Group 1 - The Brazilian economist predicts a GDP growth of 2.21% for 2025, unchanged from previous forecasts [1] - The GDP growth rate for 2026 is estimated at 1.87%, slightly up from the prior estimate of 1.85% [1]

Group 1 - The OECD has revised down the UK's GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.3% from a previous estimate of 1.4% [1] - The GDP growth forecast for 2026 has also been lowered to 1.0% from 1.2% [1]

经合组织将英国2025年GDP增长预测下调至1.3%（先前为1.4%），2026年GDP增长预测下调至1.0% （先前为1.2%）。 ...

经合组织维持欧元区2025年GDP增长预测为1.0%，维持2026年预期为1.2%。 ...

Domestic News - The box office for the Dragon Boat Festival holiday is projected to reach 4.59 billion, representing a 20% increase [1] - The total inter-regional movement of people during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday is expected to reach 657 million [1] - Hong Kong's Financial Secretary, Paul Chan, maintains the GDP growth forecast for the year at 2% to 3% [1] International News - EU officials reiterated warnings against tariffs as US and EU trade officials are set to meet [2] - Gabon announced plans to halt the export of manganese ore starting in 2029 [2] - The Indian government will offer a 15% tariff reduction for eligible companies importing electric vehicles [2] - US manufacturing activity shrank for the fourth consecutive month in May, highlighting the impact of tariffs [2] - The US Senate is reviewing a tax proposal that includes the "Section 899 tax clause" [2] - Gold and silver prices surged significantly, with gold rising nearly $100 and silver increasing over 5%, reaching the highest levels since October of the previous year [2] - US-Iran negotiations show a reversal in US stance, allowing low-level uranium enrichment, while Iran describes the proposal as incoherent [2] - The second round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine concluded without a ceasefire agreement, although both sides agreed to exchange some prisoners [2] - The EU is drafting the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, primarily targeting its energy revenue [2] Federal Reserve - The GDPNow model forecasts a 4.6% growth rate for the US Q2 GDP, up from a previous estimate of 3.8% [3] - Current inflation data may not fully reflect the impact of tariffs, with interest rates expected to decrease significantly within 15 months [3] - The Federal Reserve is prepared to remain patient and respond as necessary [3]

Group 1 - Israel has revised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 4.3% to 3.6% [1] - The GDP growth forecast for 2026 has been adjusted from 5.4% to 4.4% [1]

Group 1 - UBS has raised its GDP growth forecast for Hong Kong in 2025 from 1% to 2.2% [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS has raised its GDP growth forecast for Hong Kong in 2025 from 1% to 2.2% [1] Economic Outlook - The adjustment in GDP growth forecast indicates a more optimistic view on Hong Kong's economic recovery and performance in the coming years [1]

Group 1 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that the UK's GDP will grow by 1.2% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026, an increase from the previous April forecast of 1.1% for 2025 while maintaining the 1.4% growth for 2026 [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [2]. Core Insights - The report raises end-2025 US 2y/10y yield forecasts to 3.9%/4.5% from 3.3%/4.0% due to a larger-than-expected decline in US-China tariffs [3]. - It anticipates global real GDP growth to slow to 2.3% year-on-year in 2025, influenced by higher US tariffs [3]. - The report expects US real GDP growth to decelerate to 1.0% in 2025, with a 35% probability of entering a recession within the next 12 months [3]. - In China, real GDP growth is projected at 4.6% year-on-year in 2025, despite ongoing challenges from higher US tariffs and domestic issues [3][13]. - The Euro area is expected to see real GDP growth of 0.9% year-on-year in 2025, amid elevated trade policy uncertainty [3]. Economic Forecasts - Global GDP growth is forecasted at 2.3% for 2025, with US GDP growth at 1.0% and China at 4.6% [15]. - Core inflation in the US is expected to rise to 3.6% year-on-year by the end of 2025, driven by higher tariffs [3]. - The unemployment rate in the US is projected to increase to 4.5% by the end of 2025 [3]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to continue rate cuts until the policy rate reaches 1.75% in July 2025 [3]. Sector-Specific Insights - The report highlights the importance of monitoring US policy and geopolitical developments, particularly regarding US-China relations and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East [13]. - It notes that uncertainty surrounding US tariff policy poses significant risks to both the US and global economies [13].