Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are expected to remain around $60 per barrel this year due to oversupply in the market, which counterbalances the effects of geopolitical tensions that may disrupt cargo shipments [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market is facing a potential oversupply situation, which is a significant factor influencing oil prices [1] - Geopolitical tensions are present but are not expected to have a strong enough impact to drive prices significantly higher [1] Group 2: Price Forecast - The forecast indicates that oil prices will likely stabilize near the $60 per barrel mark throughout the year [1]

Oil prices extended their gains on Thursday on the back of simmering geopolitical tensions and concerns about the loss of supply. Concerns about a possible US military strike on Iran, OPEC's fourth-l... ...

Core Viewpoint - The World Gold Council anticipates that lower interest rates, uncertainty in bond markets, and ongoing geopolitical risks will increase demand for gold this year [1] Group 1 - Lower interest rates are expected to contribute positively to gold demand [1] - Uncertainty in bond markets is likely to drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - Persistent geopolitical risks are anticipated to further bolster the appeal of gold among investors [1]

Core Insights - Norway's $2.2 trillion sovereign wealth fund has reduced its stakes in major US tech firms, including Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, and Alphabet, by the end of 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Investment Adjustments - The fund cut its stake in Nvidia from 1.32% to 1.26% and in Microsoft from 1.35% to 1.26%, while still maintaining these companies among its top five investments [2] - The total number of companies held by the fund decreased to 7,201, having exited over 1,000 companies in the last six months of 2025 [3] Group 2: Portfolio Strategy - The fund's strategy includes simplifying its portfolio, which led to exiting stock markets in Moldova, Iceland, Croatia, and Estonia, while adding investments in Jordan and Panama [3] - Approximately 53% of the fund's investments are concentrated in the US across all asset classes, with significant holdings in US Treasuries, Japanese government bonds, and German bunds [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Considerations - An advisory panel has indicated that the fund needs to enhance its preparedness for increasing geopolitical risks, including tariffs and financial sanctions [4] - The fund faced criticism from US Republican lawmakers for its decision to sell out of Caterpillar Inc. last year [4] Group 4: Fund Overview - Norges Bank Investment Management, which manages the fund, operates under a benchmark index set by Norway's finance ministry, limiting its scope for active investment moves [5] - The fund's investment portfolio includes equities, fixed income, real estate, and renewable infrastructure, all outside of Norway [5]

Bullish Chart Pattern Points to Higher TargetsThe daily chart shows that now that the top at $62.20 has been cleared, buyers have a clean shot at previous tops at $64.75 and $66.49.Winter Storm and Dollar Weakness Drive Prices HigherChart analysis also reveals that the market is now trading at its highest levels since late September in reaction to a severe winter storm that disrupted U.S. crude output, Reuters said. Meanwhile, the current plunge in the U.S. Dollar is also driving up demand for the dollar-de ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have reached a new high, surpassing $5,100, driven by central banks and investors seeking safety amid geopolitical risks and market volatility influenced by Trump [1] Group 1 - Gold prices extended their record-setting rally, indicating strong demand for safe-haven assets [1] - The surge in gold prices reflects a response to increasing geopolitical tensions and market instability [1] - Central banks are actively participating in the gold market, contributing to the upward price movement [1]

Market Overview - The market is experiencing a pattern similar to the previous year, with initial volatility due to tariff threats from US President Donald Trump, followed by a recovery as tensions ease [1][2] - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) showed a quick spike and subsequent retreat, indicating a familiar volatility pattern in the market [2] Investor Behavior - Investors are actively hedging against geopolitical risks affecting Chinese companies and potential disappointing earnings in the tech sector [3][5] - A significant number of puts were purchased on various ETFs, including 400,000 lots in the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) and 150,000 in the Xtrackers Harvest CSI China A-Shares ETF (ASHR) [4] Strategic Insights - There is a growing sentiment among strategists that investors are better positioned for the "TACO trade," which aims to manage volatility spikes more effectively [6] - Analysts suggest that Trump's approach may lead to market fluctuations, with investors using these moments to position themselves for potential upside or to short volatility [7]

Group 1: Geopolitical Factors Impacting Crude Prices - Unrest in Iran, OPEC's fourth-largest producer, is affecting crude prices as security forces have killed thousands of protesters, with potential disruptions to production if protests escalate [1] - The US is threatening to limit dollar supply for Iraqi oil sales, pressuring Iraq's politicians to exclude Iran-backed militia groups, which is also supporting crude prices [2] - The Kremlin's statement regarding unresolved territorial issues with Ukraine suggests ongoing conflict, maintaining restrictions on Russian crude and supporting oil prices [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Production Updates - Crude oil and gasoline prices rose sharply, with crude oil reaching a one-week high, supported by a decline in the dollar index and increased geopolitical risks [4] - Kazakhstan's oil production has been curtailed by 900,000 bpd due to power generator fires, impacting the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal [5] - The IEA has revised its 2026 global crude surplus estimate down to 3.7 million bpd, while the EIA raised its US crude production estimate to 13.59 million bpd [6] Group 3: Supply Chain and Inventory Insights - Crude oil stored on stationary tankers fell by 8.6% week-over-week, indicating strong demand, particularly from China, which is set to increase crude imports by 10% month-over-month [7] - OPEC+ plans to pause production increases in Q1 2026, with December production rising by 40,000 bpd to 29.03 million bpd, as they aim to restore previous cuts [8] - Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and tankers have limited Russia's crude oil export capabilities, further tightening global oil supplies [9] Group 4: US Oil Inventory and Rig Count - The EIA reported that US crude oil inventories are 2.5% below the seasonal 5-year average, while gasoline inventories are 5.0% above the average [10] - The number of active US oil rigs rose by 1 to 411, slightly above a 4.25-year low, indicating a decline in rig count over the past 2.5 years [11]

Core Viewpoint - Crude oil and gasoline prices are experiencing significant increases due to geopolitical tensions and a weaker dollar, with crude oil reaching a one-week high [1][2]. Group 1: Geopolitical Factors - The Kremlin's statement regarding unresolved territorial issues with Ukraine suggests that the Russia-Ukraine war will persist, maintaining restrictions on Russian crude and supporting higher oil prices [2]. - President Trump's renewed threats of military action against Iran, coupled with the deployment of US Navy vessels to the Middle East, are contributing to the rise in crude prices [3]. - Unrest in Iran, where security forces have killed thousands of protesters, poses a risk to crude production, as any escalation could disrupt the country's output of over 3 million barrels per day [4]. Group 2: Supply Chain Disruptions - Kazakhstan's Tengiz and Korolev oil fields are temporarily shut down due to power generator fires, resulting in a reduction of approximately 900,000 barrels per day of crude production that affects the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal [5].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have reached a new record, nearing the $5,000-an-ounce mark due to increased geopolitical risks, economic uncertainty, and a weaker U.S. dollar [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Gold futures in New York increased by 0.5% to $4,939.20 per troy ounce after peaking at $4,970 during the session [1] - Silver futures rose by 1.8% to $98.04 per ounce [1] Group 2: Market Drivers - The rally in gold prices is driven by FOMO (fear of missing out) and ongoing support from hard-asset drivers, especially following a slight easing in U.S.-EU tensions [2] - Central bank demand for gold remains strong, the U.S. dollar continues to weaken, and governments are issuing debt with uncertainty regarding long-term repayment [2]