Group 1: Oilseeds and Oils - Domestic oilseeds and oils showed strong performance in January, with oil prices rising more than protein meal prices. Palm oil and rapeseed oil outperformed soybean oil [3][13] - The increase in prices is driven by a general rise in commodity prices, higher crude oil prices, and the destocking of oilseeds and oils [3][13] - Brazil's soybean harvest is progressing, with the largest state, Mato Grosso, advancing quickly. However, overall harvest progress is slower than in previous years, leading to delayed selling by farmers due to low prices and currency appreciation [3][13] - The upcoming weather conditions in South America, particularly in early February, will be crucial for soybean yield realization, which could lead to a decline in global soybean prices if no significant issues arise [3][13] - Domestic feed consumption is expected to remain stable compared to last year, with high soybean meal supply maintaining a balance in supply and demand [3][13] Group 2: Eggs - After the New Year, egg prices rebounded due to increased demand, but supply remains ample, leading to a cautious market outlook for future egg production [15][16] - As of January 30, the main egg futures contract saw a weekly decline of 1.44% but a monthly increase of 1.73% [15][16] - The increase in egg prices has improved farming profits, with a reported profit of 0.66 yuan per jin as of January 29, up 0.89 yuan from the previous month [16] Group 3: Corn - The USDA report in January was bearish for U.S. corn, leading to a significant price drop, with production estimates raised to a record 17.021 billion bushels [17][18] - Domestic corn prices showed fluctuations, with a weekly average of 2332 yuan per ton as of January 29, while sales in production areas increased ahead of the Lunar New Year [18] - The market is currently experiencing a balance in supply and demand, with traders building inventories and executing previous orders [18] Group 4: Pork - In January, live hog prices initially rose but then fell, with the national average price at 12.14 yuan per kilogram, down 0.66 yuan from the previous month [19][20] - The number of breeding sows decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, indicating a potential impact on future supply [20][21] - As of January 30, the operating rate of slaughterhouses was 41.59%, reflecting a slight increase from the previous week but a decrease from the previous month [22]

南方财经记者 翁榕涛 实习生 胡剑铭 周内（1月26日至1月30日），大宗商品市场分化加剧。基本金属板块涨跌不一，贵金属板块冲高回 落。 具体来看，能源化工板块，燃油周上涨6.70%、原油上涨6.54%；黑色系板块，焦煤周下跌0.13%、 焦炭下跌0.03%、铁矿石下跌0.44%；基本金属板块，碳酸锂周下跌18.36%、沪锌上涨5.08%、沪镍下跌 5.63%；贵金属板块，沪金周上涨4.10%、沪银上涨11.92%；农产品板块，鸡蛋周下跌1.44%、生猪下跌 2.98%。 交易行情热点 热点一：投机情绪降温，黄金冲高后大幅回落 本周黄金期货市场经历剧烈波动，前期受地缘避险情绪推动创下历史新高后，因美联储政策预期生 变大幅回调。截至1月30日，沪金主力2604合约报1161.42元/克，周涨4.10%；伦敦金收于4880美元/盎 司，周跌2.07%，日内最大跌幅达9.29%，创40年来最大单日跌幅。 供给上，全球黄金供应保持稳定，矿山产量与回收量稳步释放，未出现明显缺口。2025年全球黄金 总需求达5002吨创历史新高，但供应端未出现大幅波动，供需格局相对均衡。央行售金规模有限，新兴 国家央行延续购金态势，进一 ...

Core Insights - Copper is emerging as a key metal to watch, following a significant price surge of 35% in 2025, reaching $11,771 per metric tonne, driven by supply and demand dynamics [1] - A predicted shortfall of 150,000 tons in global copper supply in 2025 highlights the increasing demand for copper, which is essential for various applications including power grids and electronics [1] Group 1: Demand and Supply Dynamics - BHP forecasts that global demand for copper will increase sixfold by 2050, largely due to the growth of data centers and improving living standards in developing economies [2] - The launch of the world's first physically backed ETF for copper by Sprott Asset Management in 2024 has seen a price increase of nearly 46% in 2025, reflecting strong market interest [2][3] Group 2: Market Trends and Investor Sentiment - In the U.S., stockpiling of copper is occurring as investors anticipate potential tariffs by mid-2026, which is exacerbating supply challenges and driving prices higher [3] - Copper is increasingly viewed as an economic indicator, reflecting investor sentiment regarding the performance of the U.S. market [3] Group 3: Safe-Haven Asset Perspective - Similar to gold and silver, copper is gaining recognition as a safe-haven asset amid concerns over tariffs and geopolitical tensions affecting the stock market [5] - Analysts suggest that investors interested in AI should consider investing in copper-related ETFs, indicating a strategic shift towards this metal [6]

Silver prices are retreating from a historic peak after two of the most prominent voices in finance issued a stark reality check to investors riding the white metal's parabolic surge. The Peak And The Pivot On Jan. 29, silver reached a staggering all-time high of $121.6700 per ounce. However, the euphoria was short-lived. By Jan. 30, the market witnessed a sharp correction, with silver spot prices falling to $108.8400—a drop of 5.90%, as of the publication of this article. This sudden $6.82 slide coinci ...

Natural Gas Market - Natural gas has been trading in a range between $2 and $5 for nearly 20 years, with a notable second consecutive colder-than-normal winter impacting demand [1] - As of Wednesday, the front contract for natural gas is trading at $3.70, with expectations for prices to reach around $5 by January of next year [2] - Hedge funds are currently positioned short on natural gas, leading to a price surge attributed to a short squeeze, particularly in the front contract with only 20,000 open interest compared to 350,000 in the next contract [3][4] Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices are experiencing a significant rally, with the current momentum being driven by demand from China, leading to speculation [6] - The amount of silver held in ETFs is 843 million ounces, a substantial supply that did not exist in the past, and these holders have started selling into the rally, resulting in a 2% decrease in total holdings this year [7][8] - The velocity of the silver rally is unprecedented, with comparisons being made to historical peaks, and expectations of potential price corrections in the future [5][6]

Group 1 - The focus on technology stocks related to artificial intelligence (AI) often overlooks the essential supply chain components, such as copper, which is critical for AI technologies, highlighting the investment potential in Southern Copper (NYSE: SCCO) [1] - Southern Copper is a copper mining company that requires significant time and capital investment to develop mines, including obtaining approvals and restoring sites post-extraction [2] - The current demand for copper is driven by AI, with Southern Copper estimating that global copper inventories will only cover eight days of demand by the end of Q3 2025, indicating a potential supply deficit [3] Group 2 - Copper prices are influenced by supply and demand dynamics, with rising demand leading to higher prices; despite a decrease in production to 235 million tons in Q3 2025 compared to Q3 2024, Southern Copper still achieved higher sales due to rising copper prices [4] - Southern Copper's stock price has increased by 95% over the past year, reflecting investor awareness of copper market trends; however, resolving the supply-demand imbalance will take time, with new mines expected to open in 2027 and 2028 [5] - The company has plans for additional copper projects beyond the upcoming mines, indicating a long-term growth strategy in the copper market [5][7]

Freezing weather is sweeping across much of the US, putting strain on electricity grids and driving up demand for the heating and power-plant fuel. The storm knocked out about 12% of the country’s natural gas production, limiting supplies to power plants and home furnaces that burn the fuel. Europe relies on the US for most of its gas imports since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 upended traditional pipeline flows and any disruption to US export capacity can quickly tighten the market. Bloom ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Copper Market - **Date**: January 22, 2026 Core Insights 1. **Macro Factors Supporting Copper Prices**: The macroeconomic environment remains favorable for copper, with anticipated interest rate cuts and demand for real assets driving support. New demand themes, such as data centers, are also contributing to this trend [2][4][9] 2. **Supply Tightness**: Limited growth in copper mine supply is expected in 2026, with a forecasted deficit of approximately 600,000 tonnes. This is due to minimal supply growth (0.2%) being offset by strong demand growth (1.8%) from emerging sectors [4][42] 3. **US Import Demand Moderating**: There has been a recent moderation in US copper import demand, with rising LME inventories. The narrowing of the COMEX-LME spread has reduced financial incentives for further imports [3][10][11] 4. **Chinese Demand Weakness**: China's apparent copper demand has weakened, with exports increasing and inventories rising counterseasonally. This trend is expected to continue into the Lunar New Year, leading to seasonal demand weakness [3][25][26] 5. **Short-term Volatility Expected**: While the overall market remains tight, short-term price volatility is anticipated due to uncertainties regarding US import trajectories and limited data from China until March [4][9] Additional Important Insights 1. **Impact of Tariffs**: The potential for US tariffs on refined copper remains a significant factor for the market. The decision on tariffs will be crucial for the outlook in the second half of 2026 and into 2027 [11][24] 2. **China's Refined Output Growth**: Despite tight global copper concentrate markets, China's refined copper output grew by 10% in 2025, reaching record levels. This growth is supported by increased scrap imports and domestic production [37][41] 3. **Future Supply Recovery**: There is potential for recovery in copper supply in the latter half of 2026 and into 2027, with several mines expected to restart operations [43] 4. **Data Void Ahead**: The upcoming Lunar New Year will limit data availability from China, complicating demand assessments until mid-March [26] Conclusion The copper market is currently characterized by a supportive macroeconomic backdrop and tight supply conditions, but faces challenges from moderating US demand and weakening Chinese consumption. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with potential for volatility and significant developments related to tariff decisions and supply recovery in the coming months.

Core Viewpoint - Micron Technology is experiencing significant momentum, driven by the increasing demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) in artificial intelligence (AI) applications, with a potential for further growth in its stock price [2][4][11] Company Performance - Micron's stock has surged over 260% in the last 12 months, outperforming other AI stocks [2] - Current market capitalization stands at $450 billion, with a price range of $390.76 to $412.22 for the day [3] - The company has a gross margin of 45.53% and a dividend yield of 0.12% [3] Market Dynamics - The total addressable market for HBM is projected to grow from approximately $35 billion last year to around $100 billion by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of about 40% [6] - Strong demand for HBM is expected to persist, with supply constraints likely continuing beyond 2026 [6][7] Demand Drivers - AI applications are expanding beyond data centers to edge devices, including smartphones and vehicles, increasing the need for memory [3][4] - Developers of large language models are increasing context windows, which require more memory, specifically HBM [4][5] Earnings Potential - Analysts predict that Micron's earnings could nearly quadruple over the next two years due to favorable supply-demand dynamics [8] - The stock is currently trading at 12.5 times forward earnings, with a low price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 0.7, indicating potential for significant growth [9] Analyst Sentiment - Despite a strong performance, the consensus 12-month price target for Micron is 12% below the current share price, reflecting a cautious outlook among analysts [10] - 37 out of 43 analysts rated Micron as a "buy" or "strong buy," indicating overall positive sentiment despite the lower price target [10]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Aluminium and Alumina - **Current Price Trends**: LME aluminium prices have rallied to over $3,000 per tonne, driven by tightening fundamentals, supply disruptions, and increased net speculative positioning [2][3] Aluminium Market Insights - **Demand Growth**: Primary aluminium demand is expected to grow at approximately 2.5% in 2025, slightly below the trend of 3-4%, leading to a modest surplus in the market [3] - **Supply Constraints**: Supply growth is limited, particularly in China where smelter run rates are at the 45 million tonnes capacity cap. Future growth from Indonesia is expected to be measured, with restarts in Europe and the US offset by closures [3][9] - **Price Outlook**: The LME price is above the cost curve, indicating an improving supply-demand outlook. A balanced global market is anticipated in 2026, with medium-term price risks skewed to the upside as demand improves [3][21] Alumina Market Insights - **Price Trends**: Alumina prices are currently around $300 per tonne, reflecting a bearish outlook due to significant overcapacity in China and new capacity additions in Indonesia and India [4][39] - **Capacity Additions**: China is expected to add over 10 million tonnes of new alumina capacity in 2026, contributing to the existing overcapacity [4][47] - **Fundamental Challenges**: Despite low prices, the outlook for alumina remains challenging due to limited growth in global aluminium output and low capacity utilization in China [39][46] Regional Supply Dynamics - **China**: Expected to produce 44.5 million tonnes of primary aluminium in 2025, with negligible growth beyond that due to the 45 million tonnes capacity cap [27][28] - **Indonesia**: Anticipated to be the largest contributor to global supply growth, with projects expected to add approximately 3 million tonnes of new supply over the next 2-3 years [13][14] - **Europe and US**: Several smelters are in the process of restarting, but material production increases are unlikely due to high costs and market conditions [22][23] Investment Insights - **Equity Performance**: AA has outperformed NHY, driven by potential catalysts such as Canadian tariff exemptions and improved cash returns. Valuations for aluminium are generally undemanding, with NHY seen as more valuable compared to AA [5] - **Investment Recommendations**: Continued buying interest in companies like Hongqiao and Press Metal is noted, with a cautious approach towards AA due to stretched valuations [5] Additional Considerations - **Power Constraints**: The aluminium smelting process is highly power-intensive, and the availability of power in Indonesia may constrain growth. The planned increase in aluminium smelting capacity will require significant growth in national power output [15][16] - **Bauxite Supply**: China's dependence on imported bauxite from Guinea poses risks, but increased imports and stabilization of domestic production are expected to support alumina output [46][47] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections regarding the aluminium and alumina markets, highlighting both opportunities and challenges within the industry.