18 May 2025 | 3:06AM EDT Oil Comment: Maintaining Our Cautious Oil Price Forecast as Higher Iran Supply Assumption Offsets Higher GDP Daan Struyven +1(212)357-4172 | daan.struyven@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby +1(646)446-3905 | yulia.grigsby@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC n We are maintaining our below-the-forwards Brent/WTI oil price forecasts of $60/56 for the remainder of 2025 and $56/52 in 2026 as the price drag from a higher Iran supply assumption and from slightly higher than ...

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Robin Xing Chief China Economist Robin.Xing@morganstanley.com +852 2848-6511 Jenny Zheng, CFA Economist Jenny.L.Zheng@morganstanley.com +852 3963-4015 May 11, 2025 09:41 PM GMT Investor Presentation | Asia Pacific M Foundation Growth Pain Beneath the Surface Related reports: Growth Pain Beneath the Surface (9 May 2025) Direct Tariff Impact Mitigated by Rerouting (9 May 2025) For important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report. M Possible ...

May 1, 2025 03:54 PM GMT China Musings | Asia Pacific How Beijing's Stimulus May Cushion Tariff Shock 2Q growth could slow one percentage point as tariffs bite. We expect Beijing to navigate the challenges with cautious and uneven stimulus policies: still relying on investment in emerging sectors and urban renewal, while gradually shifting policy towards consumption over the medium term. Tariffs have reached prohibitive levels and may not get much higher. Investors are focused on two things. Exhibit 2 : Wha ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the industry, with GDP growth tracking below 4.5% year-on-year for 2Q 2025, down from 5.4% in 1Q 2025, primarily due to escalating tariffs impacting trade with the US [1][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant trade impacts from the 125% reciprocal US tariffs on China, leading to a sharp decline in shipments to the US and a notable drop in China's container throughput and freight shipping prices [2][10]. - Consumer sentiment is weakening, with rising household concerns over jobs and salaries, resulting in reduced consumption appetite and a cooling property market [3][10]. - The report suggests that while tariff de-escalation may occur in the next 1-2 months, achieving a durable resolution remains challenging due to the complexity of bilateral issues [5][8]. Summary by Sections Economic Impact - 2Q GDP growth is projected to slow significantly, with a forecast below 4.5% year-on-year, attributed to the adverse effects of US tariffs [1][10]. - The logistics data indicates a 64% week-on-week decline in ocean container bookings from China to the US in early April 2025 [2]. Consumer Sentiment - The AlphaWise Consumer Pulse Survey indicates initial signs of a secondary hit from US tariffs, with increased household concerns over job security and reduced consumption [3][19]. - Year-on-year sales of online home appliances and passenger cars have softened, and secondary housing sales have moderated more than seasonal trends would suggest [3][27]. Tariff Analysis - The report identifies low tariff elasticity for 30-40% of China's export products to the US, particularly in consumer electronics, which constitute 22% of China's exports to the US [4][21]. - The expectation is that US tariffs on China could be reduced to 60% by the end of June 2025, contingent on successful trade negotiations [5][8]. Policy Response - The report anticipates that Beijing will implement a front-loaded Rmb2 trillion stimulus package in 2Q 2025, with an additional Rmb1-1.5 trillion supplementary fiscal package expected in the second half of the year [10][32]. - As of April 2025, 36% of this year's government bond quota has been utilized, compared to an average of 20% in the past five years, indicating a proactive policy approach [10][29].

April 14, 2025 09:00 PM GMT Asia Economics | Asia Pacific M Idea The Viewpoint: A Sharp, Synchronous Slowdown Even after exemptions kick in, the weighted average tariff on Asia has jumped from 4.8% in Jan-25 to 43.8%. We see a sharp step down in growth from 2Q25. Tariffs and tariff-related uncertainty are likely to persist for longer, weighing on trade, corporate confidence, capex, and the growth outlook. Key Takeaways In this report, we are lowering our growth projections for Asia. We also highlight where ...

The US raised "reciprocal tariffs" on China to 125% on April 9, but announced a 90-day pause on such tariffs on other economies, replacing it with a broad 10% tariff hike. The "reciprocal tariffs" is in addition to the 20% tariff hikes (related to fentanyl control) that have already been implemented by the Trump administration since early February this year, and on top of the tariffs added during the first Trump administration and Biden era. China has retaliated with similar tariff hikes on US goods since t ...

SÃO PAULO, April 16, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- XP Inc. (Nasdaq: XP), a leading, technology-driven platform and a trusted provider of low-fee financial products and services in Brazil, released a new research report from which reveals that Brazil's newly launched payroll-deductible loan program for private sector workers is set to inject a significant boost into the country's economy - adding an estimated 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth, or nearly BRL 70 billion (approx. USD 11.7 billion) in annualized terms. ...

ab 15 April 2025 Global Research China Economic Perspectives China Economic Outlook: Bracing For More Tariffs More US tariffs on China and China retaliated Electronics imports are excluded from "reciprocal tariffs" for now On April 11, US CBP posted a notice that exempted smartphones, computers, semiconductors and other electronics goods from the US reciprocal tariffs, which we think also includes those related imports from China. These latest exemptions added an estimated $64 billion of US imports from Chi ...