July 3, 2025 03:00 AM GMT TESTING, INSPECTION AND CERTIFICATION QUARTERLY CHARTBOOK 2Q CY25: Weaker China data, but expect continued organic resilience Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates. Priced 1st July M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H Europe MORGAN STANLEY & CO. INTERNATIONAL PLC+ Annelies Vermeulen Equity Analyst Annelies.Vermeulen@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-4367 Zach Al-Qaryooti Research Associate Zach.Al-Qaryooti@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-2400 M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview: China Property Key Points on Sales Performance - Top 100 developers' contract sales declined by **21% YoY** in June 2025, worsening from **-10% in May 2025** due to: 1. Higher base in June 2024 from policy easing in mid-May 2024 2. Lack of policy easing support [2][6] - On a **MoM basis**, contract sales increased by **17%**, lower than the average **30%** from 2020 to 2024 [2][7] - In the first half of 2025, combined sales for top 100 developers fell by **11% YoY**, compared to **-8% YoY** in May 2025 [2][6] Performance of Luxury Projects - Demand for luxury projects remained strong, exemplified by Sunac's Shanghai One Central Park selling out in **2 hours**, significantly boosting Sunac's contract sales in June 2025 [2][6] Regional Developer Performance - Regional developers (e.g., Jinmao, C&D International, Yuexiu Property, Greentown China) outperformed the sector average, focusing on tier 1 and core tier 2 cities, benefiting from resilient luxury demand [2][6] Future Outlook - Expectations for top 100 contract sales to improve YoY in **3Q25** due to a lower base effect [2][6] Secondary Market Insights - As of June 25, 2025, secondary listings in **50 cities** increased by **9.5% YoY** and **8.6% YTD**; Tier-1 cities saw a **4.4% YoY** and **5.3% YTD** increase [3][9] - Secondary transaction volume for **12 cities** increased by **4% YoY** on a 30-day moving average, down from **7% in May 2025** [3][9] Implications for Property Listings - The rise in secondary listings is attributed to: 1. Slowing secondary transactions 2. Upgraders selling existing homes to purchase luxury new homes [3][9] Developer Performance Comparison - SOE developers' contract sales in June declined by **23% YoY**, similar to the **21% YoY** decline of top 100 developers; semi-SOE and POE developers saw declines of **33%** and **11%** respectively [4][25] - Current market shares: SOE developers at **58%**, POE developers at **31%** [4][25] Sales Data Highlights - Top 100 developers' combined gross contract sales value dropped by **21% YoY** in June, compared to **-10% YoY** in May [18][20] - The combined attributable contract sales GFA decreased by **35% YoY** in June, worsening from **-20% YoY** in May [13][20] Risks and Opportunities Downside Risks - Government policies restricting demand and mortgage lending - Tight financing conditions for developers - Lower-than-expected residential growth in China's economy [31] Upside Risks - Potential policy loosening that could boost residential property sales and prices - Large-scale asset disposals at fair prices by developers to ease liquidity pressures [31]

Gambling as not only normalized behavior, but encouraged and expected behavior.Study the rapid proliferation of sports gambling and 0DTE options.Long consumer gambling apps and synthetic replacements for human connection:- Robinhood- Euphoria, Noise- Fantasy sports (including parasocial fantasy sports - aka Fantasy Top)- Synthetic intimacy - OF/related parasocial relationships- then some product that doesn’t exist yet that lets people gamble against their debts using their future physical labor as collatera ...

Tracks are the shortest they have been since the 1960s. The mentality is: “Don’t bore us, take it to the chorus” https://t.co/T4yJXG7N1f https://t.co/wAriVG9Fag ...

Core Insights - Amazon.com has shown a trading pattern stabilizing through the pandemic, fluctuating between $150 to $200 until 2022, and then between $100 to $150 during the rate cut pressures of 2022-23, indicating potential buy and exit points around these figures [1]. Company Analysis - The trading range for Amazon has shifted from $150-$200 to $100-$150, suggesting a more volatile market environment influenced by macroeconomic factors [1]. - The analysis emphasizes a strategy of buying around $100 and exiting around $150, which reflects a tactical approach to capitalizing on price fluctuations [1]. Market Trends - The focus on macroeconomic trends and corporate earnings is highlighted, indicating that these factors are critical in understanding Amazon's stock performance and potential investment opportunities [1].

Aluminium output hits a new monthly high in May, encouraged by elevated smelter margins and robust demand: Aluminium output in May rose c5% y-o-y to 3.83mt and y-t-d is up 4%, supported by the improved smelter margin given the substantial decline in raw material prices y-t-d, Alumina (-32%) and thermal coal (-20%). China aluminium inventory dropped c400kt over the past three months despite the robust supply, indicating strong downstream demand. Aluminium industry fundamentals look solid backed by the 45mt p ...

Key Takeaways Thermal coal prices remain unchanged: QHD 5500 was flat WoW at Rmb660/t as of June 27. CCI 5500 was flat WoW at Rmb615/t, and BSPI was also flat WoW at Rmb663/t. Mine-mouth prices for Shanxi Datong 5800 increased 0.4% WoW to Rmb492/t. Seaborne price unchanged: NEWC price was flat WoW at US$107/t as of June 27. June 30, 2025 07:49 AM GMT China Coal | Asia Pacific Weekly Coal Update: Mild Price Rebound Coking coal prices increased slightly: Liulin No. 4 mine-mouth price was up 0.9% WoW to Rmb565 ...

Group 1 - Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated (NYSE: HR) focuses on outpatient medical facilities, positioning itself defensively in the market, which is advantageous during macroeconomic downturns and tightening discretionary demand [1] - The company's strategy is to leverage its essential services nature to better withstand economic challenges, indicating a robust operational framework [1] Group 2 - The analyst emphasizes a long-term perspective on value creation, highlighting the importance of macroeconomic trends and corporate earnings in investment decisions [1]

“It invokes daffodils, springtime indulgence, cake and home comfort.” “The Intelligence” hears why butter yellow is the colour of the moment—and what to make of it https://t.co/k67lcUzTir 🎧 https://t.co/iqNG2wFCyp ...

Group 1 - CareTrust REIT (NYSE: CTRE) is positioned favorably compared to other healthcare REITs that are experiencing a sectoral cool-off due to reduced funding for biotech and life sciences R&D [1] - The company focuses on senior and assisted living, which remains a stable segment within the healthcare real estate investment trust market [1]