Group 1 - The Bank of Korea projects a GDP growth rate of 2.0% for 2026 and 1.8% for 2027 [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for 2026 is expected to be 2.2%, an increase from the previous forecast of 2.1% made in November of last year [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Malaysia's service sector growth momentum is likely to continue into the first quarter, driven by government cash aid programs, festive spending, and tourism activities [1] - The GDP growth forecast for 2026 has been revised upward from 4.4% to 4.5%, reflecting stronger momentum entering the first quarter, although this impact is partially offset by a higher base in the second half of the year [1] - The economists maintain their view that Bank Negara Malaysia will keep the interest rate unchanged at 2.75% by the end of 2026, as a moderate inflation outlook provides room for this decision [1]

Core Insights - The Eurasian Development Fund predicts an average annual GDP growth rate of approximately 6% for Kyrgyzstan from 2026 to 2028, driven by accelerated investments in the industrial sector and an expansion of domestic housing construction plans [1] Economic Growth Factors - Industrial sector investments are expected to accelerate, contributing positively to the construction indicators in Kyrgyzstan [1] - The expansion of domestic housing construction plans is anticipated to maintain high construction indicators [1] Trade and Domestic Demand - The contribution of trade to economic growth is expected to gradually decrease due to a decline in transit transportation and domestic demand [1]

Economic Growth - The U.S. economy experienced a significant growth of 4.3% annualized in Q3 2025, surpassing expectations of 3.3% and increasing from 3.8% in Q2 2025, marking the strongest growth since Q3 2023 [2] - Historical trends indicate that strong GDP quarters are often followed by slower growth, as seen after the 4.7% growth in Q3 2023, which dropped to 3.4% in Q4 2023 and further to 0.8% in Q1 2024 [3] Consumer Behavior and Economic Indicators - Consumer spending remains robust, driven by the wealth effect from rising asset prices, while inflation is declining but still elevated, contributing to a "Goldilocks scenario" for the economy [4] - Weak hiring trends in industries reliant on immigrant labor and softening retail sales in border states suggest potential challenges ahead [6] Prediction Markets and Future Growth Expectations - Prediction markets indicate a 20% chance of U.S. growth between 2% and 2.5% in Q4 2025, up from 17%, while the probability of growth below 1% increased to 14% [7] - The likelihood of growth exceeding 3.5% in Q4 2025 has decreased to 10%, down three percentage points, reflecting a fading conviction in another strong quarter [7] Recession and Monetary Policy Outlook - Despite the strong GDP data, the probability of a recession in 2026 remains stable at around 28%, having previously decreased from nearly 35% [8] - Traders anticipate multiple rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with a 23% probability of three cuts in 2026 and a 22% chance of two cuts, indicating a dovish outlook on monetary policy [9]

Group 1 - Hang Seng Bank has raised its GDP growth forecast for Hong Kong to 3.2% for this year, with an expected growth of 2.5% for next year [1] - The bank notes that the positive effects of foreign trade are diminishing, and the "export rush" is weakening, leading to a slowdown in growth next year due to high base effects [1] - Local demand is showing signs of a preliminary rebound, and the expansion of recovery is expected to boost business and consumer confidence [1] Group 2 - Hong Kong has benefited from increased global liquidity this year, but the nearing end of the interest rate cut cycle by major and regional central banks poses certain risks [1] - The bank anticipates that if the new Federal Reserve chair adopts a dovish stance, the Fed may lower interest rates twice next year, which could lead to a slight decline in Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR), positively impacting the real estate market [1]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Bank's economic research department has raised Hong Kong's GDP growth forecast for this year to 3.2% and expects growth to reach 2.5% next year [1] - The bank indicates that the positive effects of foreign trade are gradually diminishing, and the driving force from "export grabbing" is weakening, along with a high base effect, which will lead to a slowdown in economic growth next year compared to this year [1] - Local demand is expected to continue its initial rebound trend, and the expansion of economic recovery is key to stimulating business and consumer confidence [1] Group 2 - Hong Kong has benefited from increased global liquidity this year, but the end of the rate-cutting cycle by major central banks may pose certain risks [1] - The bank anticipates that the Federal Reserve will cut rates twice next year, provided that the stance of Powell's successor is dovish [1] - The Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) may slightly decline, positively impacting the property market atmosphere [1]

Core Viewpoint - Fitch maintains Poland's GDP growth forecast at 3.2% for 2026 and 2.9% for 2027, expecting a 25 basis point rate cut by the monetary policy committee in both years [1] Group 1: Economic Growth and Investment - The implementation of projects funded by the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) has been slow, leading to only a moderate recovery in investment activity so far [1] - RRF-funded investments are expected to have a greater impact on economic growth in 2026 [1] - Bank loan growth continues to improve, driven by the corporate sector [1] Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation has been lower than expected, with the overall inflation rate dropping to 2.4% in November [1] - Core inflation is also gradually decreasing, reaching 3% in October [1] Group 3: Credit Ratings - Among the three major rating agencies, Moody's has the highest credit rating for Poland at "A2" [1] - Fitch and S&P have rated Poland at "A-", one level lower than Moody's [1] - In the recent fall rating adjustments, Fitch and Moody's changed Poland's rating outlook from stable to negative, while S&P maintained a stable outlook [1]

Group 1 - The UK Office for Budget Responsibility predicts a GDP growth of 1.5% for 2025, an increase from the previous forecast of 1.0% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea is expected to revise its economic outlook for next year, with growth rate predictions adjusted to between 1.8% and 1.9% based on strong exports and recovering domestic demand [1] Group 1: Economic Growth Predictions - Experts predict an increase in the Bank of Korea's economic growth forecast for this year from 0.9% to 1.0% and for next year from 1.6% to between 1.8% and 1.9% [1] - The Bank of Korea's governor, Lee Chang-yong, indicated the possibility of raising next year's GDP growth forecast during a Bloomberg interview [1] Group 2: Recent Economic Performance - The economic growth rate for the third quarter reached 1.2%, driven by improved exports and a recovery in consumption [1] - Even with a projected fourth-quarter growth rate of -0.1%, the annual growth rate could still reach 1.0% [1] Group 3: Comparison with Other Forecasts - If the Bank of Korea raises its forecast to 1.8% to 1.9%, it will align with predictions from the Korea Development Institute, the International Monetary Fund, and major investment banks, which have an average forecast of 1.9% [1]

Group 1 - Barclays has raised South Korea's GDP growth forecast for 2026 from 1.7% to 2.1% due to the recovery in the semiconductor industry [1] - The forecast for South Korea's current account surplus in 2026 has been increased from 8.4 billion to 11 billion USD [1] - Economist Bum Ki Son stated that South Korea's international balance of payments is expected to show its strongest performance in 15 years, driven by foreign portfolio inflows [1] Group 2 - It is anticipated that the Bank of Korea will only lower interest rates once more, potentially in November, bringing the terminal rate of the current easing cycle down to 2.25% [1] - Previously, it was predicted that there would be two more rate cuts, one in November and another in February 2026 [1]