Market Overview - The current market is experiencing record highs with the S&P and NASDAQ reaching new peaks, alongside gold prices also hitting record levels [1] - The economic backdrop remains strong with ongoing growth in GDP and other areas, while inflation has decreased to 2.9% from higher levels [3][4] - Liquidity in the market is robust, supported by significant deficit spending and a large M2 money supply [4][5] Investment Strategy - The investment approach focuses on three main factors: liquidity, inflation, and growth, which guide portfolio decisions [3] - There is a shift towards incorporating both growth and value stocks in the portfolio, with a particular emphasis on recovery value stocks [7][8] Stock Picks - **Dow Chemical**: Selected for its significant price drop (from around $60 to $24), strong balance sheet, and high dividend yield of 5%, making it a recovery value stock [7][8] - **Circle**: Important in the crypto and stablecoin space, with potential for growth as government support increases. The stock has dropped from $250 to $120, presenting a buying opportunity [10][12] - **Bullish**: Recently listed and currently trading lower, it has potential due to its association with notable figures in the industry and its role in crypto trading [15][17] - **Space Mobile**: Competing with Starlink, it has secured contracts and FCC approvals, showing growth potential despite being capital intensive [22][24] - **GitLab**: Positioned as a cost-efficient platform for enterprises, it is expected to benefit from the rising demand for AI software development, despite competition from GitHub [26][29]

higher. The Dow's on pace for its first positive week in three. And the S&P and Nasdaq all looking for their best week since early August.Joining us with her outlook this morning is City Wealth Chief Investment Officer Kate Moore who joins us here at Post 9. It's good to see you. Happy Friday. Yeah, happy Friday, Carl.Are you surprised September's been as strong as it has. I have I am a little surprised actually because it felt like we came into the end of August, you know, close to peak levels, peak optimi ...

Economic Overview - JP Morgan's Jamie Dimon indicates that the latest jobs data shows a weakening economy, prompting investor focus on an upcoming inflation report [1] - Real GDP growth year-to-date is at 1.3% annualized, with non-farm payroll job creation growing at 0.5% [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) suggests that wholesale prices are not surging as much as feared, indicating a benign inflation environment [1][5] Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy - The PPI tends to lead the Consumer Price Index (CPI), suggesting that current inflation pressures may not persist [2] - With CPI and PPI inflation rates around 2.7%, the Federal Reserve may need to shift focus from inflation to supporting economic growth [3][9] - The market is beginning to recognize the need for the Fed to respond to growth rather than inflation [6] Labor Market and Productivity - The job market is showing signs of decline, with real retail sales flat year-to-date [6] - The tech industry, particularly in information processing, has seen employment flat or declining as productivity increases [8] - Oracle's anticipated growth in AI servers may indicate a shift towards more productivity, potentially leading to a weaker job market in the near term [7][9]

Fiscal Policy & Economic Growth - The analysis suggests tariffs are running at an annual rate between $400 billion and $500 billion, potentially improving the deficit, but real GDP growth is considered the key to significantly reducing the deficit as a percentage of GDP [1] - The report anticipates real GDP growth will surprise on the high side of expectations later in the year and into 2026, driven by innovation platforms like robotics, energy storage, AI, multiomic sequencing, and blockchain technology, all catalyzed by AI [1] - The analysis highlights deregulation, particularly in crypto, AI, and nuclear energy, as a significant factor for economic growth, with tax changes encouraging manufacturing and innovation through accelerated depreciation schedules and full expensing of equipment, R&D, and software [1] Inflation & Monetary Policy - The report indicates that while inflation may seem stuck in the 2% to 3% range, innovation-driven productivity gains could lead to deflation in the coming years [2] - The analysis points out that M2 money supply growth has significantly dropped compared to the COVID boom, and the velocity of money is declining, potentially diffusing inflationary pressures [2] - The yield curve, measured by the two-year Treasury yield relative to the three-month Treasury yield, indicates tight monetary policy, which is expected to have disinflationary or deflationary effects [3] - True inflation CPI is reported at 19%, even with tariffs factored in, and consumer inflation expectations are expected to decline [3] Market Indicators & Investment Strategy - The analysis notes that manufacturing has been contracting for the last three years, and services are not in great shape, signaling potential economic concerns [4] - The report highlights that AI-powered capital spending is increasing, supported by new tax rules, while the trade deficit is being addressed [5] - The analysis observes that pending home sales are deteriorating, and new home inventory is high, potentially leading to price cuts and impacting the CPI [5] - The report suggests that the return on investment in the US is expected to increase due to innovation, tax laws, and deregulation, potentially strengthening the dollar [5] - The analysis notes that corporate profits are healthy, but quality of earnings and harnessing new technologies will be crucial for future growth [5] - The report observes that commodity prices are going nowhere, and gold is breaking out to all-time highs relative to metals, possibly signaling deflationary concerns [5]

We can see the trade deficit widens to $78.3% billion from 60.2% billion. And that's largely because we imported a lot. 55.9% increase in imports. 3/10 percent increase in exports.Get back to that in a second. Jobless claims now to 37, a little bit higher than anticipated. The 230 was the forecast last week to 29.The continuing claims number 1,940,000. That's down from 1,000,009 44. So some mixed numbers on jobless claims.Probably don't add anything to the narrative of what's going on in the labor market. N ...

Meanwhile, Jolt job openings coming in lower than estimates, just below 7.2% million versus 7.4% million expected. Joining us to discuss is Joe Leavia, counselor to the Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant. It's good to have you, Joe.Welcome back. >> Thank you. Thank you, Sarah.>> So, is this just more evidence that labor market is is cooling. It's cooling a little bit sour, but if you look at the current rate, it's exactly where it was in the fourth quarter of 2019 when the Trump economy generated nearly three ...

Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)Real Final Sales to Private Domestic PurchasersPersonal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price IndexBrought onchain and powered by the Chainlink data standard. https://t.co/uyXxyfgUUQHoward Lutnick (@howardlutnick):The numbers are in: GDP growth has surged by 3.3%. And starting now, @CommerceGov has put America’s economic data on the blockchain for the first time ever.Under President Trump, the economy is strong, our workers are winning, and America is leading in crypto & econ ...

🚨 BREAKING 🚨🇺🇸 US REVISES Q2 GDP GROWTH UP TO 3.3%, THE BEST QUARTER SINCE Q3 2023.BULLISH FOR THE MARKETS !! ...

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 US revises Q2 GDP growth up to 3.3%, the best quarter since Q3 2023. https://t.co/2atSXfYtR5 ...

We're going to go right now to Jay Powell has become speaking and delivering this speech. >> In my remarks today, I will first address the current economic situation in the near term outlook for monetary policy. I will then turn to the results of our second public review of our monetary policy framework, as captured in the revised Statement on Longer Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy that we released today.When I appeared at this podium one year ago, the economy was at an inflection point. Our policy r ...