Market Trends - Bitcoin price surged to $90,000, then experienced a significant decline [1] Sentiment - Santa Rally hopes are diminishing [1]

Core Insights - Bitcoin experienced a brief rally to $90,000 but subsequently fell to nearly $85,000, indicating market volatility and uncertainty regarding future price movements [1] - Confidence among users on the Myriad prediction market has decreased, with the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 dropping from 69% to 57%, and the likelihood of a Santa rally now below 4% [2] Market Performance - Bitcoin's current trading price is $85,921, reflecting a 2% decline over the past day, with a low of $85,373 earlier [3] - Ethereum has also seen a decline of 4% in the last day, now priced at $2,824, and down 16% over the past week, leading losses among the top 10 crypto assets by market cap [4] Fund Flows and Economic Indicators - Bitcoin ETFs have experienced outflows, with a total loss of $634 million in funds this week, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment [4] - Recent U.S. jobs data revealed an increase in unemployment, the highest since 2021, which may be impacting market confidence [5] Interest Rate Considerations - Anticipation of a potential rate hike by the Bank of Japan could affect global liquidity, which has historically supported risk assets like Bitcoin [5] - Bitwise Chief Investment Officer noted that while the rate hike is expected and priced into the market, it could still create short-term downward pressure due to investor reactions to the headline [6]

Market Overview - Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen below the psychological level of $90,000, indicating increased pressure on leveraged positions and breaking from its consolidation range [1] - The market is punishing excessive risk-taking, with Bitcoin clearing its first major support at $87,000, suggesting further downside targets are still in play [3] Analyst Insights - Prominent analyst Trader Mayne describes the breakdown from the triangle apex as a significant short-term development, warning of potential further downside as leverage is flushed out [2][3] - Ethereum (ETH) is showing relative strength, holding key monthly demand zones, while the ETH/BTC pair is trending higher [4] Future Projections - Mayne predicts a high probability of Bitcoin reaching the $80,000 lows if U.S. equities weaken further, noting that a 2%-3% pullback in the S&P 500 could push risk assets into demand zones [4][5] - The current higher-timeframe downtrend remains in control, with bears retaining the advantage until Bitcoin breaks its diagonal resistance and reclaims key levels [5] Macro Considerations - Upcoming macro risks include the Bank of Japan's policy decision, which could lead to renewed unwinding of the yen carry trade if rates are raised, adding pressure to global risk assets [5]

Market Sentiment - The market anticipates a potential Santa Claus rally for Christmas [1]

Market Trends - Stocks typically bottom on December 15th and rally for the rest of the year [1] - Bitcoin also formed a bottom on December 15th [1]

Group 1 - Bitcoin (BTC) continues to experience rangebound trading, with recent tests of mid $90k levels failing and dropping below $87k after three consecutive days of decline [1][2] - The upcoming macroeconomic events, including Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports, could influence market expectations for rate cuts, which may impact BTC and other cryptocurrencies [2] - Perpetual futures funding rates for BTC are flat at around 3% annualized on centralized exchanges, while decentralized exchanges (DEX) show higher rates around 11% annualized, indicating potential for arbitrage trading [3]

Market Sentiment - The anticipated "Santa Rally" for Wall Street has not materialized, with concerns about a bubble in the AI sector dampening market enthusiasm [1][2] - Despite a dovish interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, valuation concerns are impacting investor sentiment [2] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the third time this year, aligning with market expectations, and indicated a "wait and see" approach regarding future rate cuts due to a weakening labor market and persistent inflation [3] Company-Specific Developments - Oracle's stock experienced a significant decline of up to 16% following its earnings report, which revealed that AI spending was outpacing returns, resulting in a loss of approximately $70 billion in company valuation [4] - The overall financial markets showed volatility, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 both experiencing slight declines [4]

Market Overview - The Australian stock market (ASX) is expected to end the week on a positive note, with futures up by 1% as of Friday morning [1] - The S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices closed higher, with increases of 0.2% and 1.3% respectively, while the Nasdaq composite fell by 0.25% [3] Company News - BHG Capital is speculated to be preparing a takeover offer for Webjet Ltd (ASX:WEB), motivated by the company's cash reserves of $110 million [4] - The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) has rejected Insurance Australia Group's (ASX:IAG) proposal to acquire the Royal Automobile Club of Western Australia for $855 million [4] - Dexus (ASX:DXS) has completed the acquisition of Westfield Chermside for $683 million [4] Mining Sector - Black Cat Syndicate (ASX:BC8) is acquiring strategic tenements near Lakewood, while GreenX Metals (ASX:GRX) has activated an option to acquire 90% of Group 11, which holds several Tannenberg licenses, providing significant potential in Germany [5] Commodity Prices - The Australian dollar is trading at 66.6 U.S. cents [6] - Iron ore prices decreased by 1% to $101.75 per tonne, Brent crude oil fell by 1% to $61.56 per barrel, and gold is priced at $4,282 per ounce [6]

Odds of a crypto Santa Rally are down to 18% on MyriadAfter yesterday's post-rate cut tumble https://t.co/uqsRV3tfmG ...

RT Naga Avan-Nomayo (@JeSuisNaga)Will Bitcoin and crypto see a "Santa Rally" this holiday?Probably not, according to the analysts.U.S. spot #Bitcoin ETFs drew $224M in net inflows, but price still buckled post-FOMC.BTC touched $94.5k, then reversed to $90k as the tone from Fed Chair Jerome Powell leaned hawkish.Seven of eight Fed meetings this year have ended with BTC dropping.Bottom line: the macro overhang is still very much present.Full breakdown on The Block (link below) ...