, which uh maybe is not as dovish as we thought.What do you make of the market response to all that. ...

Core Insights - Mortgage rates are currently at their lowest in a year at 6.19%, but have remained above 6% for the past three years, causing frustration among potential homebuyers [1] - The Federal Reserve's actions, particularly regarding its balance sheet, significantly influence mortgage rates, even though it does not set them directly [1][5] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's new target for the benchmark Federal Funds Rate is set between 3.75% and 4.00% effective October 29 [2] - The Fed has implemented its second quarter-point interest rate cut of 2025 to balance its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment [3] - The Fed's total assets are approximately $6.59 trillion, representing about 22% of U.S. nominal GDP as of October 22 [4] Group 2: Quantitative Tightening and Easing - During Quantitative Tightening (QT), the Fed reduces its balance sheet by selling or allowing bonds to mature, which removes money from the system [7] - Conversely, during Quantitative Easing (QE), the Fed buys bonds and mortgage-backed securities to inject money into the economy, typically lowering long-term rates [7] - The Fed has been a net seller of Treasuries since 2022, which has pressured rates higher and elevated borrowing costs, including mortgages [8]