来源：市场资讯 希腊船舶经纪公司Xclusiv的数据分析印证，高企的现货运价显著刺激了二手船买卖市场。该公司在近 期报告中指出："仅运价水平就足以让2026年1月显得不同寻常，而船舶买卖（S&P）市场的活跃度证实 了这一点。" 报告显示，2026年1月成为过去五年来最活跃的油轮交易月份，共计有87艘油轮易手，远超去年同期的 20艘。其中，VLCC是最活跃的船型，交易量达37艘。 据船舶经纪人消息，特盈海运已将其旗下唯一一艘船舶——29.72万载重吨的"Asian Lion"号（建于2009 年）以6000万美元的价格出售给希腊买家。该公司于2025年3月才从越南Asia Pacific Shipping公司以 4900万美元购入该船，当时船名为"交响乐"号（Symphony）。此次转手净赚约1100万美元。 面对船价已处高位的现状，为何交易反而加速？Xclusiv在一周前的报告中提出了这个问题，并给出解 读："当其他选择更不理想时，高昂的二手船价格并不会阻碍交易。"报告进一步解释称："新造船的置 换成本依然高企，船厂船位仍然紧张。许多船东因此更倾向于立即购入已在运营的船舶来锁定市场机 会，而不愿承受新造船漫长 ...

2019年9月25日，某主要油运公司突遭美国制裁，或潜在影响该集团下属的44艘VLCC(占全球VLCC数 量的7.5%)，短期内对VLCC运力造成扰动，运价随之暴涨：制裁当日VLCCTD3c运价仅为3.5万美元/ 日，而在制裁落地后约两周，运价暴涨至30万美元/日。市场对供给侧扰动的高敏感性可见一斑。 VLCC中长期合规运力紧张或是长锦重注VLCC的关键 华源证券认为，从中长期看，VLCC供给侧面临船舶青黄不接的问题，有望持续支撑VLCC市场景气 度。占当前VLCC船队33.8%的2006-2012年交付运力将从2026年开始陆续进入20年船龄，而未来每年交 付量或仅能满足更新需要。这或将导致VLCC市场在全球原油需求持续增长、环保法规逐年趋严的趋势 下面临持续供给不足的问题，运价有望中长期向好。长锦商船重注VLCC的核心原因或在于此。 智通财经APP获悉，华源证券发布研报称，根据壹航运公众号，韩国Sinokor(长锦商船)计划将旗下全部 集装箱船出售给地中海航运(MSC)，并将集运套现资金集中投向VLCC领域，通过"二手收购+长租控 制"快速扩张控制运力。早在2025年初，长锦商船与Trafigura在看好 ...

证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 08 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2026年02月06日 华源晨会精粹 20260208 固定收益 长债收益率可能再度下行 5-10BP——2 月债市投资策略：1 月中旬以来 长债超跌反弹，主要靠配置盘驱动。截至 2 月 6 日，10Y 及 30Y 国债收益率较 1 月 7 日高点下行了近 10BP。2026 年 1 月 1 日-2 月 6 日，券商及基金合计净卖出超长 （剩余期限 20Y 以上）利率债 1086 亿元，上年同期仅净卖出 57 亿；同时期，险资 净买入超长利率债 1206 亿元，城农商行净买入 500 亿元，同比分别多增 554 亿元 及 688 亿元。尽管券商自营及基金等交易盘大幅净卖出超长利率债，但债券收益率 回升提升了超长债的配置价值，城农商行及险资加大了超长债的配置力度，使得超 长债收益率有所回落。当前，债券收益率曲线较为陡峭，城农商行负债成本虽大幅 下行，但配 7Y 以内国债的利差较低，适度拉长久期才能获取较高的债券配置收益率。 我们预计，2026 年一季度城农商行负债成本率不少降至 1.6 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the remarkable performance of the South Korean stock market, highlighting its significant gains and the factors driving this growth, including key industries and government reforms [5][38]. Group 1: Market Performance - On February 2, the KOSPI index fell below 5000 points, with foreign investors selling 25.2 trillion KRW and institutions selling 22.1 trillion KRW, while retail investors bought over 50 trillion KRW, setting a historical record [5][6]. - The following day, the market rebounded, rising 6.84%, nearly recovering from the previous day's losses [7]. - Since April of the previous year, the KOSPI has increased by over 130%, surpassing 5300 points [9]. Group 2: Key Industries - The South Korean stock market is heavily weighted, with the top 20 stocks accounting for over 60% of the KOSPI, particularly in semiconductors, shipbuilding, and battery sectors, which contributed over 70% to the recent gains [17][18]. - The semiconductor sector saw a staggering 280% increase, driven by a supply-demand imbalance expected to peak in 2025, with a projected 78% year-on-year growth in semiconductor exports [19][23]. - The shipbuilding industry experienced a 190% increase, with global new ship orders expected to rise by 45% in 2025, with South Korean companies capturing 48% of these orders [29][30]. - The battery sector grew by 120%, focusing on high-end electric vehicles and energy storage, despite a decrease in market share [34][35]. Group 3: Government Reforms - The South Korean government implemented significant reforms in April 2025, including easing foreign investment restrictions and reducing transaction taxes, which led to a net foreign purchase of 38.6 trillion KRW in stocks from April to December 2025 [43][46]. - The National Pension Service (NPS) significantly increased its holdings in domestic stocks, reaching a market value of 247.4 trillion KRW by the end of 2025, focusing on key sectors [50]. - Reforms also included improving short-selling regulations, which increased market participation and led to a surge in retail investor activity, with retail trading accounting for 78% of total trading [60][61]. Group 4: Retail Investor Dynamics - The number of active retail investors surged from 72 million in April 2025 to 98 million by February 2026, indicating widespread participation in the stock market [67]. - Retail investors' total holdings increased from 380 trillion KRW to 920 trillion KRW, reflecting a 142% growth [71]. - Despite the overall market gains, the average profit for retail investors was only about 255,000 KRW, highlighting that many investors did not benefit proportionately from the market's rise [75][78].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the shipping industry, highlighting the upward potential in both oil and dry bulk markets [7]. Core Insights - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, have led to an increase in VLCC freight rates, with the Clarksons VLCC-TCE index rising to $116,000, a week-on-week increase of 17% [10][11]. - The BDI index has shown resilience during the off-season, closing at 2148 points, up 21.9% week-on-week, with significant increases in various vessel types [23][24]. Summary by Sections Oil Shipping - The ongoing tensions in the Middle East have resulted in a significant rise in VLCC freight rates, particularly on the Middle East to China route, which saw a 27% increase to $127,000 per day [10][11]. - The market fundamentals are weakening, with a slowdown in cargo availability and a lack of new cargo in the US Gulf market, leading to a decline in overall market activity [10][11]. Dry Bulk Shipping - The BDI index has shown a remarkable performance during the off-season, with a year-on-year increase of 89% in January, averaging 1759 points [24]. - The strong performance of the BCI index, which increased by 121% year-on-year, is attributed to supply constraints and steady demand from Brazil and West Africa [24]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the potential for upward trends in both oil and dry bulk markets, recommending companies such as China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping Energy [27]. - For dry bulk, the report suggests companies like Haitong Development and Pacific Shipping, citing favorable supply and demand dynamics [28]. Industry Data Tracking - Recent data shows a year-on-year increase of 8.3% in domestic air passenger volume, with average ticket prices rising by 4.3% [29]. - The SCFI index has decreased by 10% week-on-week, indicating a decline in container shipping rates [50].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, recommending stocks such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in charter rates for VLCCs, which rose by 4.62% to $62,250 per day, and Cape rates increased by 5.37% to $26,475 per day, indicating a strong correlation between commodity prices and shipping rates [4]. - New ship prices are rising alongside second-hand ship prices, with the new ship composite index increasing by 0.07 to 184.76 points, suggesting a favorable market for shipbuilders [4]. - The report notes that the oil tanker market remains robust, with VLCC rates averaging around $105,090 per day, despite a recent decline in rates due to increased supply [4]. - The dry bulk market is experiencing a rebound, with the BDI index recording a 12.4% increase to 1,762 points, driven by increased grain exports from South America [4]. - The air transport sector is expected to see significant improvements in profitability due to rising passenger volumes and constrained supply, marking a potential golden era for airlines [4]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market - The shipping market is experiencing a strong correlation with commodity prices, with VLCC and Cape rates showing significant increases [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of geopolitical factors and supply constraints in maintaining high shipping rates [4]. New Ship Prices - New ship prices are on the rise, reflecting the overall health of the shipping market, with a slight increase in the new ship composite index [4]. Oil Tanker Market - The oil tanker market remains strong, with high average rates for VLCCs and a stable demand despite recent fluctuations [4]. Dry Bulk Market - The dry bulk market is witnessing a rebound, particularly in the Capesize segment, driven by favorable export conditions from South America [4]. Air Transport Sector - The air transport sector is poised for significant growth, with airlines expected to benefit from increased passenger volumes and a constrained supply of aircraft [4]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The logistics sector is seeing a concentration of market share among leading companies, with a focus on firms like ZTO Express and YTO Express, which are expected to maintain their competitive advantages [4].

证券日报网1月21日讯，招商轮船（601872）在接受调研者提问时表示，公司一直采用比较灵活的策 略，在做好市场经营的基础上不排除适时处置少量老旧船舶，同时争取租入运力补充(前期有披露，去 年已经有成功尝试联合石油公司期租租入一艘VLCC)，如之前相关公告披露，公司也已经锁定了8艘 VLCC订单(5艘自有和3艘长期租入)将在2027至2028年交付，未来几年老旧油轮的更新正按公司船队既 定部署推进。 ...

Core Insights - The Shandong Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology, along with eight other departments, has issued a work plan aimed at stabilizing growth in the shipbuilding and marine engineering equipment industry, targeting over 10% revenue growth by the end of the year [1] - The plan emphasizes the rapid development of new growth points such as new energy vessels and high-end marine engineering equipment, with a focus on maintaining over 60% in the completion volume, new orders, and backlog of new energy-powered vessels [1] Industry Development - Shandong aims to consolidate its traditional advantages in semi-submersible drilling and production platforms, FPSOs, while also expanding into high-end marine engineering equipment such as FLNGs, large aquaculture vessels, and offshore launch platforms [1] - The focus will be on enhancing R&D capabilities for cutting-edge equipment technologies, including underwater robots, marine monitoring sensors, and underwater energy storage devices [1] Ship Type Diversification - The variety of ocean-going vessel types will be accelerated, with a push for large bulk carriers and mineral carriers powered by new fuels like LNG, methanol, and ammonia, as well as hybrid high-end passenger ferries [1] - The development of high-tech vessels such as VLCCs, container ships with capacities over 10,000 TEU, chemical tankers, and unmanned vessels will be prioritized, alongside preparing for the technology reserves needed for large LNG carriers and new fuel bunkering vessels [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's performance relative to the overall market [12]. Core Insights - The shipping market is expected to see significant growth in Q4 2025, driven by strong VLCC freight rates and structural changes in trade dynamics, including new refinery capacities and geopolitical shifts [4]. - The aviation sector is projected to enter a golden era, with passenger transport expected to reach 770 million in 2025, marking a 5.5% increase from 2024 and a 16.7% increase from 2019 [4]. - The report highlights a shift in the shipping industry from supply-driven to demand-driven dynamics, particularly in shipbuilding, as older vessels are replaced [4]. - The logistics and freight forwarding sectors are facing challenges due to trade tensions, impacting profit margins and demand [4]. Summary by Sections Shipping - Q4 2025 VLCC freight rates are expected to average around $95,500 per day, with a projected demand increase of 1.7% from new refinery capacities and a 2.1% increase from compliance changes in Venezuelan oil [4]. - The dry bulk market is also showing strong performance, with Cape-sized vessel rates expected to rise by 20% to $27,600 per day [4]. - The report estimates that COSCO Shipping Energy's Q4 earnings will be approximately 1.9 billion RMB, while China Merchants Energy's will be around 2.9 billion RMB [4]. Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding sector is experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, with second-hand ship prices rising for 11 consecutive months, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [4]. Freight Forwarding - The freight forwarding sector is facing profit margin compression due to trade frictions, with the CCFI index expected to decline by 26% in Q4 2025 [4]. Aviation - The Chinese aviation market is expected to achieve a profit of 6.5 billion RMB in 2025, with major airlines like China Eastern Airlines anticipated to see significant performance improvements [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of international routes as passenger volumes are expected to grow, driven by a recovery in outbound travel [4]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is projected to see a 5% year-on-year growth in Q4, driven by price increases and seasonal demand, despite challenges from trade policies [4]. Road and Rail - The report notes a slowdown in highway traffic growth, while rail passenger and freight volumes continue to increase, with recommendations for specific companies in the sector [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, particularly focusing on VLCC and medium-sized oil tankers, indicating a strong demand due to geopolitical changes and seasonal shifts in shipping patterns [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in VLCC freight rates, with a 45% week-on-week rebound to $63,608 per day, driven by unexpected demand from the Middle East [4]. - New ship prices remain strong, with a slight weekly decline of 0.11%, indicating a robust pricing power in the shipbuilding sector [4]. - The aviation sector is expected to experience a significant improvement in profitability due to supply constraints and increasing passenger volumes, marking a potential golden era for airlines [4]. - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of competition, with three potential scenarios outlined for future industry dynamics [4]. Summary by Sections Shipping Industry - The report notes a structural growth in VLCC demand, with compliance in Venezuelan oil exports potentially increasing transport volumes by approximately 1.4% [4]. - The average freight rate for VLCCs from the Middle East to the Far East reached $66,240 per day, reflecting a 71% increase from the previous week [4]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of second-hand ship prices and suggests continued monitoring of companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [4]. Aviation Sector - The report anticipates a significant uplift in airline profitability due to historical high passenger load factors and a constrained supply of aircraft [4]. - Airlines such as China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines are highlighted as key players to watch in this sector [4]. Express Delivery - The report discusses the potential for industry consolidation and improved profitability in the express delivery sector, with companies like Shentong Express and YTO Express being noted for their competitive advantages [4]. Road and Rail Transport - The report indicates resilience in railway freight volumes and highway truck traffic, with a slight decrease in recent weeks but overall stability expected [4]. - The report suggests that high-dividend investment themes and potential value management catalysts in the highway sector are worth monitoring [4].