'All risk, no reward': China spectacle shows dangers of Trump trade policy https://t.co/8eE2Qr66fL ...

overseas where Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Chinese leader Xihinping as well as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at a summit in China yesterday. As the New York Times reports, it was a scene almost certainly intended for an audience on the other side of the world. The leaders of China, Russia, and India, the three largest powers not aligned with the West, smiling and laughing like good friends as they greeted each other.Analysts told the paper the friendliness between Mr. . Shei and Mr. . Pu ...

Impact of Immigration Policies and Raids - Raids and immigration policy changes have instilled fear in the immigrant workforce, leading to potential self-deportation [1] - Accommodation and food services sectors in California, heavily reliant on immigrant labor, are particularly vulnerable [1] - Businesses in Los Angeles experienced a chilling effect, impacting tourism, with Open Table data showing a 3% year-on-year dining decline from June 7th to 21st [1] - One restaurant in downtown LA saw a 70% sales decline in June due to closures and curfews [1] Economic Contributions of Immigrants - Undocumented immigrants in California contribute approximately 23 billion dollars annually in state, federal, and local taxes [1] - Nearly half of their 10 billion dollars in state and local taxes come from sales and excise taxes due to their spending power [1] Trade and Tariffs - California faces the highest tariff burden in the US, totaling 113 billion dollars [1] - Businesses are facing increased costs due to tariffs on imported goods, such as French wine and Japanese sake [1] Business Environment Challenges - Businesses are facing a challenging environment due to the pandemic, Hollywood writer strikes, fires, and a tougher local regulatory landscape [1]

Investment & Economic Outlook - US orders for business equipment increased in July more than projected [1] - Companies are moving forward on investment plans [1] - Trade and tax policy uncertainty gradually diminishes [1]

Group 1 - The de minimis exemption, allowing duty-free entry for shipments valued under $800, is set to end following President Trump's executive order, impacting postal carriers across Europe [2][3] - Major European postal services, including those in Germany, Spain, France, Belgium, Finland, Denmark, and others, are suspending shipments to the U.S. due to the inability to adapt their systems to the new customs requirements [4][5][6] - The suspension of shipments is expected to primarily affect smaller orders from American consumers purchasing from smaller European businesses, while larger retailers are less impacted as they typically do not rely on the de minimis exemption [8][9] Group 2 - DHL has announced it will no longer accept parcels destined for the U.S. due to unresolved questions regarding customs duties and data transmission to U.S. Customs and Border Protection [4] - Spain's national post office, Correos, indicated that it requires more time to adjust its systems to comply with the new requirements, leading to a suspension of shipments [5][6] - Finland's post office has stopped accepting all postal items bound for the U.S., including gifts and letters, due to airline refusals to transport these items [7]

Key Individuals and Their Roles - Scott Bessant, previously a hedge fund manager focused on predicting outcomes, now shapes outcomes by presenting President Trump with options [1][2][4] - Stan Druckenmiller, Bessant's mentor, is considered potentially the best investor in modern history [2] - Steve Mnuchin, Trump's former administration member, provides insight on succeeding within the Trump administration [9] Bessant's Position and Influence - Bessant has the ear of the president, which is viewed positively from a market perspective [3] - Bessant's role is to present options and potential outcomes to President Trump, rather than offering advice [4] - The industry is closely watching for potential actions or resignation of Bessant, drawing parallels to the high turnover in Trump's first term [7][8] Trade Policy and Tariffs - In 2024, Bessant advocated against maximalist tariffs, suggesting a possible global 10% tariff [11] - Currently, Bessant embraces Trump's maximum pressure campaign on trade, claiming it has yielded results [12] Investment Philosophy - Bessant identified opportunities in the clash between theory and practice, now applying this in his current role [6] - Bessant transitioned from studying practitioners (central bank governors and finance ministers) to being under scrutiny himself [7]

The way MAGA paints it, Trump’s trade policy is a triumph, because other countries are eating higher tariffs, while US Customs rakes in nigh on $30bn a month.This a fundamental misunderstanding of trade https://t.co/2JyXDAyWyt ...

Financial Performance - Lucid achieved its sixth consecutive record quarter in deliveries and record production in Q2 [2] - Trade policies and tariffs negatively impacted Lucid's gross margin in Q2, but the company expects it to even out for the remainder of the year [2] - Lucid's adjusted IBITDA is negative $632 million, with $4.86 billion in liquidity, expected to last until the second half of next year [8][9] Supply Chain & Raw Materials - Lucid overcame challenges related to magnet availability in Q2, securing licenses for rare earth materials for the remainder of the year [3][5] - Lucid is diversifying its raw material sourcing, including changing magnet chemistry, exploring alternative rare earth sources, and sourcing from different markets [5] - While still utilizing a global supply chain, Lucid sources a small percentage of parts for Gravity and Air from China [12][13] - Lucid is increasing its resilience by sourcing battery cells from the US, with the majority coming from the new Panasonic plant in Kansas [14] - Lucid has also secured deals with graphite suppliers to ensure raw material availability for battery cell production [15] Partnerships & Future Plans - Lucid is partnering with Uber and Neuro to develop autonomous vehicles, with plans to roll them out starting in late 2026 [6][7] - Lucid is confident in its ability to integrate autonomous driving technology into its vehicles, particularly the Gravity model [7] Capital & Funding - Lucid is funded until the second half of next year and will opportunistically raise capital if needed [9][10]

Trade Negotiations & Agreements - Deals with numerous countries are largely set, with paperwork to be finalized in the coming weeks or months [1][2] - Agreements are premised on countries opening their markets and fulfilling investment/purchase commitments [12] - The administration is focused on implementing reached deals and monitoring compliance, with potential tariff reinstatement for non-compliance [9][10][11][12] Trade Deficit & Tariffs - Tariff rates are largely determined by a country's trade deficit with the United States and their willingness to address it [3] - High tariffs are imposed on countries where a path forward on reducing the trade deficit and opening markets could not be fully resolved [5] - A 40% additional tariff will be imposed on sham transshipment, which has always been illegal [17] Country-Specific Trade Relations - The US has a nearly $40 billion trade deficit with Switzerland, and was unable to reach an agreement to reduce it [4] - Indonesia has made commitments on tariff levels and non-tariff barriers, including removing tariffs and addressing agricultural inspections and digital trade [10][11] Policy & Strategy - The administration is shifting from a 70-year policy based on purely efficiency to a new policy based on fair, balanced trade [19] - The president has the authority to regulate imports, and the administration is confident in its legal position regarding tariffs [25] - The administration is prepared to use whatever tools are necessary to rectify the trade deficit and change the global trading system [28]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Ryerson reported net sales of $1,170 million, an increase of 3% compared to the first quarter, with average selling prices up 2.8% and tons shipped up fractionally [16] - Gross margin during the quarter contracted by 10 basis points to 17.9%, influenced by a higher than anticipated LIFO expense of $13 million [16] - Adjusted EBITDA excluding LIFO achieved $45 million in Q2 2025, compared to $32.8 million in the prior quarter [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - North American shipments decreased by 1.2% quarter over quarter, generating incremental market share gains, particularly in carbon long, carbon plate, and stainless long products [7] - The consumer durable sector, especially in appliances and recreational vehicles, showed relative strength, while the construction equipment sector experienced sequential volume contraction [8] - Transactional sales accounted for approximately 46% of the business, with a focus on improving service levels and lead times to gain more transactional opportunities [31][32] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North American industry volumes decreased by 2.1% relative to the first quarter, with Ryerson's performance slightly better than the industry average [7] - The company noted bright spots in subsector industries such as data centers and public infrastructure projects driven by federal investment spending [9] - The pricing environment is expected to remain supportive, leading to average selling price appreciation of 1% to 3% in the upcoming quarter [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Ryerson continues to operationalize its capital expenditures, having deployed over $650 million since 2021 to modernize its service center network [4] - The company is focused on managing non-value-added costs and precise working capital management to prepare for the next cyclical upturn [6] - Investments in processing capabilities and maintenance projects are ongoing, with a full-year capital expenditure target of $50 million [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about medium to long-term demand trends despite current industry downturn challenges, including high interest rates and tariff uncertainties [4] - The company anticipates a softening of volumes by 2% to 4% in the upcoming quarter, but expects pricing to remain supportive [10] - Management highlighted the importance of improving customer experience through operational efficiencies and better service models [26] Other Important Information - Ryerson ended the second quarter with $510 million of total debt and $479 million of net debt, resulting in a leverage ratio of 4.4 times, above the target range [13] - The company distributed $6 million in dividends during the second quarter and announced a similar cash dividend for the third quarter [14] - The Shelbyville facility is currently at about 67% of its volume ramp-up, with expectations for further improvements as investments mature [42] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the North American market share growth in Carbon Long and Plate? - Management noted that investments have improved service models and reduced frictional costs, leading to better customer experiences and market share gains [24][26] Question: What was the tax benefit impact on EPS in the second quarter? - The tax benefit was due to reduced earnings and discrete state tax credits, with an expected effective tax rate of around 25% to 26% going forward [28][29] Question: What is the current split between transactional and contractual sales? - The current split is approximately 46% transactional and 54% contractual, with a focus on increasing transactional sales through improved service [31][32] Question: How is the CapEx trend compared to the $50 million target? - Management indicated that the CapEx is a function of timing, and they remain committed to the $50 million target for the year [36] Question: What are the expectations for second half cash flow and leverage ratio? - Management expects to generate cash through the balance of the year, with the leverage ratio anticipated to move back towards the target range [48]