Market Overview - Stocks experienced a significant rally, reaching record highs, driven by the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cut and a surge in the tech sector, particularly Nvidia, which became the world's first $5 trillion company due to high demand for AI chips [1][2] - The S&P 500 index briefly surpassed 6,900 for the first time, reflecting strong market optimism following the Fed's quarter-point rate cut and the end of quantitative tightening [2] Federal Reserve Impact - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's announcement of a rate cut was initially well-received, but his subsequent comments about the uncertainty of another cut in December dampened market enthusiasm, causing a shift from gains to losses in many sectors [3][8] - The probability of a December rate cut dropped from over 95% to approximately 65%, leading to a selloff across various asset classes, with the exception of the tech-heavy Nasdaq [3] Sector Performance - Nvidia's historic performance was a highlight, with the stock soaring over 4%, while other tech companies like AMD and Micron also saw solid gains [1] - Bond yields increased alongside the dollar, while gold prices fell, although silver managed to close higher [4] Trend Tracking Indexes - The Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI) closed at +5.38% above its moving average, while the International TTI was at +11.89% above its moving average, both indicating a "Buy" signal effective on May 20, 2025, and May 8, 2025, respectively [8][9]

Core Points - The Federal Reserve reduced its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4%, marking the second consecutive rate cut to support a softening labor market amid economic uncertainty [1] - The decision faced significant division within the FOMC, with one governor advocating for a larger cut and another opposing any reduction [1] - The rate cut occurred despite a federal government shutdown that limited access to critical economic data [2] - Markets experienced immediate volatility, with $300 million liquidated from crypto markets shortly after the Fed's announcement [2] - Bitcoin recovered to hold above $112,000 as traders assessed the implications of the rate cut and the end of quantitative tightening on December 1 [3] - The Fed acknowledged that job gains have slowed and risks to employment have risen, while inflation remains elevated [4] - The central bank's decision to halt balance sheet reduction indicates growing concern about liquidity conditions, with the balance sheet now below $6.6 trillion for the first time since 2020 [4] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that a December rate cut is uncertain, dampening expectations for further easing [5] - The ongoing government shutdown is affecting the Fed's policy deliberations and could impact the economy if it continues [5] - The shutdown has frozen most economic data releases, forcing reliance on outdated figures [6] - MicroStrategy Chairman Michael Saylor predicts Bitcoin will reach $150,000 by year-end, reflecting a consensus among equity analysts in the Bitcoin industry [7]

you know, we we've we've we've just heard from you that that the um the discussion in December and the conclusion of the discussion is not a foregone conclusion. I'd like to just dig into that a little bit more about what sort of arguments were brought up. Was there any consideration for instance of the investment we're seeing in AI and some of the the generation of household wealth through rises in stock prices related to the AI boom.Thank you. You know, I wouldn't say that's a that's that's a factor in ev ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point during the October FOMC meeting, with dissenting votes from Stephen Miran and Jeffrey Schmid [2] - Miran advocated for a larger rate cut of half a percentage point, while Schmid preferred to maintain the current rates [2] - Miran's dissent is notable as back-to-back dissents from the same governor are uncommon in the Federal Reserve's history [2]

Economic Outlook - The FOMC is not releasing a Summary of Economic Projections this week, meaning no updates on interest rate forecasts from Fed officials [1] - The Fed is expected to cut the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% and may halt its quantitative tightening regime [2] - Markets are anticipating a 90% chance of another 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on December 9-10, with an overall expectation of a 115 basis point cut by the end of 2026 [2] Market Performance - US stock indexes are reaching new all-time highs, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq 100 all climbing [4] - The S&P 500 Index is up by 0.32%, the Dow Jones by 0.40%, and the Nasdaq 100 by 0.47% [5] - Easing global trade tensions are contributing to stock gains, particularly following President Trump's comments on lowering tariffs on Chinese goods [4] Sector Performance - Semiconductor stocks are showing strength, led by a 4% increase in Nvidia, following news of potential access to Nvidia's AI processor for China [3][18] - Other chipmakers like Lam Research and Advanced Micro Devices are also seeing gains of over 3% [18] Trade Relations - A tentative trade agreement between the US and China is expected to be announced, which includes China agreeing not to restrict rare earth metal exports for at least one year [8] - The US and South Korea have finalized a trade deal involving $150 billion in shipbuilding investments in the US [4] Earnings Reports - This week is significant for earnings, with 173 S&P 500 companies reporting; 84% of those that have reported so far have beaten forecasts [9] - Notable companies reporting include Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon [9] - Q3 profits are expected to rise by 7.2% year-over-year, the smallest increase in two years [9] Company-Specific Movements - Teradyne's stock is up over 15% after reporting Q3 net revenue of $769.2 million, exceeding expectations [19] - Seagate Technology is also up more than 15% after reporting Q1 adjusted EPS of $2.61, above consensus [19] - Bloom Energy and Caterpillar are up more than 13% and 11% respectively, following strong earnings reports [20] Market Sentiment - The ongoing US government shutdown is impacting market sentiment, with estimates of 640,000 federal workers being furloughed [13] - The shutdown is delaying the release of key economic reports, which could affect market performance [13]

CONCLUDED Fed Meeting Today: Interest Rates, Quantitative Tightening, Powell Speech, and More Last Updated: 10 hours ago When Will the Fed Release Its Interest-Rate Decision Today? Plus, How to Watch Powell's Speech. Photo: Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters The Federal Reserve's October interest-rate decision is nearly here. The central bank's policymaking arm, the Federal Open Market Committee, is slated to release its decision at 2:00 p.m. Eastern. Fed officials are expected to cut rates by a quarter of a percenta ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to a target range of 3.75%-4.00% during its upcoming policy meeting, following a similar cut in September, marking the first reduction of the federal-funds rate this year [1][2]. Group 1 - The government shutdown has hindered the Fed's access to official economic reports, prompting officials to rely on private surveys, state data, and financial-market signals to inform their decisions [2]. - With a cooling job market and inflation remaining approximately one percentage point above the Fed's 2% target, officials are cautiously balancing their dual mandate, favoring a small pre-emptive rate cut in September to mitigate potential economic downturns [2][3]. - Investors are expected to focus on the tone of the Fed's press release and Chair Jerome Powell's post-meeting press conference, rather than the immediate policy decision, as they look for indications regarding the December meeting [3].

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement a second consecutive 25 basis point "risk management" cut in response to a softer US jobs market and a slight easing in September core CPI [1] - Market focus will be on the press conference for signals regarding future rate cuts, with a further 25 basis point cut by December being a possibility, though not guaranteed [2] - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions due to political pressure and differing views on the inflation target, complicating the decision-making process [3] Economic Context - The US economy is showing resilience, raising questions about the duration of the softer labor market data, while the ongoing government shutdown complicates the availability of official data [5] - Increased US trade tariffs and broader price pressures highlight the need for caution, as political interference could undermine the Fed's independence and credibility [4] - Current inflation remains above the official target of 2%, with some estimates suggesting it may average around 3% in the near future [3][6]

Group 1 - The dollar index (DXY00) is trading slightly lower by -0.05% ahead of the 2-day FOMC meeting, which may result in a dovish outcome with potential hints of further rate cuts and an end to quantitative tightening [1] - The ongoing US government shutdown is putting pressure on the dollar, with concerns that prolonged shutdowns could harm the US economy and lead to interest rate cuts by the Fed [1] - The markets are pricing in a 98% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting, with expectations of an overall 115 basis point reduction by the end of 2026 [3] Group 2 - The dollar has underlying support from a +0.6 basis point rise in the 10-year T-note yield, as well as stronger-than-expected reports from the Richmond Fed and US consumer confidence [2] - The FOMC meeting will not release a Summary of Economic Projections, meaning no updates on the Fed's dot plot will be provided, but Fed Chair Powell will address the media post-meeting [4] - There is market anticipation for an update on the potential end of the Fed's quantitative tightening, which could positively impact stock and bond markets by increasing liquidity [5] Group 3 - The August FHFA US house price index rose +0.4% month-over-month, exceeding expectations of a -0.1% decline, while the S&P CoreLogic CS US 20-city house index rose +0.19% month-over-month and +1.58% year-over-year, also surpassing expectations [6] - The October Richmond Fed manufacturing index increased by 13 points to -4, which was stronger than market expectations of a 5-point rise to -12 [6]

Core Insights - Wall Street is preparing for a significant change in the Federal Reserve's $6.6 trillion balance sheet, coinciding with a notable rise in Bitcoin's price, which has surged nearly 10% to surpass $111,000 [1][4] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is expected to halt the reduction of its $6.6 trillion balance sheet, a process known as quantitative tightening, which has been in effect since 2022 [2][4] - Analysts from JPMorgan and Bank of America predict that the Fed will stop the contraction of its balance sheet this month, which is anticipated to stimulate risk assets like Bitcoin as liquidity increases [4][6] Group 2: Bitcoin Market Dynamics - Over the past year, Bitcoin's price has closely followed the rally of gold, as traders seek hard assets like gold, silver, and Bitcoin as protection against inflation and the declining purchasing power of the dollar [5] - Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMex, predicts a surge in money printing from the U.S. starting next year, which could lead to significant asset appreciation, with Bitcoin potentially reaching a price of $1 million [3][7] Group 3: Implications for Risk Assets - The anticipated halt in the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening could have substantial implications for Bitcoin and other risk assets, potentially leading to increased liquidity and asset appreciation [6][7]