证券研究报告 油运高景气传导至造船，新造船价有望结束分化整体回升 ——2026年3月造船观察 证券分析师： 王晨鉴 A0230525030001 闫海 A0230519010004 2026.3.24 核心观点：下游航运景气度持续上升，船舶ETF上市行业流动性增强 ◼ 油轮景气度加速向造船传导：VLCC即期运价与期租维持高位，二手船价持续上行，景气度传导有望加速。 ◼ 恒力重工为油轮订单爆发最直接受益者，具备持续接单能力。 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 资料来源：克拉克森数据库，申万宏源研究 • 油轮即期运价与期租大幅上涨，二手船价持续上行，反映市场高景气度。油运市场供给端约束确定性强，需求端存在黑油与合规油结构变化逻 辑，中周期上行态势确定性较强。当前VLCC最新1年期租已经提升至14万美元/天，反映市场供给紧缺，景气度持续高位。 • 高景气度下船东加速下单，油轮已连续2个月成为造船新签订单主力。 • 恒力重工为VLCC手持订单量全球第一。当前多数主流船厂产能饱和，正处于产能爬坡阶段的恒力重工接单能力突出。2026年以来恒力重工已 新签超40艘VLCC，手持订单金额自年初195亿 ...

交通运输 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2026 年 3 月 22 日 强于大市 交通运输行业周报 霍尔木兹通航受阻下 VLCC 转向延布红海通 道，短期替代方案情景催生投资机会值得关注 航运方面，霍尔木兹通航受阻下 VLCC 转向延布红海通道，西非航线补位对冲 外运缺口。航空货运方面，中东局势扰动外溢导致亚欧空运运力仍偏紧且附加 费承压，国泰货运取消迪拜与利雅得货班至 3 月 31 日并增投欧洲运力。交通新 业态方面，英伟达宣布扩大与 Uber、Lyft 合作并开源推理 VLA 模型 Alpamayo 1，Robotaxi 计划于 2027 年起在美多城落地。低空经济方面，沃飞长空在成都 举办供应链大会集结百余家伙伴，发布百亿机遇清单并获工行 100 亿元授信支 持。国内首个"路空一体"汽车试验场投运，低空飞行器测试验证基础设施迈 出关键一步。 核心观点 ①霍尔木兹通航受阻下 VLCC 转向延布红海通道，西非航线补位对冲外运缺 口。中东局势升级致霍尔木兹通航实质受阻，亿海蓝 AIS 监测显示中资 VLCC 在延布港集结借沙特东西管道开辟绕行通道，并同步增配西非供给以对冲波斯 湾外运中断风险。②中东局势扰动 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, particularly emphasizing the value of Chinese tanker assets as a safe haven [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in Aframax tanker rates, which surged by 54% to $188,000 per day, driven by geopolitical tensions and changes in trade routes [2]. - The report recommends several companies, including China Merchants Energy Shipping, COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation, and China Merchants South China Shipping, as key players to watch in the sector [2]. - The report notes that the global oil trade routes are being reassessed, with the price at Yanbu port reaching $287,000 per day, indicating strong demand and potential for further growth [2]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market Performance - The transportation index fell by 2.65%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.46 percentage points, with the shipping sector showing the largest gain of 1.21% among sub-sectors [4]. - The Baltic Dry Index reported a slight decrease of 0.05%, while the crude oil tanker index increased by 4.22% [4]. Oil Transportation - The report indicates that the average VLCC rate increased by 22% week-on-week, reaching $230,208 per day, with specific routes like the Middle East to China remaining stable at $410,872 per day [2]. - The report emphasizes the potential for increased volumes in the Atlantic market due to significant price differentials and strategic oil reserve releases [2]. Product Oil Transportation - The LR2-TC1 rate rose by 37% to $118,991 per day, driven by geopolitical factors affecting Middle Eastern exports [2]. - The report notes a 20% increase in MR average rates, reflecting a recovery in the Atlantic market [2]. Dry Bulk Shipping - The report mentions that the BDI recorded a slight decrease, but larger vessels like Capesize saw a 3.1% increase in rates, indicating resilience in the market [2]. - The report highlights increased coal exports from Indonesia and Australia, supporting Panamax rates [2]. Air Transportation - The report discusses the ongoing challenges in the aircraft manufacturing supply chain and the aging fleet, which is expected to constrain supply [2]. - Despite short-term pressures from rising oil prices, the long-term outlook for the air transport sector remains positive [2]. Express Delivery - The report anticipates a recovery in delivery fees due to new policies, benefiting leading companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express [2]. - The report highlights the growth potential of J&T Express in Southeast Asia [2]. Rail and Road Transportation - The report notes resilience in rail freight volumes and highway truck traffic, with significant week-on-week increases reported [2]. - It suggests that traditional high-dividend investment themes and potential value management catalysts in the highway sector are worth monitoring [2].

••• 2022 • 2025 • VLCC 2 ••••• / CONTENTS 3 / 4 / 5 • 回顾航运业数十年历史，"超级牛市"需两大成因——"需求意外"+"供给瓶颈"。"超级牛市"将提供业绩估值双重空间 • 过去四年，油运市场上演超预期跨年度景气上行。即使没有地缘冲突，我们认为油运也将两阶段成就过去数十年首次"超级牛市" • 【第一阶段】自2022年："地缘冲突"驱动全球原油贸易重构，油运产能利用率升至阈值，景气显著上升且持续两年 • 【第二阶段】自2025下半年："原油增产"驱动油运需求继续增长，油运产能利用率越过阈值升至高位，进入高景气且将持续 • 特别值得关注，韩国长锦商船积极控制VLCC超百艘，高产能利用率下将提升供需边际变化控制力，为运价盈利表现"锦上添花" • 展望：未来数年，原油增产将持续，油轮合规供给刚性，供需将继续向好。即使没有地缘冲突，也将成就高景气且可持续"超级牛市" • 重点提示：若未来俄乌和谈，考虑欧盟对能源安全的战略态度，预计原油贸易重构回退或有限，相关影子船队出清有望进一步对冲影响 - 2022年-24上半年：景气显著上升，产能利用率升至阈值——俄欧"舍近求远"， ...

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，油运估值端和资产端结构性机会有望延续，地缘冲突带来的 供应链重构，成为本轮油运周期的核心驱动。Sinokor运力快速扩张带来的集中度提升成为本轮周期 VLCC供给端前所未有的革命性变化，料通过和MSC、Trafigura形成类联盟，开创在油轮市场部分时 段"停航挺价"的先例。相对于集装箱和干散货市场，VLCC市场规模相对较小，"类联盟"趋势&"停航挺 价"等对运价机制重塑亦更为显著和持久。地缘因素主导背景下，伊朗事件等地缘事件强化油运行业周 期动能，2026年油运龙头利润有望创新高。 中信证券主要观点如下： 风险因素： VLCC运力规模大幅增长；下游补库需求不及预期；Sinokor运力扩张不及预期；地缘冲突变动超预期。 Sinokor运力快速扩张带来的集中度提升成为本轮VLCC供给端前所未有的革命性变化，料通过和MSC、 Trafigura形成类联盟，开创油轮市场部分时段"停航挺价"的先例，再次强调"重视运价机制重塑"。通过 购买二手船舶+期租运力锁定的VLCC运力扩张，目前形成VLCC历史最大运力池POOL。行业供给端由 分散市场向"准联盟化"结构演变，议价能力明显增 ...

产业链传导顺序上，油价上行初期通常先利好综合运营商与炼化企业，核心逻 辑是"低价购入原油、高价销售成品油"带来的库存收益；但在高油价持续上 行阶段，下游石化因成本难以顺利转嫁，盈利可能承压。再往后，油服与油气 装备环节的景气更直接取决于油价上行对上游资本开支的驱动，属于更偏"资 本开支周期主线"的受益方向；后期则体现为开发与运输等环节的进一步传导。 工程机械内销预期存在向上差：2 月受春节影响内销下滑，但 3 月草根 调研预期同比增 20%+；出口端维持强势（1-2 月累计增 39%），回调 即是加仓窗口。 地缘政治对工业板块实质影响有限：多数机械公司中东收入占比不足 5%，且具备本土化产能与配件站，发货正常，市场情绪波动不改基本面 趋势。 若从盈利与股价弹性比较，整体呈现油服板块弹性最高，其次为炼化，再到上 游材料与油运，最后为"三桶油"。其中，油服与油服设备及部分民营企业弹 性更强，主要因订单与新品带来的高贝塔属性，ROE 弹性相对更高；综合运营 商在油价上行初期敏感度较强，但持续经营往往受政策约束，更偏"高确定性 与稳定性"的特征。 在近期地缘政治冲突升级的宏观背景下，原油价格与油运运价的市场表现如何？ ...

好的，各位投资者大家周日的晚上好，我是财通宏观张伟。这个首先，非常欢迎大家参加 我们今天晚上这样一个活动。最近中东的这个战况变化的比较快，然后确实是很多年没有 遇到过的这事情了，这个我相信不光是我了，可能我们行业从业很多年的前辈，应该都没 有经历过这样的一个这个情况。所以大家在这最近这个周末，来找到我们，来来来问这个 问题，也比较多，所以我们今天也就请到了一个非常资深，非常实实战派的专家，来帮我 们一起回答。 现在，这个中东的问题，对于全球的原油运输，以及油价。相关的这样一个影响，那么在 正式开始之前，我先简单介绍一下我们今天邀请到的专家。好的，那么今天的专家，有这 个 14 年的原油和相关的这个产品运输的实操的经验，然后从这个现在主要是在负责相关 的这个油运的一些操作的一些交流和这个培训。那么在这在在在这之前，专家曾经在国内 头部的能源公司，这个主要负责原油运输的这个。一线的这个实际操作，然后也经常在中 东地区这个实际去参与这个原油运输，对于相关的一些规则，然后实际的情况，以及目前 的一些数据，还是了解得非常清楚的。 那我们今天主要分两两个部分，那第一部分，我们这个把这个我大概收集了一下大家最关 心的几个问 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on the Shipbuilding Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the shipbuilding industry, particularly the impact of the US-Iran conflict on shipping and shipbuilding dynamics [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a 30% increase in shipping routes from the Middle East to Europe, resulting in reduced effective capacity and increased freight rates, with VLCC one-year charter rates surpassing $100,000 per day, a new high since 2000 [1][9]. - The shipbuilding industry's recovery is ongoing, with new orders rebounding in January-February 2026 despite stable ship prices. The peak of this order cycle is expected around 2027-2028, driven by a significant replacement cycle for bulk carriers [1][12]. - Supply constraints are evident, with total industry capacity reduced by 60%-70% from the previous peak. Since 2021, capacity has shown limited upward elasticity, with only a few players like ST Songfa entering the market [1][12]. - Demand structure is diverging, with container ships holding about 30% of orders and a new energy adoption rate exceeding 30%, while oil tankers and bulk carriers have only slightly over 10% of orders, indicating substantial demand for clean energy upgrades and vessel replacements [1][13]. Geopolitical Impact - The US-Israel military actions against Iran and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz have significant implications for shipping and shipbuilding, affecting operational efficiency and capacity [3][4][6]. - The Strait of Hormuz is crucial for global oil and LNG transport, with about 20% of the world's oil and LNG passing through it. Disruptions here lead to longer shipping routes, reduced efficiency, and increased freight rates [4][7]. Oil Price Dynamics - Historical analysis shows that geopolitical events like those involving Iran act as accelerators rather than primary drivers of oil price trends. For instance, oil prices spiked to around $100 per barrel following the closure of the Strait, but sustainability of this price level depends on the duration of the conflict [5][6]. Shipping Market Performance - Recent trends indicate that freight rates for oil tankers and bulk carriers are likely to rise, with VLCC spot rates reaching their highest since 2000. Rising oil prices are increasing operational costs for shipowners, further pushing freight rates up [9][11]. - The new shipbuilding market is experiencing a chain reaction where disruptions lead to reduced turnover rates, which in turn increases freight rates and encourages shipowners to place new orders [9][10]. Future Order Trends - The shipbuilding industry has transitioned from a "container ship boom" phase (2021-2025) to an "oil tanker boom" phase since late 2025. The most significant future orders are expected for bulk carriers, although a large-scale replacement cycle has yet to commence [12][16]. - Supply-side constraints remain, with limited capacity recovery despite some shipyards reopening. The overall capacity is still significantly lower than previous peaks [12][16]. Investment Opportunities - The investment logic for 2026 focuses on the upward cycle of civil shipbuilding and anticipated capital operations, particularly in companies like China Shipbuilding, China Shipbuilding Defense, and ST Songfa, which are expected to benefit from rising freight rates and new ship orders [2][15][16]. - Potential catalysts for investment include capital operations within the China Shipbuilding Group and the possibility of military ship demand increasing, which could present significant opportunities for the shipbuilding sector [16]. Conclusion - The shipbuilding industry is currently navigating a complex landscape influenced by geopolitical tensions, supply-demand dynamics, and evolving market conditions. The outlook remains positive, with significant opportunities for growth and investment in the coming years [16].

Summary of Conference Call on Maritime Industry Amidst Middle East Conflict Industry Overview - The maritime industry is currently facing significant disruptions due to the conflict in the Middle East, particularly the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has reduced shipping traffic to approximately 1 vessel per day, effectively halting operations [1][4] - The supply-demand imbalance has driven Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) rates to a historical high of $480,000 [1] Key Points and Arguments - The shift in the maritime industry's underlying logic from "efficiency first" to "safety first" is evident, with companies capable of ensuring safe passage now commanding higher risk premiums [1][8] - The blockade has resulted in a drastic drop in oil shipping volumes, with the daily passage through the Strait of Hormuz falling from 55 vessels to just 1 vessel, indicating a near-total halt in operations [4] - The attack on Saudi oil facilities and the closure of Qatar's LNG plant have led to a 42% surge in European gas prices, indicating a ripple effect across the energy supply chain [5][6] - The shipping rates for VLCCs on the Middle East to China route surged from over $200,000 to $420,000, and further to approximately $480,000, driven by a combination of tightening supply and geopolitical tensions [3] Additional Important Insights - The ability of land pipelines from Saudi Arabia and the UAE to replace the lost shipping capacity is limited, providing only about 6.8 million barrels per day, which is less than 50% of the Strait's capacity [4] - The maritime industry is experiencing a shift in valuation frameworks, with companies that can ensure safe delivery gaining a competitive edge [8][9] - The potential for increased shipping demand from Iran, should sanctions be lifted, could sustain high freight rates even if geopolitical tensions ease [9][11] - The impact of the deteriorating situation in the Red Sea has led to container shipping companies like MSC suspending bookings and imposing war surcharges of $2,000 to $3,000 per container [7] Investment Opportunities - Companies such as China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping Energy are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of rising freight rates, with profits expected to increase by approximately 1 to 1.1 billion yuan for every $10,000 increase in freight rates [2][10] - The focus on investment opportunities extends to the container shipping sector, particularly companies like ZIM Integrated Shipping Services and major players in LNG and refined oil transportation [10] Future Monitoring and Market Dynamics - Key variables to monitor include the selection of Iran's new leadership and their foreign policy direction, which will significantly influence future shipping rates and market stability [11] - The expectation is that both the U.S. and Iran prefer to avoid prolonged conflict, leading to negotiations that will ultimately determine the shipping rate equilibrium in 2026 [11]

Summary of Conference Call on Oil Transportation Market Dynamics Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the oil transportation market, particularly focusing on the implications of the recent events in the Strait of Hormuz and their impact on the oil shipping industry [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Market Dynamics - The potential blockage of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a restructuring of VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) routes towards the Atlantic Basin, significantly increasing travel distances and absorbing effective capacity [1]. - If the Strait is reopened, a concentrated demand for replenishment could drive freight rates higher, potentially exceeding expectations [1]. - The core risk for the oil transportation industry lies in the sustained high oil prices, which could trigger systemic shocks rather than the form of blockade itself [1][3]. Supply Chain and Capacity - The sanctions on Iran have resulted in a significant amount of crude oil being parked offshore, with approximately 163 VLCCs affected, leading to a structural change in effective capacity supply [1][4]. - The shadow fleet, which constitutes over 16% of the total fleet, has about half of its vessels unable to operate normally, resulting in an effective capacity loss of around 8% [4]. - Oil tankers currently anchored in the Persian Gulf account for 15%-20% of global capacity, with a short-term outlook of being "frozen" or on hold due to rising risks [4]. Demand Side Analysis - China's necessity for oil replenishment has increased, with Iranian crude accounting for 10%-15% of its import structure, translating to approximately 1.5 million barrels per day [5]. - If Iranian supply is disrupted, OPEC may increase production, which could expand compliant market space and drive demand for compliant vessels, thus benefiting freight rates [5]. Impact on Product Oil Transportation - The disruption of Middle Eastern exports could elevate prices for diesel and jet fuel, triggering a restructuring of the refined oil supply chain [6]. - Europe may shift its procurement to the U.S. Gulf or further regions, benefiting large product tankers like LR2 and LR1, while MR tankers may see regional benefits due to increased trade activity [6]. Investment Insights - The valuation differences among oil shipping stocks have narrowed significantly, with companies like COSCO Shipping Energy experiencing substantial price increases [7]. - Key metrics for overseas oil shipping companies include fleet size and structure, as well as the ratio of spot to time charter contracts [8]. Financial Metrics - Overseas companies benefit from low tax burdens and generous dividends, with dividend yields exceeding 15% for many [9]. - Free cash flow (FCF) yields for most companies are above 30%, with some nearing 40%, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [9]. Risk Assessment - The primary risk remains the potential for sustained high oil prices, which could lead to significant economic downturns and reduced oil consumption [13]. - The uncertainty surrounding geopolitical events may lead to short-term disruptions, but the long-term trend for the oil shipping industry remains bullish [12]. Additional Important Insights - The historical performance of shipping stocks can provide insights into current market dynamics, with parallels drawn to past events affecting freight rates and stock prices [12]. - The current market conditions suggest a favorable risk-reward profile for investments in the oil shipping sector, with limited downside and significant upside potential [11].