韩国央行预计2026年GDP增速为2.0%，预计2027年GDP增速为1.8%。预计2026年CPI在2.2%，去年11月 预测为2.1%。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...

联昌国际经济学家Chew Khai Yen和Michelle Chia报告称，在政府现金援助计划、节庆支出和旅游活动 的推动下，马来西亚的服务业增长势头可能会延续至第一季度。他们将2026年GDP增长预测从此前的 4.4%上调至4.5%，这反映了进入第一季度的势头更为强劲，但其影响部分被下半年的基数较高所抵 消。这些经济学家维持其看法，认为马来西亚央行到2026年底将维持2.75%的利率不变，因为温和的通 胀前景为按兵不动提供了空间。 ...

据吉尔吉斯斯坦塔扎别克新闻网1月19日报道，欧亚稳定发展基金预测，2026-2028年，得益于工业 领域投资加速和本国住房建设计划扩大，吉建筑指标将保持高位，但因过境运输和国内需求下滑，贸易 对经济增长贡献逐步降低。预测期内，吉年均GDP增长率约为6%。 （原标题：欧亚稳定发展基金预测吉未来3年GDP年均增长6%） ...

Economic Growth - The U.S. economy experienced a significant growth of 4.3% annualized in Q3 2025, surpassing expectations of 3.3% and increasing from 3.8% in Q2 2025, marking the strongest growth since Q3 2023 [2] - Historical trends indicate that strong GDP quarters are often followed by slower growth, as seen after the 4.7% growth in Q3 2023, which dropped to 3.4% in Q4 2023 and further to 0.8% in Q1 2024 [3] Consumer Behavior and Economic Indicators - Consumer spending remains robust, driven by the wealth effect from rising asset prices, while inflation is declining but still elevated, contributing to a "Goldilocks scenario" for the economy [4] - Weak hiring trends in industries reliant on immigrant labor and softening retail sales in border states suggest potential challenges ahead [6] Prediction Markets and Future Growth Expectations - Prediction markets indicate a 20% chance of U.S. growth between 2% and 2.5% in Q4 2025, up from 17%, while the probability of growth below 1% increased to 14% [7] - The likelihood of growth exceeding 3.5% in Q4 2025 has decreased to 10%, down three percentage points, reflecting a fading conviction in another strong quarter [7] Recession and Monetary Policy Outlook - Despite the strong GDP data, the probability of a recession in 2026 remains stable at around 28%, having previously decreased from nearly 35% [8] - Traders anticipate multiple rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with a 23% probability of three cuts in 2026 and a 22% chance of two cuts, indicating a dovish outlook on monetary policy [9]

Group 1 - Hang Seng Bank has raised its GDP growth forecast for Hong Kong to 3.2% for this year, with an expected growth of 2.5% for next year [1] - The bank notes that the positive effects of foreign trade are diminishing, and the "export rush" is weakening, leading to a slowdown in growth next year due to high base effects [1] - Local demand is showing signs of a preliminary rebound, and the expansion of recovery is expected to boost business and consumer confidence [1] Group 2 - Hong Kong has benefited from increased global liquidity this year, but the nearing end of the interest rate cut cycle by major and regional central banks poses certain risks [1] - The bank anticipates that if the new Federal Reserve chair adopts a dovish stance, the Fed may lower interest rates twice next year, which could lead to a slight decline in Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR), positively impacting the real estate market [1]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Bank's economic research department has raised Hong Kong's GDP growth forecast for this year to 3.2% and expects growth to reach 2.5% next year [1] - The bank indicates that the positive effects of foreign trade are gradually diminishing, and the driving force from "export grabbing" is weakening, along with a high base effect, which will lead to a slowdown in economic growth next year compared to this year [1] - Local demand is expected to continue its initial rebound trend, and the expansion of economic recovery is key to stimulating business and consumer confidence [1] Group 2 - Hong Kong has benefited from increased global liquidity this year, but the end of the rate-cutting cycle by major central banks may pose certain risks [1] - The bank anticipates that the Federal Reserve will cut rates twice next year, provided that the stance of Powell's successor is dovish [1] - The Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) may slightly decline, positively impacting the property market atmosphere [1]

Core Viewpoint - Fitch maintains Poland's GDP growth forecast at 3.2% for 2026 and 2.9% for 2027, expecting a 25 basis point rate cut by the monetary policy committee in both years [1] Group 1: Economic Growth and Investment - The implementation of projects funded by the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) has been slow, leading to only a moderate recovery in investment activity so far [1] - RRF-funded investments are expected to have a greater impact on economic growth in 2026 [1] - Bank loan growth continues to improve, driven by the corporate sector [1] Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation has been lower than expected, with the overall inflation rate dropping to 2.4% in November [1] - Core inflation is also gradually decreasing, reaching 3% in October [1] Group 3: Credit Ratings - Among the three major rating agencies, Moody's has the highest credit rating for Poland at "A2" [1] - Fitch and S&P have rated Poland at "A-", one level lower than Moody's [1] - In the recent fall rating adjustments, Fitch and Moody's changed Poland's rating outlook from stable to negative, while S&P maintained a stable outlook [1]

Group 1 - The UK Office for Budget Responsibility predicts a GDP growth of 1.5% for 2025, an increase from the previous forecast of 1.0% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea is expected to revise its economic outlook for next year, with growth rate predictions adjusted to between 1.8% and 1.9% based on strong exports and recovering domestic demand [1] Group 1: Economic Growth Predictions - Experts predict an increase in the Bank of Korea's economic growth forecast for this year from 0.9% to 1.0% and for next year from 1.6% to between 1.8% and 1.9% [1] - The Bank of Korea's governor, Lee Chang-yong, indicated the possibility of raising next year's GDP growth forecast during a Bloomberg interview [1] Group 2: Recent Economic Performance - The economic growth rate for the third quarter reached 1.2%, driven by improved exports and a recovery in consumption [1] - Even with a projected fourth-quarter growth rate of -0.1%, the annual growth rate could still reach 1.0% [1] Group 3: Comparison with Other Forecasts - If the Bank of Korea raises its forecast to 1.8% to 1.9%, it will align with predictions from the Korea Development Institute, the International Monetary Fund, and major investment banks, which have an average forecast of 1.9% [1]

Group 1 - Barclays has raised South Korea's GDP growth forecast for 2026 from 1.7% to 2.1% due to the recovery in the semiconductor industry [1] - The forecast for South Korea's current account surplus in 2026 has been increased from 8.4 billion to 11 billion USD [1] - Economist Bum Ki Son stated that South Korea's international balance of payments is expected to show its strongest performance in 15 years, driven by foreign portfolio inflows [1] Group 2 - It is anticipated that the Bank of Korea will only lower interest rates once more, potentially in November, bringing the terminal rate of the current easing cycle down to 2.25% [1] - Previously, it was predicted that there would be two more rate cuts, one in November and another in February 2026 [1]