The U.S. economy just delivered a blockbuster third quarter, but traders are already betting that the pace will start to cool sharply.SPY ETF is trading near record highs. Check live chart here.Prediction markets reacted quickly after the stronger-than-expected growth data, raising wagers on slower growth in the fourth quarter and potentially into 2026 despite the headline surprise.Gross domestic product expanded at a 4.3% annualized pace in the third quarter of 2025, crushing expectations of 3.3% and accel ...

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【12月18日恒生银行上调今年香港GDP增长预测至3.2%】12月18日，恒生银行研究部上调今年香港本 地生产总值(GDP)增长预测至3.2%，预期明年增长可达2.5%。 该行指出，外贸顺风效应渐退，"抢出 口"驱动减弱，高基数效应会使明年增长较今年放缓。不过，本地需求延续初步反弹趋势，复苏范围扩 大能激发企业和消费者信心。 香港今年受益于全球流动性增加，但主要及区内央行降息周期临近尾 声，或有一定风险。该行预期，若鲍威尔继任人立场偏鸽，美联储明年会再降息两次，港元拆息 (HIBOR)或小幅回落，利好楼市气氛。 ...

恒生 银行经济研究部将今年香港本地生产总值(GDP)增长预测上调至3.2%，并预期明年增长可达 2.5%。该行指，外贸顺风效应逐步减退，"抢出口"带来的驱动作用减弱，加上高基数效应，将令明年经 济增长较今年有所放缓。然而，本地需求将延续其初步反弹趋势，经济复苏范围的扩大是展现"动物精 神"，激发企业及消费者信心的关键。香港今年受惠于全球流动性增加，但各大主要及区内央行的降息 周期陆续进入尾声，这可能产生一定风险。该行又预期美联储明年会再减息两次，但前提是鲍威尔的继 任人立场偏鸽。港元拆息(HIBOR)或会随之小幅回落，为楼市气氛带来正面影响。 ...

惠誉称，由于欧盟RRF(Recovery and Resilience Facility)基金资助的项目实施缓慢，迄今为止投资活动仅 有温和复苏。预计RRF基金资助的投资将在2026年对经济增长产生更大的影响。在企业部门的推动下， 银行贷款增长也在持续改善。另一方面，通胀低于预期，11月份整体通胀率降至2.4%。核心通胀也逐 步下降，10月份达到3%。在三大评级机构中，穆迪给予波兰的信用评级最高，为"A2"。惠誉和标普给 予波兰的评级为"A-"，比穆迪低一个等级。在秋季评级调整中，惠誉和穆迪将波兰的评级展望从稳定调 整为负面，而标普则维持了稳定的评级展望。 波通社12月4日报道，根据评级机构惠誉的季度报告，该机构维持对波兰2026年GDP增长3.2%和2027年 GDP增长2.9%的预测，并预计波兰货币政策委员会将在2026年和2027年各降息25个基点。 ...

（文章来源：第一财经） 据外媒报道，英国预算责任办公室预测2025年GDP增长1.5%，此前预测增长1.0%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea is expected to revise its economic outlook for next year, with growth rate predictions adjusted to between 1.8% and 1.9% based on strong exports and recovering domestic demand [1] Group 1: Economic Growth Predictions - Experts predict an increase in the Bank of Korea's economic growth forecast for this year from 0.9% to 1.0% and for next year from 1.6% to between 1.8% and 1.9% [1] - The Bank of Korea's governor, Lee Chang-yong, indicated the possibility of raising next year's GDP growth forecast during a Bloomberg interview [1] Group 2: Recent Economic Performance - The economic growth rate for the third quarter reached 1.2%, driven by improved exports and a recovery in consumption [1] - Even with a projected fourth-quarter growth rate of -0.1%, the annual growth rate could still reach 1.0% [1] Group 3: Comparison with Other Forecasts - If the Bank of Korea raises its forecast to 1.8% to 1.9%, it will align with predictions from the Korea Development Institute, the International Monetary Fund, and major investment banks, which have an average forecast of 1.9% [1]

Group 1 - Barclays has raised South Korea's GDP growth forecast for 2026 from 1.7% to 2.1% due to the recovery in the semiconductor industry [1] - The forecast for South Korea's current account surplus in 2026 has been increased from 8.4 billion to 11 billion USD [1] - Economist Bum Ki Son stated that South Korea's international balance of payments is expected to show its strongest performance in 15 years, driven by foreign portfolio inflows [1] Group 2 - It is anticipated that the Bank of Korea will only lower interest rates once more, potentially in November, bringing the terminal rate of the current easing cycle down to 2.25% [1] - Previously, it was predicted that there would be two more rate cuts, one in November and another in February 2026 [1]

Core Insights - Bank Pekao has revised Poland's GDP growth forecast for 2025 down from 4.0% to 3.6% while increasing the 2026 forecast from 3.7% to 4.0% [1] - Economists predict that economic growth will accelerate in the third quarter of 2025, with an expected year-on-year growth of approximately 4% [1] - The likelihood of achieving an average growth rate of 4% this year is considered low [1] Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate is expected to remain near the inflation target for an extended period, projected to stay below 3% year-on-year by the end of 2025 [1] - Core inflation, although on a downward trend, is anticipated to remain at a high level due to ongoing cost pressures in the service sector [1] Interest Rates - The report forecasts a further decrease in interest rates by 100 basis points in 2026, targeting a rate of 3.5% [1]

Group 1 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Russia's GDP growth forecast for 2025 down to 0.6%, while maintaining a 1% growth forecast for 2026 [1] - Compared to the IMF's July forecast, the GDP growth prediction for Russia this year has been lowered by 0.3 percentage points [1] - Russia's economic growth was 4.3% last year, and the IMF had previously estimated a 4.1% growth rate for this year in April [1] Group 2 - The adjustment in the GDP growth forecast for this year is attributed to recent data indicating that Russian budget expenditures are concentrated in the fourth quarter of 2024, leading to an increase in the 2024 GDP growth forecast from 4.1% to 4.3% [1] - The IMF predicts that the inflation rate in Russia will reach 9% in 2025, decreasing to 5.2% by 2026 [1] - The unemployment rate in Russia was estimated at 2.5% last year, expected to decrease to 2.4% this year, and is projected to rise to 3.1% in the future [1] Group 3 - The Russian Ministry of Economic Development has also revised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 down from 2.5% to 1%, and for 2026 from 2.4% to 1.3% [2]

Group 1 - The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has downgraded Slovenia's GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 1.9% to 0.7%, marking the third consecutive downgrade [1] - Slovenia's economic growth significantly slowed in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.1%, compared to 1.7% in the same period last year, primarily due to declines in investment and industrial production [1] - Despite a negative growth in the first quarter, household consumption was stimulated by real wage growth and low unemployment, leading to enhanced investment activity in the second quarter [1] Group 2 - The EBRD predicts that international financial institution investment growth will be the main driver for Slovenia's economic recovery in 2026 [1] - Slovenia, as a highly open economy, is indirectly affected by the U.S. tariffs on EU and Swiss goods, which poses uncertainties for trade policies [1] - The EBRD forecasts an average growth rate of 2.4% for Central and Eastern European countries this year, with Croatia and Poland expected to have the highest growth rates, both projected to exceed 3% this year [2]