The FOMC at this week's meeting is not scheduled to release a Summary of Economic Projections, which contains the Fed's dot plot. That means the markets today will hear from Fed Chair Powell at his regular post-meeting press conference but will not receive an update from other Fed officials on their views of the future course of interest rates.The prospects of a more dovish Fed are another bullish factor for stocks. At the conclusion of today's 2-day FOMC meeting, the Fed is expected to cut the federal fund ...

CONCLUDED Fed Meeting Today: Interest Rates, Quantitative Tightening, Powell Speech, and More Last Updated: 10 hours ago When Will the Fed Release Its Interest-Rate Decision Today? Plus, How to Watch Powell's Speech. Photo: Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters The Federal Reserve's October interest-rate decision is nearly here. The central bank's policymaking arm, the Federal Open Market Committee, is slated to release its decision at 2:00 p.m. Eastern. Fed officials are expected to cut rates by a quarter of a percenta ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to a target range of 3.75%-4.00% during its upcoming policy meeting, following a similar cut in September, marking the first reduction of the federal-funds rate this year [1][2]. Group 1 - The government shutdown has hindered the Fed's access to official economic reports, prompting officials to rely on private surveys, state data, and financial-market signals to inform their decisions [2]. - With a cooling job market and inflation remaining approximately one percentage point above the Fed's 2% target, officials are cautiously balancing their dual mandate, favoring a small pre-emptive rate cut in September to mitigate potential economic downturns [2][3]. - Investors are expected to focus on the tone of the Fed's press release and Chair Jerome Powell's post-meeting press conference, rather than the immediate policy decision, as they look for indications regarding the December meeting [3].

Scope Ratings (Scope) expects the Federal Reserve to deliver a second consecutive 25bp “risk management” cut on Wednesday in response to the softer US jobs market and a slight easing in September core CPI. Futures markets are nearly fully pricing 25bps for this week and recent remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell point in this broad direction. Market attention will focus on the press conference and the signals it sends regarding the next steps. A further 25bp cut by December may be the going ...

Group 1 - The dollar index (DXY00) is trading slightly lower by -0.05% ahead of the 2-day FOMC meeting, which may result in a dovish outcome with potential hints of further rate cuts and an end to quantitative tightening [1] - The ongoing US government shutdown is putting pressure on the dollar, with concerns that prolonged shutdowns could harm the US economy and lead to interest rate cuts by the Fed [1] - The markets are pricing in a 98% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting, with expectations of an overall 115 basis point reduction by the end of 2026 [3] Group 2 - The dollar has underlying support from a +0.6 basis point rise in the 10-year T-note yield, as well as stronger-than-expected reports from the Richmond Fed and US consumer confidence [2] - The FOMC meeting will not release a Summary of Economic Projections, meaning no updates on the Fed's dot plot will be provided, but Fed Chair Powell will address the media post-meeting [4] - There is market anticipation for an update on the potential end of the Fed's quantitative tightening, which could positively impact stock and bond markets by increasing liquidity [5] Group 3 - The August FHFA US house price index rose +0.4% month-over-month, exceeding expectations of a -0.1% decline, while the S&P CoreLogic CS US 20-city house index rose +0.19% month-over-month and +1.58% year-over-year, also surpassing expectations [6] - The October Richmond Fed manufacturing index increased by 13 points to -4, which was stronger than market expectations of a 5-point rise to -12 [6]

Benzinga and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue on some items through the links below. Wall Street is discreetly gearing up for a significant alteration in the Federal Reserve’s $6.6 trillion balance sheet, coinciding with a sudden rise in Bitcoin‘s (CRYPTO: BTC) price. According to a report, Bitcoin’s price has recovered from a recent “flash crash,” soaring nearly 10% and surpassing $111,000. This development occurs as the Wall Street heavyweights prepare for the Federal Reserve to halt th ...

Group 1: Currency Movements - The U.S. dollar experienced mixed performance, ending a six-day rally against the yen and a three-day losing streak versus the euro as investors prepared for significant central bank meetings and trade negotiations [1] - The Chinese yuan reached a one-month high against the dollar at 7.1103, with the People's Bank of China setting the official midpoint rate at 7.0881 per dollar, the strongest since October 15, 2024 [2] - The yen continued to decline against the dollar for the seventh consecutive session, influenced by new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's perceived dovish stance and rising oil prices [3] Group 2: Central Bank Meetings - Analysts anticipate that the Japanese fiscal premium will remain high, limiting the potential for yen appreciation, while the market's focus is on the upcoming Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting [4] - The BoJ is expected to discuss the possibility of resuming rate hikes as concerns about a tariff-induced recession diminish, although political factors may delay any decision [5] - The Federal Reserve is widely expected to implement a 25-basis-point rate cut, with market attention on potential signals regarding the winding down of its quantitative tightening program [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q3 2025, the company reported net income of $0.53 per share compared to a loss of $0.29 in Q2 2025 [5] - Book value increased to $7.33 as of September 30 from $7.21 on June 30 [5] - Total return for Q3 was 6.7%, a significant improvement from negative 4.7% in Q2 [5] - Average portfolio balance rose to $7.7 billion in Q3 from $6.9 billion in Q2 [5] - Liquidity improved to 57.1% at September 30, up from 54% at June 30 [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average coupon of the portfolio increased from 5.45% to 5.53% [30] - Effective yield rose from 5.38% to 5.51% [30] - Net interest spread expanded from 2.43% to 2.59% [30] - 20% of the portfolio is now backed by credit-impaired borrowers, with significant exposure to Florida and New York pools [30] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Treasury curve steepened slightly during the quarter, reflecting market expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts due to labor market deterioration [7][9] - The current coupon mortgage spread to the 10-year Treasury halved from 200 basis points in May 2023 to 100 basis points [11] - The mortgage market remains attractive, with strong demand despite tight credit spreads [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company maintains a conservative leverage posture while focusing on high coupon specified pools to enhance income stability [30][43] - The strategy includes a heavy tilt towards call-protected specified pools to insulate against adverse payment behavior [30] - The company is positioned to benefit from potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and the anticipated end of quantitative tightening [44] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted a potential crossroads for the economy, with labor market weakness prompting possible Federal Reserve rate cuts, while also observing resilience in consumer spending and government stimulus [45][46] - The company expects to adjust hedges to lock in lower funding costs and prepare for potential rate hikes following expected cuts [47] Other Important Information - The company raised $152 million in equity capital during the quarter, which was fully deployed into high-quality specified pools [28][41] - The weighted average price of the portfolio was over $101, indicating a premium position [72] Q&A Session Summary Question: Any macro factors that might change overall risk positioning? - Management indicated that if the Federal Reserve continues to cut rates, they might consider increasing leverage to benefit from the low-rate environment [50][52] Question: View on payouts upside potential with refi momentum? - Management noted that payouts have increased sharply recently, but they do not expect to return to the high levels seen in 2020 or 2021 [54][55] Question: Scenarios for dollar roll specialness returning? - Management expressed skepticism about the return of dollar roll specialness, citing the Federal Reserve's focus on buying Treasuries and bills rather than mortgages [61] Question: Supply and availability for longer-dated repo? - Management mentioned that spreads for longer-dated repo are currently too wide, but they are opportunistically looking to lock in favorable terms [63][64] Question: Percentage of portfolio covered with call protection? - Almost 100% of the portfolio has some form of call protection, which is expected to mitigate risks in a declining rate environment [71]

Core Insights - Warren Buffett is set to hand over leadership of Berkshire Hathaway to Greg Abel by the end of the year, maintaining a strategy focused on resilience amid market uncertainty [1] - Buffett has been reducing major stakes in high-valuation sectors like Apple and Bank of America while selectively adding to positions in companies like Nucor and UnitedHealth Group [2] - Berkshire Hathaway's cash reserves total around $344 billion, positioning the company to capitalize on potential market downturns [3] Cash and Treasury Bills - Approximately $314 billion of Berkshire's cash is invested in U.S. Treasury bills, reflecting Buffett's preference for low-risk investments over high-priced equities [4] - This cash amount exceeds the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury bills, which are about $195 billion, indicating Buffett's strategy of capital preservation amid current market conditions [5] Investment Strategies for Individuals - Individual investors can replicate Buffett's cautious approach through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that focus on Treasury bills, such as the iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF and the SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF [6] - The iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF offers a low expense ratio of 0.09% and currently yields around 4.8%, providing a stable income stream with minimized default risk [7]

Market Performance and Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve may be shifting towards a dovish stance, hinted by Jerome Powell's comments on ending quantitative tightening, which was earlier than market expectations [2][4] - The current market liquidity, influenced by the Fed's actions, is a significant driver for market performance, alongside the expanding interest in AI stocks [2][9] Technology Sector Dynamics - The technology sector, particularly companies like Micron and AMD, is currently leading the NASDAQ, indicating a broadening market rally beyond just Nvidia and Microsoft [4][12] - There is a concern that the enthusiasm for AI stocks may be overextended, suggesting a potential bubble, although this does not preclude further gains in the near term [12][21] Earnings and Regional Banks - Recent earnings reports from regional banks have raised concerns, but the issues appear to be more related to fraud rather than systemic problems within the banking sector [15][16] - The market's reaction to these earnings suggests a cautious optimism, as there is no immediate indication of a widespread crisis [15][17] Investment Strategy Recommendations - Investors are advised to adopt a tactical approach rather than a greedy one, emphasizing the importance of covering positions and using hedging strategies to mitigate risks [18][19] - A healthy market pullback is anticipated, with a potential 30% decline in major AI stocks within the next 15 months, which could present buying opportunities [21][22]