Group 1 - Barclays has raised South Korea's GDP growth forecast for 2026 from 1.7% to 2.1% due to the recovery in the semiconductor industry [1] - The forecast for South Korea's current account surplus in 2026 has been increased from 8.4 billion to 11 billion USD [1] - Economist Bum Ki Son stated that South Korea's international balance of payments is expected to show its strongest performance in 15 years, driven by foreign portfolio inflows [1] Group 2 - It is anticipated that the Bank of Korea will only lower interest rates once more, potentially in November, bringing the terminal rate of the current easing cycle down to 2.25% [1] - Previously, it was predicted that there would be two more rate cuts, one in November and another in February 2026 [1]

Core Insights - Bank Pekao has revised Poland's GDP growth forecast for 2025 down from 4.0% to 3.6% while increasing the 2026 forecast from 3.7% to 4.0% [1] - Economists predict that economic growth will accelerate in the third quarter of 2025, with an expected year-on-year growth of approximately 4% [1] - The likelihood of achieving an average growth rate of 4% this year is considered low [1] Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate is expected to remain near the inflation target for an extended period, projected to stay below 3% year-on-year by the end of 2025 [1] - Core inflation, although on a downward trend, is anticipated to remain at a high level due to ongoing cost pressures in the service sector [1] Interest Rates - The report forecasts a further decrease in interest rates by 100 basis points in 2026, targeting a rate of 3.5% [1]

Group 1 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Russia's GDP growth forecast for 2025 down to 0.6%, while maintaining a 1% growth forecast for 2026 [1] - Compared to the IMF's July forecast, the GDP growth prediction for Russia this year has been lowered by 0.3 percentage points [1] - Russia's economic growth was 4.3% last year, and the IMF had previously estimated a 4.1% growth rate for this year in April [1] Group 2 - The adjustment in the GDP growth forecast for this year is attributed to recent data indicating that Russian budget expenditures are concentrated in the fourth quarter of 2024, leading to an increase in the 2024 GDP growth forecast from 4.1% to 4.3% [1] - The IMF predicts that the inflation rate in Russia will reach 9% in 2025, decreasing to 5.2% by 2026 [1] - The unemployment rate in Russia was estimated at 2.5% last year, expected to decrease to 2.4% this year, and is projected to rise to 3.1% in the future [1] Group 3 - The Russian Ministry of Economic Development has also revised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 down from 2.5% to 1%, and for 2026 from 2.4% to 1.3% [2]

Group 1 - The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has downgraded Slovenia's GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 1.9% to 0.7%, marking the third consecutive downgrade [1] - Slovenia's economic growth significantly slowed in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.1%, compared to 1.7% in the same period last year, primarily due to declines in investment and industrial production [1] - Despite a negative growth in the first quarter, household consumption was stimulated by real wage growth and low unemployment, leading to enhanced investment activity in the second quarter [1] Group 2 - The EBRD predicts that international financial institution investment growth will be the main driver for Slovenia's economic recovery in 2026 [1] - Slovenia, as a highly open economy, is indirectly affected by the U.S. tariffs on EU and Swiss goods, which poses uncertainties for trade policies [1] - The EBRD forecasts an average growth rate of 2.4% for Central and Eastern European countries this year, with Croatia and Poland expected to have the highest growth rates, both projected to exceed 3% this year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market is experiencing fluctuations with various currencies showing mixed trends against the US dollar, while key economic indicators and central bank decisions are influencing market sentiment. Group 1: US Dollar Developments - The Trump administration plans to appeal a court ruling regarding Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook [2] - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming remarks on the job market may indicate future policy directions [2] - US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that if President Trump views inflation as a problem, he would be open to interest rate hikes [2] - The White House's National Economic Council Director Hassett anticipates economic growth rates exceeding 3% [2] - Wells Fargo Investment Institute raised its 2025 US GDP growth forecast to 2%, up from 1.3% [2] Group 2: Non-USD Currency Movements - The euro against the US dollar reached a new high of 1.1878, the highest since September 2021 [3] - The European Central Bank (ECB) remains cautious, with Governing Council member Escrivá emphasizing the need for flexibility amid ongoing uncertainty [4] - The ECB's Vice President Guindos stated that current interest rates are appropriate [5] Group 3: Canadian and Japanese Currency Insights - The swap market indicates a 93% probability of the Bank of Canada cutting rates, up from 87% prior to the CPI release [5] - Japan's auction of 20-year government bonds saw a subscription rate of 4.00, the highest since 2020 [5] - The offshore Chinese yuan broke the 7.10 mark against the US dollar for the first time since November of the previous year [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The GBP/USD is currently above the 200-period SMA at approximately 1.3480, indicating long-term bullish dominance [8] - The USD/JPY is fluctuating between the Bollinger Bands' middle and lower bands, with potential for a short-term bullish reversal if it breaks above the middle band [9] - The EUR/USD has a key support level at 1.1850, which may trigger buying interest if tested again [9] - The USD/CHF is currently below both the 50-period and 100-period SMAs, indicating short-term bearish momentum [9] - The AUD/USD has a significant support level at 0.6630, which could attract buying interest if approached [10] - The USD/CAD has a critical support level at 1.3680, which may also draw market attention if tested [10] Group 5: Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data releases include US housing starts and building permits at 20:30, followed by the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision and a press conference at 21:45 [11] - The Federal Reserve's FOMC will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook at 02:00, followed by a press conference by Chair Powell at 02:30 [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the Euro is trading around 1.16 against the US dollar, with a slight increase of 0.01% as of the latest update [1] - Barclays economists expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to maintain the deposit rate at 2.0% on September 11 to address changing risk considerations [1] - The ECB is likely to reiterate that the risks to growth prospects are skewed to the downside, particularly due to the negative demand shock from US tariffs, although the risk of EU retaliation has dissipated [1] Group 2 - The ECB may revise its average GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 0.9% to 1.2%, while lowering the 2026 forecast from 1.1% to 1.0% [1] - The daily chart shows the Euro to USD Bollinger Bands with the middle band at 1.1669, indicating the price is testing around this level [2] - The MACD indicates limited momentum with a slight convergence of the lines near the zero axis, suggesting a sideways trend [2]

Core Viewpoint - HSBC has raised its GDP growth forecasts for China for the years 2025 and 2026, indicating a more optimistic outlook for the Chinese economy [1] Group 1 - HSBC's new forecast suggests a stronger recovery trajectory for China's economy, reflecting improved economic conditions and policy support [1] - The adjustment in GDP growth predictions highlights HSBC's confidence in China's economic resilience and potential for growth in the coming years [1]

Group 1 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts Poland's GDP growth rate to reach 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, consistent with earlier predictions [1] - The Eurozone's GDP growth is expected to slightly improve, with a projected increase of 1% in 2025, largely driven by Ireland's significant contribution [1] - Ireland is anticipated to account for half of the Eurozone's growth due to record-high pharmaceutical exports to the United States, supported by increased inventory and new factory constructions [1] Group 2 - Without Ireland's contribution, the Eurozone's GDP growth for this year is expected to be only 0.1 percentage points [1] - The IMF also projects the Eurozone's GDP growth to reach 1.2% in 2026, maintaining previous forecasts [1]

Core Viewpoint - Barclays has revised its GDP growth forecast for the Eurozone in 2025 from 0.8% to 1.1% [1] Economic Outlook - The upward adjustment in GDP growth indicates a more optimistic economic outlook for the Eurozone [1]

Group 1: Core Views - The US dollar index is positioned above the 50-day EMA, which has become an immediate support level [1] - The Australian core inflation cooling supports the Reserve Bank of Australia's potential rate cut in August [3] - Deutsche Bank retracts its prediction for further rate cuts by the European Central Bank, betting on a rate hike by the end of 2026 [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The IMF raised the US GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 1.8% to 1.9% [2] - Goldman Sachs upgraded its growth forecast for the Eurozone, expecting a 1.1% growth rate in 2025, up from a previous estimate of 1% [3] - Chile's central bank lowered the benchmark interest rate to 4.75% from 5.0% [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The US dollar index (DXY) maintains a steady upward channel, with prices above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating a bullish trend [4] - The EUR/USD pair is expected to continue its downward trend, with the 20-day SMA acting as dynamic resistance around 1.1690 [4] - The AUD/USD pair faces immediate resistance at the 0.6550 level, with potential upward movement if it breaks the 0.6600 mark [4] Group 4: Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data to be released includes the US ADP employment numbers and Q2 GDP annualized rate [5][6] - The Canadian central bank will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy report [5][6]