Otter Tail (OTTR) Q1 2025 Earnings Call May 06, 2025 11:00 AM ET Speaker0 Good morning, and welcome to Otter Tail Corporation's First Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. We will hold a question and answer session after the prepared remarks. I will now turn the call over to the company for their opening comments. Speaker1 Good morning, and welcome to our first quarter earnings conference call. My name is Tyler Nelson. I'm Otter Tail Corporation's Vice Presiden ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - AAM's Q1 2025 sales were $1.41 billion, down from $1.61 billion in Q1 2024 [20] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $177.3 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 12.6%, compared to $205.6 million and 12.8% in the previous year [22] - GAAP net income was $7.1 million or $0.06 per share in Q1 2025, down from $20.5 million or $0.17 per share in Q1 2024 [26] - Adjusted free cash flow was a use of $3.9 million in Q1 2025, an improvement from the prior year [26][27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - North American production decreased approximately 5% year-over-year [8] - The Metal Form business unit showed improved EBITDA margins, increasing by 150 basis points year-over-year [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - AAM's sales were impacted by a lower volume mix, resulting in a decrease of $166 million primarily due to lower overall volumes in North America [21] - Foreign exchange fluctuations, particularly from a weaker Brazilian real, contributed to a sales reduction of approximately $28 million [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - AAM exited its joint ventures in China, collecting approximately $30 million in cash, as part of a strategy to focus on core businesses and capital allocation [9] - The company is on track to close the transformational transaction with Dali by Q4 2025, which is expected to yield significant synergies of approximately $300 million [11][12] - AAM aims to enhance its EV portfolio and maintain a balanced capital allocation policy post-acquisition [18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged macro uncertainties due to new trade policies but emphasized a strategy of local sourcing, with 90% of products produced in North America being USMCA compliant [13] - The company updated its 2025 guidance, targeting sales between $5.65 billion and $5.95 billion, with adjusted EBITDA expected to be between $665 million and $745 million [17][32] - Management expressed confidence in navigating tariff impacts and leveraging opportunities presented by onshoring trends [34] Other Important Information - AAM's net debt stood at $2.1 billion with a net leverage ratio of 2.9x as of March 31, 2025 [27] - The company maintained a strong cash position of over $500 million due to operational performance and proceeds from joint venture sales [27] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on future contingencies and utilization of excess capacity - Management indicated that they have open capacity in several facilities and are willing to make adjustments based on customer needs [40][41] Question: Tariff exposure for Dali - Management noted that Dali has a similar production footprint and is managing tariff exposure similarly to AAM [44] Question: GM's volume outlook and its impact on guidance - Management confirmed that the guidance incorporates GM's strong demand for full-size trucks, expecting production in the range of 1.3 million to 1.4 million units [47][48] Question: Impact of macro volatility on the Dali transaction - Management stated that macro volatility has not complicated the process and both companies are focused on local sourcing [50] Question: Near-term production schedules - Management acknowledged some volatility in customer schedules but noted strong performance in core platforms [56][58] Question: Tariff policies and their impact - Management confirmed that under current USMCA policies, tariff impacts are limited, and they are working to ensure compliance [64][65] Question: Long-term implications of ICE and EV market changes - Management expressed that continued ICE production is beneficial for cash flow, while EV growth will be slower than previously projected [102][104]

Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite have all experienced double-digit percentage declines, with the Nasdaq entering a bear market with a loss exceeding 20% from its all-time high [2][3] - The recent declines have been characterized by their rapid velocity, with significant single-session point and percentage declines recorded [3] Tariff Policy Impact - President Trump's tariff policy has been a pivotal factor in the recent market downturn, with a 10% global tariff and higher reciprocal tariffs on countries with negative trade balances with the U.S. announced [4][5] - The potential for tariffs to increase domestic goods prices and reignite inflation is a concern, as input tariffs could make U.S. products less competitive [6] - Tariffs may also harm trade relations and create uncertainty in the market, as the president frequently changes which products or countries are affected [7] Investment Opportunities - The current market volatility presents an opportunity for long-term investors to acquire stocks at discounted prices [8] - Johnson & Johnson offers a 3.31% yield and has increased its annual payout for 63 consecutive years, indicating a strong dividend history [9] - Johnson & Johnson holds a AAA credit rating, reflecting confidence in its ability to service and repay debts [10][11] - The company's operating model is expected to remain stable despite tariff concerns, as demand for healthcare products is consistent [12] - Johnson & Johnson's focus on novel-drug development and its historically inexpensive stock valuation (14 times forward-year earnings) make it an attractive investment [14][15] Sirius XM Holdings - Sirius XM Holdings provides a 5.36% yield and operates as a legal monopoly in satellite radio, giving it pricing power over competitors [16][17] - The company generates 76% of its net sales from self-pay subscriptions, making it less vulnerable to economic downturns compared to traditional radio operators reliant on advertising [19] - Sirius XM's stock is valued at 6.6 times forward-year earnings, representing a 55% discount to its average forward P/E multiple from 2019 to 2024 [20]

Core Insights - Homebuilding stocks received a significant boost after President Trump excluded Canadian lumber from new tariffs, which is seen as a major win for the housing industry [1][3][4] - The exception for Canada and Mexico protects critical construction materials, alleviating concerns over rising costs and supply disruptions [3][4][10] Homebuilding Industry Performance - Shares of major homebuilders experienced notable gains, with D.R. Horton rising 4.6%, Dream Finders Homes increasing by 5.1%, and NVR up by 4.2% [2] - The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF also rose by 2%, indicating positive investor sentiment towards the sector [2] Tariff Impact on Material Costs - Canada supplies approximately 85% of U.S. softwood lumber imports, which constitutes nearly 25% of domestic supply, making the tariff exemption crucial for builders [4] - Building material costs have surged by 34% since December 2020, significantly impacting profitability in the homebuilding sector [5] Investor Sentiment and Stock Performance - The stock surge suggests that investors are now pricing in lower-than-expected cost pressures, particularly for companies reliant on wood framing and Canadian lumber [6] - The Zacks Building Products - Home Builders industry has declined by 13.5% this year, performing better than the S&P 500's 14.1% decline [7] Company-Specific Insights - D.R. Horton is focusing on strategic investments in homebuilding lots and has a projected earnings growth rate of 18.1% over the next three to five years [12] - Dream Finders Homes operates with a lean model, relying on local subcontractors, which reduces its need for imported materials [13] - NVR's lot purchase agreement model enhances construction efficiency, with lots controlled increasing by 14.8% year-over-year [13] - Lennar benefits from increased cycle times and a digital marketing approach to align home sales with construction pace [14][15] - PulteGroup's regional diversification and investment in supply chain technology help mitigate reliance on imports [16]