4 August 2025 | 10:30AM EDT Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 2. Negative payroll revisions can occur for three reasons. First, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) receives responses from only about 60% of establishments in time for the first preliminary release and assumes they are representative of the remaining 40%. But in a weakening economy, late responders are more likely to be firms under economic pressure that are cutting jobs. Second, the seasonal factors are re-estimated with each ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The real estate sector is gaining attention from Wall Street as it becomes cheaper and shows signs of recovery, particularly in the homebuilding industry [1][2] - Unusual call options trading activity indicates a bullish sentiment among investors regarding the homebuilding sector [2] Group 2: Individual Company Insights - PulteGroup Inc. (PHM) is showing positive momentum with a recent net return of 11.7% over the past quarter, despite trading at 78% of its 52-week high [4][5] - UBS analyst John Lovallo has a Buy rating on PulteGroup, with a price target of $150 per share, suggesting a potential upside of 29% from current levels [7] - Lennar Corp. (LEN) is projected to experience significant EPS growth, with forecasts suggesting a 60% increase in EPS for Q4 2025, which could drive stock price appreciation [8][9] - Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) has seen a 9.1% decline in short interest, indicating a shift in sentiment towards bullishness, with a current trading price at 72% of its 52-week high [12][13] Group 3: Institutional Activity - Nordea Investment Management increased its holdings in PulteGroup by 2.8%, bringing their total investment to $94 million [5] - Jennison Associates added 11.2% to their Toll Brothers holdings, raising their position to $81.5 million, making them one of the largest institutional investors in the company [14]

I sat down with @jvisserlabs to discuss the AI helping companies beat earnings, BLS jobs revision, interest rate cuts, Strategy's financial performance, SEC Project Crypto, humanoid robots, and much more.Enjoy!YouTube: https://t.co/ZQw8yrgbt7Spotify: https://t.co/HwizCSWKtxApple: https://t.co/CSJjI6wpMkTIMESTAMPS:0:00 - Intro1:10 - Jobs data & interest rate cuts7:11 - AI boom is helping a lot of companies crush earnings22:19 - Evaluating Strategy’s historic earnings25:54 - SEC, White House, Jamie Dimon embr ...

About 2 minutes away from the end of the trading day. Matt Miller and Katie Greifeld here in for Romaine Bostick and Scarlet Fu. And here to help us take you through the closing bell, a global simulcast, we're joined now by Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec, bringing together our Bloomberg Television, Radio and YouTube audiences worldwide to parse through the most crucial moments of the trading day Carol.Doesn't anybody know it's ice cream day here at Bloomberg. We like like Fridays to be mellow and quiet. And ...

>> LIVE FROM WASHINGTON, D.C., THIS IS "BALANCE OF POWER" WITH JOE MATHIEU AND KAILEY LEINZ. JOE: WALL STREET ISN'T A BAD MOOD. WELCOME TO THE FRIDAY EDITION AS JOB GROWTH FALLS SHORT, PROMPTING A NEW ROUND OF CALLS FOR INTEREST RATE CUTS AS THE WHITE HOUSE PROCESS TERRORISTS FOR ALL ABOUT. -- IMPOSES TARIFFS FOR ALL ABOUT TRADING PARTNERS. A MASSIVE BREAKING STORY JUST MOMENTS AGO, YOU HEARD IT HAPPEN HERE ON BLOOMBERG. THE CORPORATION FOR PUBLIC BROADCASTING IS CLOSING DOWN, KAILEY, AFTER THE DEFENDING DE ...

Labor Market & Economic Outlook - US labor market shows warning signs with payrolls tumbling and unemployment rate rising, indicating a deceleration in job gains [1][2] - Concerns mount over a complicated mix for the Federal Reserve to deal with, leading to expectations of potential rate cuts in September and December [2][3] - Slowing services wages suggest a potential slowdown in consumption and the overall economy, justifying lower interest rates even without a formal recession [19] - The economy is structurally sound, but current policy may be suboptimal, with rates disproportionately hurting lower-income households as housing and labor markets slow [9][10] Interest Rate & Monetary Policy - Fed rate cut bets for September have reached nearly 90%, a significant increase from 45% prior to jobs data, with two rate cuts priced in for the year [6] - The Cleveland Fed President acknowledges a tricky time for monetary policy makers due to conflicting mandates, requiring careful data analysis and business conversations [7][8] - The market anticipates bull steepening as the economy slows and the Fed cuts rates, potentially spurring inflation or growth, leading to a V-shaped recovery [12] - Neutral rate is difficult to determine, potentially higher than expected due to shifts in household and business debt structures, allowing for higher interest rates with a robust economy [17][18] Bond Market & Credit Issuance - US high-grade weekly volume reached $12 million, driven by foreign bank sales, while July volume was $81 billion, the lightest month for supply this year [29] - US high-yield July volumes exceeded $35 billion, marking the second busiest month since September 2021 and the busiest since at least 2006 [30] - Leveraged loan launches in July set a record, reaching over $222 billion, the fourth time in 14 months an all-time record has been broken [30] - Private sector holds $225 trillion in cash, exceeding marketable Treasury debt, with only $29 trillion in high-quality bonds, creating a transcendent influence on the market [26][27]

>> With the one. >> CNBC out with its latest fed survey showing some growing concern about the market's valuation. Let's get over to Steve Liesman.He's got details for us Steve. >> Hey, David. Yeah.Respondents to the CNBC fed survey expressing as much concern about overvaluation in the stock market as they have in at least a year. S&P seen pretty much flat, even down according to the average respondent, 37 respondents. This time 6344 was 6133 in June.So it's up from there. But below where the market is righ ...

Core Insights - Elevated interest rates are impacting traditional equities, making it challenging for investors to achieve attractive returns [1] - A hybrid investment strategy combining dividend growth stocks, Business Development Companies, REITs, and Closed End Funds can enhance investment income while maintaining total returns comparable to traditional index funds like the S&P [1] Investment Strategy - The focus is on high-quality dividend stocks and assets with long-term growth potential, which can provide significant income for investors [1] - The combination of growth and income strategies allows for a balanced approach to investment, aiming for total returns that align with market benchmarks [1]

The euro rose to its highest level against the pound since late 2023, capping a two-month rally underpinned by the bloc’s resilient growth and the prospect of limited further interest rate cuts https://t.co/nVqVcEVThX ...

those would be the big ones to watch. Megan. Appreciate that.Megan Cassella let's turn back to the markets. S&P is trying for its 14th record close of the year. Joining us here at post nine this morning is Goldman Sachs co-head of public investing Greg Callaghan.Welcome Greg. Good to have you. >> Great to be here.Thanks for having me. >> I've been I mean it's been notable the House view out of Goldman being relatively soft about the back half at least regarding jobs. That would be fair to say.>> Yeah. Look ...