#Bitcoin – What’s Next?The Big Sunday Report: All you need to know:🚩 TA / LCA / Psychological Breakdown:Last week at $106,000, while most of analysts were cluelessly echoing fear, uncertainty, and garbage narratives around the 80,000 BTC move, I gave the blueprint. And it played out with precision. Bitcoin broke out of the bull flag exactly as predicted, targeting $114k region first and then pumped through towards $118,000. No retest, no correction, no fakeouts, just pure trend continuation, exactly as I ma ...

Group 1 - Leveraged ETFs are generally viewed as poor investment vehicles due to high expenses and volatility, often launched after investment narratives have already occurred [1] - The investment strategy discussed involves a balanced portfolio of low-cost funds and single stocks, with a focus on long-term holding and understanding market dynamics beyond just numerical analysis [2] - The analyst expresses a bullish outlook on specific stocks including AMD, PLTR, TSLA, and Bitcoin, indicating a positive sentiment towards these investments [2] Group 2 - Leveraged products like SOXL are associated with high risks, including potential for amplified losses and high expense ratios, suggesting caution for investors [4] - The article emphasizes the importance of conducting personal research and aligning investments with individual financial objectives and risk tolerance [4]

Market Performance & Sentiment - The first half of the year saw an extraordinary market bounce from the April lows, with significant intra-quarter swings [1][2][3] - Sentiment change was notable, with Meta up almost 30% and JP Morgan up almost 20% [2] - The NASDAQ is on the verge of making a new relative high against the S&P, a key indicator for market players [7] - The S&P and NASDAQ made brief new highs, closing the first half near all-time highs with a VIX below 17 [8][9] Economic Factors & Risks - The first half of the year was one of the worst for the US dollar since the 1970s, with a nearly 7% move lower in the dollar index during Q2 [5] - A weaker dollar is beneficial for multinationals and the big tech trade [9] - The Fed lowered its growth target for the US for the second half of the year [10] - There is confusion regarding the Fed's next move, with scenarios for both lowering and maintaining interest rates [11][12] Sector Performance & Concerns - The reemergence of big tech companies has been a significant driver [6] - While tech may continue to drive the market higher, caution is advised due to potential shifts in the dollar or crude oil prices [9] - Energy, materials, home builders, retail, and pharma sectors are underperforming, indicating a lack of broad-based rally [9][10]

Market Overview - The three major indices showed a strong upward trend on June 30, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.59% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 1.35% [2] - Over 4,000 stocks in the market experienced gains, with total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reaching 1.51 trillion yuan, a decrease of 58.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] - The A-share market officially closed for the first half of the year, indicating a positive market trend [2] Sector Performance - Military stocks surged significantly, with several military-related stocks reaching new highs [7] - The semiconductor industry chain also performed well, particularly in the photolithography machine sector [6] - Other active sectors included photovoltaic, rare earth permanent magnets, stablecoins, AI applications, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals, while banking, brokerage, and oil and gas sectors weakened [2][6] Stock Price Trends - The average stock price across the A-share market closed at 22.02 yuan, surpassing the previous high of 21.97 yuan on May 13, indicating potential for further gains in the second quarter [4] - Various military-related concepts saw significant increases, with the military equipment restructuring concept rising by 8.89% year-to-date [8] Investment Insights - Analysts suggest that the market is entering a phase where growth sectors, particularly technology and military, are likely to take the lead, moving away from the previous financial sector dominance [6][13] - The upcoming International Low Altitude Economic Expo in Shanghai is expected to drive interest in low-altitude enterprises and related sectors [9] - Recommendations for July include focusing on technology sectors, particularly AI and semiconductor industries, as well as military stocks due to their favorable positioning and upcoming catalysts [13][14]

All right, let's talk markets. Ahead of a big week, investors paying close attention to fighting between Israel and Iran as well as the Fed. The central bank's going to be issuing its latest interest rate decision on Wednesday.And right now, we want to bring in Lori Calvacina. She is head of US equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. And Lori, we thought we had a little bit of idea of how the markets were headed.We've been looking at inflation coming down. We thought maybe that was going to help the Fed get ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive sentiment towards the market, suggesting opportunities for adding exposure, particularly in short-dated topside volatility strategies [2][3]. Core Insights - Volatility has decreased, allowing systematic investors to take a more bullish stance [2]. - Retail demand remains strong despite May typically being a month of outflows, indicating robust market support [3]. - Liquidity and market sentiment have improved, signaling a healing market environment [4][5]. - CTAs are projected to flip to a net long position in US equities, with expected purchases of approximately $14 billion over the next week [9]. - The report highlights significant short covering in US-listed ETFs and single stocks, particularly in large-cap equity and tech sectors [20][21]. Summary by Sections Liquidity - S&P Top of Book liquidity reached $9.83 million, significantly higher than April lows of $1.1 million and 28% above the year-to-date average [5]. CTA Positioning - CTAs have increased their long positions in US equities, with a projected net purchase of $14 billion, indicating a shift in market dynamics [9]. Retail Demand - Retail flows have remained strong, supporting the market post "Liberation Day" frenzy, with confidence bolstered by the absence of negative economic data [39][40]. Sentiment - Overall market sentiment has improved but remains at low levels compared to historical data, suggesting potential for growth [27]. Volatility Control Strategies - Volatility control strategies are expected to add length due to lower realized volatility, which is currently around 15, aligning with the one-year average [42][43].

Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 4.25% – 4.50% and maintained projections for two quarter-point cuts in 2025 and two more in 2026 [1][2][3] - The Fed revised its economic growth forecast down to 1.7% for this year from 2.1% and increased core inflation expectations to 2.8% from 2.5% [3] - The Fed will reduce its quantitative tightening program, allowing only $5 billion of Treasurys to roll off its balance sheet each month instead of $25 billion [4] Market Reaction - Following the Fed's announcement, all three major indexes rose, with the Nasdaq leading with a 1.4% increase [2] - Traders are divided on whether there will be two or three quarter-point cuts this year, with the CME Group's FedWatch Tool showing nearly equal probabilities for both scenarios [7] Economic Outlook - The labor market remains strong, characterized as a "low hiring, low firing" environment, and the Fed does not anticipate significant impacts from federal job cuts [8] - The Fed's base case suggests that any price increases from tariffs will be a one-time event rather than a sustained trend [8] - Despite some bearish sentiment in "soft data," the Fed does not see material weakening in "hard data" [8] Investor Sentiment and Earnings - Recent bearish sentiment could either be justified by escalating trade wars or prove unwarranted if recession fears dissipate [18] - Analysts forecast earnings growth rates of 9.7%, 12.1%, and 11.6% for Q2 2025 through Q4 2025, indicating robust earnings potential [17] Nvidia and Quantum Computing - Nvidia is set to hold its first "Quantum Day" during its annual AI conference, which is expected to attract significant attention from industry leaders and developers [23] - A small-cap stock closely tied to Nvidia is highlighted as a potential major beneficiary of Nvidia's quantum computing initiatives [24] - Historical partnerships with Nvidia have led to substantial stock price increases for smaller companies, with potential for significant returns if a partnership is announced [26][27]