Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [2]. Core Insights - The report raises end-2025 US 2y/10y yield forecasts to 3.9%/4.5% from 3.3%/4.0% due to a larger-than-expected decline in US-China tariffs [3]. - It anticipates global real GDP growth to slow to 2.3% year-on-year in 2025, influenced by higher US tariffs [3]. - The report expects US real GDP growth to decelerate to 1.0% in 2025, with a 35% probability of entering a recession within the next 12 months [3]. - In China, real GDP growth is projected at 4.6% year-on-year in 2025, despite ongoing challenges from higher US tariffs and domestic issues [3][13]. - The Euro area is expected to see real GDP growth of 0.9% year-on-year in 2025, amid elevated trade policy uncertainty [3]. Economic Forecasts - Global GDP growth is forecasted at 2.3% for 2025, with US GDP growth at 1.0% and China at 4.6% [15]. - Core inflation in the US is expected to rise to 3.6% year-on-year by the end of 2025, driven by higher tariffs [3]. - The unemployment rate in the US is projected to increase to 4.5% by the end of 2025 [3]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to continue rate cuts until the policy rate reaches 1.75% in July 2025 [3]. Sector-Specific Insights - The report highlights the importance of monitoring US policy and geopolitical developments, particularly regarding US-China relations and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East [13]. - It notes that uncertainty surrounding US tariff policy poses significant risks to both the US and global economies [13].

花旗：将泰国2025年GDP增长预测从2.2%下调至2%，预计随着关税的实施，泰国今年下半年的GDP增 长将放缓至1%；预计泰国央行10月份将降息25个基点。 ...

据报道，花旗将泰国2025年GDP增长预测从2.2%下调至2%。 ...

智通财经5月20日电，花旗将泰国2025年GDP增长预测从2.2%下调至2%。 ...

巴西经济学家预测2025年GDP将增长2.02%，此前预估为2%；预测2026年为1.70%，此前预测为 1.70%。 ...

智通财经5月19日电，野村认为，近期中美经贸会谈取得实质性进展对中国经济而言是一大利好，尤其 是对第二季度经济而言。野村将中国第二季度GDP同比增长预测从3.7%上调至4.8%，并略微将第三季 度和第四季度增长预测分别从3.6%上调至4.0%，将全年GDP增长预测从此前的4.0%上调至4.5%。具体 而言，野村将2025年中国出口增长预测从-2.0%上调至0.0%，零售增速预测从3.5%上调至3.7%。 野村上调中国GDP增长预测 ...

欧盟委员会：将2025年欧元区GDP增长预测从11月的1.3%下调至0.9%，并预计2026年增长1.4%，此前 为1.6%。 ...

China and the US both lowered the "reciprocal" tariff rates significantly and agreed to continue discussions and negotiations (see our earlier report), possibly with the framework of Phase One Deal as the starting point. We estimate that the weighted average incremental US tariff rate on Chinese goods in 2025 YTD is around 30% (ad valorem, vs 96% before the de-escalation), which is still very damaging for China's exports and growth. There is still significant uncertainty around future US-China negotiations, ...

英国央行：预测2025年GDP增长为1%（2月预测为0.75%），2026年为1.25%（2月预测为1.5%），2027 年为1.5%（2月预测为1.5%）。 ...

英国央行预测2025年GDP增长为1%，2月预测为0.75%；2026年为1.25%，2月预测为1.5%；2027年为 1.5%，2月预测为1.5%。 ...