FOMC Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee A joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System was held in the offices of the Board of Governors on Tuesday, May 6, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. and continued on Wednesday, May 7, 2025, at 9:00 a.m.1 Review of Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communications Committee participants continued their discussions related to their review of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework, with a focus on the ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $5.7 million, down from $53 million in Q4 2024 [11] - Tons shipped in Q1 2025 were 3.8 million, a decrease from 4.1 million tons in Q4 2024 [11] - Average realization for metallurgical coal sales in Q1 was $122.08 per ton, down from $132.63 per ton in Q4 [12] - Cost of coal sales for the metallurgical segment increased to $110.34 per ton in Q1, up from $108.82 per ton in Q4 [12] - Total liquidity as of March 31, 2025, was $485.8 million, down from $519.4 million at the end of Q4 2024 [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Metallurgical coal segment realizations decreased quarter over quarter, with export met tons priced against Atlantic indices realizing $119.39 per ton in Q1, down from $122.24 in Q4 [11][12] - Incidental thermal portion of the metallurgical segment saw an increase in realization to $79.39 per ton in Q1 from $75.39 in Q4 [12] - CapEx for Q1 was $38.5 million, down from $42.7 million in Q4 [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Metallurgical coal markets remained under pressure with pricing levels deteriorating due to weak steel demand [22] - All four indices monitored by the company fell 8% or more during Q1, with the Australian Premium Low Vol Index dropping 15.5% [22] - As of May 8, 2025, the Australian premium low vol index increased to $190.5 per metric ton from its quarter-end level [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on liquidity and safeguarding its financial position amid challenging market conditions [6][9] - Adjustments to sales volume guidance were announced, with expected shipments for the year now at 15.3 million tons, down from 16.7 million tons [8] - The Kingston Wildcat project is expected to continue on schedule despite the downward revision to planned development CapEx [9][20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed a cautious outlook for the rest of the year due to weak steel demand and increased uncertainty from tariffs and trade policies [6][8] - The company has taken difficult actions, including cutting production at higher-cost operations and reducing wages across the enterprise [7][19] - Management remains optimistic about the Kingston Wildcat project, which is expected to ramp up to a full run rate of approximately 1 million tons per year by 2026 [20] Other Important Information - The company has secured an amendment to its asset-based lending facility, increasing its size from $155 million to $225 million [10] - The company did not repurchase any shares in Q1 under its share buyback program due to market conditions [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Recent cost-cutting measures and cost guidance - Management confirmed that recent cost-cutting measures have helped offset the loss of fixed cost absorption, maintaining guidance relatively firm despite production cuts [34][35] Question: CapEx reductions and growth projects - Most capital reductions are related to closures and reallocating assets, with no significant impact on future business [38][39] Question: Realization side and market conditions - In a weak market, discounting against indices is common, but not universal; some recent business concluded at a premium to the index [48] Question: Shipment guidance and domestic vs export - The reduction in shipment guidance primarily affects export tons, with confidence in maintaining overall guidance despite operational changes [46][47] Question: Opportunities in the marketplace - Management is cautious about pursuing M&A opportunities, focusing on internal projects like Kingston Wildcat for strengthening the portfolio [50][51] Question: Domestic market considerations - The domestic market is currently among the higher pricing, but management will evaluate customer needs over the summer [56][57] Question: Potential for small competitors exiting the market - There is still potential for small competitors to exit the market, with liquidity concerns affecting less well-capitalized companies [60][61]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, the company generated consolidated adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.9 billion, distributable cash flow of approximately $1.3 billion, and net income of approximately $350 million [9][39]. - Compared to Q1 2024, the results reflect higher total margins due to increased international gas prices and optimization of cargo sales [39]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved substantial completion on the first train of the Corpus Christi Stage three project ahead of schedule and within budget, with commissioning completed in March [9][10]. - The company produced and sold approximately 6 TBtu of LNG attributable to the commissioning of Train one of the Stage three project [39]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - LNG imports into Europe rose 23% year-on-year in Q1 to 36 million tons, with U.S. deliveries increasing 34% to 20.5 million tons [27]. - In contrast, China's LNG imports declined 25% year-on-year to 15.1 million tons due to stronger domestic production and increased pipeline imports [30]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding its LNG platform and developing new production capacity to meet global energy demands [7]. - The company aims to achieve first LNG from Train two by the end of the month and expects Train four to be commissioned by the end of the year [11][19]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the LNG market is characterized by heightened volatility and geopolitical risks, but remains committed to operational excellence [8][14]. - The long-term LNG demand outlook remains strong, with the company well-positioned to navigate trade dynamics and maintain its competitive edge [46][47]. Other Important Information - The company has locked in over $500 million of costs for midscale trains eight and nine, mitigating risks associated with inflation for materials and equipment [17][43]. - The company declared a dividend of $0.50 per common share for Q1 and remains committed to growing its dividend by approximately 10% annually [41]. Q&A Session Summary Question: Current contracting market and trade agreements - Management highlighted the strong position of LNG in balancing trade and the company's selective partnerships to capture market premiums [52][55]. Question: Competitive advantage in the marketplace - Management emphasized the company's focus on differentiated opportunities and strong customer relationships, avoiding commoditized competition [58]. Question: Permitting process and future projects - Management discussed the administration's focus on permitting reform and the positive progress on permits for midscale trains eight and nine [61][63]. Question: Vulnerability to LNG supply shocks in 2025 - Management acknowledged Europe's vulnerability due to low inventories and the cessation of Russian gas flows, indicating potential for increased demand for U.S. LNG [64][66]. Question: 2020 Vision capital allocation update - Management confirmed progress on the 2020 Vision, with significant capital deployed towards shareholder returns and growth initiatives [70][71]. Question: Future contracting strategy in light of global trade realignment - Management reiterated the importance of Chinese counterparties while emphasizing that U.S. volumes to China are not critical for the company's strategy [80][82].

Core Viewpoint - Skechers has agreed to be taken private by 3G Capital in a $9.4 billion deal amid challenges from US tariffs and trade policies [1][2][3] Group 1: Deal Details - The acquisition price is set at $63 per share, which represents a 28% premium over Skechers' stock price prior to the announcement [1] - Following the announcement, Skechers' shares increased by 25% to $61.61 [1] - The deal is expected to close in the third quarter of 2025 and will be financed through cash from 3G Capital and debt financing from JPMorgan Chase Bank [4] Group 2: Market Context - Skechers withdrew its annual results forecast last month due to the impact of the Trump administration's trade policies on the global economy and consumer sentiment [2][5] - The Trump administration has increased import tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%, significantly affecting Skechers as China constitutes a major source of imports for its US business [2]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Nucor generated EBITDA of $696 million and earned $0.77 of adjusted EPS in Q1 2025, despite lower results compared to prior quarters [7] - Net earnings were $156 million or $0.67 per share, including pretax charges of $29 million related to facility closures [19] - The company incurred $170 million in pre-operating and startup costs during the quarter [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The steel mill segment generated adjusted pretax earnings of $241 million, increasing approximately 43% from the prior quarter, with a volume increase of 14% [20] - The bar mill group saw shipments rise 21% compared to the prior quarter and 20% year over year [20] - The steel products segment generated adjusted pretax earnings of $37 million, with backlog growth of nearly 25% across all downstream products [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Backlogs rose over 30% in the steel mill segments and nearly 25% in steel products [15] - The company noted steady to improving demand for steel among customers engaged in rebuilding American industry [16] - The structural backlog is at the highest levels in Nucor's history, indicating strong future demand [76] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Nucor is focused on long-term growth plans, reinvesting nearly $860 million into the company, with two-thirds allocated to projects commencing operations in the next two years [7] - The company is advancing its "expand beyond" strategy and driving key acquisitions to strengthen and diversify its earnings profile [8] - Nucor aims to maintain a strong investment-grade credit quality and has raised $1 billion in senior notes to pre-fund upcoming debt maturities [26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the future, citing a robust order book and healthy demand across various sectors, including advanced manufacturing and infrastructure projects [16][78] - The company is well-positioned to capture domestic steel demand growth, with expectations for earnings to be meaningfully higher in Q2 2025 compared to Q1 [31] - Management acknowledged macroeconomic uncertainties but emphasized Nucor's strong capabilities and financial strength to navigate these challenges [17] Other Important Information - Nucor's greenhouse gas emission intensity is among the lowest in the global steel industry, and the company is advancing cleaner energy sources [18] - The company has made several acquisitions since 2022 to expand its construction products capabilities, establishing four distinct platforms with higher growth potential [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide clarity on the magnitude of startup costs for 2025? - Management indicated that startup costs for the balance of the year would be similar to previous quarters, around $160 million to $170 million [36] Question: What are the expected utilization rates for the Brandenburg mill by year-end 2025? - Management expressed confidence in achieving EBITDA positive run rates by summer and highlighted significant production achievements [39] Question: Can you provide guidance on the second quarter outlook? - Management refrained from providing specific quantitative guidance but acknowledged strong order entry rates and backlogs [50] Question: How is Nucor mitigating tariff impacts on raw materials? - Management emphasized a diversified raw material supply strategy and noted that the impact of tariffs on raw materials is minimal [54] Question: What is the impact of Section 232 on downstream products? - Management noted that the extension of Section 232 is having a positive impact, with imports dropping below 20% for the first time in years [64] Question: Can you clarify the adjusted EPS compared to guidance? - The beat in adjusted EPS was driven primarily by volume increases in the steel segment, particularly in bar and sheet products [87] Question: What contributed to the gross margin squeeze? - Management identified higher energy costs and increased scrap costs as contributing factors to the margin squeeze [90] Question: Is there any speculation for tariffs included in the $3 billion CapEx? - Management confirmed that the CapEx does not include any speculation for tariffs [94]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Global trade volumes have been holding up relatively well in April, with air freight markets re-accelerating after a slowdown [1] - A forecasted 1% year-over-year decline in global container volumes for 2025, primarily driven by declines in the Pacific region [2] - Container rates have remained steady, supported by blanked sailings on the Pacific [3] Summary by Sections Freight: Holding up for now - High-frequency freight data indicates that global trade volumes are stable, with air freight showing signs of recovery [1] Air Freight: April supported by frontloading - Air freight volumes have seen a resurgence due to frontloading, with strong indicators from Europe and Asia [1][2] Sea: April holding up, SE Asia strong - Container volumes increased by 7% year-over-year in March, with Southeast Asia showing robust trade activity [35] Shipping: Blanking supports rates for now - China-outbound container spot rates fell approximately 45% by April 2 but have stabilized since then, aided by carriers blanking sailings [3][92] Travel: Uncertainty on demand outlook - The report highlights uncertainty regarding future demand in the travel sector, although specific data is not provided [6] Airlines - No specific insights provided in the summary regarding airlines [6] Airports: Spain slowing, Zurich and Paris incrementally better - The report notes varying performance across European airports, with some showing improvement while others are slowing [6] Roads: Europe road traffic growing - European road traffic is reported to be growing, indicating a potential increase in logistics activity [6] Commodities Shipping - No specific insights provided in the summary regarding commodities shipping [6] Stable Markets, Supported by Low Capacity Growth - The report suggests that stable markets are being supported by low capacity growth, although specific data is not provided [6]